Joni Askola Profile picture
Nov 30, 2024 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/7 Something to watch in the coming days is how HTS and the SDF interact with one another. Will this lead to intense clashes, or will they be able to reach some sort of agreement? Image
2/7 The breakdown of the Assad regime's defenses in Aleppo has benefited not only HTS, which is advancing further south, but also the SDF, which is leveraging this momentum to secure territories in and around Aleppo. Image
3/7 Numerous rumors about clashes are circulating, but the situation appears to be stable for the time being. Turkey may be displeased with the SDF making gains. Image
4/7 The majority of people in Syria and the West are not in favor of Jolani and HTS governing Syria, yet they are so eager to see Assad removed that they are willing to support anyone who can achieve that goal. They perceive Assad as the greater evil. Image
5/7 Both HTS and the SDF have a common objective of preventing Assad from regaining control over all of Syria, and they are both pleased to expand their control over additional Syrian territories. Image
6/7 The actions of Assad's regime and its supporters, including russia and iran, as well as the ongoing and upcoming bombings of civilians in Aleppo, may currently allow HTS and the SDF to avoid confrontation. The next few days will be interesting. Image
7/7 Source:
Spectator - Syria’s conflict is heating up once more Image

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More from @joni_askola

Dec 18
1/10 Ukraine must make sure Russians never feel in control.

It is going more and more asymmetric because playing fair will not win this war where Russia never does.

Ukraine must push this strategy even harder Image
2/10 Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough.

Ukraine is striking deep inside Russia and must scale up production even further and shift toward more asymmetric tactics to make the war far more costly for Russia Image
3/10 Ukraine’s two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes on oil and infrastructure.

It works, but it needs acceleration.

Every month of delay gives Moscow breathing room Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 16
1/12 China’s favorite US president:

Trump is extremely soft on China. The idea that he’s a China hawk is one of the biggest misconceptions.

He’s almost as soft on Beijing as he is on Moscow. Both back him for that reason.

Here are a few key examples👇 Image
2/12 Trump keeps threatening to pull US troops from allies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan.

He constantly pressures and criticizes those allies.

Undermining security guarantees sends one message: America is weak and unreliable Image
3/12 Trump allows NVIDIA to sell advanced H200 chips to China, tech that strengthens Beijing’s AI ambitions.

That’s one of the few areas where the US is ahead.

So much for “decoupling” Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 8
1/9 Europe must face reality:

The US under Trump is waging a hybrid war against us, siding with our enemies, and turning from ally to adversary Image
2/9 Trump’s new national security strategy and his administration’s actions prove it.

They are not protecting Europe.

They are undermining us Image
3/9 They back anti-EU, pro-Russia, pro-China far-right parties.

They interfere politically to sabotage us and try to throw Ukraine under the bus while siding with Putin Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 2
1/9 Ukraine cannot win this war by only playing fair when Russia never does.

Russia has more men, more money, and zero limits.

To end the war faster, Ukraine must go more asymmetric and bring the fight deeper into Russia Image
2/9 Why is this needed?

Just defending gives Russia no reason to stop.

Trading land for time is smart, but not enough. Ukraine needs to hit Russia where it hurts.

It already does with strikes, but it must do even more to show the world it still has cards to play Image
3/9 Ukraine’s current two-part strategy is to trade land for time and crush Russia’s economy with deep strikes.

It is good, but it needs acceleration.

The war must become even more costly, even faster, for Russia Image
Read 9 tweets
Dec 1
1/6 Belgium is helping Russia in its war against Ukraine.

How? It is the final obstacle preventing Ukraine from accessing Russia’s frozen assets.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as Russia’s helper? Image
2/6 Belgium is still blocking Russia’s frozen assets from being transferred to Ukraine, constantly finding new excuses to help Russia.

Does Belgium want to be remembered as the country that made Ukraine and Europe lose to Russia? Image
3/6 Belgium has been blocking this for months. It is the only country left doing so.

First, it used legal fears as an excuse. Europe worked to address those concerns, even with help from Norway. After that, Belgium's PM De Wever found new excuses, and Trump provided them to him Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 27
1/6 How should the world look according to Curtis Yarvin, the ideological father of JD Vance, Peter Thiel, and other powerful figures in the US?

And why should we be worried? 🧵 Image
2/6 Thiel, Musk, and their circle have gained enormous influence in the US. They helped pick Trump’s VP and installed JD Vance in that role.

These far-right oligarchs are isolationist, pro-Russia, pro-China, and hostile to democracy.

Their guiding thinker is Curtis Yarvin Image
3/6 Yarvin’s core belief: democracy is a mistake.

He argues freedom creates chaos and inefficiency.

His solution? Replace democratic governments with authoritarian “CEO style” rule, where one leader runs a country like a corporation Image
Read 6 tweets

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