This is how Trump thinks about trade:

Trump thinks about trade in a very 2-dimensional way, in terms of trade deficit or trade surplus with single trade partners.

So in this picture he thinks the red countries are the bad guys while green ones are good.

But is that real?

1/ It's not real.

In the example of Canada/US we see that the US buys crude oil from Canada. Why? Because when you calculate both transport and price it is most profitable for American companies to do so.

Does offering the most profitable option make Canada a bad guy?

No.

2/

What is the US blind to?

Current US politicians are blind to the historical division of tasks within NATO. The US after WW2 saw itself as the 'managing director' (so to speak) of NATO.

Other NATO members offered military details for projects that the US deemed necessary.

1/ Other NATO countries don't even have the software to organise a coordinated military operation.

Fighter jet squadrons to the Middle East? OK. Or covertly listening in to Russian nuclear subs? OK. Protecting merchant shipping in the Atlantic, the Red Sea? OK.

2/

Putin's war and fertiliser

150 years ago, guano and similar fertiliser used to be mined from Peru and Chile. Later on it was produced using natural gas (producing lots of CO2) by countries like Russia that have an abundance of gas.

But that's going to change.

1/ Natural gas based fertiliser has certain disadvantages:

1. It's the chemical process that produces the most CO2 of all - all things being equal, we'd prefer a process that produces less of it;

2. In the case of Russia: we'd like less of that as well.

Why?

[,,]

2/

How does Russia's 'small step' advance on the battlefield actually work?

How do the pieces of the puzzle fit together?
I will describe the essence here.

We all heard that Russia changed its 'meat grinder' tactics - but why did the number of casualties go up?

1/ It took an interview with a defected Russian soldier and some Telegram messages to make the pieces fit together.

The general background picture is firstly that Russia is in a 'make do' situation: this is the best they can do with their present weapons and men.

Meaning?

2/

Reality

Russia is sliding downwards in every sense: their stocks of weapons are almost empty, production doesn't keep up, the normal economy goes downhill fast, the war economy is paid for with money they don't have.

Should the world be in a hurry to negotiate peace?

No.

1/ Military aid for Ukraine is picking up. The West has increased its production of shells. More weapons of every kind are on the way. Ukraine's own weapons inventions prove very effective.

Yes, countering glide bombs and meat wave tactics are still a challenge to be resolved.

2/

The Ruble doesn't find support. It entered into a fee fall. Now Russia has stopped trading. This means that the exchange rate will just SEEM to have stabilised, but that's not the case. The Ruble has become a 'black market only' currency.

What's a free fall?

1/
pic: Moscow It means the value goes down and nothing stabilises it, nothing moves it up. It means the Ruble is not supported anymore. Not by foreign buyers who need Rubles to buy Russian exports. And not by short term measures of the Russian Central Bank.

For instance [..]

2/

Normally, what is produced continues to play a further role in the economy. Industry makes an electric drill. A builder makes a shop with it. The shop sells boots. Farmers buy the boots and produces butter. Value makes more value.

War production does not make such a chain.

1/4 In war, governments pay to produce bombs.
They explode and the value is gone.

Especially true in a war of attrition. The government makes dead-end-payments.

Economists do not make this distinction, they say Russia's GDP last year was great.

2/4

🧵
What is the "Russian Imperial Mindset"?

The 'Russian imperial mindset' is very strongly present in many Russians. It is not a 'stand-alone' kind of thing. Jung might have described it as a 'complex' accompanied by a few other peculiarities.

Here's a list:
[..]

1/ Elements of the Russian Imperial Mindset:
- a sense of how big Russia is
- an assumption of invincibllity, based on sheer size
- that the size of Russia needs a strongman to be governed
- that this requires a hierarchy with the strongman at the top holding absolute power

2/

I've been saying this for years.

Anne Applebaum always manages to hit the nail right on the head.

And we can wonder why does Putin broadly advertise his war crimes? Because it's an 'impunity-show''.

But why?

1/

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1854448523485270214

And why does Putin orchestrate all these war crimes and advertise them so much?

Because he thereby displays his fascist philosophy that it's neither international law, nor agreements, nor moral values or human rights that dictate or limit his behaviour, but power only. Why?

2/

Translation Telegram post:

We are making progress in the development of unique weapons, - Scout Thirteen

The commander of the DIU's special unit “Group 13” with the call sign Thirteen exclusively for journalists of the Japanese edition NHK

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2024…
[..]
1/ x.com/DI_Ukraine/sta… [..] told about the work of the MAGURA V5 maritime attack drone.

✔️ The article about the newest Ukrainian weapon for fighting enemy ships and other targets describes its technical characteristics: length 5.5 meters, speed over 80 kilometers per hour, payload 250 kilograms.

