1/ And I’m back with another thread! A lot of people have been asking: Could Europe arm Ukrainian units without U.S. support? To answer, I’ve analyzed the largest European storage bases—and here’s what I found. 
2/ Important note: All the storage sites mentioned here are publicly known, widely discussed, and covered in media reports. Nothing in this thread reveals classified or sensitive information.
3/ Let’s start with Germany. You’ve probably heard about a company formerly known as an armored vehicles dismantling facility in Rockensußra.
4/ I’ve already written in detail about this base in one of my previous threads. The facility has shifted its purpose since the invasion and now plays a role in refurbishing Marder IFVs and Leopard 1 tanks.
https://x.com/a_from_s/status/1844071234348384588
5/ As of summer 2024, there were 130+ Marder IFVs, 90+ Leopard 1 tanks, and 100+ Gepard SPAAGs. These vehicles likely originate from Zentrales Langzeitlager, or central storage bases, where vehicles are kept indoors. As you can see, they are in relatively good condition.
6/ Many armored vehicles ended up in the hands of private firms like Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft. Before the invasion, they stored up to 100 vehicles (mostly Leopard 1 tanks) outdoors. Now, there are none. However, they had far more tanks stored indoors.
7/ Let’s not forget Rheinmetall, which has significant stockpiles of Leopard 1 tanks and Marder IFVs in indoor storage. Many of these vehicles have been refurbished and sent as military aid.
8/ Now, moving to what was once the largest storage base in Italy. In 2021, up to 1000 M113 vehicles and 20 M109 SPGs were stored outdoors, with many more SPGs and Leopard 1 tanks stored inside.
9/ Before the base was reorganized, there were up to 200 Leopard 1 tanks outdoors. By early 2024, the number of M113s decreased by half, leaving around 440. They appear to be in decent condition; the mild climate in Italy helps. As for M109 SPGs, Italy retired over 200 pieces.
10/ Another site worth mentioning is Gorizia, which holds 100 Leopard 1 tanks owned by Switzerland. Although it’s unlikely these vehicles will be sent to Ukraine, it’s not entirely impossible.
11/ The UK’s main storage hub is Ashchurch Central Vehicle Depot, which houses over 6,500 vehicles of various types. Most are stored indoors, but ongoing construction has revealed glimpses of the inventory.
12/ Visible outdoors are up to 100 Warrior IFVs, 100 Cougar and Bulldog armored vehicles, 40+ Challenger 2 tanks, and 10+ AS-90 SPGs.
13/ While it’s the largest, it’s not the only one. These indoor storages make it hard to see the inventory from satellites, with exceptions like the base in Warminster, which has another 50+ MRAPs and some AS-90 SPGs.
14/ Another depot with some vehicles stored outdoors is located in Dülmen. This base mainly stores logistics vehicles, but a few dozen armored vehicles are also present.
15/ Now, France. Vehicle storage, repair, and supply in France are handled by Le Matériel, a branch of the French Land Army specialized in equipment maintenance. They operate three bases and six regiments.
16/ Most vehicles are stored indoors, some even underground. For those stored outdoors, I managed to find the following: at the 12th storage base in Nevoy, there are around 50 Leclerc, AMX-30, and AMX-10 tanks, along with 20+ AMX-30 AuF1 SPGs.
17/ Based on older satellite imagery taken before new garages were built, there are likely many more vehicles stored inside.
18/ The site in Douai has up to 200 VAB armored vehicles parked outdoors.
19/ The 13th base detachment in Saint-Astier is located underground. While the exact number of vehicles is unknown, the presence of at least a few dozen AMX-30 tanks, some Leclerc tanks, and AuF1 SPGs is confirmed.
20/ The 8th RMAT has 50+ AMX-30 tanks and up to 40 AMX-30 AuF1 SPGs visible outdoors, with undoubtedly more vehicles stored inside.
Other RMAT bases also have vehicles, though these likely belong to active units.
Other RMAT bases also have vehicles, though these likely belong to active units.
21/ Now, onto the conclusions and the question of whether it’s technically possible for Europe to arm Ukrainian brigades without U.S. support:
- Italy has already supplied M109 SPGs and still has the capacity to donate additional Leopard 1 tanks and 400+ M113 vehicles.
- Italy has already supplied M109 SPGs and still has the capacity to donate additional Leopard 1 tanks and 400+ M113 vehicles.
22/ ...Since these vehicles have been gradually decommissioned and dismantled over the years, their transfer would come at minimal cost to Italy.
- Germany can still provide 150+ Marder IFVs and at least a 100 Leopard 1 tanks and Gepard. These vehicles have been decommissioned.
- Germany can still provide 150+ Marder IFVs and at least a 100 Leopard 1 tanks and Gepard. These vehicles have been decommissioned.
23/ - France continues to send VABs and AMX-10s and could contribute 200+ AMX-30 (I know the cons) tanks and 200+ AuF1 SPGs.
- The UK will retire its Warrior IFVs in 2025, with 80 units decommissioned in the first batch. They can also send more AS-90 SPGs and armored vehicles.
- The UK will retire its Warrior IFVs in 2025, with 80 units decommissioned in the first batch. They can also send more AS-90 SPGs and armored vehicles.
24/ Most European weapons are stored indoors, unlike Russian, so this estimate is far from precise. If you factor in Europe’s significant manufacturing capabilities, the potential is clear. In conclusion, European storage bases are far from depleted, if you were wondering.
25/ That’s it for now! Huge thanks to my supporters—your encouragement keeps me going. If you enjoyed this thread, consider supporting me on Buy Me a Coffee or Patreon. buymeacoffee.com/justbecauseosi…
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