Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 23
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: It is now easier and cheaper to reach a person or object deep in the rear than to move the front line by 20 meters.

New weapons shift war from destroying military potential to destroying the state itself. 1/
Zaluzhnyi: Cheap, mass weapons with no reliable physical protection have changed war.

They allow any state — or even organization — to use new force against any opponent. The line between front and rear has almost disappeared. 2/
Zaluzhnyi: In an existential war, survival itself means victory. For Russia, stopping without victory threatens the existence of its state system.

That is why this has become a war of attrition where endurance decides everything. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 23
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine can no longer be part of any gray zone.

Our experience shows that if you agree to become a buffer zone, you should wait for war. It is already moving toward you — first hidden, then openly. 1/
Zaluzhnyi: In a war where the price is the life of an entire nation, compromise may simply stop existing.

You cannot be a little killed or half alive — and you cannot accept conditions that mean helping finish off your own state. 2/
Zaluzhnyi: NATO may have lost the ability to guarantee security to its members.

Because of technical unreadiness for modern war and the political inability of democratic institutions to make unpopular decisions when force must be used. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 22
Bolton: The only way to deal with Iran on oil and Hormuz is for the U.S. and Gulf Arabs to force the Strait open.

That is how you restore deterrence against Tehran turning access on and off like a light switch. 1/
Bolton: The six-week ceasefire benefited only Iran.

It let the regime get back up, dig out arsenals and storage sites, and reportedly restart drone production, maybe ballistic missiles too. That shows the IRGC’s real mission is regime survival. 2/
Bolton: If the U.S. declares the operation over and lets the regime recover, Iran will go back to drones, ballistic missiles, the nuclear program, terrorism and repression.

In five years, it would be a tragedy to see this was all for nothing. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 22
Bolton: Ukrainian strikes inside Russia undercut Kremlin propaganda.

They show ordinary Russians the war is not going well — not only by causing real military damage, but by making the reality of the war visible on Russian territory. 1/
Bolton: Russia expected significant territorial gains this spring, and that has not happened.

If anything, Russia has lost territory in Ukraine. By August or September, Putin may need another plan because the current strategy is not working. 2/
Bolton: Putin would like to keep U.S. attention focused on Iran or China because that buys him more time to decide what to do next in Ukraine.

Moscow may think Trump is so diverted by Iran that Ukraine will not catch his attention. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 22
Kasparov: Russians are not angry because Russia committed a crime against Ukraine. They are angry because Putin cannot win.

They do not criticize him for killing Ukrainians — they criticize him for killing too few and too slowly. 1/
Kasparov: Russian history forgives tsars and dictators for war, repression and violence as long as the state looks strong.

But a war that starts and is not won always leads to shocks. Eventually comes the phrase: the tsar is not real. 2/
Kasparov: Putin will not use nuclear weapons without China’s permission — and he will not get it.

Beijing does not want nukes becoming a geopolitical tool, because then Taiwan, Japan and South Korea could go nuclear too. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 22
Kasparov: Ukraine hits targets tied to Russia’s war machine, not civilians. Russia hunts civilians to terrorize and break morale.

Ukraine hits military logistics. These are two fundamentally different concepts of war — and now it happens almost every night. 1/
Kasparov: The strikes on Moscow have huge psychological meaning. War has returned to the place where it started.

Putin kept Moscow calm for four years while war became profitable business; now that illusion is breaking — and politically dangerous. 2/
Kasparov: Ukraine objectively leads Russia in modern weapons.

Its drones are more effective, its anti-drone defense is cheaper, and effective Ukrainian ballistic missiles are only a matter of time — probably not a distant one. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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