René Duba Profile picture
Nov 24, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
🧵
What is the "Russian Imperial Mindset"?

The 'Russian imperial mindset' is very strongly present in many Russians. It is not a 'stand-alone' kind of thing. Jung might have described it as a 'complex' accompanied by a few other peculiarities.

Here's a list:
[..]

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Elements of the Russian Imperial Mindset:
- a sense of how big Russia is
- an assumption of invincibllity, based on sheer size
- that the size of Russia needs a strongman to be governed
- that this requires a hierarchy with the strongman at the top holding absolute power

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- that only one law applies to those lower in the hierarchy: loyalty (and obedience) or death
- that resistance is futile
- that individuals are dispensible/disposable
- individuals lower in the hierarchy deserve contempt

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- social relations are governed by contempt, loyalty, showing off richess and power-ralations over morality

- individual drive is governed by attempting perfection (like high notes in education), rising in the hierarchy or acquiring richess, while...

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- inherent cruelty in Russian society is directly related to contempt for those who are (relatively) failing in terms of social or academic success or perceived lack of loyalty or obedience.

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- the combination of hierarchy, required loyalty and the drive to acquire richess causes excesses of exploitation and corruption of those lower in the hierarchy with contempt serving as lubricant

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- at any level, except at the highest position, you may be treated as a doormat at which point excess vodka is the solution.

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- Bragging, showing off richess, social/hierarchical contempt, loyalty as a driving social force and shielding oneself from blame is so pervasive in Russian society that they tend not to be aware that it may not be that pervasive elsewhere.

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More from @ReneDuba

Dec 30, 2024
How does Russia's 'small step' advance on the battlefield actually work?

How do the pieces of the puzzle fit together?
I will describe the essence here.

We all heard that Russia changed its 'meat grinder' tactics - but why did the number of casualties go up?

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It took an interview with a defected Russian soldier and some Telegram messages to make the pieces fit together.

The general background picture is firstly that Russia is in a 'make do' situation: this is the best they can do with their present weapons and men.

Meaning?

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Meaning, they're maxed out.
It also means that Russia can be pushed over the edge.

Secondly, Putin conveys to his subjects and believers that he is convinced he will win this war. In reality, he cannot pull out (which in itself would be wise). It would be political suicide.

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Read 9 tweets
Dec 17, 2024
Reality

Russia is sliding downwards in every sense: their stocks of weapons are almost empty, production doesn't keep up, the normal economy goes downhill fast, the war economy is paid for with money they don't have.

Should the world be in a hurry to negotiate peace?

No.

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Military aid for Ukraine is picking up. The West has increased its production of shells. More weapons of every kind are on the way. Ukraine's own weapons inventions prove very effective.

Yes, countering glide bombs and meat wave tactics are still a challenge to be resolved.

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This study suggests three approaches against Russian glide bombs.

3/

rand.org/pubs/commentar…
Read 9 tweets
Nov 29, 2024
The Ruble doesn't find support. It entered into a fee fall. Now Russia has stopped trading. This means that the exchange rate will just SEEM to have stabilised, but that's not the case. The Ruble has become a 'black market only' currency.

What's a free fall?

1/
pic: Moscow Image
It means the value goes down and nothing stabilises it, nothing moves it up. It means the Ruble is not supported anymore. Not by foreign buyers who need Rubles to buy Russian exports. And not by short term measures of the Russian Central Bank.

For instance [..]

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[..] the Russian Central Bank buying Rubles with Dollars. Bank president Nabiullina doesn't anymore.

Maybe the coffers are empty, maybe she just decided that throwing good money after a collapsing Ruble makes no sense.

So what did they do?

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Read 8 tweets
Nov 28, 2024
Normally, what is produced continues to play a further role in the economy. Industry makes an electric drill. A builder makes a shop with it. The shop sells boots. Farmers buy the boots and produces butter. Value makes more value.

War production does not make such a chain.

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In war, governments pay to produce bombs.
They explode and the value is gone.

Especially true in a war of attrition. The government makes dead-end-payments.

Economists do not make this distinction, they say Russia's GDP last year was great.

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Why is this a mistake?

It's money gone and you can foresee that it will have no positive result because of what the war looks like.

You can see that other production suffers. No boots, no butter.

Can't bombs be seen as thief's tools in the hands of an empire builder?

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Read 4 tweets
Nov 7, 2024
I've been saying this for years.

Anne Applebaum always manages to hit the nail right on the head.

And we can wonder why does Putin broadly advertise his war crimes? Because it's an 'impunity-show''.

But why?

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And why does Putin orchestrate all these war crimes and advertise them so much?

Because he thereby displays his fascist philosophy that it's neither international law, nor agreements, nor moral values or human rights that dictate or limit his behaviour, but power only. Why?

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Because power is more power when it's on display.

Putin's onslaughts are senseless in the real world of objects, of people's lives, of Russia's (or anyone's) economy. It's senseless in terms of Russia's military might. It's only damaging to all of it.

Does it make sense?

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Read 15 tweets
Nov 3, 2024
Translation Telegram post:

We are making progress in the development of unique weapons, - Scout Thirteen

The commander of the DIU's special unit “Group 13” with the call sign Thirteen exclusively for journalists of the Japanese edition NHK

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2024…
[..]
1/ x.com/DI_Ukraine/sta…
[..] told about the work of the MAGURA V5 maritime attack drone.

✔️ The article about the newest Ukrainian weapon for fighting enemy ships and other targets describes its technical characteristics: length 5.5 meters, speed over 80 kilometers per hour, payload 250 kilograms.

2/
💥 Ukrainian Magura, recognized as the most effective naval strike drone: during the full-scale Russian invasion, the DIU's military intelligence successfully hit 18 Russian ships with this weapon, 9 of which were completely destroyed.

3/
Read 12 tweets

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