Thread by @Charles_Lister

A broad spectrum of armed opposition groups are involved in the ongoing assault on #Aleppo -- but make no mistake, it wouldn't be happening if not for #HTS, a group I've studied closely for 12yrs.

🧵- with some useful articles:

Oct 2022:

- "Pragmatic jihadist or opportunistic warlord? #HTS’s Jolani expands his rule in northern #Syria

mei.edu/blog/pragmatic…

Sept 2021:

- "The Fight for Supremacy in Northwest #Syria," on #HTS's break from #Al-Qaeda & its wholesale defeat of AQ & #ISIS in Northwest #Syria:

ctc.westpoint.edu/twenty-years-a…

Feb 2018:

- "How al-Qa`ida Lost Control of its Syrian Affiliate: The Inside Story", a lengthy @CTCWP paper revealing exclusive details on #HTS's breakup with #AlQaeda:

ctc.westpoint.edu/al-qaida-lost-…

In recent years, #HTS has built a semi-technocratic government (the Syrian Salvation Government), with a trained police force, service provision, an aid sector, health programming & more.

The SSG works directly with the UN in aid programming for 2+ million IDPs.

Beyond governance, #HTS has invested heavily in military development since the 2020 ceasefire in NW #Syria -- with intensive fighter development & training. Multiple SOF-type units were developed, for covert ops, lightening raids, night-time ops & more.

#HTS's "Asaib al-Hamra" force has led day-time advances in recent days; while "Saraya al-Harari" assumed frontlines at night, with every fighter equipped with thermal scopes on assault rifles, sniper rifles & RPGs. Plus night-vision equipped ISR drones.

#HTS (& several aligned factions) surged money into indigenous weapons development since 2020 -- into drone tech (ISR & armed), rocketry, and cruise missile-type systems, all of which has been revealed in use over the past 3 days. It's been game-changing.

While it's yet to be revealed, I'm told multiple deep tunnels were used to infiltrate regime-held areas of rural western #Aleppo in the 1st stage of the offensive & covert sleeper cells were activated to attack from inside #Assad-held areas simultaneously.

While opposition offensives of years past might have demonstrated some success, they were affected by leaks & terrible opsec.

The past 72hrs have demonstrated a remarkable improvement in controlled, coordinated comms practice. That makes a big difference.

When #COVID first entered #Syria in 2020, #HTS led the fastest & most efficient health response (mask mandate, mobile & field clinics etc.) through their "Emergency Response Committee."

The ERC is already clearing up newly captured areas of #Aleppo & combing for explosives.

For 2yrs, #HTS's leadership has been trying to rebuild trust with NW #Syria's minorities -- especially Christians & Druze.

Churches have re-opened in Qunayah & Yacoubiyah in #Idlib, after rebuilding & repairs by #HTS companies.

https://x.com/Charles_Lister/status/1549498386012839944