Oxford anthropologist J.D. Unwin studied 86 societies and civilizations to see why some collapse and others don't.
What did he find?
That sexual debauchery leads to the collapse of a civilization within 3 generations. (thread) 🧵
Unwin defined four categories of cultures. Each is differentiated in its pursuit of art, engineering, literature, agriculture, etc.
1. Dead - these cultures are only focused on the day-to-day needs of life. They don't care about higher questions and so do not progress.
2. Superstitious - these cultures develop beliefs that help them explain the natural world. This can be represented in the special treatment of the dead.
3. Deistic - characterized by belief in gods or a god. This requires more imagination and higher-order thinking
4. Rationalistic - characterized by rational thinking. This was the category with the most human flourishing.
Next, Unwin defined sexual ethics and restraint into two categories.
Unwin's two categories of sexual ethics and restraint:
- Prenuptial - this was measured on a scale from complete sexual freedom to "remain a virgin until married."
- Postnuptial - how easy is it to get a divorce? How many wives can a man have? How faithful are the women expected to be?
What did he find?
The single most influential factor in a civilization's longevity and success is prenuptial chastity.
If people were expected to remain virgins until marriage, the culture was more likely to have all of the markers of human flourishing.
They were more likely to be an "advanced" civilization.
What was the best combination, resulting in a culture that exceeds other cultures?
You probably won't be surprised.
Prenuptial chastity combined with absolute monogamy. Absolute monogamy means one spouse for life.
Why was prenuptial chastity the most important?
In cultures where virginity was no longer expected, within three generations, the following disappeared:
- absolute monogamy
- deism
- rational thinking
Without prenuptial chastity, people usually regress into the lowest "dead" category as they become interested only in their own wants and needs.
They become slaves to their appetites.
Cultures that have embraced total sexual freedom collapse within three generations.
They might limp along for a time, powered by some momentum, but eventually, they are conquered or taken over by another culture.
In the West, the sexual revolution started in the late 1960's. Three generations (~40 years each) from then would put us in the 2070s.
Are we on the way to collapse?
The evidence points to "yes."
You cannot have both sexual freedom and progress.
Unwin: "Any human society is free to choose either to display great energy or to enjoy sexual freedom; the evidence is that it cannot do both for more than one generation."
Sexual freedom unleashes all sorts of demons on a society.
Couple it with modern medicine, which basically baptizes sexual debauchery with antibiotics and abortion, and you have an acceleration of collapse.
Slaves are too busy having orgies to be truly productive.
It turns out that marriage is not just a private contract between two individuals.
It has ramifications for the entire community and culture.
How a society views and treats marriage determines whether or not it will keep things like indoor plumbing and modern dentistry.
What two (or more) people do together in the bedroom is not, indeed, a private matter.
Writ large, it has consequences for that entire civilization.
Likewise, porn is cultural cancer.
It rots the bones.
A healthy civilization, or one that wants to progress, will want to eradicate it or push it to the fringes of society. Porn leads to other debaucheries.
Looking at the current state of our culture, is there any hope to avoid collapse? It looks bleak.
Even recently, close to a pandemic, we've even people engaging in orgies and other risky sexual behavior, despite a new disease called monkeypox.
They really are slaves to their passions.
The good news: a culture can be turned around. Massive repentance can bear fruit.
But based on the data, it also takes three generations for improvements to start showing up.
Sexual ethics is a powerful rudder, but it is still a rudder on a huge, lumbering ship. Better start turning the wheel.
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In 1784, the French government sent Benjamin Franklin and Antoine Lavoisier to investigate a man who claimed he could cure any disease by waving his hands.
Thousands of Parisians believed his claims. Even the queen endorsed him.
What the commission found is a warning for every age.
"Trust the experts" has always been used to exploit the credulous. (thread) 🧵
The man was Franz Mesmer.
He arrived in Paris in 1778, claiming he had discovered an invisible magnetic fluid that pervaded all nature. He could channel it through his hands and into the sick, and doing so could cure anything.
A prominent physician named D'Eslon converted to his cause. From that moment, magnetism became the fashion in Paris.
His method was simple:
1. Claim access to an invisible force that only you understand.
2. Surround yourself with the trappings of authority.
3. Target the anxious, the credulous, and especially women in distress.
4. Produce dramatic emotional reactions and call them "cures."
That was the entire playbook. Very similar to faith healers today.
Western civilization is not declining. It is already dead. What you are living in is the corpse.
