Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 6
Petraeus: The single most catastrophic imaginable event would be conflict between the U.S. and China.

America is spinning more plates than at any time since the Cold War, but the China plate is bigger than all the others combined. It cannot even wobble. 1/
Petraeus: Xi’s goal is Taiwan, reunification is his last bucket-list item. The task is to make sure that every morning in Beijing, when Xi looks at Taiwan, he concludes: not today.

That is the most important mission of the U.S. military. 2/
Petraeus: Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific rests on two things: China’s assessment of U.S. and allied capabilities, and America’s willingness to use them.

The U.S. must transform faster by learning from Ukraine and the Gulf. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 6
Petraeus: The U.S. is in a strategic cul-de-sac with Iran. Any route out has downsides.

Iran has been badly weakened militarily, but it still has drones, missiles, fast boats and the ability to create serious problems in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. 1/
Petraeus: The challenge is restoring freedom of navigation through Hormuz without giving Iran authority to charge tolls or navigation fees.

While still dealing with enriched uranium, sanctions, proxies and the future of Iran’s nuclear program. 2/
Petraeus: Tehran appears to believe Trump has less staying power than Iran does.

Iran does not face midterms, an affordability agenda or fear of losing the House. Trump needs a deal, and the regime seems to understand that leverage. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 6
Petraeus: Ukraine now has an advantage over Russia on the front lines.

Being outnumbered 5 to 1 and heavily outgunned matters less when Ukrainians are inflicting over 90% of Russian casualties with unmanned systems. 1/
Petraeus: The front lines are no longer really lines. The “kill zone” now extends roughly 35 km on either side.

Trenches and rural fighting positions are exposed because if there is a way to shoot out, a drone can fly in. 2/
Petraeus: Ukraine is inflicting around 35,000 killed and seriously wounded Russians per month, just below what Russia can recruit in the same period.

That is a major achievement, and Ukraine is now exercising more initiative on the front. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 6
Kasparov: A temporary ceasefire with Putin could make things worse. His army will not go home; it will go elsewhere.

Europe knows this, yet some still look for compromise while Poland, the Baltics and Finland are already preparing for war. 1/
Kasparov: Putin will not cut military spending. He will squeeze Russian businesses, oligarchs and the population harder.

He may still have resources for a year or two, but every strike on oil infrastructure hits someone’s business interest. 2/
Kasparov: In Putin’s Russia, even a state-owned enterprise has a beneficiary.

Every refinery, military plant or logistics hub Ukraine hits is not just a blow to the Russian state, it is a blow to someone inside the elite. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 6
Kasparov: This war has been a war of miracles from the beginning. On February 24, 2022, how many people expected Ukraine to survive at all?

Now we are in the fifth year, and Putin has failed to achieve his objectives one after another. 1/
Kasparov: Putin may no longer be able to continue this war on the basis of economy, production and numbers, but he cannot end it either.

If he ends the war without a meaningful result he can sell to Russia, he could be politically cooked. 2/
Kasparov: Returning 1.5 million brutalized soldiers back into Russia is Putin’s nightmare.

The whole country has been turned into a giant war camp. War is now his legacy, and ending it would mean admitting that legacy has failed. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 6
Putin faces a succession crisis in Chechnya that could erupt into a new war inside Russia, draining troops and money he needs for Ukraine — Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy.

The region's ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, 49, is probably terminally ill, and his heir is his 18-year-old son. 1/ Image
Putin built his presidency by crushing Chechen rebels in the late 1990s, then made a deal with Akhmad Kadyrov. Kadyrov suppressed the insurgency and accepted Moscow's rule, and in return ran Chechnya as he pleased.

A bomb killed Akhmad in 2004. Power passed to his son Ramzan. 2/
That autonomy runs on Russian cash. Moscow transfers $3.8 billion to Chechnya every year, about 92 percent of the republic's entire budget.

Kadyrov treats the money as a personal slush fund and spends it on whim, paying for a lavish lifestyle and a private security force. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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