PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Nov 25, 2024
About 1 in 118 people in the U.S. are estimated to be actively infectious with Covid.
If gathering with 10 people for the holiday, know there's about an 8% chance at least one person would have Covid if no testing/isolation. 🦃
Looking ahead, the best case scenario for Christmas would be similar to the Y1 winter wave or a median (typical) summer wave. Worst case, close to the median for the winter, much like 2 years ago.
Info for new readers:
For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data
The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.
Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…
Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link. We will have a pre-print out in the next month or two documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates.
Likely no report next week while I'm on a very Covid-safe holiday weekend. I'll Tweet an update if CDC/Biobot post data.
About 1 in 118 people in the U.S. are estimated to be actively infectious with Covid.
If gathering with 10 people for the holiday, know there's about an 8% chance at least one person would have Covid if no testing/isolation. 🦃
Looking ahead, the best case scenario for Christmas would be similar to the Y1 winter wave or a median (typical) summer wave. Worst case, close to the median for the winter, much like 2 years ago.
Info for new readers:
For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data
The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.
Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…
Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link. We will have a pre-print out in the next month or two documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates.
Likely no report next week while I'm on a very Covid-safe holiday weekend. I'll Tweet an update if CDC/Biobot post data.
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