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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Nov 26 • 17 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

CANADA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 1 190 200-1 266 300

Environ 1 personne sur 43 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X 🔺
-COVID longue ~28X 🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X 🔺
-Décès ~26X 🔺This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
The english version of our regional forecast can be found here:

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

GRAVE (en hausse)

Infections pendant cette période : 10 600-11 300

Environ 1 personne sur 64 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~17X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~15X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

ÎLE DU PRINCE ÉDOUARD

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 4 400-4 700

Environ 1 personne sur 50 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~24X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 41 800-44 500

Environ 1 personne sur 32 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~30X🔺
-COVID longue ~30X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~30X🔺
-Décès ~30X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

NOUVEAU BRUNSWICK

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 23 600-25 000

Environ 1 personne sur 44 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X🔺
-COVID longue ~26X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X🔺
-Décès ~30X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : OCT 26-OCT 08, 2024

QUÉBEC

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 250 500-266 500

Environ 1 personne sur 44 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X🔺
-COVID longue ~26X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X🔺
-Décès ~28X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

ONTARIO

GRAVE (en hausse)

Infections pendant cette période : 483 000-513 900

Environ 1 personne sur 41 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~29X🔺
-COVID longue ~29X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~30X🔺
-Décès ~24X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

MANITOBA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 60 500-64 400

Environ 1 personne sur 30 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~30X🔺
-COVID longue ~30X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~30X🔺
-Décès ~30X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

SASKATCHEWAN

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 50 200-53 400

Environ 1 personne sur 30 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~30X🔺
-COVID longue ~30X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~30X🔺
-Décès ~30X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

ALBERTA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 193 100-205 500

Environ 1 personne sur 31 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~30X🔺
-COVID longue ~30X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~30X🔺
-Décès ~30X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

COLOMBIE BRITANNIQUE

GRAVE (en baisse)

Infections pendant cette période : 69 300-73 800

Environ 1 personne sur 100 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~12X🔺
-COVID longue ~12X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~20X🔺Image
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

NUNAVUT, TNO, YUKON

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 3 100-3 300

Environ 1 personne sur 46 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~25X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~27X🔺
-Décès ~26X🔺Image
L’aperçu national sur la COVID-19 au Canada se trouve ici :

Pour obtenir des liens vers des ressources, des explications sur les méthodes de prévision et des prévisions passées, veuillez consulter notre fil de discussion épinglé ici :

N'oubliez pas que les prévisions reflètent non seulement les données récentes, mais aussi les chiffres attendus pour les deux semaines à venir, sur la base des tendances moyennes sur cinq semaines.

La prochaine prévision sera disponible le 8 décembre 2024.

Merci à @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @truthseeker_dl @Allene__Scott pour la saisie des données, les graphiques, et la traduction.

Merci à toute l'équipe de @covid_19_canada pour les commentaires hebdomadaires et pour la poursuite de notre travail.

#EnsembleNousPouvons
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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~28X higher
-Hospitalizations ~29X higher
-Deaths ~26X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (increasing)

Estimated infections this week: 10,600-11,300

About 1 in every 64 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~17X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~15X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 17.5 About 1 of every 64 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 10,600 - 11,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 20.4X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines e...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 27.3 - SEVERE Alberta: 30.0 - SEVERE British Columbia: 16.1- SEVERE Manitoba: 30.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 28.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 17.5 -SEVERE North: 25.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 30.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 27.4 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 26.2 - SEVERE Quebec: 27.9 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 30.0 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) F...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is increasing 2%/week (-5% to +8%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 43 people are currently infected (~175,000 infections/day).

A new surge/wave has started, later than usual for this time of year in many provinces. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 14 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
Read 13 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 17
Parking lot Visits in Your Cars
-FYI- This thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading. Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…

One of our volunteers wanted to know the risks of meeting their friends in a parking lot, with their cars side by side. How much risk happens in the air transfer between cars? What a great question!

The answer is – not much!

