Thread by @revishvilig

UP's must-read interview Company commander of the Achilles battalion Anton Shmagailo about the situation in the Kupayansk direction:

Of the 10 enemy infantrymen advancing to storm the tree lines, only one or two survive. 1/32⬇️

During mechanized assaults, the survival rate may be slightly higher.

The overall picture is clear: the enemy shows complete disregard for losses, both in manpower and equipment, as they continue their attempts to advance on the Kupiansk axis. 2/32

Looking at the map, our stronghold stretches along the left bank of the Oskil River, divided in two.

I do not foresee the enemy attempting to cross the river in this area anytime soon. 3/32

Their current priority appears to be the occupation of the left bank of the Kupiansk region and breaking through toward Borova. 4/32

Previously, Russian command reportedly tasked its frontline troops with capturing Kupiansk by November 1 of this year. However, all their attempts have been successfully repelled by our defense forces. 5/32

Recently, the occupiers attempted a bold rush into the city itself, bypassing our combat positions. They even managed to break through. However, within an hour, all the vehicles that penetrated our lines were destroyed, and the infantry was either captured or eliminated. 6/32

Under the threat of execution for failing their mission, the enemy often resorts to "kamikaze" tactics, fully aware that survival is unlikely either way. Currently, the enemy is attempting "creeping assaults," trying to advance close enough to bring the city under fire control. 7

Some claim that Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi is strategically vital for the enemy because it serves as a key railway junction and the railway is a primary supply route for the Russian army. That’s not entirely accurate. 8/32

While Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi is indeed a significant and strategically important transportation hub on the left bank, the railway itself is not operational—at least for now. 9/32

As someone with railway expertise, I can confidently say that no railways within 20 kilometers of the front line are currently functional. Forget about them—for the moment. 10/32

The enemy’s objective is clearly not to cross the Oskil River and push toward Kharkiv—that’s an unrealistic scenario. More likely, their plan is to secure the Oskil bridgehead, advance toward Izium, and then move further toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. 11/32

The enemy rarely assaults major cities head-on; instead, they attempt flanking maneuvers. But to execute such a strategy, they first need to create the flanks. This, however, is just a hypothesis about their intentions—a plan that will be extremely difficult to implement. 12/32

Every meter of Ukrainian land, particularly in the Kupiansk sector, comes at an extraordinarily high cost for them. We are destroying their armored vehicles on an almost industrial scale nearly every day. 13/32

This sector is defended by several formidable Ukrainian units which, unfortunately, are outnumbered by enemy forces. The mission of the "Achilles" strike UAV battalion is to significantly enhance the firepower of the brigades holding this line. 14/32

Our forces are up against the bulk of the large Zapad military grouping, composed of units formed in Russia’s western regions. These troops are well-equipped. 15/32

For example, where the enemy might deploy 2–3 tanks on a given sector of the Bakhmut front, on the Kupiansk front, they deploy 6–8 tanks for a similar engagement. Here’s an example: to enter the village of Krugliakivka, the enemy lost dozens of armored vehicles. 16/32

Fighting for Krugliakivka has been ongoing for months. A particularly notable episode occurred on September 26, when the enemy launched an assault involving 50 pieces of equipment, including tanks, IFVs, APCs, and multipurpose transporters. 17/32

The assault on September 26 was reminiscent of the early days of the full-scale invasion when Russian forces advanced in long columns through Ukraine. In 2023–2024, I cannot recall any assault matching this scale and persistence. 18/32

Around 3 a.m., our reconnaissance unit spotted the first enemy column approaching the outskirts of the village of Pishchane. The next two days were incredibly intense. 19/32

Typically, assaults last about one and a half to two hours, but this time the enemy launched wave after wave for an extended period. They were trying to break through the front line and rush into the villages of Kovsharivka and Krugliakivka. 20/32

We completely dismantled their plans, neutralized every wave, and prevented the enemy from engaging in close combat with Ukrainian infantry.
Our FPV drones and strike bombers took out 40 pieces of enemy equipment—a record. 21/32

The enemy is constantly learning, and this can be illustrated with a clear example. The previous record for destroyed enemy equipment in a single day by the "Achilles" strike UAV battalion was set in April 2024 during the battles for Chasiv Yar. 22/32

Back then, we destroyed 10 vehicles, including five BMD-2s and four BMP-2s. Comparing that April engagement to the September one shows that repelling assaults has become significantly more challenging. 23/32

The enemy has improved their defenses, particularly their electronic warfare (EW) systems, which now severely complicate our operations. In April, it took 5–6 FPV drones to destroy a tank. Today, it takes more than 10. Each successful hit is now a major achievement. 24/32

In 2022, Russian armored vehicles lacked EW systems. By 2023, they began equipping their vehicles with them, and those systems have since become increasingly advanced. Today, EW on their tanks operates across a wide range of frequencies. 25/32

There are the so-called "grill tanks," or "turtles" (sometimes referred to as "barn tanks"). These initially provoked laughter, but underestimating them is a mistake. 26/32

To counter these fortresses, FPV pilots are continuously refining their skills, particularly in targeting techniques. However, hitting these vehicles is becoming increasingly difficult, and unfortunately, many drones are lost in the process. 27/32

Furthermore, fiber-optic drones are set to become a key component in FPV drone development. They will likely see widespread use by the Defense Forces as early as spring 2025. 28/32

The fact that the enemy disregards losses can hardly be called its strength. It is not strength; it is their advantage at this particular moment. Their human resources are also finite. 29/32

The overall situation is indeed challenging right now. Despite massive losses, as I have mentioned before, the enemy continues to receive reinforcements. They show no regard for their personnel, especially considering the quality of that personnel. 30/32

These people are mostly uneducated and poorly trained. During interrogations, captured soldiers who were recently forced into assaults reveal that their training lasted less than a week. In other words, Russia is simply driving its masses to their deaths. 31/32

Currently, the enemy is attempting to achieve success on the front at any cost, including in the Kupiansk direction. However, a large-scale offensive operation by the Russian army will eventually come to an end. 32/32

Extra: War is an endless series of lessons, and we do not know what the next lesson will be—for us or for the enemy.

Source: pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2…

@threadreaderapp "unroll"