Stubb: 35,000 Russian soldiers killed per month won't end this war. Economic strain won't end it either.
What ends it: the Russian population turning against it. Drones hit St. Petersburg and Moscow. Kids lose their summers in Crimea. Gas lines. Internet shutdowns.
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Stubb: Ukraine's long-range strikes took down 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
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Stubb: Ukraine needs more Patriots — over 100 civilian buildings hit just the other night, civilians dying.
Europeans and Americans need to work on this together.
Europe is preparing for the once-unthinkable — defending the continent against Russia with little or no US help.
NATO's plans from a year ago assumed the US would carry nearly 40% of the warfighting burden. This share now almost certain to shrink after year of lost trust in Trump, — FT. 1/
The shift is driven by a string of shocks.
Trump's threat to take Greenland by force, cancelled US troop deployments, a national security strategy hostile to Europe, and recriminations over the lack of European support for his war in Iran. 2/
Replacing US assets — intelligence, air defence, refuelling, reconnaissance — needs faster spending. Germany hits 3.5% of GDP by 2029, but France and the UK are off track at ~2.5% and 2.7%, and even Berlin lacks a long-term funding plan. 3/
EU’s 21st sanctions package could hit 90 more Russian banks, pushing banned lenders past 100 — over half of Russia’s internationally connected financial institutions.
A confidential European report warns of an explosive banking crisis, United24. 1/
Russia’s Economy Ministry cut GDP growth forecasts: 2026 to 0.4% from 1.3%, and 2027 to 1.4% from 2.8%.
The report says 10% of corporate loans look questionable; in 2025, bad retail loans at several large banks hit 15%. 2/
More than 500,000 Russians declared bankruptcy, up nearly one-third from the previous year.
State-sponsored programs pushed over 13mn Russians to hold at least 3 loans at once. Cash outside banks rose over 17% YoY to more than $243bn. 3/