🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
The wet dream of shorts is about to turn into a nightmare for them. I will also try to do a Spaces to cover these topics tomorrow and will schedule it when I know my schedule.
The wet dream of shorts is about to turn into a nightmare for them. I will also try to do a Spaces to cover these topics tomorrow and will schedule it when I know my schedule.
🤘Key Highlights:
Sources and Uses of Funds: Analysis suggests the company may be pursuing less dilutive financing strategies, signaling long-term confidence.
Government funding, MNO prepayments, and EXIM support remain key potential catalysts.
Growing Interest: $ASTS presentations are drawing larger crowds, with institutional investors starting to take notice.
Market Sizing: The satellite market potential, especially in D2D communications, is vast, with both consumer and military applications on the horizon.
Short Seller Debunking: Recent short theses are critiqued, highlighting gaps in their assumptions and reinforcing the long-term investment thesis for $ASTS.
Technical Developments: Continued testing of BW-3 and updates on beam size efficiencies showcase $ASTS's technological edge.
Leadership Moves: CEO Abel Avellan's estate planning transaction signals confidence in $ASTS's future while aligning shareholder interests.
Policy & Regulation: Changes at the FCC, including new leadership, are likely to shape the regulatory landscape favorably for satellite communications.
Sources and Uses of Funds: Analysis suggests the company may be pursuing less dilutive financing strategies, signaling long-term confidence.
Government funding, MNO prepayments, and EXIM support remain key potential catalysts.
Growing Interest: $ASTS presentations are drawing larger crowds, with institutional investors starting to take notice.
Market Sizing: The satellite market potential, especially in D2D communications, is vast, with both consumer and military applications on the horizon.
Short Seller Debunking: Recent short theses are critiqued, highlighting gaps in their assumptions and reinforcing the long-term investment thesis for $ASTS.
Technical Developments: Continued testing of BW-3 and updates on beam size efficiencies showcase $ASTS's technological edge.
Leadership Moves: CEO Abel Avellan's estate planning transaction signals confidence in $ASTS's future while aligning shareholder interests.
Policy & Regulation: Changes at the FCC, including new leadership, are likely to shape the regulatory landscape favorably for satellite communications.
ℹ️Sources & Uses
Let's start with a review of what matters a lot for a stock like $ASTS - it's balance sheet.
What's interesting is that since earnings, the Company has not used the ATM. There are two paths I'd take if I were CFO (and I'm not out of my league to say I could be a CFO).
Path 1: Hit the ATM. Once you start using it, just get the whole thing done and be over with it. They obviously did not choose Path 1. Why?
Path 2: Do what you need to secure yourself and not gamble, but realize you have something else in store to minimize dilution. MNO pre-payments, EXIM, 5G Funds.
I thought Path 1 was the prudent path. It appears that a prudent company has chosen Path 2. The fact that Abel did his personal liquidity transaction after potentially suggests that ATM is done for the time being.
Let's start with a review of what matters a lot for a stock like $ASTS - it's balance sheet.
What's interesting is that since earnings, the Company has not used the ATM. There are two paths I'd take if I were CFO (and I'm not out of my league to say I could be a CFO).
Path 1: Hit the ATM. Once you start using it, just get the whole thing done and be over with it. They obviously did not choose Path 1. Why?
Path 2: Do what you need to secure yourself and not gamble, but realize you have something else in store to minimize dilution. MNO pre-payments, EXIM, 5G Funds.
I thought Path 1 was the prudent path. It appears that a prudent company has chosen Path 2. The fact that Abel did his personal liquidity transaction after potentially suggests that ATM is done for the time being.
🫰Simple Sources & Uses
Below is a very simple way to look at the cash needs of the Company. Shorts simplistically just felt that like any ShitCo, it would go bust.
Here, we have nuances. Let's say they are done with the ATM (which would surprise me). You can see that excluding any Block 1 cash flows and any additional prepayments or government money, they are basically financed. Because it's possible meaningful cash could be coming in from initial operations, and the near certainty that we will get additional MNO prepayments, you can see just how well off $ASTS is in the bottom scenario.
Now if we wanted to be more conservative, we could look to a constellation of 60. Again, there are no additional MNO prepayments, cash flow, etc. You can see they are around $400MM short. Now these numbers double count a bit because the cash balance already reflects some costs that are into Block 2 already, yet I'm knocking them for the full amount. Whatever. In the next year, I would not be surprised to see an EXIM facility give an advance rate of 80% against the constellation. Yeah, I said it. Then add in the MNO payments. Then add cash flow. Before you know it…brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
Below is a very simple way to look at the cash needs of the Company. Shorts simplistically just felt that like any ShitCo, it would go bust.
Here, we have nuances. Let's say they are done with the ATM (which would surprise me). You can see that excluding any Block 1 cash flows and any additional prepayments or government money, they are basically financed. Because it's possible meaningful cash could be coming in from initial operations, and the near certainty that we will get additional MNO prepayments, you can see just how well off $ASTS is in the bottom scenario.
