Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 21 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This act of cost-ineffective public theater by Putin is his going away present to the Western escalation managers they so desperately need to justify their failed retread of appeasement policy jobs

The cost of an IRBM/ICBM is around 10-20 times the cost of an ALCM/GLCM/SLCM
1/
...for about the same payload, with the several hundred meter CEP accuracy of a daylight of February 1945 B-17 raid.

The Putin regime put out propaganda yesterday about using the RS-26 Rubezh, a SS-20 SABER lookalike, to scare Western policy makers⬇️

2/
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It is unlikely the Putin Regime has a significant warstock of such missiles, & every RS-26 Russia fires reduces the nuclear threat to the USA.

It is military madness...but it's great for impressing dullards in media and politics like @JakeSullivan46, German Chancellor Scholz
3/
...and Western corporate media reporters talking to the arms control community at the US State Department, which are trying to keep their now excess to US Federal government needs phony baloney jobs.🙄

4/
The cost of this attack to Russia is similar to a Pershing II during the 1980s, which was around $10million USD per round.

In real 2024 dollar terms an RS-26 would cost about the same, which accounting for inflation, is more like $20M USD now.
5/
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All that cost to deliver six inaccurate conventional MIRV submunitions.

This is about terror & makes no military sense.

The sole purpose is to scare @JakeSullivan46 and maybe those in Trump's entourage who claim to be scared of a nuclear war.🤦‍♂️


6/
Let's be honest here...

...by any military standard you care to measure...

...this ICBM launch was a political desperation move by the Putin Regime aimed at Western political idiots.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Nov 22
So, the Russians are using TMM-6 assault scissor bridges to cross gaps in partially destroyed bridges?

Nothing like a medium girder bridge?

This points not only to a major gap -ahem- in Russian bridging capability, but also one in the Russian state.

Logistics & the State🧵
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I've mentioned this gap in both Russian bridging capability and Western Military Intelligence assumptions about it back in June of 2023.

2/
That video of Ukrainian PSU glide bomb strikes underlines Russia still has nothing like the partial dry bridge gap crossing capability of a medium girder bridge in the 3rd year of the war in Ukraine.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Nov 22
This line about AFU drone warheads:

>>It is especially well suited for attacking energy infrastructure.

Makes me wonder what is about to happen to the Russian power grid after Pres. Biden leaves office.🤔⬇️
Please recall DR. Celeste Wallander [ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
FOR INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS] extended rant about what the Biden Administration considered civilian versus military targets inside Russia for Ukrainian assault drones.

2/
Wallander saying Russian oil refineries are civilian targets most likely means the Biden Administration views Russian power infrastructure even more of a civilian target.

The lack of AFU grid strikes on Russia & this new power grid killing drone warhead make me go...hummm.🤔
3/3
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20
Please note:

@elonmusk has stated two launches from now there will be an attempted 2nd stage catch at Boca Chica.

That is in the 1st quarter of 2025.

The SpaceX Starship catch will be the "HMS Dreadnought" moment of the Space age.
1/3
After that event, every non-reusable orbital class rocket launcher in the world designed and built before her will be obsolete the same way every battleship built and designed before the all big gun HMS Dreadnought was made so.

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Nothing except another fully reusable rocket can compete with Starship in exactly the same way that no other battleship could compete with HMS Dreadnought, unless it was a all big gun main battery dreadnought battleship.

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Read 4 tweets
Nov 19
People haven't paid anywhere near enough attention to this development⬇️

Russian cruise missile production is now like their tank production.

Russia is living off of Cold War stockpiles that are thinner & thinner as time goes on, & harder to resuscitate.

Attrition🧵
1/
The spokesman of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Andriy Yusov has stated that Russia's military-industrial complex can produce 40-50 Kh-101 cruise missiles every month.

2/
unian.ua/weapons/skilki…
The question that @GrandpaRoy2 photo raises is exactly how much of that X-101 production rate is being assembled using recycled Kh-55/55SM missile components?

"More than zero" was confirmed from that photo...but exactly how many?

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Read 15 tweets
Nov 18
Russia seems headed towards a February 1917 moment.

1. A kilogram of potatoes in Nov 2024 is 73% more expensive than in Jan 2024.
2. Interest rates reached 21% in Oct 2024
3. Mortgage rates have risen to 28%

1/
express.co.uk/news/world/197…
The Russian railway system is now falling apart.

It's not one thing, it is everything.

The Western ball bearing were the excuse for the Russian railway system to fire its entire maintenance department in 2013.

2/
moscowtimes.ru/2024/11/15/rzh…Image
~40% of Russian railway rolling stock is Soviet era vintage.

Russia went to 100% utilization of the Trans-Siberian railway in the late summer of 2021 and has stayed there ever since.

Those rail cars were not well maintained to start with, less Western bearings.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Nov 16
They are a lot of accounts analyzing the Ukrainian War that are unable to relate lethality to accuracy to weapons effects.

The Rorschach test for this weakness is below⬇️

The idea that fragment density/velocity, overpressures & CEPs are highly non linear mean nothing to them
1/
The idea of a small warhead 6 inches from the vulnerable spot of a target has of no relevance to them.

Nor is the idea that the orientation of that small warhead makes all the difference for a nose mounted shaped charge used on a Lancet loitering munition, see X-ray below⬇️
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In World War 2 the US Army Ordnance branch and the Office of Scientific Research & Development (OSRD) did a series of systematic investigations and testing of munitions to relate lethality to accuracy to weapons effects.

These reports are available on-line.
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Read 10 tweets

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