Kellogg: Putin just wants power. The Soviets left Afghanistan after losing 18,000 soldiers. Putin has lost 1.2 to 1.4 million.
Americans would never accept that. But he keeps going because he thinks he can occupy all of Ukraine. He is not winning.
1/
Kellogg: Europe’s security will no longer be built only around Germany, France, and the UK.
It will shift east — through Finland, Sweden, Poland, Ukraine, and Romania. Ukraine will be the Sparta of Europe, with an army of 800,000. Nobody else has that.
2/
Kellogg: Putin is on the losing end. If he does not watch out, he may end up like Nicholas II, the last tsar.
Someone will get to him, and I think he is worried about that.
Ukrainian soldiers rinsed their mouths with water from a fire extinguisher and ate rations they took off the Russians they killed to survive in the encirclement.
Russians poisoned them with gas, thinking these were elite forces. Ukrainians held their position for 109 days.
1/
Anton, one of the Ukrainian soldiers: My neck, arms and back started burning. I jumped out with my rifle and saw a drone. I started shooting, tears streaming.
The grenade was self-made. Chlorine-based powder inside. It smells of acid, eats through everything.
2/
Anton: We filtered mud, we used water from fire extinguishers to rinse our mouths, but it tasted of ammonia. We couldn’t drink it because it’s acid.
We drank saline, and by radio, guys at other positions said they were drinking chlorhexidine.
Petraeus: No western country is aggressively pursuing what needs to be pursued. A major German defense CEO belittled what the Ukrainians have done with drones.
Europeans will spend more on defense, but buy legacy platforms. Vested interests in buying what we've always bought. 1/
Petraeus: A senior army leader said they're giving 500 drones to a tank brigade. That is not revolutionary change.
Revolutionary change is you actually do away with part of the tank brigade and create entire unmanned forces that can do what we see in Ukraine so impressively. 2/
Petraeus: People asked during Iran if we could take Kharg Island. Of course — 82nd Airborne, Special Ops, Marines. But could we protect that force?
We don't have adequate deployable counter-drone capabilities. A single drone hits a single ship and everything freezes in place. 3X
Petraeus: Ukraine is about to isolate Crimea. Gasoline so short they won't sell it to civilians. Tourists who came for beaches are trying to get home any way they can
Kerch Bridge rail no longer works. Ferries knocked out. Land bridges destroyed. Pontoon bridges now targeted 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine took down Russia's air defenses steadily. Russia pulls them to Moscow, vulnerabilities open everywhere else. Moscow refinery hit three nights running, out at least six months.
They're going after fuel storage, refineries, gas lines from Siberia to the west. 2/
Petraeus: Real prospect now that Putin might need a cessation of hostilities himself. Oil sanctions reimposed, national welfare fund running out of money.
Crimea isolated, front lines cut off, economy crushed, all of this could force Putin to recognize he should end this war. 3X
Hodges: Not the time to take the foot off the gas on Crimea. Pour it on.
The West should help isolate Crimea — knock out bridges, ferries, all ways in and out, make it unusable for Russian forces. Airfields, air defense systems, logistics sites — targeted relentlessly. 1/
Hodges: I was criticized for being too optimistic about Crimea. I was so sure the US and UK would provide what Ukraine needed.
I was wrong — we did not support Ukraine as we should. So here we are now. Ukraine without too much help from us is doing this on their own. 2/
Hodges: When you combine the strategic destruction of oil and gas infrastructure, Russia can't pay for this anymore, with the operational destruction of logistics, at some point Russia will seriously consider stopping.
They can't sustain it at this level deep into next year. 3X