Thread by @dolphin_dane

🇲🇪🇪🇺 BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2025: MONTESONG RESULTS
Based on the predictions of Eurofans, I have simulated Montesong 2024 10000 times. These predictions and simulations allow us to get a solid picture of each entry's chances at the competition. Let's go! (A thread 🧵)

As reflected in the winning chances, you believe "Dobrodošli" is by far the strongest entry in the selection, having both the highest predicted jury and tele score on average. While 8 of the entries have limited chances, the other 8 either do well with jury, tele or both

Just going by the averages, Nina sweeps, with jury and televote runners up Tamara and Isak coming 2nd and 3rd. However, this standard scenario is very unlikely, as entries will surely surprise on Wednesday. This diversity is reflected in the 10000 simulations, more on that later

So what are Montenegro's chances in Basel looking like? Let's take a look at the placement of each entry. Both scales go from 0 to 100. Anything placing below a tele score of 20 will likely fail to make the final, while anything placing above 35 will likely qualify

So while it's clear, that no entry seems to have winning potential reaching the 80's of a scale, Nina seems like a strong bet at qualifying, and getting a decent jury result. Isak, Baryak, Tamara, and Kejt also look like potential qualifier candidates

Let's now take a look at the details for each entry. For each song, I will show you the distribution of predictions for both Montesong and Eurovision, as well as the distribution of placements and points in Montesong across the 10000 simulations

Nina Žižić - Dobro došli:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 88.6
Average tele prediction: 17.5%
Win chance: 60.9%
Top 3 chance: 88.68%
Top half chance: 99.06%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 9.1/9.8/18.9

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 53.7
Tele prediction: 37.1

Isak Šabanović - Ljeto, ljeto, ljeto:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 60.7
Average tele prediction: 13%
Win chance: 9.39%
Top 3 chance: 42.04%
Top half chance: 89.15%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 4.3/8.1/12.4

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 14.4
Tele prediction: 28.5

Tamara Živković - Poguban let:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 73
Average tele prediction: 8.1%
Win chance: 8.38%
Top 3 chance: 38.53%
Top half chance: 86.27%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 6.3/5.4/11.7

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 41.3
Tele prediction: 26.7

Milena Vučić - Škorpija:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 54.6
Average tele prediction: 9.5%
Win chance: 5.49%
Top 3 chance: 24.78%
Top half chance: 71.41%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 3.5/6/9.5

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 17.4
Tele prediction: 17.4

Kejt - Obala raja:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 66.2
Average tele prediction: 7.5%
Win chance: 5.03%
Top 3 chance: 27.94%
Top half chance: 78.11%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 5.2/5.1/10.2

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 30.5
Tele prediction: 25.7

Baryak - Dva srca:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 54.1
Average tele prediction: 8.1%
Win chance: 4.44%
Top 3 chance: 21.03%
Top half chance: 67.89%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 3.6/5.3/8.9

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 18.5
Tele prediction: 27.9

Anastasija Koprolčec - Kraj:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 68.9
Average tele prediction: 5.5%
Win chance: 2.64%
Top 3 chance: 21.27%
Top half chance: 71.6%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 5.6/3.4/9

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 37.5
Tele prediction: 18.8

Đurđa - To ljubav je:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 70.1
Average tele prediction: 4.6%
Win chance: 2.32%
Top 3 chance: 18.38%
Top half chance: 67.46%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 5.8/2.7/8.5

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 36.4
Tele prediction: 19.5

Nemanja Petrović - Među zvijezdama:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 57.6
Average tele prediction: 4.1%
Win chance: 0.7%
Top 3 chance: 7.52%
Top half chance: 44.98%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 3.8/2.1/5.9

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 18.5
Tele prediction: 13

Neonoen - Clickbait:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 27.4
Average tele prediction: 4.6%
Win chance: 0.28%
Top 3 chance: 2.58%
Top half chance: 26.83%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 1.2/2.8/4.1

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 6.3
Tele prediction: 16.7

Verica Čuljković - Čuješ li:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 49.6
Average tele prediction: 3.2%
Win chance: 0.14%
Top 3 chance: 2.25%
Top half chance: 26.26%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 2.6/1.4/4

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 18.8
Tele prediction: 10.9

Luka Radović - Kada dođe maj:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 44.3
Average tele prediction: 3.4%
Win chance: 0.1%
Top 3 chance: 1.64%
Top half chance: 20.41%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 2/1.4/3.4

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 10
Tele prediction: 11.1

Tina Džankić - Nova:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 43.5
Average tele prediction: 2.8%
Win chance: 0.09%
Top 3 chance: 1.91%
Top half chance: 20.63%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 2.1/1.2/3.3

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 13.6
Tele prediction: 13.5

Glumci Band - San:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 34.8
Average tele prediction: 3%
Win chance: 0.07%
Top 3 chance: 0.76%
Top half chance: 13.39%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 1.3/1.3/2.6

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 7.5
Tele prediction: 6.9

Band 9 - Stop War:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 24.5
Average tele prediction: 3.4%
Win chance: 0.02%
Top 3 chance: 0.39%
Top half chance: 10.42%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 0.7/1.6/2.3

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 6.6
Tele prediction: 15.5

Dolce Hera - Repeat:
Montesong:
Average jury prediction: 29.9
Average tele prediction: 1.9%
Win chance: 0.01%
Top 3 chance: 0.3%
Top half chance: 6.13%
Av. points received (jury/tele/total): 1/0.4/1.3

Eurovision:
Jury prediction: 9.2
Tele prediction: 11.4

And that's all! Thank you so much for reading, and to everyone who submitted their predictions and made this possible! I plan to do similar forecasts for other NFs this season, so if you want to help by submitting your own predictions, sign up here:
forms.gle/jbxgJ3SZq1QixT…

@threadreaderapp unroll