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Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
@ChazNuttycombe
Dec 1 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Lots of reasons Wikler would be a strong DNC Chair, the WI DEM track record being the biggest one, especially in comparison to other state parties here.
PA DEMs held the line in the state legislature, which is impressive, but lost the US Senate race and lost a seat they should have won in north Philly. MI Dems lost the House. MN Dems had a major fumble.
Meanwhile WI DEMs swept in the Senate and won everything rated Lean D+ in our Assembly forecast; can't say the same for MN DEMs, they lost a lot of winnable state house races this year.
Also obviously worth mentioning WI trended hard to the left this year. Going back to 2022: Ds prevented a GOP supermajority in the Assembly. 2023: flipped the State Supreme Court.
Wikler's got the strongest track record out of any of the [potential] candidates, point, blank, period.

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More from @ChazNuttycombe

Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Nov 17
🚨DEMS HAVE FLIPPED THE ALASKA HOUSE🚨

With the Bush Caucus rejoining Democrats, a majority coalition has been formed with 14 Democrats, 5 Nonpartisans, and 2 Republicans, totaling 21 seats. We have just one more uncalled race in the AK House.

projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/sl/resul…Image
We had Democratic-aligned Coalition candidates favored to win 19 seats in our final forecast. R-Coalition Members in two Bush Caucus seats were favored to win re-election, and did, but they've defected to form a DEM coalition. This'll be counted as a win for our chamber accuracy.
However, we missed 3 seats in the chamber this year, (Rs won 1 we had Ds favored in, Ds won 2 we had Rs favored in) which isn't as impressive as in 2020 and 2022 when our forecast hit 39/40 seats each time.
Read 5 tweets
Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Aug 18
🚨PRESIDENTIAL, US HOUSE, STATE LEGISLATIVE FORECAST UPDATES🚨

Today we have a LOT of rating changes at @CNalysis up and down the ballot, so this is going to be a whole thread of them, please read through!

1st, the presidency. Harris is now favored:

projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/president


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Before going further into rating changes, we'd appreciate it at @CNalysis if you supported our work so we can have a strong finish to this election season over the next 78 days. We've got a lot of stuff coming out that I and our staff is working on: paypal.com/donate/?hosted…
US President 8/18/2024 Rating Changes

We have 6 rating changes: four states, and two CDs

North Carolina | Lean R → Tilt R
New Mexico | Very Likely D → Solid D
Virginia | Likely D → Solid D
Michigan | Toss-Up → Tilt D
ME-2 | Solid R → Very Likely R
NE-2 | Lean D → Likely D
Read 24 tweets
Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Dec 4, 2023
Something that would be smart for Democrats to do in 2024 is to run on Republicans' book bans. Given the local elections this year and their simultaneous results for partisan offices, it has been an unsung, winning issue for them in 2023.
It's like a reverse Tea Party situation with what we've seen this year in these local elections for school board, and they're helping pull Democrats running for state legislative office in their partisan races across the finish line.
Abortion obviously was a driving factor but something that's under-discussed is how two years ago, Republicans were successfully bashing Democrats on education in Virginia, but Republicans were on defense this year, and Democrats won handily in the suburbs in these local SBs.
Read 4 tweets
Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Nov 14, 2023
With everything counted, Chris Obenshain wins by 0.7%. Since this was a Trump +0.8 district, Lily Franklin (D) is the only candidate in the competitive Virginia state legislative races this year that outran President Biden's 2020 margin.
only Democratic candidate*
Quite frankly given that Franklin came this close with <19,000 registrants in the district, this shows just how strong of a candidate she is and how Democratic the district is becoming. Obenshain's going to be in a Toss-Up race come 2025.
Read 5 tweets
Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
That's it for the night. Here's where we are.
Read 7 tweets
Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Jun 20, 2023
VIRGINIA PRIMARY THREAD

Here's a thread of tweets on the Virginia primary tonight that needs to be in your feed, from me and other observers. I'll be calling up registers later today asking about turnout.

Thread ends at 6:00 PM.
Read 7 tweets

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