🧵It is getting more simple by the day to fight Russia in Ukraine.

Ukraine's allies must use their overwhelming economic and technical potential to help Ukraine.

Europe alone is 10 times larger than Russia in terms of technical and economic potential.

What does that mean?

1/ Let's look at it systematically:

Why simpler?

Because many alternatives have fallen away for Russia.

Before february 2022, Russia did large scale exercises near Ukraine's borders. They played out a large scale tank battle with their more modern equipment.

All gone now.

2/

The Guardian writes that Victor Orbán blocks another €6.5bn from the EU for Ukraine.

I suddenly had this great idea. I wonder why I didn't think of this before:

1/ Here's the full quote from the Guardian:

"EU officials have said an estimated €6.5bn for Ukraine remains stalled by the Hungarian government of Viktor Orbán, considered Russia’s staunchest ally in the union."

2/

Blinken said Ukraine is free to use US weapons wherever they want.

This quickly provoked a flurry of statements by US government spokespeople, all stating that the US wants its weapons to be used on Ukranian territory.

Why?

1/ First of all: the US doesn't accept the role of warring party, which they would if they decided for Ukraine what to target and what not to target. That would end their role as just 'supplier'.

Within that frame, how to interpret the position of the US spokespeople?

2/

Russia uses at least 3 kinds of prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine. Only in March Ukraine counted 50 gas attacks in the Zaporishia area.

Kremlin trolls ask:
"Can you prove it? This is an honest question !"

Their puppet masters know that 'gas' is hard to prove.

1/ You can wonder why did they never asked:

"What??? 152mm grenades? Give me proof!"
"Where's the proof Russia fired vacuum and cluster bombs into apartment blocks?
"Where's the proof Russia fires missiles at civilian targets?"

Of course their question isn't genuine.

2/

Now that Russia has started using a World War-1 poison gas (Chloropicrin) against Ukranian troops, how should the world react?

🧵
How can we understand Russian behaviour?

Especially the behaviour of the Russian State.

One way to look at it, is through cultural 'memes'.

I must stress that not all people 'step into' these memes. Many will adopt a few. Some none.

[..]

1/ Let me offer you some of the cultural memes that I find helpful in understanding Russian behaviour:

It's not complete. I invite you to add your insights in the comments.

1. there are two top rules:
1a. we Russians are basically good people, always;
1b. Russia rules, always;

2/

What are Putin's short term plans?

Putin will bomb the 1.3 million city of Kharkiv fully to rubble with incleasingly heavy glide bombs unless he is stopped.

Putin will introduce two demolition bombs, the FAB-1500 and the FAB-3000. The numbers indicate kgs.

1/

pic: FAB-1500 That means: 1 bomb for 1 block of flats. Not just 4 apartments. People in the basement crushed and unreachable by mountains of rubble and reinforced concrete slabs.

Putin will also continue bombing Ukranian frontline positions that Ukraine will not be able to hold now.

2/

Why does the US prefer a slow crumbling of Russia?

The public narrative is that we're afraid of nuclear escalation. It plays a role, of course, because nobody wants it (including Russia itself).
But the real reason at the operating level is this:
...
1/

https://twitter.com/Kodjo61/status/1771510227310895399

It's kept more or less unexposed:

Someone understood that Russia has a self-annihilating system of multilevel lying that they're addicted to even if someone saw the light. They just cannot stop themselves.

It means that everone at every level lies to hide failures.

2/

Understanding Germany's aid to Ukraine

People wonder how German decision making with regard to military aid actually works. Some think that increasing pressure on Scholz works. I found that Scholz himself had been quite open about what plays a role in decision making.

1/ What Scholz clearly didn't do was consult media experts. That very much opened the way for Kremlin spin doctors.

Scholz, as a first time chancellor was surely considered 'easy game'.

2/

Taurus

People have locked on to the idea of Taurus as the ultimate bridge buster. Of course it's the Kerch bridge everyone imagines.

However, the Taurus isn't a bridge buster, It wasn't designed as such. It's a concrete buster and yes, the Kerch bridge has concrete columns.

1/ In the previous picture you can see, in blue, something that looks like a very long grenade. It is heavy, it is extremely hard and it is launched at very high speed into the concrete and then it explodes.

If it is a bunker, then it may well blow up whatever is inside.

2/

Some people parrot Trump's remark that European countries in the past period, commonly called the 'détente', spent less than the 2% of GDP they had set themselves.

But if Trump claims something, it's worthwhile to also look at reality.

Here we go:

1/ Let's look at Denmark's defense spending in Europe, but outside NATO:

If US aid to Ukraine were on a par with Denmark, then the US House of representatives would now have to discuss a budget of 502 billion USD for Ukraine only.

(instead of 62)

How about NATO spending?