Now if we wanted to be more conservative, we could look to a constellation of 60. Again, there are no additional MNO prepayments, cash flow, etc. You can see they are around $400MM short. Now these numbers double count a bit because the cash balance already reflects some costs that are into Block 2 already, yet I'm knocking them for the full amount. Whatever. In the next year, I would not be surprised to see an EXIM facility give an advance rate of 80% against the constellation. Yeah, I said it. Then add in the MNO payments. Then add cash flow. Before you know it…brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
🫂ASTS Hit the Circuit This Week
Presenting is a great way to spread awareness. Eventually big funds will nibble and then addicted to $ASTS just like the rest of us. It's an interesting observation that there is growing interest. People are waking up to the valuation creation we are seeing and starting to get smart. We are still so early.
x.com/spacecasetayl0…
Presenting is a great way to spread awareness. Eventually big funds will nibble and then addicted to $ASTS just like the rest of us. It's an interesting observation that there is growing interest. People are waking up to the valuation creation we are seeing and starting to get smart. We are still so early.
x.com/spacecasetayl0…
🌕Full Room
It is nice to see these rooms fill up. Space really was a nothing industry, just low-margin line items buried in defense companies. SpaceX has woken people up and the crop of public stocks are starting to generate some real wealth for people, but as importantly, are now large enough companies and liquid enough to actually matter for investors.
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
It is nice to see these rooms fill up. Space really was a nothing industry, just low-margin line items buried in defense companies. SpaceX has woken people up and the crop of public stocks are starting to generate some real wealth for people, but as importantly, are now large enough companies and liquid enough to actually matter for investors.
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
🖼️This is What They Saw
Now if you knew nothing and had no biases, which Company would look like the 800-pound gorilla. Let's skip the hypothetical and just read the FCC docket. The monster is $ASTS, according to Starlink, who requests that $ASTS stop beating on it mercilessly by using its own data against it publicly.
Now if you knew nothing and had no biases, which Company would look like the 800-pound gorilla. Let's skip the hypothetical and just read the FCC docket. The monster is $ASTS, according to Starlink, who requests that $ASTS stop beating on it mercilessly by using its own data against it publicly.
https://x.com/Michael97670912/status/1859319793486049286
🇨🇭UBS Out Again
In a guessing game, here are some guessers. With a rapid 2026 ramp of revenue, we're off to the races if these figures are remotely correct. Remember that sell-side analysts will usually get management to check assumptions so that estimates are not too far off (no one has this in their best interest). I suspect we see earlier revenues that people expect because of military.
In a guessing game, here are some guessers. With a rapid 2026 ramp of revenue, we're off to the races if these figures are remotely correct. Remember that sell-side analysts will usually get management to check assumptions so that estimates are not too far off (no one has this in their best interest). I suspect we see earlier revenues that people expect because of military.
🇩🇪DB Is Out Too
They talk about the future de-risking events. We are once again on the hunt for what I call the "unlocks." If we think the ultimate share price is $250, to throw out a number, what is the path to get there? The stock market is a lot less random than you think it is. The path to higher involves ultimately execution of a cash flow generative business model, but the market will start to discount that as milestones show progress and de-risking. The beta tests should matter since it starts to show the system at scale
They talk about the future de-risking events. We are once again on the hunt for what I call the "unlocks." If we think the ultimate share price is $250, to throw out a number, what is the path to get there? The stock market is a lot less random than you think it is. The path to higher involves ultimately execution of a cash flow generative business model, but the market will start to discount that as milestones show progress and de-risking. The beta tests should matter since it starts to show the system at scale
🧪Testing Continues
An extension is filed for BW-3. What are they doing up there? I think we know.
An extension is filed for BW-3. What are they doing up there? I think we know.
https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/1859669885854548243?s=61&t=A0iuFRBcW53DZvUrwsGTMg
🍰Short Thesis
Are you special? No. That's why you are not in Value Investors Club, or VIC. There was a short thesis posted on VIC, so let's go through it. VIC was huge back in the mid-2000s (I was on it and won best idea once…and then my stock went to zero, which tells you about what 'winning' can mean). Let's start with the statement that "in the private markets, it would be worth less than $1bn). Homie, what? Did this guy get the memo that SpaceX is "worth $250bn." Anduril is valued at $14BN. I looked at True Anomaly but forget the valuation, but it was rich (not yet a unicorn, but a simple commodity satellite manufacturer in a small market). I actually am a private market guy due to a strange twist of fate, and the one thing I can tell you is that if $ASTS were private, the valuation would be insane. But let's stop throwing unsupportable stones. I trust public market valuations far more than private valuations, and I say that as a guy who sets private market valuations for a living
Are you special? No. That's why you are not in Value Investors Club, or VIC. There was a short thesis posted on VIC, so let's go through it. VIC was huge back in the mid-2000s (I was on it and won best idea once…and then my stock went to zero, which tells you about what 'winning' can mean). Let's start with the statement that "in the private markets, it would be worth less than $1bn). Homie, what? Did this guy get the memo that SpaceX is "worth $250bn." Anduril is valued at $14BN. I looked at True Anomaly but forget the valuation, but it was rich (not yet a unicorn, but a simple commodity satellite manufacturer in a small market). I actually am a private market guy due to a strange twist of fate, and the one thing I can tell you is that if $ASTS were private, the valuation would be insane. But let's stop throwing unsupportable stones. I trust public market valuations far more than private valuations, and I say that as a guy who sets private market valuations for a living
🍰Short Thesis
The next leg of the short are these points. It's expensive? Sure, it's expensive relative to a cheeseburger. What point is this guy trying to make? "Expensive" when allocating capital needs to be relative to return. So his point is not grounded on the relative project economics, but simply that it costs more money than $ASTS presently has. First of all, he has no projection of future sources and uses. We talked about that above. Next he says it's a small market. Literally as SpaceX says that it's a huge market and it's fixed broadband business has 4-5MM subs and growing. Then he says it's "years away" from revenue. Dog years? $ASTS is going to start generating tens of millions of revenue shortly.
