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Chaz Nuttycombe Profile picture
Chaz Nuttycombe
@ChazNuttycombe
Executive Director @StateNavigate. State legislative elections forecaster & pollster. @virginia_tech alumni. Opinions are my own. chaz@statenavigate.org
Nov 2 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
VA AG race will be a test of a well-known bias in polling: social desirability bias. Typically when you have a candidate w a scandal, they overperform their polling as there are respondents who, instead of giving their actual opinion, give the socially acceptable answer. In @Nick_Goedert's 2014 paper examining scandal-tarred incumbents for Congress:

"polls of incumbents not accused of scandal overestimate incumbent support by 4.1%, polls of scandal-tarred incumbents underestimate incumbent support by 2.6%; the total scandal effect
is 6.7%." Image
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Dec 1, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Lots of reasons Wikler would be a strong DNC Chair, the WI DEM track record being the biggest one, especially in comparison to other state parties here. PA DEMs held the line in the state legislature, which is impressive, but lost the US Senate race and lost a seat they should have won in north Philly. MI Dems lost the House. MN Dems had a major fumble.
Nov 17, 2024 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
🚨DEMS HAVE FLIPPED THE ALASKA HOUSE🚨

With the Bush Caucus rejoining Democrats, a majority coalition has been formed with 14 Democrats, 5 Nonpartisans, and 2 Republicans, totaling 21 seats. We have just one more uncalled race in the AK House.

projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/sl/resul…Image We had Democratic-aligned Coalition candidates favored to win 19 seats in our final forecast. R-Coalition Members in two Bush Caucus seats were favored to win re-election, and did, but they've defected to form a DEM coalition. This'll be counted as a win for our chamber accuracy.
Aug 18, 2024 • 24 tweets • 10 min read
🚨PRESIDENTIAL, US HOUSE, STATE LEGISLATIVE FORECAST UPDATES🚨

Today we have a LOT of rating changes at @CNalysis up and down the ballot, so this is going to be a whole thread of them, please read through!

1st, the presidency. Harris is now favored:

projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/president


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Image Before going further into rating changes, we'd appreciate it at @CNalysis if you supported our work so we can have a strong finish to this election season over the next 78 days. We've got a lot of stuff coming out that I and our staff is working on: paypal.com/donate/?hosted…
Dec 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Something that would be smart for Democrats to do in 2024 is to run on Republicans' book bans. Given the local elections this year and their simultaneous results for partisan offices, it has been an unsung, winning issue for them in 2023. It's like a reverse Tea Party situation with what we've seen this year in these local elections for school board, and they're helping pull Democrats running for state legislative office in their partisan races across the finish line.
Nov 14, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
With everything counted, Chris Obenshain wins by 0.7%. Since this was a Trump +0.8 district, Lily Franklin (D) is the only candidate in the competitive Virginia state legislative races this year that outran President Biden's 2020 margin. only Democratic candidate*
Nov 8, 2023 • 7 tweets • 1 min read
That's it for the night. Here's where we are.
Jun 20, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
VIRGINIA PRIMARY THREAD

Here's a thread of tweets on the Virginia primary tonight that needs to be in your feed, from me and other observers. I'll be calling up registers later today asking about turnout.

Thread ends at 6:00 PM.
Mar 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
📊FORECAST LAUNCH📊

Three years ago today, my website @CNalysis went live. Today, on our third anniversary, we're launching our forecasts for the 2023 state legislative elections in VA & NJ.

VA: projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/state-le…

NJ: projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/state-le… ImageImageImageImage Democrats are slightly favored to flip the VA House and hold the VA Senate. You can read our summary here: cnalysis.com/articles/initi…
Nov 25, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The second most important election in 2023 is the WI Supreme Court race. The first, obviously, are the state legislative elections in VA. I'm only putting VA ahead of WI because Youngkin's only chance of being a successful presidential candidate for 2024 depends on the result of that election, and it could be the first time since 2011 that the GOP won a trifecta.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Each party has won 97 seats in the PA House, with 9 seats up for grabs, Ds lead in 5 seats and GOP lead in 4 seats right now. 3 are extremely close: 151 (R+0.1), 142 (D+0.0), 144 (D+1.3).

projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/results/… Image This is a nailbiter, folks.
Nov 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
In a stunning upset, Jason Probst (D) of KS HD-102 has apparently won re-election to his Trump +15 State House seat in Hutchinson We had this as Lean R