Ukraine Def. Minister Mykhailo Fedorov: cut Russia’s Starlink access, signed a record Patriot missile contract, bought more drones in one quarter than in all of last year, launched an AI center, reorganized the MoD and started an audit of the defense-industrial complex. 1/
Three months of new leadership — Fedorov for United24. First move: together with SpaceX, they cut Russia’s access to Starlink terminals. The Russian army lost communications for managing Shahed drones. 2/
Created a dedicated small air defense command and appointed Pavlo Lazar as deputy commander. Introduced after-action review for every strike on critical infrastructure and a rapid response mechanism. Interception rates across all aerial threats increased. 3/
“I am Ukrainian. If you [Russians] come here, I will have no choice but to kill every one of you who signs a contract.”
A Ukrainian soldier crashed a Russian university recruitment Zoom call in Krasnodar after posing as a Russian drone officer — The Telegraph. 1/
“The front line has barely moved in four years and Russia’s invasion created “a cemetery the size of two countries. Any Russian who steps onto Ukrainian soil will be killed.” 2/
The call took place at Kuban State Agrarian University, where students were being recruited for Russia’s drone forces. Staff cut the feed only after he warned that all their faces were recorded. 3/
Kasparov: Trump made the worst geopolitical mistake by separating Iran from Ukraine.
He openly sides with Putin against Ukraine while attacking Iran, even though the drones hitting US bases and Gulf allies were Iranian designs whose effectiveness was improved by Russia. 1/
Kasparov: At the UN, America no longer votes with Ukraine and Europe. It votes with Russia, Belarus, Nicaragua and North Korea.
That is shame beyond imagination. US reputation has been damaged so badly that I am not sure the next president will be able to restore it quickly. 2/
Kasparov: Europe is at war.
Putin will try to spread it, and there are growing chances Russia starts land provocations against NATO countries next, maybe even before the end of this year. You do not negotiate with cancer. You cut it off. 3X
China is expanding into Russian-occupied Ukraine. Its firms handle cash-yuan trade at 80 Donbas bank branches and ship mining equipment and heavy trucks across the occupied territory.
Beijing officially does not recognize the occupation — United24. 1/
Large state-owned Chinese corporations avoid the region to dodge secondary sanctions. Medium-sized private firms fill the gap.
Chinese students and community leaders based in Russia act as intermediaries, keeping ties with manufacturers back home. 2/
In 2022, occupation authorities revived the abandoned Karan quarry in Donetsk. By late 2023, it signed deals with two Chinese firms for rock-crushing equipment.
Locals now call it the "Chinese quarry." Its stone builds the Novorossiya highway linking Rostov to Crimea. 3/
The US-Israeli war on Iran is a gift to Moscow and Beijing.
Russia and China are feeding Iran a full kill chain — imagery and signals intelligence for targeting US and Israeli forces, plus damage assessment after the strikes — Jon B. Alterman and Ali Vaez, Foreign Affairs. 1/
Moscow and Beijing see the Ukraine playbook in reverse. The US has tied down Russia for four years at a cost of tens of billions.
Now they want the US mired in a simmering Gulf war that drains American resources and erodes its standing. 2/
Trump waived sanctions on Russian oil to rein in prices — an economic windfall for Moscow.
Iran's Shahed, upgraded with Russian battlefield lessons from Ukraine, now penetrates US-engineered defenses. Moscow is sharing further enhancements with Tehran. 3/
Stubb: If Russia fired missiles at 12 European countries, we’d call it world war.
Europe’s position is clear: keep the Strait of Hormuz open and defend freedom of navigation. Once there’s a ceasefire or deal, Europe can help monitor and secure it with allies. 1/
Stubb: Any Iran deal has four pillars: uranium enrichment, ending proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, limiting missiles, and securing the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran now sees Hormuz as leverage — a kind of economic nuclear weapon controlling 20% of global oil exports. 2/
Stubb: Russia-Ukraine talks are stuck for two reasons: US focus on Iran and Russia’s unwillingness to make peace.
Three scenarios remain — war continues, peace, or one side weakens. The most likely is continued war, with Ukraine in a much stronger position than a year ago. 3X