The next leg of the short are these points. It's expensive? Sure, it's expensive relative to a cheeseburger. What point is this guy trying to make? "Expensive" when allocating capital needs to be relative to return. So his point is not grounded on the relative project economics, but simply that it costs more money than $ASTS presently has. First of all, he has no projection of future sources and uses. We talked about that above. Next he says it's a small market. Literally as SpaceX says that it's a huge market and it's fixed broadband business has 4-5MM subs and growing. Then he says it's "years away" from revenue. Dog years? $ASTS is going to start generating tens of millions of revenue shortly.
🍰Short Thesis
As SpaceMob often says, if you do 5 minutes of DD you short the stock. And this guy has. If you do 1 hr of DD, you mortgage your house and go on margin to buy $ASTS stock. Now let me just say that upon personal reflection, while I did in fact do this…please don't. Do as I say, not as I do. There will always be another great investment opportunity and while I'm excited about $ASTS, please remember to always invest thinking that tomorrow the stock could randomly be down 90% and make sure you don't create excessive personal stress, financial risk, or marital issues because of stock volatility. We have looked at the competition and it's all in my document. I guess $ASTS is doomed because $TMUS is giving it away for free, which implies that SpaceX is giving $TMUS free satellites and free launch. Perhaps something does not add up with that equation?
As SpaceMob often says, if you do 5 minutes of DD you short the stock. And this guy has. If you do 1 hr of DD, you mortgage your house and go on margin to buy $ASTS stock. Now let me just say that upon personal reflection, while I did in fact do this…please don't. Do as I say, not as I do. There will always be another great investment opportunity and while I'm excited about $ASTS, please remember to always invest thinking that tomorrow the stock could randomly be down 90% and make sure you don't create excessive personal stress, financial risk, or marital issues because of stock volatility. We have looked at the competition and it's all in my document. I guess $ASTS is doomed because $TMUS is giving it away for free, which implies that SpaceX is giving $TMUS free satellites and free launch. Perhaps something does not add up with that equation?
🍰Short Thesis
The summary conclusion is this investor is below.
The summary conclusion is this investor is below.
🌠Market Sizing According to Starlink
SpaceX sees a $1tr opportunity for Starlink. This is always what's fun when shorts dismiss $ASTS because of the market. Sure, in the Village you have service. Way to think beyond the Hudson, guys. Meanwhile, SpaceX is talking about a $1tn opportunity and the US Government is adding $10bn at a clip to its military only deal for proliferated LEO systems.
x.com/WR4NYGov/statu…
SpaceX sees a $1tr opportunity for Starlink. This is always what's fun when shorts dismiss $ASTS because of the market. Sure, in the Village you have service. Way to think beyond the Hudson, guys. Meanwhile, SpaceX is talking about a $1tn opportunity and the US Government is adding $10bn at a clip to its military only deal for proliferated LEO systems.
x.com/WR4NYGov/statu…
🥣Market Size
Developing markets need connectivity. But but but, they are poor? Yes, but they are many. I still bet that the monetization in the US is incredible because the ARPU is high. The value of a person making $250K+ per year having mobile connectivity is worth a lot. Granted in India, you might get 1,000 additional customers for each US customer. Guess what's beautiful - that capacity does not compete with itself. Each national carrier can only use the capacity during the fly over of its territory. That is its avoided cost math. The beauty of a multi-tenant model like $ASTS is that you can charge 99% of the avoided cost of that MNO (assuming they had the R&D acumen to develop their own solution - they don't), and get that multiplied by X number of customers around the world who share that latitudinal shell.
x.com/TheodorusAtheo…
Developing markets need connectivity. But but but, they are poor? Yes, but they are many. I still bet that the monetization in the US is incredible because the ARPU is high. The value of a person making $250K+ per year having mobile connectivity is worth a lot. Granted in India, you might get 1,000 additional customers for each US customer. Guess what's beautiful - that capacity does not compete with itself. Each national carrier can only use the capacity during the fly over of its territory. That is its avoided cost math. The beauty of a multi-tenant model like $ASTS is that you can charge 99% of the avoided cost of that MNO (assuming they had the R&D acumen to develop their own solution - they don't), and get that multiplied by X number of customers around the world who share that latitudinal shell.
x.com/TheodorusAtheo…
🐶Years Away from Revenue Concern
Think about the short's surprise when tens of millions of government revenue falls from the sky on $ASTS prior to actual consumer monetization. Even so, meaningful revenue should hit in 2025 or early 2026 at the latest. "Years away" for a dog. Months away for us. I might have a strong view of something not commonly expected about how the government revenue is going to hit.
