According to local reporting, ~25,000 Syrians have fled #Lebanon & sought refugee in opposition-held NW #Syria, via the Aoun al-Dadat crossing in #Jarablus.

Getting to Aoun al-Dadat from #Lebanon's border with #Syria costs ~$500 per person in "fees." 🧵 That $500 of "fees" goes to a network of #Assad regime militias & the 4th Division -- to (1) enter #Syria & (2) pass through a web of checkpoints into #SDF-held territory northeast of #Aleppo.

For 25,000 people? That's $12.5 million of extortion revenue.

An #Israel ground incursion -- while predictable & understandable -- is the first time that #Hezbollah will perceive a potential opportunity to level the playing field.

While the group can't defend against precision strikes, it can fight on the ground. #Hezbollah will hope to respond asymmetrically -- relying on tunnels & other covert infrastructure to target #IDF troops with ATGMs, snipers & potentially attempts to 'snatch & grab' hostages.

#Israel's intel will need to be solid.

Interesting -- #Russia says U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones have been flying over [#Assad-held] al-Sukhna in #Homs in recent days & on July 27, they nearly collided with Russian jets.

Treat the latter with skepticism, but ISR over Sukhna is significant -- a 🧵. #Syria's airspace is delineated by deconfliction lines (i.e. defined areas of responsibility), agreed upon by #Russia & U.S.

CENTCOM has been increasingly concerned about #ISIS's recovery in the #Assad-held central desert & al-Sukhna has been key to that.

Gathering from media reports, statements & leaks, #Israel's response to #Hezbollah's deadly attack on #MajdalShams is coming & it'll be bigger than anything we've seen in #Lebanon since October 2023.

It's a matter of time; a brief 🧵: #Israel has already gone after key #Hezbollah operational 'HVTs' -- but not *the* leadership. #Beirut remains untouched (as does airport) & #Hezbollah's network of military bases, facilities & missile depots further north. Such strategic targets seem likely.

#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.

3 #IRGC-QF Generals:

- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)



Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.

It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.

There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.

From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever. Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.

Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.

Since 2012, #Iran has been building & consolidating a formidable network of proxies across #Syria & #Iraq -- dozens of groups & 150,000+ members, all financed, trained & armed by the #IRGC.

In #Syria, they engaged in ethnic cleansing & war crimes -- completely unchallenged. During the formative years of 2012-16, #Obama's admin consciously ignored the #IRGC's militia surge in #Syria -- dismissing it as unimportant to U.S. interests.

In 2015, orders were even granted for U.S. forces to deconflict & coordinate with #Iran's proxies in #Iraq, vs. #ISIS.

It’s staggering how much traction this thread got, when it fails to acknowledge one basic fact:

- It takes time to get bodies out of rubble amid intense bombing & to ID bodies (by age, gender) when they’re shredded or in pieces.

Data gets retrospectively updated. That’s normal.

https://twitter.com/aizenberg55/status/1731753062622982386

The same has been true in #Syria, #Yemen & many other acute conflict zones.

The @StateDept has told Congress the #Gaza HM data is an undercount. Why? Because in every previous conflict its data has been +/- 1-3% off post-conflict analysis by #Israel, the U.S., the EU & the UN.

#Putin [rightly] gets slammed for firing cruise missiles into residential buildings in #Ukraine, but when #Israel vaporizes an entire residential block, it's ok & "like the tunnels of Chu Chi."

I'm sorry, but if our principles can't be universal, they count for nothing. #Hamas' evil massacre in #Israel revealed its true colors -- and the group deserves & requires rooting out.

But a scorched earth campaign in which civilians are paying the overwhelming price is a recipe for disaster. We're watching Hamas 2.0's seeds being sown, bomb by bomb.

Heavy fighting continues today, as the death toll reaches 75+.

Overnight, senior Akeidat tribal voices began calling for an anti-#SDF insurgency, which could be *very* significant.

Some of the heaviest fighting is within 10mins of the US “Green Village” base at the Omar Fields.

https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/1696956512361419038

As fighting escalates further in Deir ez Zour, reports suggest the #SDF has lost 18+ villages & towns to tribal forces.

Since the Akeidat calls earlier today, there are also reports of amassed Arab #SDF defections to the tribes, handing over checkpoints.

Serious, serious news.

#Syria's Pound is on the brink of hyperinflation.

In 1 month, the SYP has lost 47% of its value (from 10,500 to 15,500 per $1).

Normalizing #Assad's regime has been an absolute disaster -- most of all for #Syria's people.

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1691808827610485007

#Syria's al-Suwayda governorate & parts of #Daraa governorate have gone on general strike today, protesting against ever-spiraling costs of living amid #Assad regime corruption & incompetence.

Main roads shut-down, town centers filled with demonstrators calling for "liberation."

I’ve just returned from NE #Syria, where I visited the U.S. military’s RLZ base in Rumeilan, the al-Roj & al-Hol camps, as well as Ghuweiran Prison – all alongside @CENTCOM Commander Kurilla.

An incredibly insightful trip, with a lot of takeaways.

