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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 4

Sikorski: When the U.S. went into the Vietnam War, the UK did not join.

NATO has survived these problems before, like France leaving the Joint Command and the Iraq war. We are free countries. We have public opinion. 1/

Sikorski: Poland spends the largest share of GDP on defense in NATO, 4.8% more than the United States, and our military budget is $55 billion a year.

But we're still at peace, and we're closer now to understanding each other's [US-NATO] approaches. 2/

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Given the war with Iran and his skepticism about some of his allies, I think we need to do more. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Apr 4

Every US president chose diplomacy over force, waited too long, and North Korea now has 50 nuclear warheads and ICBMs that can reach the continental US that mistake with Iran by learning North Korea lesson.

Trump decided not to repeat that mistake with Iran, writes WSJ. 1/

In 1984 the CIA warned North Korea was pursuing weapons-grade plutonium.

Pyongyang joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1985 — then spent years delaying safeguards, blocking inspectors and advancing its program in secret. 2/

In 1994 Clinton was trending toward military strikes on North Korean nuclear sites. Then Carter flew to Pyongyang announced a tentative deal on CNN, and military options came off the table.

In 1994 gave North Korea civilian nuclear power and oil for freezing its program. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Apr 4

Petraeus: War in the Middle East is a snippet of the future of war, but not on the scale in Ukraine.

9,000 drones a day. They double production from 3.5M to 7M this year. The future of war is autonomous systems with edge computing and algorithm that takes action. 1/

Petraeus: Ukraine has army, navy, air force, and unmanned systems force. You can see how drone units rank based on points given for different targets.

You redeem points on an Amazon-like website for weapon systems and components. It's extraordinary. 2/

Petraeus: An offensive by the Russians now is 3 soldiers running across the street with a drone or two on top, maybe an electric scooter for mobility. Tanks get killed immediately. 3/

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Apr 4

Keane: Leaving the Strait of Hormuz in Iranian hands would show Tehran and the world that it can hold Persian Gulf oil hostage to achieve its political aims.

We cannot let that happen. The US has very good plans to take that away from Iran, and can accomplish that mission. 1/

Keane: Iran has a lot of bluster and propaganda, but the facts are real: it is losing capability day in, day out.

The operation is a little over 30 days in and clearly more than halfway. Assigned objectives should drive the finish and commanders should make those calls. 2/

Keane: Allies refusing support is not just disappointing. It is outrageous. The world economy depends on Middle East oil, and everybody benefits from pushing back Iran.

France will not let the US fly over its airspace, and others will not let the US use its own bases to support the war. 3X

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Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Apr 4

Bolton: It is completely justified to strike Iran to stop it from getting nuclear weapons.

This regime has shouted death to America and death to Israel for 47 years. It is a terrorist regime, and in January it machine-gunned 32,000 people in the streets. 1/

Bolton: We have tried for decades to change Iran’s behavior through diplomacy and economic pressure.

We have tried hard and always failed. When you cannot change an adversary’s behavior, you either put up with the threat or you change the regime. 2/

Bolton: It doesn’t matter if there was an imminent threat. If you wait until there’s an imminent threat, you’ve waited too long, because intelligence can be imperfect.

I do not want to accept a world where these crazed rulers have nuclear weapons in hand. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

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Apr 4

What Trump could do with Marines in Iran war

WSJ: The MEU could be used to raid or seize islands in the Strait of Hormuz that have been militarized by Tehran. It could also be part of an effort to seize Kharg Island, a launch point for 90 % of Iran's oil exports. 1/

WSJ: Military strategists say an attempt to capture Kharg would be extremely risky and could require more troops and equipment.

Marines could also escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz or play a role in seizing ships carrying Iranian oil. 2/

WSJ: The MEU could be used as military deception to draw Iran’s attention while another operation is launched.

The 31st MEU out of Japan is now in the Middle East, the 11th MEU out of California is on its way, and elements of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are deploying. 3X