Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 4
Macron: The Russian war against Ukraine revealed our over-dependence on Russian gas.

We are experiencing the cost of our over-dependence on the US in defense and security, and will probably experience the cost of our over-dependence vis-à-vis China.

1/
Macron: You cannot have sustainable strategic autonomy on defense if you are 100% dependent on other countries for semiconductors or food.

We experienced the cost of over-dependence in past years, including dependence on China.

2/
Macron: Democracy, rule of law, free trade, and climate through innovation create real links among allies. Our predictability on this agenda is a big advantage.

When I look at the Gulf, Asian countries, Latin America or Africa — they just want predictable partners

3X
Read 5 tweets
May 4
Kasparov: In Russia, tsars and dictators are forgiven everything except a bad war. If the war goes well, nobody cares how many die.

But when the ruler cannot win, discontent begins. That is the law of Russian history, and we are seeing it again now. 1/
Kasparov: There is no remorse in Russia for starting this war. The complaint is only that it cannot be won.

Ukraine is not striking homes. It is striking military, oil, and arms targets. Even that was enough to make Russians feel abandoned, exposed, and afraid. 2/
Kasparov: The key question is not what society thinks, but what Putin’s oil-and-gas beneficiaries think.

Strikes on Tuapse and Perm are not just “arrivals” to them. They are direct hits on cash flow, rents, and the business interests that hold the regime together. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 4
Zelenskyy: This summer, Putin will choose — escalate or move to talks.

We must increase pressure now to force him toward diplomacy.

1/
Zelenskyy: The Iran war is unresolved and risks long-term instability, higher energy prices, and political shifts.

We need real energy coordination, prepare for winter, and secure the Strait of Hormuz.

2/
Zelenskyy: Russia may hold its May 9 parade without military equipment — for the first time in years.

It suggests shortages and fear of drones over Moscow. A signal of weakness, not strength.

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 3
Applebaum: Of course Orban was authoritarian. The fact that he gave up power peacefully proves nothing by itself.

What matters is what it took to beat him: 16 years in power, panic before the vote, and a campaign that felt to Hungarians like regime change. 1/
Applebaum: To defeat Orban, Peter Magyar had to endure bugging, sex-tape leaks, grotesque smears, and an 18-month grassroots campaign.

No democratic leader should have to go through that. That is what unwinding authoritarian rule looked like. 2/
Applebaum: There is a very narrow window to move fast after authoritarianism. In Poland, taking back state media quickly worked.

Moving slowly on the courts left a mess. That is one of the clearest lessons for Hungary now. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 3
Applebaum: Trump clearly did not expect the Iran war to last this long. He seems to have imagined it would be easy.

If people in the room told him otherwise, he ignored them. He knows very little about Iran and even seemed surprised by Hormuz and Iranian strikes. 1/
Applebaum: People around the world now read news from Washington by first asking whether it is real.

Trump helped create that post-reality world by nurturing conspiracy theories and undermining trust in media. That is a classic authoritarian tactic. 2/
Applebaum: This is a war Trump does not want to think about.

He keeps looking for somebody else to blame and even decided to blame Europeans, who did not start the war, were not consulted about it, and have very little ability to end it. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 3
The US, EU, Turkey and China all now compete with Russia for control over the Caucasus.

Armenia and Azerbaijan just ended a decades-long war, and that peace opened new energy and trade routes through the narrow strip linking Europe and Asia. — Bloomberg.

1/ Image
The US secured exclusive rights to develop the TRIPP corridor — a rail and road route across Armenia's south connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan.

The agreement extends to oil and gas pipelines and fiber optic networks for 99 years.

2/
The EU plans to strike a connectivity partnership with Armenia — a potential funding package of up to €2.5 billion.

The first-ever EU-Armenia summit takes place Tuesday. Armenia applied for EU membership last year.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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