Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 9
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Vandier: Patriot production is limited — the US can't supply the Gulf, Pacific, and Europe at once.

We need more from all sources. Ukrainians are already building their own ABM system. 1/
Vandier: NATO acquires massive deep precision strike ammunition. Expensive weapons hit hardened targets.

Cheap mass-produced ammo saturates the front. Any massive troop gathering sits under a strike umbrella. That's deterrence by denial.

2/
Vandier: Aegis Ashore is efficient against specific ballistic missiles. Turkey, Italy, France, MBDA all ramp up ABM programs.

Ballistic missiles are expensive — numbers favor us. Israel proves the system works. I'm confident we can fight this battle.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 9
Zaluzhnyi: Do not assume Russia has lost the war.

Russia has not achieved its original political objectives. But it still fights, occupies substantial Ukrainian territory, and shows no intention of accepting terms that would mean defeat, — for Telegraph. 1/ Image
Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine cannot yet claim outright victory either.

Kyiv has stopped Russia’s main goals and damaged its economy and military. But Ukraine still depends heavily on Western money, weapons, technology, and air defense. 2/
Zaluzhnyi: This is no longer a war of swift manoeuvres. It is a war of attrition.

Tactical gains now come at enormous cost. Positions can be taken, but holding them, reinforcing them, and evacuating the wounded is harder under constant drone surveillance. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Jul 9
A Russian ex-convict spent a decade in Ukraine under a fake identity, built weapons for the front, and married three women who never knew his real name.

Now Interpol wants him, and Ukraine may hand him over. His real name is Ruslan Puptaev, Babel. 1/ Image
Born 1987 in Kyrgyzstan, raised in Russia’s Ulyanovsk region. Convicted twice — theft at 16, assault at 19.

Russian courts gave him 9 years. 2/
In prison he converted to Islam. Chechen and Dagestani inmates told him about Russian war crimes in their countries.

That’s when he decided to leave Russia. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Jul 9
For the first time since the 2022 mobilisation, ordinary Russians are scared. Petrol is rationed and Ukrainian drones hit refineries far from the front.

55% now say people around them feel anxious, up from 40% a year ago. The war has reached everyone — The Economist. 1/ Image
Drone attacks once hit only cities like Kursk and Belgorod. On July 6th Ukrainian drones struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, 2,500 km from the front.

The southbound Moscow trains that once carried families to the sea now run spookily empty, crowded with uniforms. 2/
Petrol is rationed across the country. Drivers queue two or three hours for a daily cap of 20 or 30 litres, and many stations have run dry.

Crimea and Novorossiysk banned retail petrol sales. Only officials, public services and fuel-connected businessmen may fill up. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 9
Stubb: Russia won't end this war from economic pain or battlefield losses — 1 dead Ukrainian to 8 Russians.

What changes it: Russian population turning against the war. Oil strikes, cancelled Crimea summer camps, internet shutdowns. Pressure forces ceasefire and negotiations. 1/
Stubb: US foreign policy is transactional right now — they'd say so themselves.

They sanctioned Rosneft earlier, hitting Russia hard. Now they're reversing that decision.

2/
Stubb: Worst case is a test of Article 5 — quite far away. NATO defends 1 billion people, never been attacked except on 9/11.

But when the war ends in Ukraine, threat level rises. We need European capabilities and American presence.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 9
Volker, ex US-NATO Amb.: Zelenskyy has figured out how to deal with Trump.

By making clear that Ukraine wants a ceasefire and wants to end the war, he puts the spotlight on Putin, who doesn't. That gives Trump the best chance to pressure Russia. 1/
Volker: Europe needs Ukraine inside NATO. Russia is a threat to all of Europe.

Ukraine is already one of Europe's most capable countries in defending Europe, fighting Russia and producing the defence technology, industry and know-how everybody will need. 2/
Volker: Trump has realised Russia is weaker than he thought.

Russia can't defend its own airspace, is losing oil refining and export capacity, black smoke is rising over Moscow, while Ukraine is doing pretty well. Putin's argument is becoming less convincing. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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