Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.
Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/
Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.
Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/
Applebaum: Putin and the regime have become paranoid about Ukraine’s ability to hit Moscow and maybe even target leaders.
That is why the internet keeps going down in Moscow and other cities and why, around the May 9 parade, it is almost completely shut. 3/
Former Russian PM Kasyanov: There is no real threat to Putin's life from inner circle, but Putin is increasing his security because problems are growing.
Attitudes toward the war and Putin’s regime are changing. 62% of Russians want to stop the war and move to negotiations.
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Kasyanov: Victory Day has always been a major date for Putin, and he has used it a lot. The parade sends a strong signal to the world.
I think we may hear him speak about ending the war soon, but only on his own terms. Still, the situation is moving and changing.
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Kasyanov: Ukraine has an advantage in drone attacks at all ranges. But the key now is transatlantic unity: Europe sees an aggressor and a victim.
Trump’s administration sees two guilty sides. Why should Ukraine make concessions?
Putin: Russian soldiers are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And despite this, Russia’s heroes are moving forward.
The great feat of the victorious generation inspires our soldiers carrying out the special military operation today. 1/
Putin: No matter how military technology and methods of combat change, the main thing remains unchanged: people decide the fate of the country.
Russia’s success rests on moral strength, courage, valor, unity and the ability to endure any trial.
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Putin: Russia has a common goal. Every Russian makes a personal contribution to victory — both on the battlefield and in the rear. Russia’s cause is just.
Russians are together. Victory has always been and will always be Russia’s. Glory to the victorious people!
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Mobilization must change because war itself changed.
Drones and robotic systems reshaped the battlefield, making old mass-army models obsolete. For the first time in history, robots entered war at scale.
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Zaluzhnyi: Russia tried to break the battlefield deadlock with new technology and tactics, but the result stayed the same: old-style offensives in a machine war only turn soldiers into expendable manpower that constantly needs replacement.
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Zaluzhnyi: After losing battlefield initiative, Ukraine had to react to Russia’s moves across the front, often at high cost.
Russia built a strategy around grinding down Ukrainian forces through massive losses, betting casualties would break Ukrainian society first.
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Xi believes time will deliver Taiwan. Each year, Beijing builds economic, military, and diplomatic leverage that he expects to make unification unavoidable.
The first major test comes in 2028 — Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie Glaser, Foreign Affairs. 1/
Beijing's confidence comes from 2025. It hit Trump's tariffs with rare-earth export curbs and watched Washington back down.
DeepSeek showed China can match US AI models at a fraction of the cost. 2/
Inside Taiwan, the KMT-TPP majority is blocking a $40B special defense budget.
They want a smaller arms package from the US instead. That cooperation keeps a China-friendly 2028 ticket alive. 3/