Thread by @ReneDuba

The Ruble doesn't find support. It entered into a fee fall. Now Russia has stopped trading. This means that the exchange rate will just SEEM to have stabilised, but that's not the case. The Ruble has become a 'black market only' currency.

What's a free fall?

1/
pic: Moscow

It means the value goes down and nothing stabilises it, nothing moves it up. It means the Ruble is not supported anymore. Not by foreign buyers who need Rubles to buy Russian exports. And not by short term measures of the Russian Central Bank.

For instance [..]

2/

[..] the Russian Central Bank buying Rubles with Dollars. Bank president Nabiullina doesn't anymore.

Maybe the coffers are empty, maybe she just decided that throwing good money after a collapsing Ruble makes no sense.

So what did they do?

3/

Nabiullina is highly regarded in the West as a central banker who knows what she is doing. She could keep up appearances of a Russian economy doing fine, even if everyone knew this was impossible.

But the means for her to do so are being exhausted increasingly rapidly.

4/

Russia stopped free trading of the Ruble on the exchange. It means the Ruble is now predominantly a 'black market' currency.

The exchange rate remains sort of frozen there but most people can't sell Rubles there anymore.

You want Dollars or Euros?
Black market is you goto.

5/

We are looking at the monetary collapse of Russia.

Russians brought their money to Cyprus, but the 'Golden Passports' have been withdrawn.

pic: putting your money in real estate in Cyprus

6/

Or Almaty, Kazachstan

7/

Or Turkey, where Russians are now the predominant buyers of real estate (not even the Turkish people themselves)

The Russian economy, including the Ruble, is collapsing. Capital flight... The oligarchs had long since fled, now the middle class follows suit.

Collapse.

8/8