ADVICE FROM A HALF-CENTURY FUTURES MARKET TRADER
Is your desire to trade futures for a living? Here are XX things you must understand to make it
1 of 23
Thread to follow ⬇️⬇️🧵🧵
1. Have realistic expectations on success. The world's best traders achieve 40% annual RORs. Aspiring traders who think 10X is possible every year will become rekt - this has my guarantee
2. Give yourself time. In my experience and observations it takes 3 to 5 years to understand market speculation and another five years to polish an approach with an edge
3. Long term success does NOT come from figuring out where a market is headed, but from developing and implementing a trading process. An individual trade is unimportant
4. CUT LOSSES QUICKLY AND HAVE SOME MECHANISM FOR ALLOWING A PROFITABLE TRADE TO BECOME MORE PROFITABLE. Nothing is more important than these two things
5. Day trading is a sucker's bet. I will not delve into this, but the odds are stacked against becoming a wealthy day trader. Learn to hold positions overnight, over weekends and over many weeks. If you plan to day trade, do yourself a favor and quit now
6. To quit your day job to becoming a career trader, here are guidelines
-All your acct capital must represent past trading profits
-Expect first year to be unprofitable (Murphy's Law)
-Have enough set aside apart from trading capital to pay for living expenses for 2 years
7. Profits come from process -- break trading down into as many component steps as possible and focus on becoming excellent at each
8. Your human emotions and character defects will attempt to sabotage you at every turn. Successful trading is an upstream swing against human nature
9. Learn what your particular "sweet spot" trade is. Then test it and get to know it better than you know your spouse. Learn its personality and quirks.
10. ROR and Sharpe are NOT very important performance metrics. Gain-to-Pain, Profit Factor, EV over many many trades, Calmar ratio and Pareto ratio and Calmar ratio.
THESE NEXT FEW ARE ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL and have been reserved for those of you with patience.
11. IF YOUR DISPOSITION CANNOT TAKE LOSSES IN STRIDE, SAVE YOURSELF FRUSTRATION AND QUIT NOW.
12. CAREER TRADERS GET PAID FOR PULLING THE TRIGGER AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN, not for being right on the next trade or series of trades
13. LEARN TO TURN OFF YOUR COMPUTER DURING ACTIVE TRADING HOURS. WITHOUT LEARNING THIS, ALL THAT CAME PRIOR IN THIS STRING OF X POSTS DO NOT MATTER
14. LEARN PROPER SIZING REPRESENTED BY THE % OF YOUR TOTAL NOMINAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL RISKED PER TRADE (and composite of highly correlated trades). Most pros with proven techniques risk less than 1% of total capital per trade. Risk 5% or 10% and your are history already
15. ACCEPT THAT SUCCESSFUL TRADING IS A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT. Unless you are married to a neurosurgeon who can support your learning curve, building an adequate amt of capital takes time. Olympic athletes become Olympians because they dedicated their lives to become great
16. SUCCESSFUL TRADING IS A STREAKY THING. Don't create a spending budget that assumes trading is an annuity. There will be losing streaks, weeks, months, and, sorry, maybe even years (I've had 5 losing years since 1975)
17. LEARN HUMILITY AND SELF FORGIVENESS. You will need both traits. Speaking of humility, those on social media who brag about their big profits should be avoided at all costs. They are not your idols.
18. HAVE A LIFE SEPARATE FROM TRADING. Trade for a living, do NOT live to trade. Find human worth in your family and friends and doing good for others. That is how life is meant to be lived.
19. DON'T TAKE THE RESULTS OF TRADES PERSONALLY. The markets do not know you or care for who you are. So, why would you take the markets seriously?
20. AS A NOVICE, EXPECT % OF CAPITAL DRAW-DOWNS ANNUALLY EQUAL TO AT LEAST WHAT YOUR PROFIT EXPECTATION MIGHT BE.
21. OBSESS OVER DETAILS. THE DETAILS OF A TRADING OPERATION ARE WHERE EDGES CAN BE DEVELOPED.
22. IF YOUR GOAL IS TO TURN SOME SMALL AMT OF CAPITAL INTO A FORTUNE, THEN YOU HAVE LOST ALREADY. Your goal must be to challenge yourself to become excellent in the small things. Profits will take care of themselves. Focus on process, not profits.
23. YOU MUST DEVELOP YOUR OWN STYLE. It is OK to borrow techniques from other traders, but make those things your own. It is impossible to copy-cat another trader.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
B I T C O I N $BTC
There are numerous ways to determine targets. One variable is whether semi-log or linear scale is used
Target of 94,000 is measured move of triangle projected from breakout level on semi-log
⬇️ 🧵 1/3
A swing target can also be determined by projecting the Nov 2022 low to Mar 2024 high upwards from Aug 2024 low as shown also on log scale
For now I think this is a stretch
My rule is one target at a time 2/3 ⬇️🧵
3/3 I also presented a possible target in a Jun blog post titled "The beautiful symmetry of past $BTC bull market cycles," see link here
Enjoy
Of course all of these targets could be wrong
Thus, I always trade with risk management in mind peterlbrandt.com/the-beautiful-…
Reflections of a 50-year Commodity Trader
I refer to raw material commodities as "popcorn" markets. The kernel pops, hits the lid and returns down immediately.
Commodity prices return to the "production cost" of the most efficient producer
Red line is current price
Cotton $CT_F
Natural Gas $NG_F
Corn prices readjusted to a higher zone beginning in 2007 $ZC_F