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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Nov 30 • 13 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Key factors to watch in Syria amid the rapid developments.

1. HTS advances: HTS is heading south toward Damascus along the road that links major cities such as Hama and Homs. If it continues on this route that is important. Others factors may try to divert its advance
HTS manpower: HTS has put in the field what appears to be a well trained force that waited for this for years. As it takes over swaths of Syria this could be strained
Russia’s moves: Russia has forces in Syria and could move more but it is focused on Ukraine. It may try to bring in Turkey and Iran as part of the Astana process
Southern Syria former rebels: these groups were defeated in 2018. They never were fully defeated though, they could rise up in Daraa
Iran: having seen Hezbollah losses the IRGC has less to send to Syria. Will Iran do more? It did a bit more for Iraq in 2014
Iraq and its Iranian-backed militias: Iraqi militias such as KH, AAH and Nujaba could intervene in Syria; Sistani would likely look with skepticism on this,
Hezbollah: after losing 4,000 men at the hands of Israel its wings are clipped.
Turkey: it could unleash the SNA to help HTS or use them to fight the SDF.
The SDF: they have made some gains but they must be careful not to get sucked into a fight with HTS or the SNA or be used by the regime
ISIS: ISIS may exploit this to begin attacks in Syria
HTS treatment of minorities: HTS is putting on a new face to try to show it is ready to be inclusive but this will be tested as it comes to control areas with Kurds, Christians, Alawites, Shia, Druze etc
Israel: Israel has carried out many strikes on Iranian entrenchment in Syria and in the past had ties with the southern Syrian rebels. Israel has many concerns about developments
Biden to Trump: supporters of HTS’s Jolani tried outreach to officials in the first Trump admin and in early 2021 also did outreach to legacy media in the U.S. to try to paint HTS as a potential partner. This got little traction. Now Jolani and his backers may try again after handing the world a fait accompli

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 26
Road to the Ceasefire Day 2

Defense Minister Israel Katz to the UN Special Envoy to Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert: “We will act against any threat, anytime and anywhere; we demand effective enforcement from UNIFIL, every house in southern Lebanon that is rebuilt and a terrorist base is established in it will be demolished, every terrorist arming and organization will be attacked, every attempt to smuggle weapons will be thwarted, and every threat to our forces or Israeli citizens will be destroyed immediately."

Photo credit: Israel Ministry of DefenseImage
Katz emphasized that what happened before in Lebanon, will not happen again. “At the beginning of the meeting, Defense Minister Katz emphasized that the State of Israel will not compromise on the sense of security of the residents of the north, and that their return to their homes is the ultimate goal. Within this framework, a situation in which Hezbollah re-arms and strengthens in Lebanon under the watchful eyes of UNIFIL and the Lebanese army will no longer be possible,” Katz’s office said.
Minister Katz clarified that the implementation of the arrangement must include effective and uncompromising enforcement mechanisms, and that it is the responsibility of the various oversight mechanisms to prevent the smuggling of weapons into Hezbollah's hands from all borders, and to prevent the unauthorized production of any weapons in Lebanese territory and the establishment of new terrorist infrastructures.

"Defense Minister Katz made it clear that the Israeli government will demonstrate zero tolerance for violations, and will act resolutely to realize its security interests and continue to stand up for its right to protect its citizens from any threat, anytime and anywhere," his office noted.

He said: "If you don't do it, we will, and with great force."

Defense Minister Israel Katz to the UN Special Envoy to Lebanon: "Whatever happened will not happen. We will act against any threat, anytime and anywhere; we demand effective enforcement from UNIFIL, every house in southern Lebanon that is rebuilt and a terrorist base is established in it will be demolished, every terrorist arming and organization will be attacked, every attempt to smuggle weapons will be thwarted, and every threat to our forces or Israeli citizens will be destroyed immediately."
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 14
I doubt Doha will ever give up its asset Hamas, this has been a huge card that Doha was dealt in 2012 and is immensely profitable and holding onto the card is also a game winner for them, they can use it for leverage over the U.S., Israel, Hamas, Iran. They hold the lever that can heat up or turn down the war in Gaza and wars throughout the region by Iran’s proxies and they control the fate of 101 hostages. It’s massive for them.
Doha happened upon this strategy almost twenty years ago. While other countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE were turning against extremism, they realized that by openly hosting extremists they would get more leverage with the U.S. and the west because they could say “as long as we host them we can stop them attacking you”…so they could openly fund these groups and spread extremism via their media. The U.S. actually critiqued other countries more for terror finance than Doha which openly financed Hamas
By hosting the Taliban and Hamas Doha became the go-to for talks abs “mediation” playing both sides while other gulf states lost out. The U.S. rewarded Doha more and gave it major non-NATO ally status. The stronger Hamas and the Taliban got, the more suffering in Gaza and Kabul the more the west adored Doha. Suffering and hosting extremists became the main way to get backing in the west. Pushing tolerance and coexistence was a one-way ticket to a cold shoulder, oddly
Read 6 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 10
There are only two sides to the mob violence in Amsterdam.
-One side supports having police presence to protect people from mob violence.
-One side supports mob violence and argues that it is justified and excuses it and say "what about" and "they started it."
You're either on the side of mobs taking over cities, or on the side of peace and law and order.

There's no third side here. The side that backs the attacks on the Israeli fans has only one response, which is to claim the Israelis "started it." They never argue police should arrest the Israelis
You know how you know the side that backs the mob violence is lying about Israelis "starting it." They never say the police should investigate and detain Israeli "hooligans." Because they know the only hooligans are the mobs.
Read 15 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 9
The fact that Hamas was hosted by Doha encouraged Hamas to kidnap people and hold them hostage because it knew it could than do talks in Doha. It actually increased suffering in this respect. Because it incentivized Hamas to take hostages and target civilian areas to get hostages
Think of a different scenarior where Hamas was only hosted by Iran, a country that doesn't negotiate with Israel and can't "mediate." Hamas would have no incentive to take hundreds of hostages. Hamas would still want to attack, but it would be able to use a western ally as mediator
Hamas also knew that being hosted by Qatar meant that it could use this connection to get a better deal. Doha benefited by dragging out the deal so Doha would be necessary and needed; and Hamas also benefited. This incentivized Hamas to hold more hostages for longer.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 9
It increasingly looks like Doha may be trying to "play" this issue to get maximum benefit for itself. It poses as a mediator but it's real goal is now to appear to pause mediation in order to pressure Israel, it seems.
The reports about Hamas leaders being asked to leave Qatar or their office being closed may now be twisted by Doha such that it becomes about how, if the Hamas office is closed, then who will mediate.
Basically what Doha may be doing is trying to get out ahead of this issue by making it seem like it is pausing mediation, and that if Hamas leaves then definitely Doha can't mediate. It could but it will choose not to. This would put Israel in the awkward position of being pressured to ask Doha not to expel Hamas.
Read 9 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
Nov 9
I've noticed a trend in discussions about the attack on Israelis, Jews and others in Amsterdam after a game. Those who support the attacks or excuse them always claim it was Israelis who "provoked" it via chants or some other activity.
What you'll notice is that those who excuse the attacks never argue that police should have made sure to protect people. The people who say "both sides" did something also never say police and authorities should have prevented the violence.
You'll notice many posts saying "Israelis tore down Palestinian flags" or "Israelis attacked taxi drivers" or "Israelis booed a memorial for victims of Spanish floods." But these people NEVER say that police should have intervened to stop these "Israelis" from doing these things.
Read 9 tweets

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