When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it's clearly coming.

The US military's decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵: Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria's new gov't.

For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/20/syr…

For years, #Syria's crisis was a complex geopolitical battleground, involving #Russia, #Iran, #USA, #Turkey, #Israel & more.

With #Assad out, a dangerous geopolitical face-off is intensifying -- between #Turkey & #Israel. A 🧵: Since #Assad fell 4 months ago, #Israel has launched ~750 airstrikes & 100+ ground incursions into #Syria, seeking to cripple #Syria militarily -- while demanding a complete demilitarization of the south.

See my latest on this: foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/27/isr…

The information space around #Syria has collapsed into a toxic pot of vitriol, wild misinformation and... some facts.

Large numbers of people are tragically dead, but the circumstances & context are far more complex than is being widely conveyed. A 🧵: In the lead-up to Thursday night, pro-#Assad gunmen had launched 46 attacks on interim gov't forces in 6/14 of #Syria's governorates -- but what happened Thursday night was a whole other level.

3 days later, more than 400 gov't forces are confirmed as dead.

Suffice to say, the chance of #Syria being granted any sanctions relief by the #Trump admin is now effectively zero.

#Assad loyalists knew exactly what they wanted -- an extension of the long-standing "#Assad or we burn the country" motto. #Assad fell in an #HTS-led military campaign that demonstrated extraordinary & unprecedented self-restraint -- and in the aftermath, calls for 'reconciliation' & recovery kept a lid on a long-standing boiling pot of anger & grudges.

A 🧵-- in the last 10 days, #Israel has:

- Launched ground incursions into x18 localities in SW #Syria, as deep as 12km;
- Conducted x3 airstrikes;
- Threatened a military intervention toward #Damascus;
- Demanded all of south #Syria be demilitarized. #Israel says it distrusts #Syria's interim gov't & has sought to instrumentalize minorities to justify its interventions -- particularly the #Druze.

Yet the most powerful #Druze actors have publicly rejected #Israel's "interference" & "stoking division."

NEW -- #Israel is threatening military intervention in #Syria tonight amid rising tensions between interim gov't forces & #Druze militiamen in #Damascus' suburb of #Jaramana.

What's going on? A brief 🧵: Last night, #Druze militiamen in #Jaramana outside #Damascus attacked a handful of interim gov't forces -- killing one, injuring another & temporarily taking him hostage.

An hour later, the militiamen attacked & ransacked a state police station nearby.

NEW - #Syria’s interim gov’t GSS has captured senior #ISIS commander Abu al-Harith al-Iraqi in a targeted raid.

His capture is linked to US intel sharing with #Damascus. Abu al-Harith has been behind a string of high-profile #ISIS plots in #Syria. A 🧵: When in #Damascus, I was told of 8 #ISIS plots that had been foiled by #Syria’s Interior Ministry GSS force since Jan 1, 2025 — all tied directly or indirectly to U.S. intel tip-offs.

There’s an ongoing [US-#HTS] exchange on #ISIS.

I just left #Syria after an extraordinary trip — one that until recently I never thought I’d make again. From #Aleppo, to #Idlib, #Latakia, #Tartus, #Salamiya, #Suwayda & #Damascus.

So many takeaways, but most of all: it's free & everyone is overjoyed. A 🧵: In #SNA-held areas of northern #Aleppo, towns had emptied, as IDPs have steadily returned home since #Assad's fall on Dec 8.

Checkpoints remained, but #Damascus forces (formerly #HTS) had begun to arrive. Authorities were transitioning to central control.

NEW -- #Trump's global aid freeze has cut the salaries paid to many of the prison & camp guards responsible for securing 9,500 #ISIS militants & ~40,000 associated women/kids in northeast #Syria.

Many are no longer turning up for work. For years, @CENTCOM has warned that #ISIS's "army in waiting" & its potential "next generation" lie in prisons & camps in NE #Syria.

The threat posed by a mass breakout cannot be understated, as #ISIS was already resurgent in 2024: syriaweekly.com/p/in-2024-isis…

NEW -- the EU has suspended all sanctions on #Syria related to air, land & sea shipping, as well as banking & energy for 12 months.

A good step, following on from US actions. A short 🧵: #Assad fell on Dec 8 & the US General License 24 was introduced on Jan 6. Now we [finally] have a similar EU move.

#Syria is *desperate* for help. The economy is broken & the humanitarian crisis is actually worsening -- UN aid has withered since #Assad left.

The amount of disinformation doing the rounds on #Syria these days is stunning -- some is organized & by design, but much more is the result of simple ignorance.

