Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 4
Kelin, Russia Ambassador to UK, on peace: We stand for diplomatic solution, but we don’t want on our border a puppet state created by Western governments, adversarial to us, where the Russian language is discriminated and the Russian Orthodox Church has been ousted. 1/
Q: Most of the world would say you guys started this fight.

Kelin: That is not true. It is said by those who do not want to learn history. Things started in 2014 after the illegal turnover of the legal government in Kyiv by people based on Nazi ideology. 2/
Kelin: European countries do not work for peace. UK, France, Germany stand for continuation of fighting. The defense industry continues to work. It is beneficial for their economies, so they don't need to explain that their political mistake put their economy in a poor state. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 4
Brussels is attempting the biggest financial strike on Russia since 2022: a plan to leverage €210bn in frozen Russian state assets and turn them into a long-term Ukraine war loan - using emergency powers that bypass Hungary’s veto, the FT reports. 1/ Image
The European Commission wants a “reparations loan” backed by up to €210bn of immobilised Russian central bank assets.

The first tranche(€90bn) would fund Ukraine’s budget for 2026–27. Kyiv would repay only after Russia pays reparations. 2/
To make this possible, Brussels invokes Article 122, an emergency clause allowing action without unanimity.

The goal is to prevent Russia-friendly states like Hungary or Slovakia from killing sanctions that currently must be renewed every 6 months. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 3
Europe is rearming at a speed not seen in decades.

SAFE, the new €150bn EU defence fund, already filled: 19 states applied, Poland alone asks for €43.7bn, writes The Economist.

1/ Image
SAFE + the National Escape Clause open a massive spending channel.

NEC lets states add 1.5% of GDP to defence over four years, unlocking roughly €650bn.

This is the spine of “Readiness 2030”.

2/
NATO’s European members now commit to 3.5% of GDP for core defence by 2035, plus another 1.5% for infrastructure.

Why this jump?

Because America moves out.

The Pentagon’s Global Posture Review shifts forces to Asia and asks Europe to pay for all weapons sent to Ukraine.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Dec 3
Alexander Stubb writes in FA the post-1945 order is collapsing. The world is shifting from rules to hard multipolar power.

Three blocs — West, East, South — now drive geopolitics. Middle powers like Brazil, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey decide outcomes.

1/ Image
He warns the West has 5–10 years to prove it can act without double standards, share real power and treat the global South as an equal partner. If it fails, the next order will run on deals, not rules and small states will get crushed.

2/
Stubb’s UN reform plan is:

- Add 5 permanent seats (2 Africa, 2 Asia, 1 Latin America)
- Abolish the veto
- Suspend any state that violates the UN Charter which would have suspended Russia after 24 Feb 2022.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 3
Germany spent decades preaching pacifism

Now it is buying tanks, building suicide drones, deploying troops abroad and committing €460 billion to rearmament

Isaac Stanley-Becker in The Atlantic shows how a nation built on “never again” is preparing for war again. 1/ Image
Lt. Gen. Freuding says the old U.S.-led order is “really cut off.”

During Trump’s freeze on Ukraine weapons, Germany received no warning. German officers now hunt for information through their embassy because their Pentagon contacts have gone silent. 2/
Berlin’s answer is the Zeitenwende — Germany’s declared “turning point.”

The government vows to build “the strongest army in Europe” and, for the first time since WWII, is permanently stationing 5,000 troops abroad — Panzerbrigade 45 in Lithuania by 2027. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 3
Rutte: If it takes too long for Russia to compromise in the peace talks, we’ll keep the weapon flow to Ukraine going, thanks to the U.S., Europe, and Canada.

Sanctions are also biting Russia. Together, they will pressure Putin and change his calculus. 1/
Rutte: I'm glad the U.S. president broke the deadlock with Putin and started the peace process.

Last night's talks were important, but I won’t comment on every step. We’re closely coordinating with the U.S. More steps are to come. 2/
Q: Yesterday, Putin threatened Europe with war again. What is your message for him?

Rutte: I'm not going to react to every thing Putin is saying. We've seen him in military clothes, dressed like a soldier at the front, but not [actually] at the front. It was quite far from the front. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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