I recommend reading through. The overall picture is very telling.
‼️ Bankruptcies, losses, and optimization of the largest and most important enterprises and banks are happening in Russia.
In 2025, Russians will face a new series of losses and bankruptcies. The reason is not only sanctions restrictions but also growing problems inside Russia.
◾️ Rusal, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, announced the start of production optimization - it will be reduced by 250 thousand tons in the first stage. The company explained the decision of optimization by "record prices for raw materials and high risks of a continued negative macroeconomic environment."
◾️ Major Russian mining and metals company Mechel announced the suspension of one of its enterprises - Olzherasskaya-Novaya mine in Mezhdurechensk. The reason is problems with the sales market.
◾️ Major Russian corporation PJSC Gazprom made a record net loss of $6.1 billion in 2023, becoming Russia's most unprofitable company for the first time in 25 years.
◾️ ALROSA (Russian group of diamond mining companies) reduced its revenue under Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) by 30% and net profit by 3 times in 9 months. The net loss amounted to 6.5 billion rubles ($62,7 million).
◾️ Baltika brewing company is among the top ten most unprofitable companies in Russia in 2024. In 2022, the company's revenue was about 100 billion rubles ($965 million). In 2023, the net loss was 28.1 billion rubles ($271,1 million). The option of filling the budget by nationalizing profitable private enterprises has failed.
◾️ PJSC KAMAZ's net loss for the first nine months of 2024 amounted to 3.8 billion rubles ($36,6 million) against a profit of 15.8 billion rubles ($152,4 million) for the same period last year, according to financial statements published on the company's website.
◾️ AvtoVAZ automobile manufacturing company is talking about possible bankruptcy and debts of over 100 billion rubles ($965 million). This is due to the increase of the Russian key rate.
◾️ Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin is going to classify data on Russian oil exports and the production volumes of Russian refineries ostensibly to protect Russia's national interests from "unfriendly actions" by the USA and other Western countries. In reality, it is to hide the crisis in this field.
◾️ Sanctions were imposed on Gazprombank, the major bank, and fifty other banks. Sanctions were also imposed against the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS, sort of Russian analog of the international SWIFT messaging system).
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1/4 Putin does not believe in 🇷🇺 victory over Ukraine anymore. But he's not going to give up.
His plan - arms race, another mobilization, war until the last Russian soldier stands.
To Putin any option to return Crimea and Donbas is worse than millions of Russian soldiers dying.
2/4 I see two options of our quick Victory and peace afterwards:
1. Putin's death or his removal from power through a coup d'état within his environment.
Chance of mass uprising in Russia is very small - repressive machine works well, number of people ready to rebel is little.
3/4 2. Rapid offensive of 🇺🇦 Army that will encircle Donetsk agglomeration, sever so-called "corridor to Crimea", taking thousands of Russian soldiers as PoWs.
That would be a decisive loss for the Russian army and 🇷🇺 leadership.
Option 1 is preferable, opt.2 - more likely, IMO.
Dmytro Finashyn, Danylo Melnyk, Andrii Sobkovskyi, wounded 🇺🇦 Army veterans, arrived to the US for the Ukrainian Prayer Breakfast and some other important events.
They were greeted by 🇺🇦 diaspora. During their visit Heroes will share their stories and experiences.
2/8 There is no doubt that this is a carefully planned attack on the colony by 🇷🇺. There are no operational military targets for 🇺🇦 in Olenivka. Moreover, Army has all tools to identify precisely the facilities to be destroyed: ammunition depots, operational states, fuel bases.
3/8 Scale and speed of the information campaign by 🇷🇺 propagandists indicate that this was a precisely planned, organised action. We know that some of captured defenders were transferred to barracks where the hit took place a few days before. Classic, cynical false flag operation
German Chancellor @Bundeskanzler wrote an excellent column that Germany is completely revising its internal and external policies after Russia's full-scale invasion into Ukraine.
Some quotes from that column are in the thread below.
"🇷🇺 missiles have not only caused massive destruction in Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, but shattered European and international peaceful order of the past few decades."
"Letting Putin get away with it would mean that violence can break the law practically without any consequences.
"New reality includes €100 billion special fund for Bundeswehr - the biggest turnaround in security policy in Federal Republic of 🇩🇪's history."
We are supporting 🇺🇦 – will do so for as long as necessary – in economic, humanitarian, financial terms and by delivering weapons"
Top 9 geopolitical defeats for Russia: results as we are almost at 150 days of war
The situation:
On geopolitical stage since February 24, Russia had many reasons to be disappointed. Putin has practically driven himself into a blockade and does not know how to get out of it.
1/9 🇷🇺's closest allies have shown Putin that they are not ready to get involved in a war for his sake. The members of the CSTO, which includes Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, did not want to decide on peacekeeping operations outside their countries.
2/9 Putin's closest friend, Alexander Lukashenko, 🇧🇾 president, has not deployed his troops to 🇺🇦, although he was under enormous pressure from 🇷🇺. Lukashenko understands perfectly well that he will not be able to cope with the consequences in the country.