Applebaum: Putin's war has finally reached Moscow.
Muscovites have lost cell service, struggled to use ATMs and come under drone attacks.
They understand Russia isn't winning. Putin won't fall tomorrow, but it has shifted the mood of Russia's business and political elite. 1/
Applebaum: Russia's system will eventually change.
Nobody knows who will succeed Putin or how that person will be chosen. There is no Politburo or ruling party to pick the next leader. The successor will emerge from Russia's elite groups. 2/
Applebaum: The frontline in Ukraine has stalled.
It has become a transparent zone where drones can see every person, tank and vehicle. Large offensives have become difficult, if not impossible. 3X
Stubb: 35,000 Russian soldiers killed per month won't end this war. Economic strain won't end it either.
What ends it: the Russian population turning against it. Drones hit St. Petersburg and Moscow. Kids lose their summers in Crimea. Gas lines. Internet shutdowns.
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Stubb: Ukraine's long-range strikes took down 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
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Stubb: Ukraine needs more Patriots — over 100 civilian buildings hit just the other night, civilians dying.
Europeans and Americans need to work on this together.
Europe is preparing for the once-unthinkable — defending the continent against Russia with little or no US help.
NATO's plans from a year ago assumed the US would carry nearly 40% of the warfighting burden. This share now almost certain to shrink after year of lost trust in Trump, — FT. 1/
The shift is driven by a string of shocks.
Trump's threat to take Greenland by force, cancelled US troop deployments, a national security strategy hostile to Europe, and recriminations over the lack of European support for his war in Iran. 2/
Replacing US assets — intelligence, air defence, refuelling, reconnaissance — needs faster spending. Germany hits 3.5% of GDP by 2029, but France and the UK are off track at ~2.5% and 2.7%, and even Berlin lacks a long-term funding plan. 3/