Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 30, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/7 Something to watch in the coming days is how HTS and the SDF interact with one another. Will this lead to intense clashes, or will they be able to reach some sort of agreement? Image
2/7 The breakdown of the Assad regime's defenses in Aleppo has benefited not only HTS, which is advancing further south, but also the SDF, which is leveraging this momentum to secure territories in and around Aleppo. Image
3/7 Numerous rumors about clashes are circulating, but the situation appears to be stable for the time being. Turkey may be displeased with the SDF making gains. Image
4/7 The majority of people in Syria and the West are not in favor of Jolani and HTS governing Syria, yet they are so eager to see Assad removed that they are willing to support anyone who can achieve that goal. They perceive Assad as the greater evil. Image
5/7 Both HTS and the SDF have a common objective of preventing Assad from regaining control over all of Syria, and they are both pleased to expand their control over additional Syrian territories. Image
6/7 The actions of Assad's regime and its supporters, including russia and iran, as well as the ongoing and upcoming bombings of civilians in Aleppo, may currently allow HTS and the SDF to avoid confrontation. The next few days will be interesting. Image
7/7 Source:
Spectator - Syria’s conflict is heating up once more Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jul 11
1/7 THREAD: russia’s economy isn’t fine.

It’s fragile, unsustainable, and cracking under the weight of war.

Just because it’s not constantly in the headlines doesn’t mean it’s healthy. Here’s what’s really going on 👇Image
2/7 russia is battling high inflation, a labor shortage, and crippling interest rates.

Its key interest rate jumped from 7.5% in June 2023 to 21%, and still sits at 20%.

That’s not stability. That’s survival modeImage
3/7 A 20% key interest rate with low or no growth and high inflation is a disaster.

The only reason russia isn’t in a deep recession is because of massive war spending.

Without it, the economy would be shrinking fastImage
Read 7 tweets
Jul 11
1/5 THREAD: Is Europe finally waking up?

There are promising signs — but let’s not hold our breath just yet.

Here’s what’s happening, and what still needs to happen 👇Image
2/5 France and the UK are finally restarting the production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Merz says ”the time for diplomacy with russia is over.”

And Berlin is close to convincing Trump to allow US arms sales to Ukraine — financed by NATO countries. That would be big! Image
3/5 Germany is also stepping up to finance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities. It’s a shift.

But we’ve seen hopeful moments before — only to watch them fizzle.

Europe must understand: this war won’t end by hoping it will Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 10
1/8 THREAD:

Despite the successful propaganda, russia is quietly facing a strategic defeat in Ukraine — and too few realize itImage
2/8 russia’s propaganda blurs facts and makes a brutal war feel like a stalemate.

But the truth is: Ukraine is winning, and russia is quietly, catastrophically losing.

It all comes to strategic objectivesImage
3/8 Imagine telling someone in March 2022 that 3.5 years later:

- russia controls way less territory
- Ukraine still holds all 23 regional capital cities
- russia has over 1M casualties
- north korean troops are on the frontlines

That would sound like a massive russian defeat Image
Read 8 tweets
Jul 10
1/6 Human safaris in Kherson — Daily war crimes the world ignores.

russia is punishing civilians for refusing to surrender and be russified. This is a crime against humanity.

What are we waiting for to act? Image
2/6 In Kherson, russia has turned drone warfare into a grotesque spectacle.

FPV drones are used to hunt civilians — yes, civilians.

This isn’t speculation. It’s documented. Locals call it the human safari.

The worst part? russia shares videos of these attacks like trophies Image
3/6 These drones target cars, ambulances, volunteers — even pedestrians.

russian telegram channels openly declare any moving object a target.

The goal? To terrorize, punish, and break the will of Ukrainians who refuse to surrender and be russified Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 10
1/4 Another night of terror in Kyiv.

Another wave of russian drones and missiles targeting civilians.

How long will we let this go on before doing something real about it?

We need to finally make Putin understand that actions have consequences.

If we don’t, we are complicit Image
2/4 russia just launched its second mass strike in a row — not for military gain, but to terrorize.

These attacks kill, maim, and traumatize civilians.

And the world watches.

What are we waiting for? Image
3/4 Every time russia does this, we must respond:

- More sanctions
- More weapons to Ukraine
- More consequences

Send Ukraine cruise missiles. Fund its defense industry. Help it build more drones, more cruise missiles, and more ballistic missiles to strike back — hard Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 8
1/7 🇨🇳 china hawks fell for it again.

Trump talks tough on china — but his actions tell a different story.

The ”pivot to Asia” he promised? It’s a scam.

Here’s how Trump is actually helping china while pretending to confront it: Image
2/7 Trump has used the ”pivot to Asia” as a cover to disengage from Europe, not to counter china.

He’s bombed Iran, shifted US focus to the Middle East, and projected weakness on Ukraine—signaling to Beijing that the US won’t stand up for its allies and interests Image
3/7 His foreign and defense policy teams — including Hegseth, Colby, and others — talk endlessly about china, but their real goal has been to undermine NATO and weaken the West.

They have alienated key allies like South Korea and Japan, who are essential to defending Taiwan Image
Read 7 tweets

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