Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 11
Russia sent 3 submarines to map and probe Britain's undersea cables and pipelines.

Two were secret Gugi seabed-warfare vessels, built to sabotage infrastructure that carries the country's data, gas, and electricity — Tom Sharpe, The Telegraph. 1/ Image
One Akula-class nuclear attack boat. Two specialist subs from Gugi — Russia's classified Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research, separate from the regular navy.

They operated north of the UK for over a month. Mission: map critical underwater infrastructure for potential sabotage. 2/
Oct 2023: Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia — cut, supplies down for weeks. Nov 2024: two Baltic telecom cables severed. Christmas 2024: Estlink-2 power cable and 4 data lines offline.

Russia probes European seabed infrastructure year after year. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 10
Europe’s defense is shifting from Brussels to a Germany-Poland core, with France and the UK supplying nuclear and expeditionary support.

As the US signals Europe must carry primary responsibility by 2027, while Russia could be ready to attack NATO within 5 years, FA. 1/ Image
Germany becomes the backbone of European defense.

Berlin plans $750B in military spending over 4 years, now holds the world’s 4th-largest defense budget, and will set standards as US influence over European security declines. 2/
Poland becomes the frontline force.

Warsaw spends 4.5% of GDP on defense, rapidly buying artillery, armor, and air defense to slow any Russian advance, prioritizing speed and domestic production over European suppliers. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 10
Ukraine’s top negotiator says a deal with Russia may come soon.

Kyrylo Budanov: “They all understand the war needs to end. I don’t think it will be long.” He says talks are moving toward a settlement despite limited visible progress, Bloomberg. 1/ Image
Budanov, ex-head of military intelligence, leads Ukraine’s negotiating team.

He oversees talks with the US and Russia and manages prisoner exchanges that have already returned hundreds of Ukrainians from captivity. 2/
Budanov says positions are still "maximalist" but adds that both sides now understand the limits of what is acceptable — calling that “enormous progress” in negotiations. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 10
Ukraine is winning from Trump's Iran war. The US air defenses are too costly ato counter cheap Iranian drones. Ukraine is the only country with 4 years of proven combat experience against. Gulf states now line up to buy Ukrainian weapons — Christian Caryl in FP. 1/ Image
On March 17, Zelenskyy addressed British Parliament and pitched Ukraine as a 21st-century arsenal of democracy. Days later he signed military cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, and launched trade talks with four more countries. 2/
Gulf states hit the limits of their US-supplied air defenses — too costly, too complex, already running low on munitions. Ukraine offers battle-tested drone defense built on 4 years of fighting Iranian Shaheds. Cheaper, faster, proven in combat. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 10
Bolton: Marco Rubio should lead the US delegation. That is his job.

Sending the vice president to meet some unknown Iranian raises the stakes unnecessarily, and you do not let your adversary pick who you send to negotiate. 1/
Bolton: Netanyahu says the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon and that is exactly what Trump and Vance agreed to.

It is Iran and Pakistan saying Lebanon should be covered. This is not Israel threatening the ceasefire. It is a disagreement over what was actually agreed. 2/
Bolton: Iran may not even show up. They think time is on their side, and they think Trump backed down with the ceasefire.

It is entirely possible they will not appear at all, because they are inclined to press what they see as their advantage. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 10
Applebaum: Orban plays the role of Russia’s puppet in Europe. He blocks EU money for Ukraine, blocks sanctions on Russia and ties his fortunes to Moscow.

Yet JD Vance went to Hungary to present him as the champion of “Western civilization.” 1/
Applebaum: The war in Ukraine is about whether Ukraine gets to exist as a nation. Russia has never given up its war aim, which remains the conquest or control of all Ukraine.

To call this haggling over a few square kilometers is an affront and an outrage. 2/
Applebaum: Trump insulted Europe, sneered at its security needs, did not tell allies what he was doing in Iran, then complained NATO was not there for him.

Europeans are not going to leap to the defense of an unpopular president fighting an unpopular war. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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