Thread by @joni_askola

1/17 The wannabe strategic thinker who often backs the wrong horse: Putin has created global chaos and is now too weak to manage the consequences, relegating russia to a pitiful pawn that china uses to cause more chaos and confront the West

2/17 When you create a mess, you ultimately face the repercussions. Putin has extended his reach too far in various areas, and now russia finds itself engulfed in chaos that is beyond its capacity to manage, leaving it too diminished and vulnerable to regain control.

3/17 russia's situation has deteriorated on every front compared to just a few years ago. NATO has expanded to its largest size yet, now sharing more borders with russia than ever before. Additionally, russia's economy is overheating due to a war it cannot win.

4/17 russia is fully committed to Ukraine while being overstretched in other regions. Consequently, there is turmoil in Ukraine, Syria, Armenia, Myanmar, Sudan, and several other areas where russia is either facing defeat or has chosen the wrong side.

5/17 Putin was performing quite well from a purely strategic, non-moral perspective in his foreign interventions until he overstepped his bounds by initiating an unwinnable full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

6/17 After nearly three years and despite its full commitment, russia has failed to invade any of the 23 regional capitals and special status cities that Ukraine held at the start of the full-scale invasion, and Ukraine continues to engage in combat on russian territory.

7/17 russia is so deeply invested in its unsuccessful offensives in Ukraine that it is unable to defend its own borders, forcing it to engage in combat in Kursk Oblast, where it has been unable to drive Ukrainians away despite months of effort.

8/17 In Syria, Assad's forces, heavily reliant on russia, iran, and iran's proxies, are struggling against an HTS offensive that they have not yet been able to halt. russia lacks the capacity to intervene significantly, as its focus remains on Ukraine.

9/17 Armenia was forced to cede territory to Azerbaijan following clashes, as russia failed to provide defense, despite its military presence and Armenia's membership in the CSTO, which has become a mockery.

10/17 In Sudan, russia backed the wrong horse and is now attempting to turn the tide by switching sides, demonstrating that it has no morals or loyalty in its foreign operations.

11/17 In Myanmar, russia has once again backed the wrong side, and the junta it supports is struggling. The resistance is making significant progress, and the junta may find it difficult to maintain its hold on power.

12/17 With Armenia exiting the CSTO and russia failing to defend it, the CSTO is effectively rendered useless. Additionally, with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, russia has encountered failures on multiple fronts and is now in a dire situation.

13/17 Under Putin's leadership, russia has become weaker while NATO has expanded more than ever. russia is now entirely reliant on china, losing its sovereignty in the process. It has effectively become a pathetic pawn for china, which uses it to attempt to undermine the West.

14/17 russia has a tiny economy but possesses a significant nuclear arsenal and excels at hybrid operations, willing to sacrifice its population for imperialist ambitions. However, there are limits to its actions, and Putin has overextended himself.

15/17 All of this is highly detrimental for russia just before negotiations regarding its invasion of Ukraine. russia is overextended, weakened, and engulfed in chaos, facing troubling demographics and an overheating economy.

16/17 This doesn’t imply that russia cannot create further chaos as it retreats. russia continues to excel at hybrid operations and disinformation campaigns abroad. Historically, it has been far more effective in these areas than in conventional warfare or economic conflict.

17/17 Sources:
NYT - Syrian Rebels Reach Outskirts of Aleppo, in Biggest Advance in Years, Monitor Says
Intellinews - russia is betting on the wrong horse in Myanmar