Thread by @RaduHossu

What's happening in Romania. An analysis for the rest of the world:

On 11/24/2024 we had the first round of the presidential election. In Romania, the voting system states that the top two contenders qualify for the second round, where whoever wins 50%+1 of the votes becomes president.🧵👇

2/21 Romania is a semi-presidential Republic from a constitutional perspective, but from a practical perspective it is rather semi-parliamentarist, meaning that it is the Parliament that actually has the power to appoint the Government (in consultation with the President of the Republic, but the President is compelled to accept the proposals of a parliamentary majority), but also has the power to dismiss the Government by a motion of no confidence.

3/21 The Romanian Government is a bicephalous one, with the President being part of the Executive branch alongside the primus inter pares, the Prime Minister. The President of Romania is responsible for the defense of the country, being the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, and is in charge of foreign policy. The President can, under very special circumstances, dissolve Parliament.

On Nov. 24, Romanians elected in first place (according to the number of votes) a certain individual Călin Georgescu (independent) 22.94%

4/21 and in second place Elena Lasconi 19.18%

5/21 candidate of USR, a relatively new party, part of the European political family Renew (which also includes the party of Zelensky, Marcon, Guy Verhofstadt). The Prime Minister of the Social Democratic Party (PSD - PES family) Marcel Ciolacu (19,15%), the extremist George Simion (AUR - ECR family) 13,86%, the former Prime Minister General Nicolae Ciucă (PNL - PPE family) 8,79% and Mircea Geoană (former Deputy SecGen NATO) did not qualify for the second round.

6/21 Who is Călin Georgescu, what are his visions and why is he a danger for Romania, Ukraine and EU stability?

This independent candidate is an individual with Putinist visions assumed through public statements ("Romania needs Russia's wisdom"), close to Aleksandr Dughin, who visited Romania at his invitation several years ago. His political background goes back to the communist era of Ceausescu and continued in the background after the 90s.

7/21 He argues that Ukraine should no longer be helped as it is an artificial state, has mystical world views, believes that mankind never reached the moon, is anti-vaxxer and a supporter of every world conspiracy you can think of. He has repeatedly declared that the US missile defense shield at Deveselu, Romania (part of Aegis Ashore) is "a diplomatic embarrassment for Romania".

8/21 He has an assumed anti-Western, Christian-mystical discourse and has had a criminal case opened in Romania for supporting a fascist leader (Iron Guard leader, an inter-war fascist political party, remembered for its assassinations against intellectuals) Corneliu Zelea-Codreanu and Marshal Antonescu (the head of the Romanian government during the period of the alliance with Adolf Hitler's Nazi Germany), both guilty of crimes against humanity, Antonescu being also guilty for the Romanian Holocaust.

9/21 How and why was this person voted?

In democratic Romania (post 1990 Revolution), the reminiscences of the communist-nationalist education system continued to shape public discourse. Romanian exceptionalism, part of Ceausescu's ideology, which said that we were the first civilization in Europe, the most important, the most dignified and the most deserving, and for this reason we were also the most oppressed, together with the economic crisis that followed the fall of the communist system, led to the coagulation of extremist ideas.

10/21 The extremist element in Romania, sometimes anti-Semitic, sometimes chauvinist (anti-Magyar) and generally with fascist leanings, represented about 20-30% of the voter mass (be careful not to confuse voters with population). In the 2000 election year, Romanians had to choose in the second round of the presidential election between Ion Iliescu (PDSR - the post-communist leader) and Corneliu Vadim Tudor (the Great Romania Party - you can tell from the name that he is the extremist).

11/21 Romanians mobilized and did not give Vadim Tudor a chance, even though Iliescu was seen as a product of communism.

Subsequently, in 2020, the AUR party (Alliance for the Union of Romanians - are you seeing the pattern yet? The Great Romania, United Romanians), basically the forerunner of Corneliu Vadim Tudor's Great Romania Party, enters parliament. In its first year, an extremely toxic character, an individual by the name of Diana Șoșoaca (then a member of the Romanian Parliament, now an MEP), broke away from it and set up her own party, SOS.

