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Robert Walker BSc, fact checker for scared people Profile picture
@DoomsdayDebunks
Nov 30 • 35 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
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BLOG: Sky News' military analyst, Sean Bell to young kids:

“we are NOT on the verge of World War 3” and

“we are NOT about to have a nuclear confrontation”

READ HERE: robertinventor.substack.com/p/sky-news-mil…
Video here

Transcript of Sean Bell's answers to two of the kids' questions, see graphic: youtube.com/embed/eDkfX17K… TRANSCRIPT: Rosie: How likely is it that there will be a World War 3? [USING SKY NEWS’ WRITTEN SUMMARIES of the questions] "The short answer is we are not on the verge of World War 3. I served on the military for 35 years. We were worried about the former Soviet Union and Russia. But actually Russia has struggled against Ukraine. It's lost a load of tanks and fighter jets and frankly it's had a real mauling at the hands of Ukraine. And therefore it is very very unlikely that Russia will be in any fit state to attack anybody else any time soon. Leo: Pre...
All five permanent security council members signed a statement saying that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought. Not as an agreement. As something they all recognize as true.

That's Russia, China, UK, US and France. “We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” Uses the graphic from the US embacy in the UK: Joint Statement of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races https://uk.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-of-the-leaders-of-the-five-nuclear-weapon-states-on-preventing-nuclear-war-and-avoiding-arms-races/
That isn't a concession. It's not a promise or a treaty. It is just self-evident. This goes back to US president Ronald Reagen, first to state it really clearly. Text on graphic: “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” Not a treaty or agreement or promise. A statement of a self evident truth. China, Russia, UK, France, USA, they all agree this is a self evident truth. Graphic shows screenshot from video at 39:25 https://www.youtube.com/embed/?start=2365
We didn’t panic in the Cold War. We knew there was a risk and knew what to do.

Simple instructions like these would save millions of lives in a world war.

Our governments can't believe we are at any significant/realistic risk of a world war or we'd all know these precautions. How you can KNOW that our governments and our TV presenters do NOT think there is ANY realistic possibility of a nuclear war. TEXT ON GRAPHIC You do NOT see these instructions on the news because there IS NO REAL WORLD WAR RISK We were ALL sent this in the cold war. NOBODY is sent it today. Our governments do NOT assess ANY risk of a world war. These instructions would save millions of lives in a nuclear war. If you are outside the epicenter and stay away from the heavy dust that falls from the sky you don't get radiation sickness. Radioactivity is mostly gone in 2 days, most of wha...
The sad thing is the clickbait is doing Putin's work. It led to strong pressure on Biden and Starmer to reverse their decision.

Only Putin benefits.

Sean Bell:

"if you don't do that [lift restrictions], Ukraine is trying to fight Russia with one arm tied behind its back" Putin's request to Biden to prohibit Ukraine from using its weapons to hit any targets outside Ukraine was always VERY BIZARRE Singapore would NEVER buy ATACMS if it could only use them to hit targets in Singapore.
We can stop ALL FEARS of world war WITHOUT stopping the Ukraine war.

Deliberately silly and impossible example of Iceland invading Wales / Cornwall / Southern England.

This helps show why Ukraine's allies say Ukraine is the only country that can decide when to stop fighting. TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Deliberately silly and impossible example: Suppose tiny Iceland has taken over Wales, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset and much of southern England through to East Anglia. These modern day Vikings are torturing the people there and have forcefully adopted their kids to Iceland and forced them to speak Icelandic and forget their English heritage. We might be forced to negotiate but we would WANT to liberate all of England and Wales. US, UK and its allies all agree it’s for Ukraine to decide when to stop fighting and not us. We can stop ALL FEARS of World War without stopping the...
Zelensky and Ukrainians know that if they had the military technology
🔹 any country in NATO would get access to on day 1
🔹even tiny Estonia
the war would be over in days, and Putin would have to retreat TEXT ON GRAPHIC - A “no navy” country Ukraine sunk the flagship of the Russian fleet, the Moskva, in 2022 with two sea skimming Neptune drones. From then on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was pretty much out of the war - they never ventured near the Ukrainian shores and then were forced out of Crimea as well in 2023.
To show how much more powerful NATO is than Russia, the USA has the capability (WON'T DO THIS):

🔹 to sink Russia's entire Black Sea fleet from small conventional missiles fired from a sub in the Mediterranean.

