Artur Rehi Profile picture
Nov 25, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
The declassified British intelligence memo about Russia's involvement in the poisonings in the EU has caused a lot of noise in the media, but even when it was happening, there were many people who pointed to Russia's involvement. Back then, everyone wanted to be friends with
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Russia and it didn't cause any response. It hardly does now. Today's plane crash in Vilnius happened 20 days after the WSJ wrote about Russia's plans to sabotage airlines. The investigation has just begun, but if it is established that the fire on board was caused by
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deliberate actions, Russia is the main suspect. After Trump's victory, Russia has stepped up its attacks on the European Union and continues to test how far it can go. So far, EU countries, especially its largest members, such as Germany and France, have never responded to
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the Russian threat properly. Because of this, Russia feels unpunished and continues its hybrid war. The West does not want to understand that war has been declared on it and the risk of casualties is only growing. Poisonings, arson, damage to Internet cables, cyber attacks,
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protests, riots - after the US elections, Russia is only increasing sabotage in the EU, because it seems to it at this point that the White House and the US are now under its control. And it is partly right. After a long pause, Polish farmers have become active again and are
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blocking the Ukrainian border, new sabotage of underwater communications, and now, perhaps, a plane crash. The reaction of the European Union - they will announce a response, but words are unlikely to be followed by actions. The ship that damaged the Estonian pipe a year
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ago has not been arrested, those involved in arson in European countries will be detained, but only the perpetrators whom Russia hires via the Internet in the EU. For almost 3 years of war, Western politicians have not dared to take tough measures, and Russia, meanwhile,
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continues to test how far it can go. And while it is allowed to do what it wants with impunity. Modern democracy has proven toothless when faced with a threat. Politicians travel from meeting to meeting, live in expensive hotels, eat in fancy restaurants on the money of EU
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citizens and discuss, discuss, discuss. In their reports, they write that solutions are proposed, steps are alienated, conditions are discussed, but no action follows from all this. The allies were not even able to send all the previously declared aid to Ukraine, and are
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already discussing its reduction. Russian propaganda has seeped into all spheres of life, but the Internet giants are not going to do anything about it, because it brings in money and there is no legislation yet that could control it. Estonia could serve as an example for
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the EU. We were able to create a "digital government". Decisions and actions are taken much faster, because it takes much less time to process new programs and documents, because everything is in digital form, as are the signatures to them. Estonia is under constant
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pressure from Russia, but successfully repels cyber attacks and other its actions. However, big EU countries still look down on "Eastern Europe", although "Eastern" countries could offer the right steps against Russia. If it turns out that Russia is involved in the crash
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of the DHL flight, this is another terrorist attack by the Russian authorities, but Russia will never be recognized as a country sponsoring terrorism because it has an atomic bomb and the US wants to leave a window for negotiations with the Russian Federation. North Korea
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also has a bomb, but it was recognized as a country sponsoring terrorism. If Russia is included in this list, its economy will be finished. It will be finished sooner or later anyway, but this would speed up the process several times.
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But for now the West is not even capable of admitting that Russia has declared war on it, and therefore the number of sabotage acts will only increase.
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More from @ArturRehi

Sep 18
The EU is preparing to transfer most of the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. The scheme is being developed so that the funds are handed over without formal confiscation. The EU plans to use the frozen assets held in depositories to purchase zero-interest EU bonds, with the
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proceeds directed to Kyiv. Russia would only be able to reclaim the assets if it agrees to pay reparations to Ukraine. The amount in question is around €170 billion. Significantly, countries like Germany, along with France and Belgium—previously concerned that seizing
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Russian assets could undermine trust in the euro as a reserve currency—are now supporting the plan. These fears have eased against the backdrop of political turmoil in the US and the weakening of the dollar. Moreover, with Washington’s reluctance, especially Trump’s
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Read 5 tweets
Sep 11
The discussed cancellation of tourist visas for Russians in the new package of European sanctions has caused a wave of outrage among the so-called Russian opposition. Yulia Navalnaya and her team submitted a petition to Brussels, calling to distinguish between “ordinary
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Russians” and the “regime.” The Russian opposition should have long ago stopped being taken seriously. They are not concerned with the fate of Ukraine and they have no sense of responsibility for what is happening in their own country. The only thing that worries them is
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the loss of the ability to live in Europe and enjoy the benefits of the civilized world. Alexei Navalny, it should be reminded, was not against the occupation of Crimea. In fact, the main regret of the Russian opposition is that it is not they who are in power. They are not
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Read 15 tweets
Sep 9
The Russian army is facing a gasoline shortage in the occupied regions of Ukraine. About two weeks ago, a shortage of gasoline at gas stations began, and sales to private individuals were restricted. However, the Russian army in these areas often uses civilian gas stations,
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frequently even refueling at its own expense. The reason is constant Ukrainian strikes on logistics. When a fuel truck arrives at the rear, a rush and crowd form, which Ukrainian reconnaissance drones detect and coordinate strikes on. On top of this, there are frequent cases
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of fuel theft and resale on the black market. Resellers take advantage of the gasoline shortage and sell “under the table” for more than 200 rubles per liter, while the usual price at gas stations is 60–70 rubles per liter. The occupation authorities happily integrated into
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Read 10 tweets
Sep 8
The economic crisis in Russia is worsening. The budget deficit already amounts to 5 trillion rubles for the first seven months of the year, or 3.4% of GDP. This figure is twice the planned value for the entire year, 1.7% of GDP. Today or tomorrow, data for August will be
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published, and the number will be even higher. The main reason is the decline in oil and gas revenues. For the second month in a row, revenues remain at a record minimum of about 500 billion rubles per month, while 1 trillion rubles are needed to cover planned expenditures.
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The problem for Russia is that they have nothing to cover this deficit. There is increasing talk about the need to lower the key interest rate to revive the economy. Proposals are being made to reduce it to 16%. However, lowering the rate never happens without consequences -
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Read 11 tweets
Sep 4
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit has shown that a power capable of posing an economic challenge to the US and the EU has taken shape in the world, and it is directed from Beijing. Putin arrived in China for a four-day visit. Such a long trip by the Russian
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dictator is called, on the one hand, a triumph after his return from Alaska, where US President Trump solemnly welcomed him on the red carpet and did not impose sanctions. On the other hand, relations between Beijing and Moscow are not equal: China benefits from preventing
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rapprochement between Putin and Trump, but Xi also does not want Russia to grow stronger. The SCO is seen as China’s attempt to contain the US in the Indo-Pacific region and as Russia’s response to NATO expansion. However, experts acknowledge that this is not an alliance or
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Read 16 tweets
Sep 2
Europe once again demonstrates its toothlessness towards Russia. The incident with von der Leyen’s plane is a serious event, where the lives of everyone on board were put at risk. An excellent comment on this matter was written by Former Foreign Minister of Lithuania
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Gabrielius Landsbergis: "Deeply concerned to hear about the deeply concerning GPS interference that diverted @vonderleyen 's flight. Europe stands united in expression of deep concerns and must commit to the deployment of ever-deepening concerns moving forward." Expressing
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deep concern is the main tactic of the EU in times when decisive action is needed. I feel like a parrot repeating the same phrase – a tough response to Russia is needed. It understands only the language of force, and if this force is demonstrated, Russia will retreat. It is
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Read 11 tweets

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