René Duba Profile picture
Conflict analyst 🅿️ Use 'Search' or Google for sources. DM: Not used.
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Nov 29 8 tweets 3 min read
The Ruble doesn't find support. It entered into a fee fall. Now Russia has stopped trading. This means that the exchange rate will just SEEM to have stabilised, but that's not the case. The Ruble has become a 'black market only' currency.

What's a free fall?

1/
pic: Moscow Image It means the value goes down and nothing stabilises it, nothing moves it up. It means the Ruble is not supported anymore. Not by foreign buyers who need Rubles to buy Russian exports. And not by short term measures of the Russian Central Bank.

For instance [..]

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Nov 28 4 tweets 2 min read
Normally, what is produced continues to play a further role in the economy. Industry makes an electric drill. A builder makes a shop with it. The shop sells boots. Farmers buy the boots and produces butter. Value makes more value.

War production does not make such a chain.

1/4 Image In war, governments pay to produce bombs.
They explode and the value is gone.

Especially true in a war of attrition. The government makes dead-end-payments.

Economists do not make this distinction, they say Russia's GDP last year was great.

2/4 Image
Nov 24 8 tweets 3 min read
🧵
What is the "Russian Imperial Mindset"?

The 'Russian imperial mindset' is very strongly present in many Russians. It is not a 'stand-alone' kind of thing. Jung might have described it as a 'complex' accompanied by a few other peculiarities.

Here's a list:
[..]

1/ Image Elements of the Russian Imperial Mindset:
- a sense of how big Russia is
- an assumption of invincibllity, based on sheer size
- that the size of Russia needs a strongman to be governed
- that this requires a hierarchy with the strongman at the top holding absolute power

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Nov 7 15 tweets 6 min read
I've been saying this for years.

Anne Applebaum always manages to hit the nail right on the head.

And we can wonder why does Putin broadly advertise his war crimes? Because it's an 'impunity-show''.

But why?

1/ And why does Putin orchestrate all these war crimes and advertise them so much?

Because he thereby displays his fascist philosophy that it's neither international law, nor agreements, nor moral values or human rights that dictate or limit his behaviour, but power only. Why?

2/ Image
Nov 3 12 tweets 3 min read
Translation Telegram post:

We are making progress in the development of unique weapons, - Scout Thirteen

The commander of the DIU's special unit “Group 13” with the call sign Thirteen exclusively for journalists of the Japanese edition NHK

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2024…
[..]
1/ x.com/DI_Ukraine/sta… [..] told about the work of the MAGURA V5 maritime attack drone.

✔️ The article about the newest Ukrainian weapon for fighting enemy ships and other targets describes its technical characteristics: length 5.5 meters, speed over 80 kilometers per hour, payload 250 kilograms.

2/
Oct 5 10 tweets 3 min read
🧵
What is the US afraid of when it comes to giving Ukraine what it needs to win?

The US mentioned 'escalation' but that's the wrong word. They probably chose it because they thought it was a non-technical word that the general public would understand.

What is it then?

1/ Image
Image
I suspect the US actually wanted to avoid what is called a 'runaway feedback loop'.

The concept originates from the field of engineering and involves mathematics and schematic descriptions. Many might find that too specialistic.

Let's apply it to Ukraine:

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pic: Russian bomb Image
Jul 5 13 tweets 4 min read
🧵It is getting more simple by the day to fight Russia in Ukraine.

Ukraine's allies must use their overwhelming economic and technical potential to help Ukraine.

Europe alone is 10 times larger than Russia in terms of technical and economic potential.

What does that mean?

1/ Image Let's look at it systematically:

Why simpler?

Because many alternatives have fallen away for Russia.

Before february 2022, Russia did large scale exercises near Ukraine's borders. They played out a large scale tank battle with their more modern equipment.

All gone now.

2/ Image
May 29 5 tweets 2 min read
The Guardian writes that Victor Orbán blocks another €6.5bn from the EU for Ukraine.

I suddenly had this great idea. I wonder why I didn't think of this before:

1/ Image Here's the full quote from the Guardian:

"EU officials have said an estimated €6.5bn for Ukraine remains stalled by the Hungarian government of Viktor Orbán, considered Russia’s staunchest ally in the union."

2/ Image
May 18 10 tweets 2 min read
Blinken said Ukraine is free to use US weapons wherever they want.

This quickly provoked a flurry of statements by US government spokespeople, all stating that the US wants its weapons to be used on Ukranian territory.

Why?

1/ Image First of all: the US doesn't accept the role of warring party, which they would if they decided for Ukraine what to target and what not to target. That would end their role as just 'supplier'.

Within that frame, how to interpret the position of the US spokespeople?

2/
May 3 9 tweets 4 min read
Russia uses at least 3 kinds of prohibited chemical weapons in Ukraine. Only in March Ukraine counted 50 gas attacks in the Zaporishia area.

Kremlin trolls ask:
"Can you prove it? This is an honest question !"

Their puppet masters know that 'gas' is hard to prove.

1/ Image You can wonder why did they never asked:

"What??? 152mm grenades? Give me proof!"
"Where's the proof Russia fired vacuum and cluster bombs into apartment blocks?
"Where's the proof Russia fires missiles at civilian targets?"

Of course their question isn't genuine.

