Historian Sarah Paine: This is the Russian business model. Say your business is doing well. One of Putin's security-service enforcers comes to your house and says: I want a monthly payment from you.
That's a mafia shakedown, going back in Russian history forever. 1/
Paine: Putin's own circle owns the refineries Ukraine keeps striking, destroying Russian wealth. Putin wants Donbas, he wants Crimea. For what?
Russians need a legal system that lets them build wealth and live decent lives at home, not more territory. 2X
Sikorski: In January 2022, Russia made a brief military move into Kazakhstan to interfere in its succession. I believe China told Russia: get out right now, or we'll cut off trade. Russia obeyed.
It can't prosecute this war without trade with China. 1/
Sikorski: China could actually force Russia to end the war. My guess is the war suits China just fine.
Russia sells China gold, and grows more dependent on it every year. What's not to like about that? 2/
Sikorski: Like Weimar Germany, and Tsarist Russia in World War One, Putin's Russia is running out of the resources to keep fighting. I think he probably has enough for another year or so. 3X
Sikorski: Putin has a couple of cards left. One is mobilization, risky for him politically.
The other — after destroying 80% of Ukraine's electricity and heat capacity, hope another hard winter leaves only nuclear power to survive it. 1/
Sikorski: The relationship between Trump and Zelensky, choppy in the past, seems better now. There are rumors Trump's envoys might visit Kyiv for the first time.
Even some MAGA figures have come around on Ukraine, and Republicans back tougher sanctions on Russia. 2X
Today, a Russian-run agent tried to kill Ihor Obolenskyi, Khartiia’s commander, in Kharkiv.
Yuriy Butusov, journalist: A 69-year-old agent walked up from behind, aimed a Makarov from 3 meters, and pulled the trigger. In panic, he had not chambered a round. 1/
Butusov: The suspect, 69-year-old Kharkiv resident Henadii Parfeniuk, had a spotter watching Obolenskyi and directing him to the place where the commander would appear.
Parfeniuk stayed on the phone with the organizer through earphones while he waited. 2/
Butusov: When Obolenskyi walked outside, Parfeniuk received the order and came up behind him and his bodyguard.
He aimed a Makarov pistol at them and pulled the trigger, but the shot failed. Butusov says Parfeniuk had not chambered a round. 3/
Theresa May: It cannot be business as usual with Russia. It wasn’t after the Salisbury attack, and certainly not after what has happened in Ukraine.
People often ask me what Putin is like. Once a KGB man, always a KGB man. 1/
May: Russia and Putin are under significant strain. The economy has been hit hard, and Russia is losing significant numbers of personnel, both killed and wounded.
Ukraine is rapidly improving its ability to fight, and the balance is shifting. 2/
May: The shifting balance does not mean negotiations will happen soon. They may still be some time away.
But the war cannot end with Russia winning. We cannot allow Russia to win. 3X