Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 15
Russian troops surrendered to robots. Drones and ground bots took a Russian position without infantry and without losses on Ukraine’s side — Telegraph.

Zelenskyy: For the first time in the history of this war, an enemy position was taken exclusively by unmanned systems. 1/
Ground robots now carry out assault, evacuation, mine-clearing, logistics, supply runs and reconnaissance.

Zelenskyy: they completed 22,000+ missions in the last three months. Syrskyi says robotic systems handled 50% more tasks in March than in Feb. 2/
Ukraine now has 280+ companies building ground robots. Kyiv aims to produce 20,000+ this year, with 99% made in Ukraine.

Front-line models can operate up to 31 miles away, and many cost £7,500-£22,000. Some brigades already created dedicated UGV units. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 15
Hodges: Crimea is still the decisive terrain of the war. For Putin it is symbolic, because the whole war started with seizing it.

It also anchors Russia’s ports and its ability to project power across the Black Sea. 1/
Hodges: If Russia can no longer use Crimea’s ports, bridge, and ferries safely, the peninsula loses real value.

The Black Sea Fleet has already been pushed out of Sevastopol, and isolating Crimea further would strip Moscow of a key military asset. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine does not need a frontal assault on Crimea right now.

It should keep isolating it, keep hitting airfields and air defenses, and make the Kerch bridge unusable. Crimea is still on Zelenskyy, Syrskyi, and Budanov’s objective list. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 15
For decades, Germany blocked every attempt to build European defense without America. Merz reversed course after concluding Trump was ready to abandon Ukraine.

Germany leads a coalition planning to run NATO without the US. The project has a name: "European NATO" — WSJ. 1/ Image
Germany, France, the UK, Poland, the Nordics, and Canada are planning to fill US command roles, run air-and-missile defenses, and secure reinforcement corridors into Poland and the Baltics.

The planning runs through side meetings and dinners inside NATO. 2/
Pistorius, German Defense Minister: "NATO must become more European in order to remain trans-Atlantic."

The plans accelerated after Trump threatened to seize Greenland from NATO ally Denmark. The Iran war standoff gave them fresh urgency. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 14
NATO’s eastern flank is getting much harder for Russia. Europe fields roughly 8,000+ tanks across NATO members.

Russia has 3,460 active plus 2,100 in storage — but most are T-55s, T-62s, and Soviet-built T-72s. NATO is pulling ahead on quality, writes United24. 1/ Image
Turkey has the most tanks in Europe — 2,381. But Poland is becoming NATO’s most dangerous armored power. Because of what it is building. 2/
Poland today fields 180 South Korean K2 Black Panthers, 233 American Abrams, 202 Leopard 2s, and 251 older PT-91 and T-72s.

Total: 897 tanks. Not the biggest fleet. But the most modern mix on NATO’s eastern flank. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Apr 14
Fukuyama: Hungary’s election was an extraordinarily important victory for liberal democracy.

Orban built “illiberal democracy”: no guardrails, no rule of law, no constitutional checks. JD Vance went to help him, and that seems to have hurt Orban. 1/
Fukuyama: Peter Magyar and Tisza won a supermajority and can now reverse many of the constitutional changes Orban put in place to keep himself in power.

That is a real chance to stop the slide toward authoritarian government and populism. 2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 14
Sup. Com. of Sweden, Claesson: Russia is not 10ft tall. It’s their favorite tool to make us believe that they are. If Russia would make a true military assessment, they know they would lose [to NATO]. That leads to a hybrid warfare to exploit vulnerabilities in our societies. 1/
Claesson: With the means available to the Ukrainians, it is very compelling to see how they bring multi-domain situation awareness together, how they do targeting and make the command & control arrangements work throughout the whole structure. 2/
Claesson: One aspect of the Ukrainian success — they work incrementally, they try, they test, they take risks. With the back against the wall they must not be risk avert. It is important to learn from them and be less risk avert to apply those lessons. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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