🧵 Can Save Trump Save the Dollar with Threats Against BRICS?
I cannot remember Trump ever talking about BRICS, but the first time he did was to threaten the multilateral organization with 100% tariffs, if it creates a BRICS currency.
Why?
America’s prosperity depends on the “exorbitant privilege” of USD
This allows US to run massive budget and trade deficits every year.
Trump knows it.
"If we lose the global reserve currency status of the dollar, we will become a third-world country! "
In the past, US deep state & military would stage coups, assassinate leaders or invade countries if anyone decided to walk away from the dollar – Iraq and Libya, for example.
So much for freedom, choice, sovereignty, free trade, rules-based order, and free-market capitalism.
Trump does not talk about WHY so many countries want to join BRICS.
Two main reasons:
1. Weaponization of US dollar thru sanctions -- e.g., US stole $400 billion of Russia/s FOREX
2. Globalists use the dollar to create a military empire that causes perpetual wars & chaos.
Ask Americans why the USD is the #1 choice for trade and FOREX, they will tell you it’s because the dollar is strong, enjoys vast liquidity, and US economy is free, open and the best.
That’s propaganda.
The dollar’s hegemony is based on tyranny. And it’s coming to an end.
Ask the British, Portuguese, Spanish, French etc. about the history of their currencies.
Nothing lasts forever, especially the global reserve currency status -- see chart below.
#Trump #BRICS
US dollar’s market share in global reserves was 0 before the end of WW1. That’s right -- zero, nada, zilch.
British Pound, German Mark and French Franc accounted for 80% of the global reserves.
WW1 weakened Europe & gave the dollar a chance, although the share started to dwindle during the Great Depression.
In 1944 -- midst of WW2 -- US brought world leaders to Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and forced USD upon them.
The gold-backed dollar lasted for ~25 years.
USD almost died in the 1970s, when it was revived by a deal with Saudi Arabia – this was the birth of the Petrodollar.
Having one currency dominate the world is imperialism.
The multipolar train has left the station. Everyone is seeking alternatives to dollar.
This includes trading in local currencies and also trying to create a BRICS currency -- democratic and free from sanctions.
It's going to take some time for the US dollar to lose its "King" status.
Look how long it took for the British Pound to lose its status after WW2.
So, the dollar probably has another 10-15 years.
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Let’s put this fantasy to rest once and for all. There are two types of Americans who would wish to decouple from China:
💠Warmongers who know they cannot start a war with China, if the US economy is dependent on the geopolitical rival.
💠Those who wish to reduce US’ trade deficit and bring manufacturing back.
However, here are the reasons why trade wars with China are not easy and cannot be won:
1) This has been tried for the last 8 years with Trump tariffs, Biden tariffs, sanctions, friend-shoring and re-shoring. US imports from China have been stubbornly hovering around $450 billion a year since 2016. (see chart)
2) Note that this $450 billion translates to perhaps $4 trillion of sales and millions of retails jobs within the US economy. Like, how Trump pays $3 for a bible printed in China and sells it for $30!
3) There are many products for which China accounts for 50-100% of the US imports. It has been impossible to find alternate suppliers.
Some of these products include critical minerals and medicines, which are indispensable for normal functioning of US economy. Simply imagine the riots in the US if the shelves in Walmart, Target etc. are empty.
4) While the US has greatly increased imports from Mexico, Vietnam, India etc., guess what? Those countries buy intermediate goods from China, assemble them into final products, and export them to the US.
Thus, the supply chain is still dependent on China.
Americans are simply buying Chinese goods through a third party. This is why China’s exports to those countries have increased a lot since 2018. Fact is that nobody can match China’s scale, speed, price and quality. (see chart)
5) Companies like Apple and Tesla cannot survive without China. Those two companies have a combined market cap of $4.5 trillion!
Consider that one-third of all Tesla cars in the world are made in Shanghai; and 80% of iPhones are still assembled in China.
Then, there are companies like Starbucks, KFC, McDonald’s and countless American retail, fashion and hospitality (hotel) companies for whom China is the #1 or #2 largest market in the world. Same holds true for US tech giants like Qualcomm and Nvidia.
The S&P 500 companies earn $1 trillion from annual sales within China.
As Tim Cook said today, “We (Apple) cannot do what we do without China.” Heck, even the US military industrial complex depends on China – as Raytheon’s CEO admitted that his company depends on thousands of Chinese suppliers.
6) All the allies and vassals of the US are also highly interconnected with China. For Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia etc., their #1 trade partner is… China!
7) Finally, the big picture: China is the world’s largest trading nation. It is #1 in manufacturing, #1 in exports, and #2 in imports.
China's primacy in manufacturing will keep increasing. By 2030, China will account for 45% of global manufacturing! (see chart)
China is also #1 in patents and #1 in scientific papers. This is why Europe is now begging for technology transfer from Chinese companies to figure out how to make EV batteries, solar panels etc.
The US could have decoupled from China 30 years. However, now, it’s mission impossible.
Interestingly, as China becomes more independent and catches up in semiconductor technology, soon, the reverse could be possible – that is, China could decouple from the US!
Two more charts:
How China’s exports to Mexico and India have skyrocketed since the US-China trade wars began:
“China is the largest source of imports for 26 of the 59 minerals classified as critical by the U.S. government.”
Furthermore, China supplies 100% of 12 critical minerals for the US!