Think about the short's surprise when tens of millions of government revenue falls from the sky on $ASTS prior to actual consumer monetization. Even so, meaningful revenue should hit in 2025 or early 2026 at the latest. "Years away" for a dog. Months away for us. I might have a strong view of something not commonly expected about how the government revenue is going to hit.
⚔️Competition
We have talked for ages about competition. We can go through them one by one or you can just read my DD document. Maybe I'll just wax poetic on this during my Spaces
We have talked for ages about competition. We can go through them one by one or you can just read my DD document. Maybe I'll just wax poetic on this during my Spaces
⬛️Revenue Splits
Part of the thesis is that $ASTS is a black box. Yeah, duh. They literally post pictures of it as a black box.
As it relates to the business model, while the Company isn't likely to 8K it's commercial agreements (too confidential), they do tell you how the deals are going to work in broad terms.
xcerpt of Vodafone disclosure from latest 10Q: "The Vodafone Commercial Agreements are to include mutual exclusivity, conditioned upon Vodafone making the SpaceMobile Service available to all of its customers and certain promotional efforts, within all Vodafone markets for five years commencing on the launch of a commercial service in all of the Vodafone markets; preferential commercial terms in Vodafone partner markets; 50/50 revenue share for the SpaceMobile Service in Vodafone exclusivity markets; and the procurement, building and operating of mobile network ground stations at a mutually agreed cost by Vodafone. No payments have been made to date between AST LLC and Vodafone pursuant to the anticipated Vodafone Commercial Agreements. Vodafone has the right to designate one individual to the Company’s Board of Directors. Currently, Vodafone’s designee is Luke Ibbetson, Head of Group Research & Development, Vodafone. "
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
Part of the thesis is that $ASTS is a black box. Yeah, duh. They literally post pictures of it as a black box.
As it relates to the business model, while the Company isn't likely to 8K it's commercial agreements (too confidential), they do tell you how the deals are going to work in broad terms.
xcerpt of Vodafone disclosure from latest 10Q: "The Vodafone Commercial Agreements are to include mutual exclusivity, conditioned upon Vodafone making the SpaceMobile Service available to all of its customers and certain promotional efforts, within all Vodafone markets for five years commencing on the launch of a commercial service in all of the Vodafone markets; preferential commercial terms in Vodafone partner markets; 50/50 revenue share for the SpaceMobile Service in Vodafone exclusivity markets; and the procurement, building and operating of mobile network ground stations at a mutually agreed cost by Vodafone. No payments have been made to date between AST LLC and Vodafone pursuant to the anticipated Vodafone Commercial Agreements. Vodafone has the right to designate one individual to the Company’s Board of Directors. Currently, Vodafone’s designee is Luke Ibbetson, Head of Group Research & Development, Vodafone. "
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
🍀But Then a Warrior Arrived
#Spacemob, meet Ryan O’Connor. He takes things with first swinging. Don't fight Irish people. This it the same guy who ratio'd people on VIC who were short $TSLA in 2017 and simply posted "lol' at the end of a bunch of nasty comments that shorts left him when he tried to explain to them that $TSLA was not bankrupt. Maybe lightening will strike twice.
x.com/kingtutcap/sta…
#Spacemob, meet Ryan O’Connor. He takes things with first swinging. Don't fight Irish people. This it the same guy who ratio'd people on VIC who were short $TSLA in 2017 and simply posted "lol' at the end of a bunch of nasty comments that shorts left him when he tried to explain to them that $TSLA was not bankrupt. Maybe lightening will strike twice.
x.com/kingtutcap/sta…
🥇The Conveyer Belt of Value
This is a cool graphic and really summarizes the journey we have. It's all about unlocks. This is also the assassination plan of the shorts. I tried taking a stab at this with the if/unless framework I wrote about. As you flip from "if" to "unless" there is a lower discount rate on a given valuation input. That causes a re-rating. Some re-ratings are large, some are small. Another cool case study is the pattern applied to Tesla.
x.com/Only6inches/st…
This is a cool graphic and really summarizes the journey we have. It's all about unlocks. This is also the assassination plan of the shorts. I tried taking a stab at this with the if/unless framework I wrote about. As you flip from "if" to "unless" there is a lower discount rate on a given valuation input. That causes a re-rating. Some re-ratings are large, some are small. Another cool case study is the pattern applied to Tesla.