🔹US could use the same Tomahawk cruise missiles as for Houthis. TEXT ON GRAPHIC Range of the US tomahawk cruise missile with a half ton payload like the ATACMS, travels at nearly 1000 km / hour, range 2,400 km. Proven ability to get through Russia's S-400 system With the current state of Russian air defences, the US could sink the entire Russian Black Sea fleet in a few hours but doesn't give this capability to Ukraine.
Imagine how hard it would be to defend against supersonic potatoes? That is what the Russians would see in their radars if they were fighting a NATO country with F-35s. None of Russia's planes are anything like as stealthy. When you look for one of these F-35s on radar … This is what you see: [large potato] Russian radar operator (imagined): “What is that on the radar? A supersonic potato?” Billie Flyn, F-35 test pilot on what it would do in Ukraine. It would go in and kill every surface-to-air missile threat that was out there, and neutralize all the threats on the ground, and achieve air dominance because it would kill all the air-to-air assets also. Remember: we see them, they don’t see us. It’s like playing football, when one team’s invisible, and the other team is not….
Since 2022, Ukraine has asked for the high altitude stealth Gray Eagle drone which can fly behind the front line and then deliver its “Hellfire” missiles from far too high for Russia to detect them.

The US won’t send them.

Any NATO country has access to those on day 1. TEXT ON GRAPHIC Ukraine has asked for the high altitude stealth Grey Eagle drone since 2022. this could drop small precise missiles from an undetectable high alitude of 25,000 feet (7,600 meters) and fly for up to 36 hours, range of 370 km. Any NATO country has these available from day 1.
Every week Ukraine flies many slow propellor driven drones and sometimes even hobbyist ultralights for hours through Russian air space, traveling over 1000 km before setting fire to a fuel depot or oil refinery or blowing up a stockpile of bombs.

Russia can't keep them out. TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Russia's air defences are so degraded that Ukraine is able to fly ultralights through them without getting shot down. Replace pilot by explosives and remote control, and you have a drone that can evade the Russian air defences and bomb a Russian oil refinery 1000s of kilometres from Ukraine. Yet Russia claims FALSELY it can "escalate" and win a war against not just Ukraine but NATO as well. Just bluffs and bulls**t.
I don’t think many in the West realize quite how politically devastating it would be to Putin to lose his Black Sea fleet.

This is why Ukraine sees the Tomahawk cruise missiles as a big lever it could use in negotiations with Putin. TEXT ON GRAPHIC Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is of huge national pride to the Russians. Ukraine has already sunk its flagship and a third of its ships with the ATACMS, stormshadows and its own native Neptune but most have retreated out of reach to the far side of the Black Sea. If Ukaine had the Tomahawk cruise missile it could sink the entire fleet - gone from the Black Sea for the first time since it began in 1783 A major lever for negotiations with Russia from a position of strength. Black Sea Fleet - just before the start of the Crimean war of 1853-6
Second from left at bottom Ukrainian built Palyanitsa a jet powered cruise missile like the Stormshadow with a range of 700 km

To the right of it the OTRK Sapson also known as HRIM-2 which is a ballistic missile like the ATACMs with a range of 700 km. Image
Russia can’t bring any more ships in to the Black Sea because Turkey closed off the Strait of Bosporous to any military traffic in or out during the war.

Given how vulnerable Russia is to long range missiles, the situation on the battlefield is far more dynamic than it seems. TEXT ON GRAPHIC Once Ukraine has its own 1,000 km ballistic missiles Or if US gives Ukraine htre Tomahawks it uses against he Houthi in Yemen It can says to Putin “Leave Ukraine or we’ll sink your Black Sea Fleet”
There may be other surprise in the top secret plans which Ukraine will NOT SHARE WITH ANYONE except those of the highest clearance.

So we can’t know those plans. If we knew, Russia would know.

After seeing Zelensky’s victory plan, Biden tweeted “Ukraine will win this war” TEXT ON GRAPHIC: President Biden: “Ukraine will win this war” After seeing Zelensky’s detailed victory plan. Zelensky, interviewed on Fox news: “We took the plan with details and we gave this plan to Biden. We shared some ideas about it with Kamala and with Donald.” So only Biden has seen the detailed p[lan. Russia is far weaker than you’d think from the very static front line - losing large amounts of munitions, fuel, and with big problems supplying the front line. It has several weaknesses along the front line that Ukraine might exploit in a surprise counteroffensive that it would ...
Biden has always said that Ukraine will win.

