Going to just drop the map first. Let it wash over you. Get all of your instant visceral reactions out of the way. Will walk through the data I looked at to lead me here in a bit.
The margins I came to on two of these make me somewhat uncertain of those specific states, but even if both go to either Harris or Trump, the victory still goes to Trump, even if a bit more narrow.
A reminder that I have no idea what I'm doing, and anyone who tweets about the data also has no idea what they're doing unless their first name is Nate (there's more than one!) or they do election data science for a living.
This post is part of a broader problem in the media.
The threats are *not okay*, but the take from the media is "This is because of statements by Trump and Vance."
First, it's almost insinuating Trump and Vance themselves made up the stories.
But second, it assumes that there would be zero societal unease if it wasn't for Trump and Vance. The people of Springfield would be living in perfect harmony with 20,000 (in a town that was only 60,000 large) displaced immigrants suddenly appearing in their streets.
Harris is spending INSANE amounts of money here (North Georgia). Almost every break on every station there was a Harris ad, and some of them were a minute long.
Holy crap.
I haven’t seen a politician go this hard with ads ever in my life.
Perhaps he's fine. Perhaps nothing is wrong at all. Perhaps he's just sad that he had to quit.
But so much of it makes no sense.
Announcing you're suspending your reelection campaign via tweet and informing your cabinet about it with a messenger and not in person? Really fuckin' weird!
But then so many others say he called them and spoke with them.
I can't square the circle folks.
The "drop it on twitter" is the most Gen Z nonsense I've ever heard, and Biden's even older than Boomers. Hate the guy all you want but he still played the game with proper decorum.
I can't imagine Biden himself approved this messaging avenue. But hell I dunno anymore.