12/21 Diana Șoșoacă is one of the exponents of Putinism, Dughinism and neo-communism with Christian overtones in Romania. Before the first round of elections on November 24, Romania's Constitutional Court invalidated Diana Șoșoacă's candidacy on the basis of anti-Semitic, fascist statements inciting racial hatred and violence. Thus, her electoral base (8-10%) should have been directed towards the other two candidates who are exponents of extremism: George Simion (AUR) or Călin Georgescu (independent).

13/21 George Simion toned down his speech during the campaign, which did not please Diana Șoșoaca, who called him a traitor to the ideals they share. At the same time, in the Tiktok environment, Călin Georgescu was growing under the radar of sociological studies (which gave him 1-2%), benefiting from the frustration of extremists over the Constitutional Court's decision in the Șoșoacă case, but especially from the support of some troll farms and boot networks.

14/21 In the last week of the campaign before the first round of the elections, I talked to several heads of polling houses who told me that "Houston, we have a problem": Călin Georgescu was inexplicably increasing in the polls by 3-4% every day. On Nov. 22, the latest sociological calibration poll put Călin Georgescu at 13% at one of the most important polling houses in Romania.

15/21 So how did he come to be voted by 23% of Romanians? The answer is extremely complex, but the important factors are as follows: the decades-long failure of the state education system, coupled with the moral bankruptcy of the political class in recent years, and the disappointment of the new, clean parties. On top of this has been superimposed an online campaign via Tiktok (and in part Telegram), which has far too many similarities with what we find in the Gherasimov doctrine of asymmetric warfare, hybrid actions and information attacks.

16/21 Thus, social frustration (understandable), coupled with a lack of understanding of the national and international context (lack of education), plus an extremely well-developed manipulation campaign (Tiktok) have led to the creation of this political product.

Călin Georgescu is a tool in Russia's asymmetric, hybrid war against the European Union and Russia's intention is to destabilize Romania politically, economically and socially. This election hacking operation is part of a plan which has already had several successes: Hungary and Slovakia.

17/21 Romania is an important NATO logistical hub, it is home to the largest American military base in Europe (currently the second largest, but it is developing as we speak) and it is an extremely important economic route for the Ukrainian economy. Also in Romania, the Cincu base is home to one of NATO's permanent battle group, part of the Enhanced Forward Presence on the eastern flank, coordinated by France, with almost 5000 soldiers from Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Poland, Portugal, United States.

18/21 At the same time, Romania is a big brother of the Republic of Moldova (being two countries with related peoples where the official language is Romanian) and a supporter of Ukraine, having signed a strategic partnership agreement with the latter.

Who is Elena Lasconi, Călin Georgescu's opponent?

Mayor of a city of 30,000 inhabitants, 25 years in the largest press trust in Romania, reporter. With no political background, recognized as the most honest competitor, supported by the USR party, a new party with no political experience.

19/21 Elena Lasconi, my colleague, has been criticized for her lack of knowledge in the field of foreign policy (prerogative of the President). She has strong pro-US, pro-NATO and pro-Ukraine views. She claimed in the debates before the first round that if she wins the presidency, she will support Ukraine and will fight for broader and bolder support from NATO partners so that Ukraine never has to give up its territories.

20/21 Following numerous complaints from state institutions about a potential attack by state and non-state actors against the electoral process in Romania and thus against the democratic system, President Klaus Iohannis convened the Supreme Council for National Defense (CSAT) for 28.11

21/21 at 14:00, and the Romanian Constitutional Court (CCR) will judge tomorrow two complaints about possible fraud or illegalities in the first round of elections.

Parliamentary elections will be held in Romania on December 1 and, if the CCR validates the first round, the second round of the presidential election between Călin Georgescu and Elena Lasconi will be held on December 8. Elena Lasconi is the candidate

That is pretty much the situation. Extremely, extremely serious!