Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Mar 28
For 471 days, Ukrainian sergeant Serhiy Tyshchenko, 46, lived in a mud bunker dug under an asphalt road near Bakhmut.

Russian dead bodies piled up near the entrance. “We climbed over them and threw soil on them to kill the stink” he says. “But it never goes”, The Independent. 1/ Image
Tyshchenko says he arrived at the position when Biden was US president.

By the time he left, a new US leader was in charge and was “trying to persuade Ukraine to give up the land” he had defended for 471 days. 2/
For 16 months, he stayed underground with so little air he felt close to suffocation.

He says hunger and extreme thirst were constant. More than once, the mud bunker collapsed around them. He got out alive and kept serving near the front. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 28
German Defence Chief, Breuer: In 2029, Russia could wage a major war against a NATO country.

It is building up its military to a strength nearly doubling from before the war against Ukraine.

I've never experienced a situation that dangerous like it is today. 1/
Breuer: Capabilities Europe needs to acquire in the next 3 to 4 years: drones, precision strike, and space capabilities. These are the most urgent needs.

We put them on a prioritized list, and we are working it. We are good on our way to do so. 2/
Breuer: We can’t think in boxes anymore. It’s not the European theater and the Middle East theater.

We have to connect the dots. Those theaters are intertwined. What happens in one theater has impact on the other. This has shaped our military strategy. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
Rubio and Kallas clashed at the G7 over Russia.

Kallas confronted Rubio, asking when the U.S. would get tougher on Moscow.

Rubio snapped back, saying the U.S. is already doing everything it can and telling her to “go ahead” if Europe thinks it can do better - Axios. 1/ Image
Kallas reminded Rubio he had said a year earlier the U.S. would ramp up pressure if Russia blocked peace efforts.

“A year has passed and Russia hasn’t moved. When will your patience run out?” 2/
Rubio responded that the U.S. is engaging both sides diplomatically and continues to arm Ukraine.

He said Washington is trying to end the war through talks, while still providing intelligence support to Kyiv. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 27
Ukraine is close to a cash crunch for the war. Funding to cover spending only until June — 2 months runway.

If money doesn’t arrive, Kyiv may face a choice it tried to avoid: the central bank financing the budget, Bloomberg. 1/ Image
In practice, a “cash crunch” means salaries for troops and public workers, basic state services and the war’s essentials, like air defense and drones, start getting underfunded.

Zelenskyy’s warning is no money — the army feels it. 2/
A pile-up of blocked or delayed external cash.

Hungary is vetoing a €90B EU loan and tying it to Ukraine resuming transit of Russian oil through Druzhba.

Kyiv calls it blackmail. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 27
Russia is trying to reduce contact with the outside world. It’s starting to look like a war-time Iran model: closed, controllable, security-first.

In early March, mobile internet in Moscow and St. Petersburg was blocked on FSB orders — almost 3 weeks, Economist. 1/ Image
In Moscow, the social contract is: no civic freedom, but daily life works via apps.

Then suddenly parents can’t message kids, parking can’t be paid, couriers can’t deliver, taxis revert to phone calls. 2/
Price tag: up to 1B rubles a day ($12M) for business losses.

People started buying radios, pagers, paper maps. A payphone shows up at Patriarch’s Ponds like conceptual art: “Guess what they’re burying.” 3/
Read 8 tweets
Mar 27
Cheap tech changed war. Weaker countries can now stop stronger ones. Ukraine proved it — drones slowed a much larger Russian army.

Michael Kimmage for NYT: Neither side won. Ukraine held on, but Russia’s economy endured — turning the war into a long, costly stalemate. 1/ Image
Ukraine held off a bigger force. Russia’s economy didn’t collapse. The result is a long, costly war with no clear winner.

This is a new model of war. High intensity. Long duration. No decisive outcome. The West gave Ukraine enough to survive — not enough to win. 2/
Sanctions didn’t break Russia. It kept selling oil and trading through China, India, and others. The economy weakened — but kept going. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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