Nobody in the West knew that:
- the Russian mine fields in 2023 were far too wide for the US mine field breaching equipment
- Congress would hold up funding up in the fall of 2023, possibly just before a Ukrainian counteroffensive
Zelensky is confident Trump will help:
BLOG: Zelensky: war in Ukraine can end faster with Trump
- can only negotiate from a position of strength
- expects Trump to strengthen Ukraine
- but by 1799 Logan act can’t discuss until he's president
READ HERE: robertinventor.substack.com/p/zelensky-war…TEXT ON GRAPHIC Zelensky says the war will end FASTER with Trump’s team Ukraine has never been quite strong enough to negotiate with Putin. So long as Putin's army is advancing against an enemy he sees as weak and on its own, he will NOT DO ANY GENUINE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS Zelensky says Trump understands Ukraine hs to be strong - but can’t negotiate with Zelensky until he’s president. QUOTE: Under the conditions that Ukraine is not alone with Russia, that Ukraine is strong.
The main thing is there is
* NO RISK OF A WORLD WAR
* NO RISK OF A NUCLEAR WAR
* SAFE FOR ITS ALLIES TO HELP UKRAINE.

It's great to see someone on TV saying what we've been saying to scared people all along.

We are SAFE

We do NOT need to STOP governments supporting Ukraine.
Find out more:

BLOG: Sky News' military analyst, Sean Bell to young kids:

“we are NOT on the verge of World War 3” and

“we are NOT about to have a nuclear confrontation”

READ HERE: robertinventor.substack.com/p/sky-news-mil…
@threadreaderapp unroll Image
Sky News' military analyst, Sean Bell to young kids:
“we are NOT on the verge of World War 3” and
“we are NOT about to have a nuclear confrontation”
- shortened version
robertinventor.substack.com/p/sky-news-mil…This is the first news program I’ve seen that has just out and said a World War won't happen. I hope this helps some of the scared people we help, 🔹 to have someone expert say this clearly and concisely on TV 🙂 what we’ve been saying all along This is what we need more of: TEXT ON GRAPHIC: We’re not on the verge of World War 3 says expert.
That is this thread as a separate article.

Return to start of thread:
I realize I need to say a bit more here as most readers won't know the background to what Sean Bell said about the mauling Russia's attacking forces have had from Ukraine.
Whatever happens we are SAFE in NATO.

Ukraine winning will also lead to a safer world for weaker countries. TEXT ON GRAPHIC: Why Ukraine’s victory plan is a path to peace not war Slow Ukrainian drones 18th Step 2024 Nearly 30 kilotons of bombs destroyed saving thousands of lives First ATACMS in Russia, 19th Nov. 2024. Blowing up bombs meant for Ukraine.Russia is HUGE just wants to add one more region to its vast territory Smaller Ukraine defending from increasing rain of bombs. Ukraine CAN win without taking ANYTHING from Russia. All it wants is for Russia to leave and stop the bombing. Small Ukraine defending from rain of bombs
Many people who worry about this new ATACMS permission don’t realize how much Russia is being mauled by Ukraine as Sean Bell put it in his answer to Rosie Bell: TRANSCRIPT: Rosie: How likely is it that there will be a World War 3? [USING SKY NEWS’ WRITTEN SUMMARIES of the questions] "The short answer is we are not on the verge of World War 3. I served on the military for 35 years. We were worried about the former Soviet Union and Russia. But actually Russia has struggled against Ukraine. It's lost a load of tanks and fighter jets and frankly it's had a real mauling at the hands of Ukraine. And therefore it is very very unlikely that Russia will be in any fit state to attack anybody else any time soon.
It’s lost 3,598 tanks as of writing on Oryx, open source page documenting every loss.
Since early 2024 it’s set fire to oil refineries, oil depots and now munitions dumps
- has to impact on Russia’s ability to attack Ukraine.
Map shows attacked oil refineries up to April 2024 Image
After that it started blowing up fuel depots. You can't put out an oil or gasoline fire with water. On the first day they tried to put it out with water but it just made it worse

Video here
The biggest fuel depot fire burnt for 16 days.
YouTube
Then after that it started blowing up Russia's stockpiles of bombs.