After arriving on a C-17 at RLZ -- the beating heart of the #Syria-based mission – I saw how U.S. troops operated multiple drone flights, collected & assessed ISR, monitored air traffic for hostile threats, and coordinated D-#ISIS operations across the northeast.

Amid years of criticism, @UN officials constantly reiterate their commitment to "the humanitarian imperative" in #Syria.

But let's be honest: that's BS.

The @UN is more concerned about managing their relations in #Damascus than prioritizing the lives of those in the northwest.

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1623664124176527360

@UN Leadership at @UN HQ has consistently kowtowed to #Assad regime demands; allowed the systematic weaponization of aid & failed to crackdown on regime-fueled corruption within the aid system.

Investigations into all these issues -- & CWs too -- are often squashed or kept private.

#Assad's regime, its supporters & a plethora of uninformed commentators are driving a call for punitive sanctions on the regime to be removed to facilitate aid delivery to #Syria.

This is absolute nonsense.

It has no basis in facts.

It's nothing but a regime talking point. Let’s start with some facts:

- 90% of the multi-billion dollar aid effort that goes through #Damascus comes from the U.S, U.K, E.U. & #Canada -- who also happen to be the x4 sanctioning entities.

In all cases, humanitarian waivers are in place to ensure the free flow of aid.

The admin of Bab al-Hawa crossing -- the sole route open for UN aid to NW #Syria -- confirms that 3 days in, zero aid has arrived from the international community.

#Assad's regime is getting aid from the @UN + #Russia, #Egypt, #Algeria, #UAE, #Saudi, #Tunisia, #Iraq & #Iran. @UN In NW #Syria, financial donations are coming in from abroad, but nothing in terms of real-world assistance.

They need manpower, fuel, equipment, food, shelter etc.

#Egypt managed to get a team of rescue specialists in to aid @SyriaCivilDefe, but it's unclear how they got there.

* Let me make this concretely clear:

Punitive sanctions on #Assad's regime have zero effect on the influx of aid into regime-held areas of #Syria.

Moreover, the x3 sanctioning entities (U.S., E.U. & #Canada) provide 90% of the ~$5bn aid program directed through #Damascus. That UN aid program in #Damascus is an enormous effort -- & without Western funding, it'd vanish almost instantly.

Our governments continue to fund it to help those in need, in regime areas, *despite* the #Assad regime's systematic manipulation & diversion of the aid for 12yrs.

Northwestern #Syria — #Idlib & #Aleppo in particular — have suffered 12yrs of brutal conflict. More than 65% of the basic infrastructure of the area is destroyed or heavily damaged.

Tonight’s earthquake couldn’t have hit a more vulnerable region.

An absolute disaster.

https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/1622420324020002819

Utterly horrific reports coming from all across NW #Syria - every town I’ve heard from has dozens of buildings flattened. People stuck under the rubble.

Any many, many casualties — including children.

@SyriaCivilDefe will be heroes tonight, working amid heavy rain & sleet.

According to recent leaks, #ISIS's evolved administrative structure is ruffling some internal feathers in the #MiddleEast.

The crux of internal tensions lies in the increasingly blurry lines of authority over operations, leadership succession & resource use in #Iraq & #Syria. Leaks claim #ISIS's "Ardh al-Mubarakah" office manages operations in #Syria, #Lebanon & #Turkey, while the Bilad al-Rafidayn office runs #Iraq.

The latter was also running ops in #Iran -- until recently at least, when #Iran was folded into the #Afghanistan "Al-Siddique" office.

أمر ما يجب أن نقدّمه لسوريا -- 13 عاما من الأزمة المستمرة تتجه نحو انهيار حتمي

- مقالتي الجديدة في @ForeignPolicy:

* whia.us/?p=9046 (عربي)

* foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/01/som… (الإنجليزي) الأزمة #السورية ستدخل عامها الـ 13 في مارس/آذار القادم، ورغم أن مستوى العنف في جميع أنحاء البلاد منخفض الآن نسبيا مقارنة بالسنوات الماضية، فإن الأزمة ما زالت بعيدة جدا عن نهايتها، وفقا للأكاديمي تشارلز ليستر:

aja.me/9037gj

Yesterday saw an intriguing incident outside al-Bab in northern #Aleppo:

- A prominent member of a pro-#HTS [semi-breakaway] wing of Ahrar al-Sham, Saddam al-Mousa (Abu Uday) was killed outside his home in what was described as a "drone strike." Abu Uday had become notorious for facilitating #HTS's advance into northern #Aleppo in Oct 2022 -- & in its wake, he secured control of the valuable al-Hamran crossing (to #SDF areas) & agreed to share its revenue streams with #HTS.

He was also a known player in the arms trade.

NEW - #ISIS announce the death of leader Abu al-Hassan al-Qurashi -- "killed in action," but no details as to when or where.

His replacement is named as Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini. Lots of rumor swirling re. #ISIS's leader's death.

- Some (linked to #SDF) say he was killed in a joint US-SDF raid in NE #Syria.

- Some (linked to opposition) say he was killed in #Idlib, either (a) Nov 19 during a reported #HTS SSG raid, or (b) Nov 26 in an unreported op.