Thread by @emilkastehelmi

This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/

Already at the end of the summer, the situation seemed to be developing in a worrying direction. Especially in August, the Russian gains were relatively large, and it did not seem like the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk would significantly slow down the Russians. 2/

During the fall, while making progress in Ukraine, Russia also conducted several counterattacks in Kursk. Ukraine lost the western flank of the salient, while also losing positions in the east. Between September and November, Ukraine didn’t advance significantly in the area. 3/

Main focus of the Russian offensive this fall has been the area of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove. In November, after the loss of Vuhledar, Russians also advanced quickly to Velyka Novosilka. Currently, most of the changes on the frontline are happening on a 140 km section. 4/

Russians are pressuring elsewhere too, but have not gained much in the big picture. Ukrainians held the Toretsk-Chasiv Yar-Siversk direction well, denying Russians of any greater progress in northern Donetsk. The front in Zaporizhzhia didn’t see much change during this fall. 5/

In Kupiansk, the Russians managed to advance to the Oskil river, cutting the Ukrainian presence there in half. However, this can be considered a secondary front without very significant opportunities for the Russians, regardless of whether they are on the river or not. 6/

What can we expect from the rest of the year? Based on the current trends, the Russians can likely continue their offensive in the Pokrovsk-Velyka Novosilka direction. It can be expected that additional 500-700 km2 of Ukrainian land will be occupied. 7/

Russia will likely try to continue advancing in Kursk too, but concentrating very heavy forces there wouldn’t be the best usage of their troops. However, the same applies to Ukraine. Reserves would be needed elsewhere, as the eastern front has had constant setbacks for months. 8/

I’ve been posting a bit less recently, as I’ve been very busy with work. Various articles, reports, lectures, presentations, interviews, TV appearances, a podcast series and my upcoming non-fiction book military history have taken most of my time. 9/

However, we at @Black_BirdGroup still follow the situation closely. You can also find me and us from the other place with bluer skies, if that’s your preferred platform nowadays.10/10

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