2/

Discussion on war strategy has taken off on a wrong tangent, namely: the assumption that the West engaged in a de-escalation strategy towards Putin's Russia.

The West hasn't.

Neither was it the strategy after 24 February 2022, nor has it taken that turn.

I 'll explain.

1/n There has NOT been a policy of de-escalation after 24 February 2022.

Neither in plans, nor in practice.

What we see is:
Russian action (escalation or otherwise) -> Block and grind down.

Russian attack -> Block and grind down

Da capo al fine
Rinse and repeat

2/n

People ask me to investigate George Soros, a philantropist who escaped Hungary as a youth and later became very rich.

Just looking into the name 'Soros' brings you (often in a single step) closer to anti-semitic inuendo and insinuations. Welcome to a world of lies.

1/n What's real?

The reality is that many people who fled Hitler and were offered a future in the US, expessed their gratitude in different ways. You can look it up.

George Soros did this by giving away his money to projects around freedom, equity and good governance.

2/n

Why get rid of Orban?

The EU can put Hungary on pause through Art 7.

That will stop Orban's vetoes, while the people of Hungary will retain their priviliges in the EU. Hungarians themselves are more than welcome.

- Russia isn't an EU member, doesn't need representation.

1/n - We don't need a constant Hungarian translation of Kremlin's interests, talking points and disinformation.

- The EU needs not to be forced to listen to Putin through Orban's mouth. Putin - a war criminal - seeks to destroy the EU and the international rule of law.

...

2/n

Ukraine will shortly receive 60 Cheetah (Gepard) pieces of self propelled air defence guns (paid for by the US) that served for the past 10 years in Jordan.

They are the Dutch version of the Kraus-Maffei Gepard. The main difference being the Dutch radar.

1/n How to spot the differences?

We see it's built on a German Leopard chassis, it has two (independent) 35mm Swiss Oerlikon guns on either side.
And the radar on top can't be missed.

The picture underneath is of the radar that the Germans fitted.

2/n

People wonder why Ukraine initially received a type of ATACMS that was designed for attacking military areas like airfields or large concentrations of troops and equipment.

Well, simply because it was a priority.

What types of ATACMS are there?
And what about upgrades?

1/n You can use these designations to read about the technical properties of each:

MGM-140A
MGM-140B
MGM-140D
MGM-168A (Formerly designated as MGM-140E)

There are different designation for the same weapon, like "Block I" or "M39". See picture.

2/n

Hamas is a bunch of traitors.

Even as - especially now- you may not want to know, the first they betrayed were the Palestinians themselves.

Hamas campaigned against Fatah's corruption. And Fatah was deeply corrupt. The West, Israel, the Palestinians - everyone had enough.

1/n Footnote:

And yes, they won (18 years ago) 57% of all the seats, but the Palestinians thought they had voted for something quite different. They were told their vote would be a vote against corruption and for truth).

They didn't get what they voted for.

What DID they get?
...

The Carnegie institute published an article by Andrei
Kolesnikov in which he describes the probabillity of the Kremlin shoving some technocrats to the front when Putin's reign ends.

I've mentioned the same thing a few times before.

1/n

carnegieendowment.org/politika/90622… Kolesnikov argues that Russia won't collapse into chaos, simply because historically, it didn't have that tendency.

But that is a matter of how you look at it. In my view, wars can be a way for a country to export its internal tensions, thus avoiding internal upheaval.

2/n

Let's look at what the US would have done if Ukranian territory would have been theirs to liberate:

1. Take out Russian artillery: same
2. Hitting command posts, ammo warehouses, troops and infrastructure: same
Comment: the US would have used ATACMS against distant targets.

1/8 3. Targeting Russian radar with HARMs: same (but safer with F16s).

4. Break up Russian defensive positions from the air: Ukraine can not.

Comment: with Russian air defense out of the way, the US might well have used the same combination as in the 90's: A10's and F16's.

2/8

A day at the lake

I was sitting at a small lake in Holland today, a sunny day, children swimming, birds singing. A group arrived: adults and children. I can't distinguish slavic languages, so I asked: Ukranians.

1/n Another group came: a mixed group: Russians and Ukranians, they were friends.

Then a family of three: Portuguese speaking. A Chinese woman and two children, she spoke English on the phone interspersed with Dutch words. A couple, speaking Spanish, walked by: "too full here".

2/n

Adding things up, it's time for a little warning.

A thread on a threat 🧵🧶✂️🪡

Actually, it would be good if the US would demonstrate its readiness to retalliate (as promised) if Russia goes nuclear INSIDE Russia north of Kharkiv.

Kharkiv will always be affected.

1/14 From different sources, but adding it up:

- the Kremlin does NOT seem to hold the inhabitants of Belgorod in high regard (some sort of Ukranians)

- the Russian freedom fighters that support Ukraine and that fight in Belgorod province ARE a real threat in Putin's mind...

2/14