2/

🧵
What is the US afraid of when it comes to giving Ukraine what it needs to win?

The US mentioned 'escalation' but that's the wrong word. They probably chose it because they thought it was a non-technical word that the general public would understand.

What is it then?

1/
I suspect the US actually wanted to avoid what is called a 'runaway feedback loop'.

The concept originates from the field of engineering and involves mathematics and schematic descriptions. Many might find that too specialistic.

Let's apply it to Ukraine:

2/
pic: Russian bomb

🧵It is getting more simple by the day to fight Russia in Ukraine.

Ukraine's allies must use their overwhelming economic and technical potential to help Ukraine.

Europe alone is 10 times larger than Russia in terms of technical and economic potential.

What does that mean?

1/ Let's look at it systematically:

Why simpler?

Because many alternatives have fallen away for Russia.

Before february 2022, Russia did large scale exercises near Ukraine's borders. They played out a large scale tank battle with their more modern equipment.

All gone now.

2/

The Guardian writes that Victor Orbán blocks another €6.5bn from the EU for Ukraine.

I suddenly had this great idea. I wonder why I didn't think of this before:

1/ Here's the full quote from the Guardian:

"EU officials have said an estimated €6.5bn for Ukraine remains stalled by the Hungarian government of Viktor Orbán, considered Russia’s staunchest ally in the union."

2/

Blinken said Ukraine is free to use US weapons wherever they want.

This quickly provoked a flurry of statements by US government spokespeople, all stating that the US wants its weapons to be used on Ukranian territory.

Why?

1/ First of all: the US doesn't accept the role of warring party, which they would if they decided for Ukraine what to target and what not to target. That would end their role as just 'supplier'.

Within that frame, how to interpret the position of the US spokespeople?

2/

Russia uses at least 3 kinds of prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine. Only in March Ukraine counted 50 gas attacks in the Zaporishia area.

Kremlin trolls ask:
"Can you prove it? This is an honest question !"

Their puppet masters know that 'gas' is hard to prove.

1/ You can wonder why did they never asked:

"What??? 152mm grenades? Give me proof!"
"Where's the proof Russia fired vacuum and cluster bombs into apartment blocks?
"Where's the proof Russia fires missiles at civilian targets?"

Of course their question isn't genuine.

2/

Now that Russia has started using a World War-1 poison gas (Chloropicrin) against Ukranian troops, how should the world react?

🧵
How can we understand Russian behaviour?

Especially the behaviour of the Russian State.

One way to look at it, is through cultural 'memes'.

I must stress that not all people 'step into' these memes. Many will adopt a few. Some none.

[..]

1/ Let me offer you some of the cultural memes that I find helpful in understanding Russian behaviour:

It's not complete. I invite you to add your insights in the comments.

1. there are two top rules:
1a. we Russians are basically good people, always;
1b. Russia rules, always;

2/

What are Putin's short term plans?

Putin will bomb the 1.3 million city of Kharkiv fully to rubble with incleasingly heavy glide bombs unless he is stopped.

Putin will introduce two demolition bombs, the FAB-1500 and the FAB-3000. The numbers indicate kgs.

1/

pic: FAB-1500 That means: 1 bomb for 1 block of flats. Not just 4 apartments. People in the basement crushed and unreachable by mountains of rubble and reinforced concrete slabs.

Putin will also continue bombing Ukranian frontline positions that Ukraine will not be able to hold now.

2/

Why does the US prefer a slow crumbling of Russia?

The public narrative is that we're afraid of nuclear escalation. It plays a role, of course, because nobody wants it (including Russia itself).
But the real reason at the operating level is this:
...
1/

https://twitter.com/Kodjo61/status/1771510227310895399

It's kept more or less unexposed:

Someone understood that Russia has a self-annihilating system of multilevel lying that they're addicted to even if someone saw the light. They just cannot stop themselves.

It means that everone at every level lies to hide failures.

2/

Understanding Germany's aid to Ukraine

People wonder how German decision making with regard to military aid actually works. Some think that increasing pressure on Scholz works. I found that Scholz himself had been quite open about what plays a role in decision making.

1/ What Scholz clearly didn't do was consult media experts. That very much opened the way for Kremlin spin doctors.

Scholz, as a first time chancellor was surely considered 'easy game'.

2/

Taurus

People have locked on to the idea of Taurus as the ultimate bridge buster. Of course it's the Kerch bridge everyone imagines.

However, the Taurus isn't a bridge buster, It wasn't designed as such. It's a concrete buster and yes, the Kerch bridge has concrete columns.

1/ In the previous picture you can see, in blue, something that looks like a very long grenade. It is heavy, it is extremely hard and it is launched at very high speed into the concrete and then it explodes.

If it is a bunker, then it may well blow up whatever is inside.

2/