This is the Toropets explosion: youtube.com/embed/ukhqqRdh…
At 44 seconds in you hear the local Russian officials telling us that everything is under control while you hear the explosions in the background TEXT ON GRAPHIC (at 44 seconds in)https://www.youtube.com/embed/ukhqqRdhcMw?start=44 You hear the sound of explosions going off as they speak. “The air defence system of the Ministry of Defence did its job. Most of 30 kilotons of explosives blew up How Russia responds to setbacks in the war - tells everyone that nothing is happening.
Zelensky doesn't need soldiers he needs equipment. Ukraine with a million soldiers is still at only 2.5% of its population compared to nearly 25% for the UK in WW2 TEXT ON GRAPHIC: NASA, huge and powerful but very timid Russia knows it can't use nukes in reality Russia tiny and weak, bluffs as meaningless as soap bubbles Even the Soviet Union had no way to win a war with nukes Imagine if your team was invisible - how easily you could win a game of football. That is how much better NATO's F-35 jets are than anything Russia has. 300+ F-35s (USA), 100+ F-35s (Europe). Russia's 5th generation fighter jet is not ready for war and may never be (expensive technology to develop). NATO's technology is vastly superior (one of many ways) NATO: Populati...
Admiral Radakin is in command of the UK armed forces and regularly visits Ukraine. He also said Russia will NOT attack NATO He can't attack us because we are too strong, out of his league. By preparing in a strong way, we STOP Putin from attacking NATO. Text: The biggest reason that Putin doesn’t want a conflict with NATO is because Russia will lose. And lose quickly.
By lose quickly, Admiral Radakin means if Russia ever attacked it would be pushed right out of NATO territory, and any missile systems firing at NATO destroyed - NATO wouldn't try to defeat Russia as it is purely defensive see: robertinventor.substack.com/p/how-to-see-t…
So I hope this helps put your fears to rest.

Once again there is
🔹 NO RISK OF A WORLD WAR
🔹 NO RISK OF A NUCLEAR WAR
🔹 IT IS SAFE FOR ITS ALLIES TO HELP UKRAINE.
So once again, this thread as a separate article:

BLOG: Sky News' military analyst, Sean Bell to young kids:
“we are NOT on the verge of World War 3” and
“we are NOT about to have a nuclear confrontation”
- shortened version
READ HERE: robertinventor.substack.com/p/sky-news-mil…

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Robert Walker BSc, fact checker for scared people Profile picture
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If worried about project 2025:

BLOG: Far right Republican Project 2025 is mostly an illegal fantasy - most of it can’t be done at all - “Schedule F” would face legal challenges and likely be struck down
CLICK HERE TO READ:

Screenshot of first page. doomsdaydebunked.miraheze.org/wiki/Far_right…
Image
2/ This is impossible. I 'll do a new post when I get time. Most things require new laws and they can't get a far right majority in either house. Schedule F is the main executive decision option. If he tries again it is likely shot down as illegal. Meanwhile short thread.
3/ for LGBT things remember that the vast majority in both houses supported the respect for marriage act. So it is not possible for Congress to pass laws that remove the right for marriage for gay people never mind harsher restrictions.

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Robert Walker BSc, fact checker for scared people Profile picture
Jun 15
1/n Yes we ARE headed for 1.7°C if countries keep to announced pledges
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See BLOG: robertinventor.substack.com/p/yes-we-are-h…
TEXT ON GRAPHIC As technology improves we expect it to be EASIER to achieve these pledges and improve on them. APS [Announced Pledges Scenario] Most of these pledges are - economically feasible - from countries that historically equal or exceed pledges. The 1.7°C scenario assumes countries achieve their announced pledges. Why do so many say 1.7°C is impossible? It can't be, by definition. Highlighted text: "In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), the temperature rise in 2100 is 1.7 °C" This graphic is from the latest IEA repor...
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3/ The big IPBES report in 2019 was the only recent major study with a large element of social scientists and it was the most optimistic, saying we can achieve this transformative change, not just scientifically - that it is economically and socially feasible. Transformative change maximizes good quality of life with GROWTH, material, non material and economic - IPCC and IPBES Increasingly we are following this path makes sense [Scroll down page to see second copy of this graphic for the rest of the text] Graphic from page 33 of the appendix to chapter 4 of the IPBES report in 2019 https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/2021-01/GA_chapter_4_supplementary_materials.pdf
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Robert Walker BSc, fact checker for scared people Profile picture
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Robert Walker BSc, fact checker for scared people Profile picture
Oct 3, 2022
1/4 Many people are misreading what Putin said in his annexation speech. He did NOT say Hiroshima and Nagasaki create a precedent for the world to use nukes today

- that would be a very radical
- that would reverse all Russian nuclear policy for decades.
2/4 It is very clear in context that Putin said
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They clip the video just before the second paragraph which makes that clear.
3/4 I go into it in my blog post using the official English translation of Putins' speech as published by the Kremlin.

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