x.com/Only6inches/st…
💎The Scarcity Trade
This is something I have thought about for four years. On one hand the reason why satellites have been a tough business historical is they are fixed cost assets that have huge operating leverage. If there is oversupply or difficulty selling capacity, you get splattered. I want to find businesses with natural points of scarcity. Why has American Tower compounded? Scarcity. They own real estate and there are natural limits to how many towers people will allow. This gives them the ability to have a multi-tenant business model. They build a tower against the demand of one Telco and then get to split the avoided cost of building 2-3 towers by allowing multiple carriers to hang radios on their real estate. While $ASTS has many moats - commercial, regulatory, and technology - the moat I’ve thought a lot about is just literal real estate scarcity. I’ve addressed this point on how it plays into the regulatory moat: the FCC won’t approve a speculative constellation because it is not in the public’s interest. As LEO gets built-out, there is a point where the orbital slots (which are first come, first serve) have scarcity value. At that point, there ends up being the equivalent of “air rights” that price against the value of margin demand.
x.com/wood_james8319…
This is something I have thought about for four years. On one hand the reason why satellites have been a tough business historical is they are fixed cost assets that have huge operating leverage. If there is oversupply or difficulty selling capacity, you get splattered. I want to find businesses with natural points of scarcity. Why has American Tower compounded? Scarcity. They own real estate and there are natural limits to how many towers people will allow. This gives them the ability to have a multi-tenant business model. They build a tower against the demand of one Telco and then get to split the avoided cost of building 2-3 towers by allowing multiple carriers to hang radios on their real estate. While $ASTS has many moats - commercial, regulatory, and technology - the moat I’ve thought a lot about is just literal real estate scarcity. I’ve addressed this point on how it plays into the regulatory moat: the FCC won’t approve a speculative constellation because it is not in the public’s interest. As LEO gets built-out, there is a point where the orbital slots (which are first come, first serve) have scarcity value. At that point, there ends up being the equivalent of “air rights” that price against the value of margin demand.
x.com/wood_james8319…
👨👨👦Abel Estate Planning
Now we know today's price move was just technicals.
Abel did some of the very same estate planning many of us have looked into and collared a very small portion of his stock (3% of his holdings). $45MM to $85MM of liquidity down the line, which it a pretty modest amount all things considered given the notional value of his position. Once collared, you do not have a taxable event but you also have an asset that is easy to borrow against. Abel got an upfront $42MM loan against the hedged position. It's effectively a way to pay himself while pushing off a taxable event into 2026 when any Trump tax cuts would be set to begin.
When you collar a stock, you are effectively buying a put (short deltas) and selling a call (short deltas). The dealer is then long the deltas and has to hedge it by shorting the corresponding amount of stock (determined by the net deltas of the trade). A variable pre-paid forward is a bilateral over-the-counter (OTC) contract that allows investors to monetize their stock position by receiving an upfront cash advance with downside protection in exchange for delivery of a variable number of shares or cash in the future. It is typically used for investors who have a specific liquidity need or want to diversify their balance sheet while deferring a taxable event. The structure is customizable and may also include selling upside appreciation potential depending on the client situation.
That puts pressure in the market as the dealer executes the trade. A reasonable estate planning move to help fund a family office in the out years. $ASTS
It's notable that Abel waited until everything was reasonable de-risked before taking any liquidity. Block 1 is operational and regulatory permits likely received / to be received. Launch secured. He did everything possible to treat us as partners and avoid the perception of a rug-pull.
Now we know today's price move was just technicals.
Abel did some of the very same estate planning many of us have looked into and collared a very small portion of his stock (3% of his holdings). $45MM to $85MM of liquidity down the line, which it a pretty modest amount all things considered given the notional value of his position. Once collared, you do not have a taxable event but you also have an asset that is easy to borrow against. Abel got an upfront $42MM loan against the hedged position. It's effectively a way to pay himself while pushing off a taxable event into 2026 when any Trump tax cuts would be set to begin.
When you collar a stock, you are effectively buying a put (short deltas) and selling a call (short deltas). The dealer is then long the deltas and has to hedge it by shorting the corresponding amount of stock (determined by the net deltas of the trade). A variable pre-paid forward is a bilateral over-the-counter (OTC) contract that allows investors to monetize their stock position by receiving an upfront cash advance with downside protection in exchange for delivery of a variable number of shares or cash in the future. It is typically used for investors who have a specific liquidity need or want to diversify their balance sheet while deferring a taxable event. The structure is customizable and may also include selling upside appreciation potential depending on the client situation.
That puts pressure in the market as the dealer executes the trade. A reasonable estate planning move to help fund a family office in the out years. $ASTS
It's notable that Abel waited until everything was reasonable de-risked before taking any liquidity. Block 1 is operational and regulatory permits likely received / to be received. Launch secured. He did everything possible to treat us as partners and avoid the perception of a rug-pull.
🏄♂️KoLlArS wITh KOOK
So we talked about a collar. And now let's actually see what that looks like. If you traded on the full bid-ask spread, the trade would have been a net credit (cash inflow) for Abel. Because of his size, the banks would have ripped his face off b/c of the market impact to get the trade on. We saw that market impact today (10%). So they would have charged him a big spread to take the risk and then offlay the risk into the market. So what is that risk? It's the deltas. Delta-adjusted (option math), those 2.5MM shares he collared equated to the equivalent of 2MM shares the dealer had to hedge.