This scenario used the Average Canadian High Risk family this time, since they are more inclined to need and want to take extra precautions while still socializing.A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Parking lot Visit in Your Cars Text in light blue coloured box, subtitle: Is it safe to visit between cars? Yes! Text: Rendezvous together to visit with friends, chat in your cars. Image: 2 cars next to Parking sign, red car facing right, blue car facing left. Speech bubbles float above cars. Image credit: created by vectorportal.com Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Text in light blue coloured box: Activity Risks Two people in each car, windows down, heat on in cars if i...
The answer is – not much!

This scenario used the Average Canadian High Risk family this time, since they are more inclined to need and want to take extra precautions while still socializing.

OK, what’s a “car visit”?
Imagine two parked cars:
* Facing opposite directions
* Cars about 1.5 to 2 metres apart
* Driver windows opposite each other
* It it’s cold, heater may be on
We roll down the drivers’ windows and visit!

This is quite safe, as shown in the data cards.
Enjoy a very low risk way to share each other’s company.A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Parking lot Visit in Your Cars Text in light blue coloured box, subtitle: Is it safe to visit between cars? Yes! Text: Rendezvous together to visit with friends, chat in your cars. Image: two cars next to Parking sign, red car facing right, blue car facing left. Speech bubbles float above cars. Image credit: created by vectorportal.com Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Text in light blue coloured box: Activity Risks Two people in each car, windows down, heat on in cars if ...
We don’t have alt text for our tables yet but we’re working on it.
For curiosity and data diving, by comparison, what if all 4 people were in one car?

That’s the second data card. Lots of red and big numbers of risk.

The Good air numbers are with windows open and those numbers are scary high for all but those wearing the best mask. Poor air estimates are with the windows closed.

Because the car is not moving, even with all the windows open there is very little air exchange.

Sitting in a parked car with several other people for any real length of time is Not a good idea!We don’t have alt text for our tables yet but we’re working on it.
Read 5 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 11
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~23X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 24.1 About 1 of every 31 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 22.8X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 23.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 26.8X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-t...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 7,200-15,800

About 1 in every 48 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~14X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 13.3 About 1 of every 48 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 7,200 - 15,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 12.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 15.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH; 13.5X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines...
Read 16 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 11
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 9-22, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: NL
HIGH: none
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 31 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 9-22, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 24.1 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 20.3- SEVERE Manitoba: 33.1 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 27.1 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 13.3 - VERY HIGH North: 24.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 25.6 - SEVERE Ontario: 19.9 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 16.4 - SEVERE Quebec: 29.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 29.9 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) F...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is increasing 1%/week (-3% to +5%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 31 people are currently infected (~190,516 infections/day).

The confidence interval for infection estimates is wide this week (-/+ 37%), due to considerable fluctuation in waste water.

Model infection estimates usually increase before waste water signal and we may be at starting a new surge.Graph showing estimated new daily infections for Canada, the provinces, and territories (5 week rolling averages) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 14 (Infections)
Read 10 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 4
INFLUENZA VS COVID-19 DEATHS IN CANADA
This thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading.
Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast

#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #MaskUp #YallMasking #CleanTheAir
(Liz)lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…Image
Image
What is the proportion of influenza deaths to COVID-19 deaths currently? Thanks for asking!

This week's illustration compares annual deaths from influenza and COVID-19 in Canada.

There are about 3,500 flu deaths each year in Canada.

From 2022 onward, there have been at least 45,000 untimely ("from") COVID-19 deaths each year in Canada.

The number of people who die from influenza each year would fill the Agnico Eagle arena in Val d’Or QC.

The minimum number of people in Canada who die prematurely from COVID-19 each year would fill the Rogers Arena (SkyDome) in Toronto.
#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #MaskUp #YallMasking #CleanTheAir
How many lives could we save each year in Canada with COVID-19 vaccinations?

If everyone 65+ is vaccinated every 3 months we'd save at least 32,850 lives.

If everyone 40+ is vaccinated every 6 months we'd save at least 28,350 lives.

If everyone (all ages) is vaccinated every 12 months we'd save at least 22,500 lives.

#CovidIsAirborne #CovidIsntOver #MaskUp #YallMasking #CleanTheAir
Read 7 tweets

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