A single fairly unknown Dutch company makes maybe the most expensive and complex non-military device ($200M) that builds on 40 years of Physics and has a monopoly responsible for all AI advancement today.
Here's the story of ASML, the company powering Moore's Law..
1/9
ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines are engineering marvels.
They shoot molten tin droplets 50,000x/s with a 25kW laser turning it into plasma as hot as the sun's surface to create 13.5nm UV light —so energetic it's absorbed by air itself.
2/9
Each $200M machine contains mirrors that are the smoothest objects humans have ever created.
They're made with layers of molybdenum/silicon, each just a few atoms thick. If you scaled one to the size of Germany, its largest imperfection would be 1mm high.
3/9
This light goes through the mirrors onto moving 300mm silicon wafers at highway speeds (~1m/s) with precision better than the width of a SINGLE SILICON ATOM (0.2nm).
That's like hitting a target in SF from NYC with the accuracy of a human hair.
4/9
TSMC's 4nm process for NVIDIA H100 needs ~15 EUV layers (+80 DUV layers).
Each layer must align within nanometers. One machine processes ~100 wafers/hr. Cost? About $150K of chips per hour.
Other techniques cannot get the quality + throughput + cost to this level.
5/9
40 years of co-development, 40,000 patents, 700+ suppliers. They own 24.9% of Zeiss's semiconductor div.
Replication would take decades + $100B+.
6/9
The complexity is astounding.
Each machine ships in 40 containers and takes 4 months to install. The supply chain spans 700+ companies. 100K+ parts per machine, 40K patents protecting it.
One missing component = global semiconductor disruption.
7/9
Only three companies can run cutting-edge EUV:
— TSMC (that makes GPUs for Nvidia)
— Samsung
— Intel.
ASML machines are the only way to make chips dense enough for modern AI. Each H100 has 80B transistors. The next gen will need >100B.
Impossible without EUV.
8/9
Rich Sutton's "The Bitter Lesson" is that general methods that leverage
computation and Moore's Law are the most effective for advancing AI research.
In the iceberg of AI technology, while LLMs are at the top, ASML is at the murky depths.
It has kept Moore's Law alive.
9/9
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Starlink is one of the seminal feats of engineering in history.
It will enable internet that's
— fast 100-300mbps
— uncensored
— cheap $1500/yr
in:
— the most remote areas
— ships in the ocean
— airplanes in the sky
— poles
But few even know what this picture is..
1/10
Traditional satellite internet uses geostationary orbit (GEO) - satellites at 36,000km altitude. The physics is simple but the latency is brutal: 600ms+ for signals to make the round trip.
Online gaming? Video calls? Forget it.
2/10
Starlink's solution?
Build a mesh network at 550km altitude with satellites moving at 27,000 km/h. Your data packets are bouncing between thousands of satellites, each serving 2,000+ users. The engineering complexity is insane.
— Cap-exempt H-1B (no lottery) applies to more companies
— Founders can self-petition and own >50%
— Easier hiring for startups
— F-1 students get cap-gap until April 1
— Crack down on IT consulting fraud
Let's get into it 🧵
1/7
More orgs are cap-exempt employers.
Beyond the 85k H-1B limit, certain employers could bypass the lottery. Now the definition changes from "primarily engaged" in research to it being a "fundamental activity", unlocking more companies. Part-time work is allowed.
2/7
Immigrant founders can go through H-1B despite owning >50%
One huge drawback of an O-1 is that spouses can't work so for founders with spouses, this is huge. The H-1B will only be valid for 18mos at first
3/7
o1-preview is far superior to doctors on reasoning tasks and it's not even close, according to OpenAI's latest paper.
AI does ~80% vs ~30% on the 143 hard NEJM CPC diagnoses.
It's dangerous now to trust your doctor and NOT consult an AI model.
Here are some actual tasks:
1/5
Here's an example case looking at phosphate wasting and elevated FGF23, then proceeded to imaging to localize a potential tumor.
o1-preview suggested testing plan takes a broader, more methodical approach, systematically ruling out other causes of hypophosphatemia.
2/5
For persistent, unexplained hyperammonemia, o1-preview recommends a prioritized expansion of tests—from basic immunoglobulins and electrolytes to advanced imaging, breath tests for SIBO and specialized GI biopsies—ensuring more common causes are checked first.