Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 15
McFaul: Iran has a good reason to think it did not lose.

Trump team declared Epic Fury over without achieving its major goals: no nuclear deal, no missile limits, no end to terror funding, no regime change. 1/
McFaul: If the Americans have already quit, Iran is in a strong negotiating position.

Now the whole discussion is about reopening Hormuz — something that was open before Epic Fury even started. That is perfect for Tehran. 2/
McFaul: Trump never clearly explained why America needed this war.

That makes it almost impossible to explain how he is ending it — especially when none of the goals he used to justify the war are being achieved. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 15
Last night Russia bombed Kyiv for 8 hours and killed 24 people.

Today it forced the city into air raid sirens again. KSE students ran to shelters four times during classes and came back to continue studying each time.

This is what university life in Kyiv looks like now. 1/
On May 14 Russia launched 1,560 drones at Ukraine in 24 hours — one of the largest drone attack since the start of the full-scale war.

Most of them hit Kyiv. Air raid sirens lasted from 00:50 until 8:43 a.m. 2/
Nobody forced students to return to classrooms after a night like that. They came anyway. And nobody will stop them. Not Putin. Not drones or missiles. Not exhaustion.

KSE students keep studying, working, and supporting each other because they refuse to live in survival mode. 3/
Read 4 tweets
May 15
Even Satan cannot save Putin — Telegraph.

His latest nuclear threats is attempt to convince Russians that he still holds cards.

After 4 years of war, much of its Black Sea Fleet damaged, territorial gains limited, so Moscow relies on nuclear rhetoric to project strength. 1/ Image
Kremlin’s latest showpiece is the RS-28 Sarmat, branded “Satan II.”

Putin claims it can strike targets 21,750 miles away and bypass Western missile defenses — but the program suffered repeated delays and failed tests. 2/
Sarmat is liquid-fueled, requiring lengthy launch preparation from fixed silos — a vulnerability against modern precision-strike systems used by NATO countries. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 15
Putin’s system was built specifically to survive rumors of coups, elite dissent, and instability.

Every arrest, defection rumor, mysterious death, or crackdown can itself become a tool to justify even harsher repression and reinforce fear inside Russia, Sean Wiswesser for FA. 1/ Image
Putin did not “learn authoritarianism” after taking power.

He entered the Kremlin as a career KGB officer already trained in surveillance, coercion, elite control, and suppression of dissent from inside Soviet security structures. 2/
His system is layered around overlapping security forces loyal personally to him.

FSB: 350,000-400,000 personnel. Rosgvardia: 300,000. Federal Protective Service: 50,000 protecting Putin, state infrastructure, and continuity of government. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 15
The US-China relationship is a zero-sum contest. Their meetings and negotiations do not change that — even after Xi and Trump’s summit in Beijing on May 14th, writes The Economist. 1/
Xi greeted Trump with a ceremony on Tiananmen Square, talks in the Great Hall of the People and an escorted tour of the Temple of Heaven — the first American president to visit it since 1975. 2/
Trump called Xi a “great leader” and said they would have “a fantastic future together.” The main goal: extend the year-long trade truce agreed in South Korea last October. At their peak, Trump’s tariffs on some Chinese goods reached 145%. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 15
NYT: Ceasfires don’t work under Trump.

USA brokered five temporary truces in the Russia-Ukraine war since Trump returned to power. Every time, violations marred them.

As the latest truce expired, Russia bombed Ukraine again. 12 civilins killed.

1/ Image
Analyst Joshi studied 42 comprehensive peace agreements reached between 1989 and 2018. A successful peace process takes an average of 1,570 days of technical labor.

The latest Russia-Ukraine truce lacked independent oversight and a substantive political foundation.

2/
Georgetown professor Byman: "For the president, a cease-fire equals 'peace.'"

Trump announced the latest truce in a Truth Social post. His envoys Witkoff and Kushner have halted peace talks for months.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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