So what else could he have done? He could have sold the shares outright. He could have also just taken a margin loan. Now this is a slippery slope and I'm glad he didn't do it. While the amount is small against his gross position, it opens up a dangerous path. It shows a type of risk taking in a CEO and that itself can be a red flag. It also starts to open up knock out risk where people could attack the stock knowing if they hit it enough, the CEO is forced to get liquidated. Now on $40mm, this isn't a big concern. But again, it's a slippery slope. It's also better he sell his own shares instead of take from the company with huge dilutive options grants or large cash payments. All in all, Abel is acting like an owner operator and treating shareholders like gold.
So we talked about a collar. And now let's actually see what that looks like. If you traded on the full bid-ask spread, the trade would have been a net credit (cash inflow) for Abel. Because of his size, the banks would have ripped his face off b/c of the market impact to get the trade on. We saw that market impact today (10%). So they would have charged him a big spread to take the risk and then offlay the risk into the market. So what is that risk? It's the deltas. Delta-adjusted (option math), those 2.5MM shares he collared equated to the equivalent of 2MM shares the dealer had to hedge.
So what else could he have done? He could have sold the shares outright. He could have also just taken a margin loan. Now this is a slippery slope and I'm glad he didn't do it. While the amount is small against his gross position, it opens up a dangerous path. It shows a type of risk taking in a CEO and that itself can be a red flag. It also starts to open up knock out risk where people could attack the stock knowing if they hit it enough, the CEO is forced to get liquidated. Now on $40mm, this isn't a big concern. But again, it's a slippery slope. It's also better he sell his own shares instead of take from the company with huge dilutive options grants or large cash payments. All in all, Abel is acting like an owner operator and treating shareholders like gold.
👨🏫But Don't Ask Me, Ask A Professor
Mak Attack is back. Mak validates the above.
Mak Attack is back. Mak validates the above.
https://x.com/KevinLMak/status/1859440740381691940
👨🏫Mak Attack
Kevin Mak ups his position using his covered call strategy
Kevin Mak ups his position using his covered call strategy
https://x.com/KevinLMak/status/1858575053618561435
🧪AT&T and VZ STA Breakdown
CatSE deciphers some intel from the filings around beam sizes, including we can form a beam of just 12 km I diameter vs. Starlink's 40 km. This implies a beam that is 11x larger than $ASTS''s. This has implications for spectrum reuse. For Starlink that big circle uses a slice of spectrum spread across all the people in that big circle. There is only so much bandwidth per beam, and thus one beam divided by a lot of people is less capacity per person. If that bandwidth can be aimed in many smaller beams, those people are therefore sharing less spectrum among themselves
x.com/CatSE___ApeX__…
CatSE deciphers some intel from the filings around beam sizes, including we can form a beam of just 12 km I diameter vs. Starlink's 40 km. This implies a beam that is 11x larger than $ASTS''s. This has implications for spectrum reuse. For Starlink that big circle uses a slice of spectrum spread across all the people in that big circle. There is only so much bandwidth per beam, and thus one beam divided by a lot of people is less capacity per person. If that bandwidth can be aimed in many smaller beams, those people are therefore sharing less spectrum among themselves
x.com/CatSE___ApeX__…
🇸🇦Saudi Keeps Talking about D2D
For all their interest, when are we going to see something? Sure sounds topical for them.
For all their interest, when are we going to see something? Sure sounds topical for them.
https://x.com/NeoSpaceGroup/status/1859537247420248295
🪖PLEO Opportunity
I think this will be the tale for all data services. Offer it, people will find a need for it. Demand will be crazy.
"We are burning through our procurement contract ceiling really quickly,” she said. “So, we are working with DISA right now to increase that ceiling well into the billions. We do view this contract as being a workhorse, and the demand for it is off the charts.”
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
I think this will be the tale for all data services. Offer it, people will find a need for it. Demand will be crazy.
"We are burning through our procurement contract ceiling really quickly,” she said. “So, we are working with DISA right now to increase that ceiling well into the billions. We do view this contract as being a workhorse, and the demand for it is off the charts.”
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
🇺🇸Sole Source Supplier?
The government is not going to want a sole source supplier. The opportunity for $ASTS is large
“We are also concerned that SpaceX’s Starlink is the only commercial service available to offer global broadband connectivity in low-Earth orbit,” the senators wrote. “A robust and competitive space industrial base with multiple providers is the only way the Department can ensure there are options to maintain access to this critical capability in the event of a crisis or conflict.”
x.com/biggustheroman…
The government is not going to want a sole source supplier. The opportunity for $ASTS is large
“We are also concerned that SpaceX’s Starlink is the only commercial service available to offer global broadband connectivity in low-Earth orbit,” the senators wrote. “A robust and competitive space industrial base with multiple providers is the only way the Department can ensure there are options to maintain access to this critical capability in the event of a crisis or conflict.”
x.com/biggustheroman…
🛏️Quilty Is Out With More
I got 99 problems but market size ain't one.
