Volker: Zelenskyy has learned how to deal with Trump. This time [in Ankara] he was disciplined.
He didn't want to talk too much in public. He wanted their private meeting to have a positive tone. He joked a little.
That's the right way to handle things. 1/
Volker: Zelenskyy has an advantage over Russia in drones, counter-drones, electronic warfare, defense tech, innovation and logistics.
Many things that Putin is not able to do. Long-range strikes are hitting Russia's source of money: its oil and gas industry. 2/
Volker: Putin wants another shot at the winter.
He wants to keep fighting and try again to shut off Ukraine's electricity. Ukraine is in a stronger position than last winter, but Putin probably wants to try again. 3/
Ex-CIA officer Wiswesser: Under Putin, Russian intelligence can do no wrong without accountability.
Blow up a DHL plane in Lithuania, set a shopping center on fire in Warsaw or try to kill Rheinmetall's CEO in Germany. That makes it a formidable adversary. 1/
Wiswesser: Russian intelligence understands very little about how the United States works.
It projects its own corruption and political system onto the West. If Putin had understood the West, he should never have invaded Ukraine. 2X
Kuleba: Putin is living through his Stalin moment. When everything falls apart around you, you do not give in.
You tighten the screws and double down: nothing can break me. Putin is waiting for winter to crush Ukraine’s energy system and its people’s resilience.
1/
Kuleba: Ukraine asked to build Patriot missiles at home in December 2023. The West takes too long to make obvious decisions.
War is becoming more aerial, and Ukraine will never have enough Patriots to intercept all ballistic missiles.
2/
Kuleba: Trump’s first year hit Ukraine hard. No one expected an easy relationship, but no one imagined it would get this bad.
Things look better now, but no one can guarantee it will hold.
Applebaum: Russians say they have no fuel, can’t do their jobs, and don’t know what comes next. But ordinary Russians have little impact on the Kremlin.
Don’t view Russia through a democratic lens. Propaganda says Russia is winning; reality says Russians are worse off.
1/
Applebaum: Putin mentioned a town that doesn’t exist and described a settlement as surrounded, with no evidence.
Either he makes things up, or someone misinforms him about the battlefield. He may be delusional, or his circle feeds him what he wants to hear.
2/
Applebaum: Putin may try mobilization, but I think it would fail. Russians would resist joining the army as they learn that the front line is a death sentence.
That could drag out the war for months, but I don’t see Russia winning or turning the tide this year.
At a secret factory in southern Germany, Helsing SE mass-produces AI attack drones for Ukraine.
The HX-2 weighs 26 pounds, can cost as little as €17,500, needs barely a week of training and has been deployed by the thousands, NYT. 1/
Helsing is Europe’s most valuable AI defense start-up.
Founded in 2021, it set out to mass-produce cheap war machines as Western defense moves beyond multiyear contracts for tanks, jets and submarines toward cheaper, nimbler systems. 2/
The factory operates under tight secrecy.
Helsing’s name appears nowhere, other tenants do not know it exists, and the site can be dismantled and relocated within a day because the company fears sabotage or attack. 3/