To make matters worse, *very* few appear capable of distinguishing fact from fiction. A 🧵: Multiple videos have went near-viral in recent days purporting to show #HTS abuses directed against #Syria's minorities -- but they've been a combination of old footage &/or incidents by #Assad's regime, often in entirely different locations than labeled too.

2 weeks before #Assad fell, I wrote that the US mustn't leave #Syria, as the D-#ISIS mission is far from over & the practical cost of staying is wholly affordable.

It's still *vital* we stay, but conditions have changed -- a 🧵:

mei.edu/blog/dont-leav… In 2024, #ISIS has *tripled* its operational tempo in #Syria compared to 2023, while expanding its geographic reach, increasing recruitment & attack scale & sophistication.

Every alarm bell has been ringing for months.

syriaweekly.com/p/nov-2024-isi…

Seeing #Assad's former cabinet meeting with #HTS's Salvation Government in #Damascus is truly a staggering thing.

For many years, Syrians aligned with the state risked being disappeared merely for exchanging messages with opposition-aligned people. A 🧵: In years past, I was involved in a large-scale effort to bring Syrians together from across the crisis spectrum -- for days-long meetings abroad, in neutral venues. Getting people from #Assad-held areas was an enormous logistical & security challenge (for them).

Over the past week, almost all attention on #Syria has been directed at the #HTS/opposition vs. #Assad dynamic -- and the change of power in #Damascus.

Meanwhile, the #SDF in northeast #Syria has been dealt a tough hand of cards -- a 🧵: As the anti-#Assad advance gained steam in western #Syria, the Arab tribal component of the #SDF sought to take the fight to #Assad in the east. That happened in Deir ez Zour, but it was hard at times, and complex. It frayed some Arab-YPG ties.

#HTS's tip-of-the-spear advance across #Syria has presented international actors with a huge legal/policy dilemma -- a 🧵

After 2 days of #Syria diplomatic talks, it's clear most are considering the likelihood that designations may need re-considering. For several years, the U.S. & Europeans have been aware of #HTS's ideological & behavioral change in #Idlib, and the Salvation Govt too -- but the lack of investment in serious #Syria policy meant there was little need to do more than acknowledge & monitor.

NEW -- since the fall of #Hama yesterday, #Syria is witnessing extraordinary developments.

#Assad's future now looks VERY much in question. A 🧵: Opposition forces are now at the gates of #Homs, preparing to launch a major push into the city. Elite frontline fighters (incl. from #HTS's Asaib al-Hamra) are prepped on four axes, while #Assad's regime has evacuated its #Homs leadership to #Damascus.

Having worked on #Syria full-time since the crisis began nearly 14yrs ago, there really is no understating how remarkable the losses imposed on #Assad's regime have been over the past week.

A large reason for this lies with #HTS — a 🧵: Militarily, #HTS has invested enormously since 2020 in enhancing combat capabilities, improving professionalism, tightening its structure & command/control etc.

From an 'officer' class, to special forces, night-time units & an entire drone force - it's changed the game.

OK -- today is Day 5 of renewed major conflict in #Syria & the frontlines continue to move.

Here's a new 🧵 bringing us up to speed: #HTS/opposition factions have confirmed full control of all of #Idlib province -- consolidating their capture of Khan Sheikhoun, Saraqeb & Maarat al-Numan and opening the way for large-scale return of IDPs forced out by #Assad's regime in 2020.

OK folks, here's what we know so far from #Syria - a 🧵:

#Aleppo city has fallen, along with the entire western countryside & much of the south too -- including the international airport & Kuweiris Airbase.

A few #Russia airstrikes, but little else. Next-door in #Idlib, opposition fighters took control of #Saraqeb (cutting the M5 highway) & long-time revolutionary towns of Kafranbel, Maarat al-Numan & Khan Sheikhoun.

After that, they marched into #Hama, taking Morek & advancing all the way to #Hama city.

A broad spectrum of armed opposition groups are involved in the ongoing assault on #Aleppo -- but make no mistake, it wouldn't be happening if not for #HTS, a group I've studied closely for 12yrs.

🧵- with some useful articles: Oct 2022:

- "Pragmatic jihadist or opportunistic warlord? #HTS’s Jolani expands his rule in northern #Syria

mei.edu/blog/pragmatic…

NEW -- #Syria armed opposition (Fathul Mubeen + #HTS) has launched a major offensive in western #Aleppo, the 1st such operation since 2020.

Columns of armored vehicles, one SVBIED & several thousand fighters have captured x6 villages from #Assad's regime. #Russia fighter jets have been overlying the lines of hostility in western #Aleppo for hours, but no strikes so far. Until now, #Assad's regime & #Iran proxies have sustained hours of heavy artillery shelling on surrounding civilian areas.

Huge escalation.