I got 99 problems but market size ain't one.
https://x.com/quiltyspace/status/1858622351937544443?s=61&t=A0iuFRBcW53DZvUrwsGTMg
🇮🇳We Launching
Get ready for India
Get ready for India
https://x.com/nrsono/status/1859378564891566174?s=61&t=A0iuFRBcW53DZvUrwsGTMg
📤Rosenworcel Out
Rosenworcel is out soon. We'll see the new composition of the FCC. She did a great job leading us to the SCS rules.
Rosenworcel is out soon. We'll see the new composition of the FCC. She did a great job leading us to the SCS rules.
https://x.com/intalia51/status/1859629098076946549
⚡️Chairman Carr
It is no surprise that Carr gets the top job. He's following the party line by going back to hardcore business and focused on American innovation and stopping waste. When I reviewed his policy positions, we have two sides of the barbell. Thank the good lord he is in favor of SCS. That's consistent with innovation and improving the lives of Americans. On the flip side, he was against the FCC's 5G Fund, but for valid reasons. In light of Biden's $42BN broadband boondoggle, Carr wants to make sure everyone has taken stock of exactly where we are with broadband coverage before handing out more money. While the 5G Fund was approved in August 2024, Carr will have the ability to modify it if there is a majority vote. Until the new Chairman is appointed, the FCC is still controlled by Democrats.
x.com/BrendanCarrFCC…
x.com/brendancarrfcc…
It is no surprise that Carr gets the top job. He's following the party line by going back to hardcore business and focused on American innovation and stopping waste. When I reviewed his policy positions, we have two sides of the barbell. Thank the good lord he is in favor of SCS. That's consistent with innovation and improving the lives of Americans. On the flip side, he was against the FCC's 5G Fund, but for valid reasons. In light of Biden's $42BN broadband boondoggle, Carr wants to make sure everyone has taken stock of exactly where we are with broadband coverage before handing out more money. While the 5G Fund was approved in August 2024, Carr will have the ability to modify it if there is a majority vote. Until the new Chairman is appointed, the FCC is still controlled by Democrats.
x.com/BrendanCarrFCC…
x.com/brendancarrfcc…
💰5G Fund
The 5G Fund order passed with one dissention. Commissioner Brendan Carr believes it is premature to start the 5G Fund before solving problems the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) is experiencing with Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program implementation. Congress passed the BEAD program in 2022, but NTIA working through the states is not likely to distribute any funding for broadband projects until late 2025 or perhaps 2026. Many blame regulatory complexities written into the program for slow progress.
Carr called for the federal government to fix the “fundamental flaws” with BEAD and then synchronize distribution of BEAD and the 5G Fund. “Assuming we get BEAD back on the rails, lining up the two programs’ timelines is the only way to ensure that they work with—rather than against—each other,” he said in a statement.
federalregister.gov/documents/2024…
The 5G Fund order passed with one dissention. Commissioner Brendan Carr believes it is premature to start the 5G Fund before solving problems the Commerce Department’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) is experiencing with Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program implementation. Congress passed the BEAD program in 2022, but NTIA working through the states is not likely to distribute any funding for broadband projects until late 2025 or perhaps 2026. Many blame regulatory complexities written into the program for slow progress.
Carr called for the federal government to fix the “fundamental flaws” with BEAD and then synchronize distribution of BEAD and the 5G Fund. “Assuming we get BEAD back on the rails, lining up the two programs’ timelines is the only way to ensure that they work with—rather than against—each other,” he said in a statement.
federalregister.gov/documents/2024…
🗳️5G Fund Voting
An important thing to note is that Nathan Simington, a Republican, voted for the 5G Fund, which allowed the 5G Fund to be called a “bipartisan vote.” None of the FCC documents released report and order, and four statements — disclosed Simington's vote by name, interestingly.
policyband.com/p/dc-memo-carr…
An important thing to note is that Nathan Simington, a Republican, voted for the 5G Fund, which allowed the 5G Fund to be called a “bipartisan vote.” None of the FCC documents released report and order, and four statements — disclosed Simington's vote by name, interestingly.
policyband.com/p/dc-memo-carr…
📰WSJ on Brendan Carr
Liberals say that Mr. Carr plans to do Mr. Musk’s bidding because he has called for accelerating licensing for satellites and preventing other businesses from interfering in its low-earth orbit. That’s called doing the FCC’s job. Mr. Carr also wants to roll back regulatory overreaches and free up more broadband spectrum. Ms. Rosenworcel has made the latter a low priority. We'll see the impact of this. Will Starlink get its own spectrum, if it can? My belief is that Elon cannot partner and will ultimately go DTC if he can. Once that card is shown, I think you can say goodbye to any MNO partnerships (including $TMUS).
