Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 27
Former British Army Colonel Ingram: Russia wants Ukraine to capitulate, pause the war, restore foreign ties, rebuild its army and strike again.

It will come back for another slice of Ukraine, Georgia or elsewhere. Moscow plays for generations; the West plays by elections.

1/
Ingram: It is too early to say Putin’s inner circle is turning on him. Putin controls them.

If one speaks against him, he tends to have an “accident,” usually a ninth-floor window. Putin is oligarch-in-chief: he lets them keep money and corruption, or he takes them out.

2/
Ingram: After Putin’s staged reelection, he may claim a mandate, call this an existential war against NATO and order general mobilization.

Ukraine kills or badly wounds 30,000+ Russians a month; 39,000 in June. Russia cannot replace them fast enough.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 27
Kapustin, commander of Ukraine's Russian Volunteer Corps: What breaks a captured Russian soldier isn't our gear. It's that after four days drinking from puddles, we hand him water from our own hands.

That's when something cracks. 1/
Kapustin: Russian POWs from Vovchansk arrive with frostbitten feet, some missing toes.

Sent out for weeks without winter gear, they wrap their feet in foil thermal blankets, thinking it's waterproof. One captured 18-year-old lost several toes after being sent to fetch snow. 2/
Kapustin: Russian soldiers infiltrating near our lines dropped radios for phones rigged with Starlink, reporting coordinates by Telegram.

Once Starlink access was cut, they lost their only link to command. We took many of them prisoner, frostbitten and starving. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27
Who else but Ukraine can shut the Black Sea to Russia with naval and aerial drones? In 18 days in July, Ukraine hit 196 vessels

Russia’s Azov oil-product exports stopped. In Black Sea ports, exports fell nearly in half to 1 million tons. Tanker calls dropped from 55 to 27, EP.1/ Image
Together with strikes on Russian refineries, these attacks stopped exports of key oil products.

Russia no longer exports gasoline. Jet fuel exports stopped. Diesel shipments fell to 4% of the level before Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, oil sites, and logistics.

2/
Ukrainian drones hit rudders, propellers, and bridges.

The ship loses movement, drifts, waits for a tugboat, and goes into repairs. One repair can cost $2-5 million.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 27
Fire Point co-founder Shtilierman: Our mega-plan is to reach three ballistic missiles a day by the end of the year.

Roughly 90 missiles a month, like Russia.

1/
Shtilierman: A Ukrainian drone flies to Moscow, and Russia fires three Pantsirs at it. None hit. Three Pantsirs against one drone.

Then they tried to shoot down Morok and missed, making that famous “roof” over Moscow. Do not underestimate Russia, but do not overestimate it either.

2/
Shtilierman: Russia adapted Iskander to burn more Patriots. A faster missile will be harder to shoot down.

Russia has no hit-to-kill interceptor: make the warhead shell thicker, and even if the missile breaks, the warhead keeps flying, falls and detonates.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 27
Michael Clarke: Syrskyi was trained in the Soviet military and tends to think in a Soviet way.

But he saved Kyiv in 2022, planned the successful Kharkiv counteroffensive and later designed Ukraine’s operation in Kursk. 1/
Clarke: At the front, Syrskyi sometimes is called a butcher. People accuse him of throwing troops into assaults like Soviet and Russian generals.

That criticism can be unfair. Sometimes commanders must hold ground despite knowing an operation will cost many lives. 2/
Clarke: Syrskyi was less popular among troops than Zaluzhnyi.

Zelenskyy pushed Zaluzhnyi to advance more aggressively, while Zaluzhnyi argued that it would cost too many soldiers. Zelenskyy thought he was too soft and too sentimental about his men. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 27
Hodges: Ukraine has a real chance to recover all of Crimea. Its long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas damage Russia’s ability to sustain the war and wreck its economy.

Russia controls ships under the Kerch Bridge because it fears Ukraine could ram or blow it up.

1/
Hodges: To liberate Crimea, Ukraine has to isolate it. Ukraine is destroying bridges, fuel ships, ferries and mainland logistics from Azov to northern Crimea.

Then Ukraine makes Crimea untenable by hitting airfields, naval sites, air defenses, radar and logistics.

2/
Hodges: Crimea back under Ukraine’s control would hit Putin politically, militarily and psychologically.

Ukraine’s job is not to keep Putin in power. It is to recover its land and stop Russia from threatening the Black Sea and Azov Sea.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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