It's time for the annual "Where's the White Male" contest.

Also known as the GoodReads Choice Awards.

No, really, where are the white males? Let's see... First category, Fiction.

White men: 0

Feeling super confident in my Georgia prediction after cruising the neighborhood tonight and talking to all the neighbors. Could be wrong who knows but it feels even more right than it did when I ran the numbers.

Prediction time!

Going to just drop the map first. Let it wash over you. Get all of your instant visceral reactions out of the way. Will walk through the data I looked at to lead me here in a bit. The margins I came to on two of these make me somewhat uncertain of those specific states, but even if both go to either Harris or Trump, the victory still goes to Trump, even if a bit more narrow.

Okay let's look at a few scenarios.

First, the current "no tossups" scenario--if all polls are accurate and we average them out (the RCP method), we're here.

Comfortable Trump victory. Now, what if the polls are off as much in 2024 as they were in 2020?

Same exact thing.

Which means no other states outside the main 7 battlegrounds identified this year were close enough for the polling error to impact them.

Let me start this thread by saying I don't hate anyone, and I don't wish violence upon anyone, regardless of race, creed, or immigration status.

Now, let us start to look at what is going on, because it's not good--and the media is going to only tell you one side of the story.

https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1834247008409788689

This post is part of a broader problem in the media.

The threats are *not okay*, but the take from the media is "This is because of statements by Trump and Vance."

First, it's almost insinuating Trump and Vance themselves made up the stories.

Back from the sports bar for dinner.

Harris is spending INSANE amounts of money here (North Georgia). Almost every break on every station there was a Harris ad, and some of them were a minute long.

Holy crap. I haven’t seen a politician go this hard with ads ever in my life.

Perhaps he's fine. Perhaps nothing is wrong at all. Perhaps he's just sad that he had to quit.

But so much of it makes no sense. Announcing you're suspending your reelection campaign via tweet and informing your cabinet about it with a messenger and not in person? Really fuckin' weird!

But then so many others say he called them and spoke with them.

I can't square the circle folks.

Shit they forced him to delete Someone doxxed him. Not sharing because I don't want the info getting out. Assholes. Absolute assholes.

As someone with extensive IT experience, I can almost guarantee the AT&T outage yesterday was over some certificate expiring somewhere and nobody knowing how to regenerate it because Carl got laid off seven years ago and the only machine with the keys decommissioned in 2019. This is way more plausible than MUH RUSSIANS or SOLARFLARES or whatever other conspiracy lunacy is going around.

I feel like people used to be made of tougher stuff.

I don't mean to minimize anyone's trauma--i've got my fair share--but it seems like everyone I bump into these days has some debilitating childhood trauma these days.

Have we forgotten how to move on? How did we used to get through tough times? Have we made it too easy to be weak?

I have a theory, and it's that we've forgotten the face of God.

When I say our grocery bill has doubled, I'm not making that up. Is it exactly a 100% increase in the past few years? No. But it's really close. I know, because I do the shopping. Telling me "Actually grocery prices have only gone up 20%" doesn't work.

I have a theory why. For starters, not all grocery trips are equal. Not all families buy the same things.

If we look at the average uptick in the American consumer's grocery bill, what is in that cart? Are we talking cases of processed foods? Raw ingredients? Fresh fruits and vegetables? Organics?

For about 8 centuries, from the Heian period until the end of the Sengoku period, just about every man in Japan carried a sword. The Sengoku period, especially, was complete hell for Japan. The entire island was a mess of little warring feudal states led by powerful warlords. Some vying for control of a unified Japan, others fighting just to survive. In the late 16thcentury, one man came very close to achieving his goal of unifying the country – Takeda Shingen.

Do you know what the phrase "well-regulated" means in 1780s English?

Or do you assume it means "legislatively restricted" now? Did the original intent change over time with the language?

Because it... does not mean that at all in 1780s English.

https://twitter.com/kiswanson/status/1674246316929560577

The phrase "well-regulated" does not refer in any way, shape, or form, to a set of rules and regulations.

It means something that "is in proper working order"

Some examples from the OED, throughout the years will follow.

Here’s what you ghouls don’t understand.

I will accept one 10 year old forced to give birth to her father’s child every year to stop 30k+ other abortions. Ideally we’d prevent that situation from ever happening as well, but I understand we live in a world of trade offs and I’m willing to play ball.