wsj.com/opinion/brenda…
Liberals say that Mr. Carr plans to do Mr. Musk’s bidding because he has called for accelerating licensing for satellites and preventing other businesses from interfering in its low-earth orbit. That’s called doing the FCC’s job. Mr. Carr also wants to roll back regulatory overreaches and free up more broadband spectrum. Ms. Rosenworcel has made the latter a low priority. We'll see the impact of this. Will Starlink get its own spectrum, if it can? My belief is that Elon cannot partner and will ultimately go DTC if he can. Once that card is shown, I think you can say goodbye to any MNO partnerships (including $TMUS).
wsj.com/opinion/brenda…
🌠Starlink
Now it's time for our weekly installment of "Starlink Smackdown." Where is the fun in life if we're not tribal? Remember Starlink trying to blame foreign interference on $ASTS because European telecoms were correctly worried about interference? Ooops. Starlink's only US customer is a German-owned telecom.
Now it's time for our weekly installment of "Starlink Smackdown." Where is the fun in life if we're not tribal? Remember Starlink trying to blame foreign interference on $ASTS because European telecoms were correctly worried about interference? Ooops. Starlink's only US customer is a German-owned telecom.
https://x.com/mikeddano/status/1859008043322929492
🚒FirstNet Opportunity
More examples of how much $ASTS will help first responders. Below is a FirstNet case study highlighting an issue when a fire knocked out communications. Above is one of the many notes I get from people in my DM’s explaining real world use cases they and their co-workers have for the technology.
More examples of how much $ASTS will help first responders. Below is a FirstNet case study highlighting an issue when a fire knocked out communications. Above is one of the many notes I get from people in my DM’s explaining real world use cases they and their co-workers have for the technology.
https://x.com/firstnetgov/status/1858960687240015934?s=61&t=A0iuFRBcW53DZvUrwsGTMg
🖍️Anpanman Needs a Hobby
After owning $ASTS for 4 years, I find it hard to believe it's only now that we have such incredible emoji art. What took us so long?
After owning $ASTS for 4 years, I find it hard to believe it's only now that we have such incredible emoji art. What took us so long?
https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/1858715722815356937
🏛️Blue Origin Is Getting Governmented Up
The Government is spreading business to Blue Origin and SpaceX to help create a competitive market. Good luck to both. Coke and Pepsi.
The Government is spreading business to Blue Origin and SpaceX to help create a competitive market. Good luck to both. Coke and Pepsi.
https://x.com/NASAArtemis/status/1859266039181160463
💙Blue Origin Goes Vertical
The static fire test should be any day now. Watch live on the other link
x.com/blueorigin/sta…
x.com/Harry__Strange…
The static fire test should be any day now. Watch live on the other link
x.com/blueorigin/sta…
x.com/Harry__Strange…
🇪🇺But Wait, for $19.99, You Can Have More Launch
Proving Europe is always keeping true to their August vacations, the ESA decides to study the most obvious innovation in rocketry since realizing the earth was not flat: reusable rockets. Their study is a monster rocket - 60 tons. This is bigger than New Glenn. If this goes forward, it's just another sign that a ton of capacity will be set to serve the market. Short launch is the place to be. It's the equivalent of the iPhone moment that enabled so much innovation.
europeanspaceflight.com/esa-publishes-…
Proving Europe is always keeping true to their August vacations, the ESA decides to study the most obvious innovation in rocketry since realizing the earth was not flat: reusable rockets. Their study is a monster rocket - 60 tons. This is bigger than New Glenn. If this goes forward, it's just another sign that a ton of capacity will be set to serve the market. Short launch is the place to be. It's the equivalent of the iPhone moment that enabled so much innovation.
europeanspaceflight.com/esa-publishes-…
🫦Speaking of Vanity
This is crazy. For an industrial market that should be all about performance, I can't believe they did a design change to make it look cool. Who cares about what your rocket looks like. I'll just file this here and we can revisit later and see what history says about vanity in rocket design. It seems odd to me. This is not a consumer market, unless you are selling stock instead of selling rockets. Elon has a history of this as well, admittedly. Why make something that doesn't look cool? I get the logic. I would think when it comes to space, though - physics, no matter how ugly, would always win. This is why I'm a peasant.
x.com/mottbox_/statu…
This is crazy. For an industrial market that should be all about performance, I can't believe they did a design change to make it look cool. Who cares about what your rocket looks like. I'll just file this here and we can revisit later and see what history says about vanity in rocket design. It seems odd to me. This is not a consumer market, unless you are selling stock instead of selling rockets. Elon has a history of this as well, admittedly. Why make something that doesn't look cool? I get the logic. I would think when it comes to space, though - physics, no matter how ugly, would always win. This is why I'm a peasant.
x.com/mottbox_/statu…
🥷Spacemob on the Prowl
It will be an interesting conversation the day this Spacemob member has a conversation with an officer of the peace, but until then, this is the commitment level of this crew
It will be an interesting conversation the day this Spacemob member has a conversation with an officer of the peace, but until then, this is the commitment level of this crew
https://x.com/jamesdavidny/status/1859026610516586580?s=61&t=A0iuFRBcW53DZvUrwsGTMg
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