2/ Image
May 2 9 tweets 6 min read
Now that Russia has started using a World War-1 poison gas (Chloropicrin) against Ukranian troops, how should the world react? Image Image
Apr 22 9 tweets 4 min read
🧵
How can we understand Russian behaviour?

Especially the behaviour of the Russian State.

One way to look at it, is through cultural 'memes'.

I must stress that not all people 'step into' these memes. Many will adopt a few. Some none.

[..]

1/ Image Let me offer you some of the cultural memes that I find helpful in understanding Russian behaviour:

It's not complete. I invite you to add your insights in the comments.

1. there are two top rules:
1a. we Russians are basically good people, always;
1b. Russia rules, always;

2/ Image
Apr 7 8 tweets 3 min read
What are Putin's short term plans?

Putin will bomb the 1.3 million city of Kharkiv fully to rubble with incleasingly heavy glide bombs unless he is stopped.

Putin will introduce two demolition bombs, the FAB-1500 and the FAB-3000. The numbers indicate kgs.

1/

pic: FAB-1500 Image That means: 1 bomb for 1 block of flats. Not just 4 apartments. People in the basement crushed and unreachable by mountains of rubble and reinforced concrete slabs.

Putin will also continue bombing Ukranian frontline positions that Ukraine will not be able to hold now.

2/ Image
Mar 23 6 tweets 2 min read
Why does the US prefer a slow crumbling of Russia?

The public narrative is that we're afraid of nuclear escalation. It plays a role, of course, because nobody wants it (including Russia itself).
But the real reason at the operating level is this:
...
1/
Image It's kept more or less unexposed:

Someone understood that Russia has a self-annihilating system of multilevel lying that they're addicted to even if someone saw the light. They just cannot stop themselves.

It means that everone at every level lies to hide failures.

2/
Mar 19 16 tweets 6 min read
Understanding Germany's aid to Ukraine

People wonder how German decision making with regard to military aid actually works. Some think that increasing pressure on Scholz works. I found that Scholz himself had been quite open about what plays a role in decision making.

1/ Image What Scholz clearly didn't do was consult media experts. That very much opened the way for Kremlin spin doctors.

Scholz, as a first time chancellor was surely considered 'easy game'.

2/ Image
Mar 3 14 tweets 3 min read
Taurus

People have locked on to the idea of Taurus as the ultimate bridge buster. Of course it's the Kerch bridge everyone imagines.

However, the Taurus isn't a bridge buster, It wasn't designed as such. It's a concrete buster and yes, the Kerch bridge has concrete columns.

1/ Image In the previous picture you can see, in blue, something that looks like a very long grenade. It is heavy, it is extremely hard and it is launched at very high speed into the concrete and then it explodes.

If it is a bunker, then it may well blow up whatever is inside.

2/
Mar 1 6 tweets 2 min read
Some people parrot Trump's remark that European countries in the past period, commonly called the 'détente', spent less than the 2% of GDP they had set themselves.

But if Trump claims something, it's worthwhile to also look at reality.

Here we go:

1/ Image Let's look at Denmark's defense spending in Europe, but outside NATO:

If US aid to Ukraine were on a par with Denmark, then the US House of representatives would now have to discuss a budget of 502 billion USD for Ukraine only.

(instead of 62)

How about NATO spending?

2/
Feb 23 11 tweets 5 min read
Discussion on war strategy has taken off on a wrong tangent, namely: the assumption that the West engaged in a de-escalation strategy towards Putin's Russia.

The West hasn't.

Neither was it the strategy after 24 February 2022, nor has it taken that turn.

I 'll explain.

1/n Image There has NOT been a policy of de-escalation after 24 February 2022.

Neither in plans, nor in practice.

What we see is:
Russian action (escalation or otherwise) -> Block and grind down.

Russian attack -> Block and grind down

Da capo al fine
Rinse and repeat

2/n Image
Feb 6 12 tweets 5 min read
People ask me to investigate George Soros, a philantropist who escaped Hungary as a youth and later became very rich.

Just looking into the name 'Soros' brings you (often in a single step) closer to anti-semitic inuendo and insinuations. Welcome to a world of lies.

1/n Image What's real?

The reality is that many people who fled Hitler and were offered a future in the US, expessed their gratitude in different ways. You can look it up.

George Soros did this by giving away his money to projects around freedom, equity and good governance.

2/n Image
Jan 18 11 tweets 2 min read
Why get rid of Orban?

The EU can put Hungary on pause through Art 7.

That will stop Orban's vetoes, while the people of Hungary will retain their priviliges in the EU. Hungarians themselves are more than welcome.

- Russia isn't an EU member, doesn't need representation.

1/n Image - We don't need a constant Hungarian translation of Kremlin's interests, talking points and disinformation.

- The EU needs not to be forced to listen to Putin through Orban's mouth. Putin - a war criminal - seeks to destroy the EU and the international rule of law.

...

2/n
Nov 15, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read
Ukraine will shortly receive 60 Cheetah (Gepard) pieces of self propelled air defence guns (paid for by the US) that served for the past 10 years in Jordan.

They are the Dutch version of the Kraus-Maffei Gepard. The main difference being the Dutch radar.

1/n Image How to spot the differences?

We see it's built on a German Leopard chassis, it has two (independent) 35mm Swiss Oerlikon guns on either side.
And the radar on top can't be missed.

The picture underneath is of the radar that the Germans fitted.

2/n Image