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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 6

Putin faces a succession crisis in Chechnya that could erupt into a new war inside Russia, draining troops and money he needs for Ukraine — Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy.

The region's ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, 49, is probably terminally ill, and his heir is his 18-year-old son. 1/

Putin built his presidency by crushing Chechen rebels in the late 1990s, then made a deal with Akhmad Kadyrov. Kadyrov suppressed the insurgency and accepted Moscow's rule, and in return ran Chechnya as he pleased.

A bomb killed Akhmad in 2004. Power passed to his son Ramzan. 2/

That autonomy runs on Russian cash. Moscow transfers $3.8 billion to Chechnya every year, about 92 percent of the republic's entire budget.

Kadyrov treats the money as a personal slush fund and spends it on whim, paying for a lavish lifestyle and a private security force. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 6

Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US, Stefanishyna: If Russia had any real desire to negotiate or compromise, there would be zero obstacles.

Ukraine has shown openness and flexibility in every format proposed, including by President Trump. The aggressor never had real intent. 1/

Stefanishyna: Ukraine’s capabilities are now seen and felt by Russia on its own territory.

They deprive Moscow of the ability to attack Ukrainian cities and kill more families. That pressure is one reason Putin is being forced back toward the option of dialogue. 2/

Stefanishyna: Ukraine is depriving Russia of the fuel of war, literally fuel, but also the resources Moscow gains from selling products abroad and using sanctions waivers to finance aggression.

Deep strikes cut the money and capabilities that keep Russia’s war going. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 6

Gen. Wesley Clark: Putin is trapped. He sees no way out that preserves his survival as Russia’s leader, so he keeps pushing and hopes Trump’s friendship, Chinese help, Iranian help and U.S. distraction will cut support to Ukraine until Ukraine somehow collapses. 1/

Clark: Putin really believed he could seize Kyiv, capture Zelenskyy, shoot him in the street and take over, despite 10 years of war already showing Ukraine’s resistance.

He did not understand the spirit of Ukraine and was blinded by his own desire. 2/

Clark: Putin is not a military leader. He is an intelligence man. Stalin knew armies, fear and losses from war.

Putin knows war from books, but he does not know it. That matters when fantasy meets a battlefield that refuses to obey. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 6

Even some of Russia’s most prominent hawks are starting to say publicly that Russia cannot win this war.

The debate inside Russia is no longer how to achieve victory in Ukraine. It is whether victory is still possible at all, WSJ. 1/

Oleg Tsaryov was supposed to become the Kremlin’s man in Kyiv after Russia captured the Ukrainian capital in 2022.

Now he says Russian propaganda created an illusion of inevitable victory that is colliding with reality “in the most painful form.” 2/

Aleksey Chadaev, a former Kremlin official who runs a drone warfare research center, warns the current course leads “not just to non-victory, but to full-scale defeat.”

He argues Russia needs a pause to reorganize. 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 5

Khrushcheva, great-granddaughter of Soviet leader:

There's no [Ukraine] deal because Putin wants what he wants.

Trump likes strongmen, so Putin thought he could milk it. In Anchorage last August Trump probably said he'd push Zelenskyy out of Donbas. He couldn't deliver. 1/

Khrushcheva: Putin thinks history will favor him — that's why he pushes for Donbas, a promise he must keep.

But most Russians don't care and didn't want this war, only 20–25% did. They call it a special military operation, but an operation can't last 4.5 years. 2/

Khrushcheva: Putin is not in a good position now. He had a great chance to end the war with Trump from March to August, who gave him every opportunity.

He could have been a victor if he didn't want as much. I'm not sure he goes into history as Peter the Great. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 5

Starmer: The UK and NATO intelligence assess Russia could attack a NATO country as soon as 2030.

That's the urgency behind everything we're doing now.

1/

Starmer: Ukraine war pushed energy prices up. Iran crisis pushed them up again.

UK deploys forces to the Gulf defending civilian targets from Iranian attacks — our pilots were airborne within hours. All of this hits our resources at home.

2/

Starmer: The conflict extends beyond Ukraine and the Middle East.

Cyber attacks, airspace incursions, waterway incursions, threats to undersea cables that power our economy — these are constant, real, and we battle them daily.

3X