Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 8
China built a system where the world’s second-largest economy runs through markets, but political power still flows through one man.

Xi Jinping made sure nobody inside the Communist Party can become a true No. 2, Deng Yuwen for Foreign Policy. 1/ Image
Many outsiders now see Cai Qi as China’s de facto second-most powerful man because he controls Xi’s schedule, documents, meetings, information flow, and security.

But proximity to Xi is not the same as independent power. 2/
Cai acts more like a “grand steward of the inner court” than a successor or rival.

He executes Xi’s will, transmits orders, supervises implementation — but shows no sign of setting policy himself. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 8
Russia planned to use Iran to kill Americans.

The plan involved training 10,000 students from Iran, Tajikistan and Syria to operate drones that would sink American landing ships and destroy personnel — The Economist. 1/ Image
A ten-page GRU proposal prepared for the Iranian side contained three elements: 5,000 short-range fiber-optic drones that cannot be jammed, an unspecified number of long-range drones with Starlink terminals, and operator training. 2/
Why fiber-optic drones are more dangerous than regular ones. A radio signal can be jammed. Fiber-optic cannot. The operator controls the drone through a thin wire that unspools behind it. The drone emits no radio signals that could help the enemy locate the operator. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 7
Blumenthal: Iran has a lot of cards. Americans are paying much higher prices for gasoline, food and everything dependent on petrochemicals and plastics.

You can't count on war being quick and easy or base it on bombing alone. The costs of this war have yet to be fully felt. 1/
Blumenthal: A nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. The President made a fundamental miscalculation that bombing alone would accomplish his objectives.

Those objectives have been shifting and contradictory. None has been achieved. 2/
Blumenthal: Iran is weakened economically, but it is in control of the strait. Where Trump is now headed seems very much the JCPOA 2.0.

It could have been the result of negotiations, not a war based on a fundamental miscalculation. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 7
Russian GRU opened its own Hogwarts — where students learn to hack servers, write viruses, produce disinformation videos and run propaganda campaigns.

The Insider reveals how Russia’s military intelligence trains its hackers. 1/ Image
Department 4 is a secret faculty inside Bauman University in Moscow — 30,000 students, reputation of Russia’s MIT. The faculty’s name is deliberately meaningless: “Special Training.” 2/
It produces officers, hackers and saboteurs for the GRU. In 2024, 1,563 reservists and 429 prospective contract officers studied there across 14 military specializations. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 7
Zelenskyy: Hungary returned $82m in Ukrainian cash and gold seized from Oschadbank.

Ukraine brought the staff home earlier, now the money and valuables also returned in full.

1/ Image
The shipment included:

- $40m cash
- €35m cash
- 9 kg of bank gold

Oschadbank transported the assets from Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank to Ukraine when Hungarian security services stopped the convoy on March 6 in Budapest. 2/
Hungary detained Ukrainian cash collectors for 24+ hours, confiscated the money, and later passed a law allowing seizure of foreign cash shipments.

Orbán claimed, without evidence, the money could fund his political opponents. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 7
Russia spent 20 years attacking the “rules-based order.” Now Trump is dismantling it faster than Putin ever could.

This may hurt Moscow more than help it: Trump ignores Russia as an equal, weakens the UN[Russia holds veto] and could target allies like Cuba next, Notte for FA. 1/ Image
Putin wanted Russia free from rules while the US stayed constrained by them.

That strategy worked only while Washington still followed the old system. 2/
Russia mocked the UN, NATO, and “Western rules,” but still used the UN Security Council veto to project power and block Western moves.

Trump now weakens the same institutions Russia relied on. 3/
Read 11 tweets

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