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Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Chaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombe
Director of @CNalysis.com. Nonpartisan state legislative elections expert and forecaster of six years. Opinions my own. VT '24. Contact: charles@cnalysis.com
Dec 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Something that would be smart for Democrats to do in 2024 is to run on Republicans' book bans. Given the local elections this year and their simultaneous results for partisan offices, it has been an unsung, winning issue for them in 2023. It's like a reverse Tea Party situation with what we've seen this year in these local elections for school board, and they're helping pull Democrats running for state legislative office in their partisan races across the finish line.
Nov 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
With everything counted, Chris Obenshain wins by 0.7%. Since this was a Trump +0.8 district, Lily Franklin (D) is the only candidate in the competitive Virginia state legislative races this year that outran President Biden's 2020 margin. only Democratic candidate*
Nov 8, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
That's it for the night. Here's where we are.
Jun 20, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
VIRGINIA PRIMARY THREAD

Here's a thread of tweets on the Virginia primary tonight that needs to be in your feed, from me and other observers. I'll be calling up registers later today asking about turnout.

Thread ends at 6:00 PM.
Mar 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
📊FORECAST LAUNCH📊

Three years ago today, my website @CNalysis went live. Today, on our third anniversary, we're launching our forecasts for the 2023 state legislative elections in VA & NJ.

VA: projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/state-le…

NJ: projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/state-le… ImageImageImageImage Democrats are slightly favored to flip the VA House and hold the VA Senate. You can read our summary here: cnalysis.com/articles/initi…
Nov 25, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The second most important election in 2023 is the WI Supreme Court race. The first, obviously, are the state legislative elections in VA. I'm only putting VA ahead of WI because Youngkin's only chance of being a successful presidential candidate for 2024 depends on the result of that election, and it could be the first time since 2011 that the GOP won a trifecta.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Each party has won 97 seats in the PA House, with 9 seats up for grabs, Ds lead in 5 seats and GOP lead in 4 seats right now. 3 are extremely close: 151 (R+0.1), 142 (D+0.0), 144 (D+1.3).

projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/results/… Image This is a nailbiter, folks.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In a stunning upset, Jason Probst (D) of KS HD-102 has apparently won re-election to his Trump +15 State House seat in Hutchinson We had this as Lean R