In 1918, a German philosopher studied every civilization that collapsed and found they all shared one trait in the final stage:
The population stops having children.
And it stops having children because it no longer sees the point.
His work was mocked, dismissed, and debated by 400 scholars. But he was right (thread) 🧵
Schoolteacher Oswald Spengler published his work that rejected the idea that history moves in a straight line from "primitive" to "progress."
He called this the Ptolemaic view of history. We place ourselves at the center and assume everything is building toward us. A form of chronological snobbery.
He offered a more Copernican view: every great civilization is its own world. Egypt, China, India, Babylon, Greece, Rome, the West. Each one blooms and dies according to the same pattern.
None is the "goal" of another.
There is a difference between a Culture and a Civilization.
A Culture is the living, creative phase. It produces cathedrals, great art, deep philosophy, genuine faith. It is rooted in the soil.
A Civilization is the dying phase. It produces world-cities, money-worship, sterile intellectualism, and imperial expansion. It is rootless.
Every Culture eventually hardens into a Civilization.
Harvard's first chairman of sociology, Pitirim Sorokin, spent decades analyzing every major civilization in recorded history to answer one question:
Why do great cultures die?
His answer, published in 1941, predicted almost everything happening today.
Down to the collapse of the family, the death of art, and the rise of tyrants. Maybe even the popularity of TikTok.
(thread) 🧵
Sorokin identified three types of culture that every civilization cycles through:
1. Ideational — Reality and value are rooted in the supersensory. God is the organizing principle. Art, law, science, and family all serve the Absolute.
2. Idealistic — A synthesis. The supersensory and the sensory are blended. Think fifth-century Athens or thirteenth-century Christendom. Noble, selective, and sublime.
3. Sensate — Only what you can see, hear, smell, touch, and taste is real. Everything beyond the senses is dismissed as fiction.
Every great culture moves through these phases.
The question is: which phase are we in now?
Western civilization entered its Sensate phase around the sixteenth century (around the Enlightenment)
The only true reality is what the senses can detect, absolute empiricism. Everything else — God, the soul, absolute moral law — is superstition or irrelevant.
From this single premise, Sorokin traced the transformation of every sector of culture: art, science, ethics, law, family, government, and economics.
All of them reorganized around one idea: the sensory world is all there is. 👇
José Ortega y Gasset watched Europe triple its population in a single century and asked:
What happens when the average man, raised in unprecedented comfort, decides he owes *nothing* to the civilization that made his life possible?
His answer, written in 1930, predicted the exact world we live in today. (thread) 🧵
Ortega divided humanity into two types.
Type 1: The noble man. Someone who holds himself to standards beyond what is required. He seeks difficulty. He imposes obligations on himself. Life for him is discipline and striving.
Type 2: The mass-man. Someone content to be identical to everyone else. He demands nothing of himself. He floats. He thinks nothing of watching 5+ hours of TV on a Saturday afternoon.
The mass-man is not defined by income or job title. A factory worker can have a noble soul. A professor can be pure mass-man.
The test is simple:
Does this person believe he has the right to opinions he never earned through effort? Does he feel complete without ever having stretched beyond what comes easy?
In 1895, a French social psychologist named Gustave Le Bon published a book so dangerous that it became the private playbook of dictators for the next century.
Hitler quoted it. Mussolini kept it by his bedside. Edward Bernays used it to build modern propaganda.
The book's name? "The Crowd."
Its core claim: The moment people form a group, they become stupid. Not slightly dumber. Fundamentally, structurally incapable of rational thought.
And the tactics he described for controlling them still work on you right now. 🧵 (thread)
Le Bon's first defined what a "crowd" actually is.
A crowd is not just people standing near each other. A thousand strangers in a train station are not a crowd. A crowd forms when individual consciousness dissolves and a collective mind takes over.
Six people can be a crowd. An entire nation, separated by thousands of miles, can be a crowd. The question is not proximity. The question is whether individual judgment has been surrendered.
3 forces transform individuals into a crowd:
✅ Anonymity - The feeling of invisible power that comes from being part of a mass. Responsibility vanishes. Restraint vanishes with it.
✅ Contagion - Every emotion becomes infectious. Sentiments pass through a group the way a virus passes through a body. One person's panic becomes everyone's panic.
✅ Suggestibility - The individual enters a hypnotic state. Le Bon compared it directly to hypnosis. The conscious personality disappears. What remains obeys.
Once all three kick in, something startling happens.