7/ BTR-80s: almost gone too, just 73 out of 429 left here by now, almost all reorganized in this spot and ready to be shipped out.
8/ BMPs: there were at least 124 BMP-3s stored at the 22nd before the war, and by 2023 all were gone. Now it's mostly BMP-1s and BRM-1s (reccon BMP-1 variant) left, and a lot of them are in terrible condition.
9/ Almost half of the BMPs, plus some 30 BTR-50s, are stored here. You can see that they started moving them around, despite being little more than husks:
10/ BRDM-2s: also stored in shitty condition in a specific spot of the base and almost untouched:
11/ However, you can see that they're getting desperate now and looking for every piece of equipment they can get running again: BRDM-2s, BTR-50s, and even the seven MT-LBus stored here have been moved around to be ready to ship out or cannibalize them for spare parts:
12/ And I disagree with @a_from_s here: if anything, ordening everything in nice rows made up of vehicles clearly not missing turrets or engines points to those vehicles being the last batches of working armor that will be demothballed.
13/ In fact, you can see that some BMPs are already missing in these areas, despite haven't been left there for more than a few months at most. Plus track marks everywhere.
14/ Take another look at the BMPs stored at the 6018th, showed in the quoted tweet: there too vehicles show recent movement, and it seems they lump together all remaining working vehicles, as there's also BTRs, BRDM-2s and MT-LBs alongside BMPs.
15/ TL;DR: they're scrapping the barrel at the 22nd storage base and prepping all remaning AFVs in decent condition to be sent to Ukraine to replenish armor losses for the Russian invading forces. This base will probaby be depleted of anything but broken, rusty hulls by 2025.
16/ Finally, I know I've been pretty out these last couple months, but I'll have alot of free time in December to put out some decent threads.
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1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s. T-72 and T-90s and specifics on the industry will come in the second part.
2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology:
There's one fundamental reason for everything that we're seeing lately, and it's been in the making for 2 years already: Zelensky & co refusing to understand that this is a war of survival and not enacting a proper mobilization. Corruption, incompetence, political interests...
Call it whatever you want, but at some point it's not even Syrskiy's fault anymore. YOU CAN'T HOLD GROUND WITHOUT INFANTRY. Everything and everywhere is atrociously undermanned.
Since some people are wondering how many of the "poor" and "worse" tanks can ever be brought back to service, let me explain it once more: ALL OF THEM. It's just a matter of money and time, and how willing the Kremlin is to waste its assets.
Take for example the 2456th tank storage base. The main facility is the one already known, but to the right there's the old scrapyard. Right when the war started they were scrapping T-62s and 64s there, but they stopped for obvious reasons:
We included this tanks in our count, as explained by @CovertCabal in his video about the 2456th, because the ones remaning weren't yet scrapped, tho they're in a terrible state.
Thanks to the kind benefactor we observe that in 3-4 months things have changed a lot for the Russian tank reserve:
- Overall tanks have dropped from 3,106 to 2,478.
- More specifically, T-72As, which previously stand almost the same as prewar, have dropped from 900 to just 461.
Even at bases which previously hadn't seen abrely any tank drawdown like the 2544th, which also has T-62s, T-72As are being pulled out like crazy.
No surprise, considering other recent developments linked to this one, which are what allowed us to suspect in the first place T-72As were fastly being removed from storage bases:
Only question now is how many T-90As they had in the first place, how many T-90Ms are actually made from scratch and how long the tank stockpiles will last, considering they already going for T-72As.
To clarify: this doesn't mean Russia doesn't produce T-90Ms from scratch. In fact T-90A refurbs are probably but a tiny share of the total producion. Among other things, because barely 200 T-90As were produced.
1/ Sort 🧵about the 6018th: while there's still no new decent footage of this major storage base, a closer look at a recent update on Copernicus (Sentinel-2) appears to show a lot of naked ground on the spot where there used to be a lot of the remaining (poorly conserved) armor.
2/ After mostly emptying out the 6018th earlier in the war, in recent times they've come back to pick up the remains.
3/ I previously speculated that these base probably has seen, at the vary least, most or all of their remaining rusty T-80s and better preserved BMP-1/2/3s taken in recent months. We'll just have to wait until better proof of it.