The declassified British intelligence memo about Russia's involvement in the poisonings in the EU has caused a lot of noise in the media, but even when it was happening, there were many people who pointed to Russia's involvement. Back then, everyone wanted to be friends with
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Russia and it didn't cause any response. It hardly does now. Today's plane crash in Vilnius happened 20 days after the WSJ wrote about Russia's plans to sabotage airlines. The investigation has just begun, but if it is established that the fire on board was caused by
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deliberate actions, Russia is the main suspect. After Trump's victory, Russia has stepped up its attacks on the European Union and continues to test how far it can go. So far, EU countries, especially its largest members, such as Germany and France, have never responded to
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the Russian threat properly. Because of this, Russia feels unpunished and continues its hybrid war. The West does not want to understand that war has been declared on it and the risk of casualties is only growing. Poisonings, arson, damage to Internet cables, cyber attacks,
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protests, riots - after the US elections, Russia is only increasing sabotage in the EU, because it seems to it at this point that the White House and the US are now under its control. And it is partly right. After a long pause, Polish farmers have become active again and are
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blocking the Ukrainian border, new sabotage of underwater communications, and now, perhaps, a plane crash. The reaction of the European Union - they will announce a response, but words are unlikely to be followed by actions. The ship that damaged the Estonian pipe a year
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ago has not been arrested, those involved in arson in European countries will be detained, but only the perpetrators whom Russia hires via the Internet in the EU. For almost 3 years of war, Western politicians have not dared to take tough measures, and Russia, meanwhile,
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continues to test how far it can go. And while it is allowed to do what it wants with impunity. Modern democracy has proven toothless when faced with a threat. Politicians travel from meeting to meeting, live in expensive hotels, eat in fancy restaurants on the money of EU
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citizens and discuss, discuss, discuss. In their reports, they write that solutions are proposed, steps are alienated, conditions are discussed, but no action follows from all this. The allies were not even able to send all the previously declared aid to Ukraine, and are
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already discussing its reduction. Russian propaganda has seeped into all spheres of life, but the Internet giants are not going to do anything about it, because it brings in money and there is no legislation yet that could control it. Estonia could serve as an example for
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the EU. We were able to create a "digital government". Decisions and actions are taken much faster, because it takes much less time to process new programs and documents, because everything is in digital form, as are the signatures to them. Estonia is under constant
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pressure from Russia, but successfully repels cyber attacks and other its actions. However, big EU countries still look down on "Eastern Europe", although "Eastern" countries could offer the right steps against Russia. If it turns out that Russia is involved in the crash
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of the DHL flight, this is another terrorist attack by the Russian authorities, but Russia will never be recognized as a country sponsoring terrorism because it has an atomic bomb and the US wants to leave a window for negotiations with the Russian Federation. North Korea
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also has a bomb, but it was recognized as a country sponsoring terrorism. If Russia is included in this list, its economy will be finished. It will be finished sooner or later anyway, but this would speed up the process several times.
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But for now the West is not even capable of admitting that Russia has declared war on it, and therefore the number of sabotage acts will only increase.
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The Russian economy is losing momentum. Sberbank chief German Gref warned that the country is entering a period of serious challenges. Speaking at the bank’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Gref pointed to military spending, inflation, and high interest rates as key factors
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that will continue to weigh on the economy through 2026. He noted that loan quality is declining, and more individuals and businesses are seeking to restructure their debts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that senior bank executives see the risk of a banking crisis within
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the next 12 months. Unpaid loans are quietly piling up, though this has yet to show in official figures. The agency estimates that bad loans could hit 3.7 trillion rubles — about 20% of the banking sector’s capital. Much of this traces back to the war. Many soldiers received
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According to BILD, "Russia is expected to emerge stronger after the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is actively preparing for a potential invasion of NATO countries." While the Russian threat remains real, and it must not be dismissed — and we must indeed prepare for it — at
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this stage, nearly all statements about a potential Russian attack on NATO countries are nothing more than attempts to divert NATO’s attention and resources away from the war in Ukraine. Let’s look at the facts. The so-called “grand” summer offensive in the Sumy region
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stalled after just a month. Russia gathered 50,000 troops, but it has no more equipment. Its reserves are nearly depleted, while Ukraine’s arsenal is expanding — its range of weapons is growing, and its capabilities are increasing despite all the challenges with manpower.
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Ultimately, the main achievement of both Putin and Trump is that NATO has now committed to increasing annual defense spending to at least 5% of GDP by no later than 2035 — a level unseen since the Cold War. Previously, the target was just 2%. Some countries, like Estonia, 1/7
are already set to reach this threshold as early as next year. Spain opposed the move, but it is geographically the farthest from the main threat — Russia. At least, that’s how it seems to them. But one should not forget that Russia’s core strategy revolves around hybrid 2/7
threats, which have no borders. For major European countries — France, Germany, and others — the decisive factor was pressure from Trump. The war in Ukraine, ongoing since 2014, had not pushed Europe toward a more serious approach to security. While the Baltic states, Poland, 3/7
NATO suggests that Russia can sustain the war at its current pace until 2027. Of course, I may be accused of being sympathetic to Ukraine and having a biased opinion, but let’s look at the facts—what’s wrong with this statement? The Russian war machine currently relies on
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Soviet-era equipment reserves, a large number of soldiers, and the National Wealth Fund. Let’s start with the first point. Soviet equipment reserves are almost completely depleted. The offensive on Sumy is carried out mainly through infantry assaults, and the amount of
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destroyed Russian equipment in recent weeks is two to three times lower than during the same period in previous years. If Russia continues the war at the same pace, by 2027 almost all of its equipment will be gone—perhaps even the few donkeys they have. As for soldiers,
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The appointment of Robert Brovdi, known by his call sign "Madyar," as head of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine has already yielded noticeable results, according to Russian military bloggers. They report that Ukrainian drone strikes are now primarily aimed at eliminating
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Russian UAV operators. Madyar has openly declared his goal of building a "drone wall" along the entire front line and destroying up to 35,000 Russian soldiers per month—the estimated number that the Russian army can mobilize on a monthly basis. He advocates for establishing
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dedicated UAV units for each section of the front line, with operators who are intimately familiar with their own sector, rather than deploying UAV teams as a mobile reserve shuffled between hotspots. His concept is to create a continuous "kill zone" across the whole
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The war in Iran benefits Russia in the short term, but in the long run, the loss of Iran would be a major defeat for Moscow in the region, further weakening its already diminished position in the Middle East. The fall of Syria has significantly undermined Russia’s influence
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there, and Iran remains its last major ally in the region. Russia is trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of this unfavorable situation. The war in Iran distracts the West and its allies from the conflict in Ukraine, but the main gain for Russia is the rise in oil
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prices. Russia’s 2025 budget is under enormous strain because it was planned based on an oil price of $80 per barrel. However, since the summer of 2024, oil prices have been steadily falling, reaching around $50 per barrel for Urals crude in the spring of 2025. The war in
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