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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 4

Kellogg: The Russians and the Chinese are kind of saying we can't match up. You're on your own with Iran.

The real country that's hurt by this is China, because 20% of their oil has been coming from Iran. 1/

Kellogg: You're going to have a hard time finding anybody that wants to take charge in Iran now because they know it's their demise if they do so.

We've systematically taken their leadership apart. 3/

Kellogg: It's going to reach a point where there's going to be nobody in charge, which is good. The secular state is gone.

The president was so right about the Iranian people taking charge of their government. When that happens, you're going to see a changed Mideast. 4/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 4

Former U.S. Secretary of State Blinken: One possible off-ramp from the war with Iran is simply declaring victory.

Saying the ayatollah is gone and Iran’s nuclear and missile programs have been degraded — and leaving the future of the regime to the Iranian people.

1/

Blinken: Looking at the war with Iran, two factors will determine where this goes and how it ends — markets and munitions.

2/

Blinken: Watch the markets — oil, stocks, and bonds. President Trump is very attentive to them. If stocks and bonds fall, or oil rises sharply and stays there, that could become a limiting factor.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 4

J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: Since World War II, wars usually move markets but rarely have long-term effects.

The exception was 1973, when oil prices tripled. If the Iran war is short and oil hits $80–$100, it likely won’t matter much — but if it drags on, all bets are off.

1/

Jamie Dimon: The most important thing in the world right now is geopolitics.

The free Western democratic world is under pressure — from Russia in Ukraine, Iran in the Middle East, and to some extent China, which wants to divide and weaken the West economically and militarily.
2/

Jamie Dimon: War with Iran can create an opportunity for a longer and more just peace in the Middle East, involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE and some path to Palestinian statehood.

Countries in the region want peace because strong economies and foreign investment depend on it.

3X

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 3

Kasparov: Trump is a bulldozer — he clears the rubble but can't build anything.

Obama could have acted in 2009. People were in the streets and elites were split.

Instead he chose cowardice. Iran got stronger and Putin entered the Middle East.

1/

Kasparov: The West has stopped worshipping the fetish of international law.

Putin and Khamenei destroyed it. They used international institutions to cover their crimes.

Now it's coming back at them. If there's no law, we find out who is stronger. And everyone knows the answer.

2/

Kasparov: Ukraine has profit from Iran.

Putin is weaker, and that alone matters.

Iran was helping Russia with drones. That help is now gone.

And finally — demand for Ukrainian drone defense technology will surge, in countries that actually have money to pay for it.

3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 3

Valerii Puzik spent 40 days in a dirt hole with no food, no water, no signal.

He serves on the Zaporizhzhia front. He calls it “infantry hell” and his second birthday. — Ukrainska Pravda 1/

Puzik: “We were five in the hole — three Ukrainians and two Colombians.”

When supplies ran out, they split one can and a 14-cm piece of ham with a tape measure. Millimeters per person. 2/

Puzik: “Hunger strips you bare. You stop playing roles.”

It peels off manners, status, fear — until only one thing remains: survive. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Mar 3

Rubio: The hardest hits on Iran are yet to come. The next phase will be even more punishing.

We have clear objectives and will act as long as it takes to achieve them. When this operation is over, the world will be a safer place.

1/

Rubio: In a year or so, Iran would cross a line of immunity — with so many missiles and drones no one could stop them. This operation had to happen.

Look at the damage they cause now, weakened. Imagine them a year from now.

2/

Rubio: The United States would not deliberately target a school.

Our focus is on missiles and drones — their production and launch sites — not civilian infrastructure. Iran, on the other hand, is hitting hotels, embassies, airports, and oil facilities.

3X