Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 3
Germany spent decades preaching pacifism

Now it is buying tanks, building suicide drones, deploying troops abroad and committing €460 billion to rearmament

Isaac Stanley-Becker in The Atlantic shows how a nation built on “never again” is preparing for war again. 1/ Image
Lt. Gen. Freuding says the old U.S.-led order is “really cut off.”

During Trump’s freeze on Ukraine weapons, Germany received no warning. German officers now hunt for information through their embassy because their Pentagon contacts have gone silent. 2/
Berlin’s answer is the Zeitenwende — Germany’s declared “turning point.”

The government vows to build “the strongest army in Europe” and, for the first time since WWII, is permanently stationing 5,000 troops abroad — Panzerbrigade 45 in Lithuania by 2027. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 2
Russia enters new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil with serious economic cracks.

KSE Institute shows oil earnings in October fell to $13.1B, as Moscow sold barrels at $54, far below global prices.

1/ Image
Russia’s budget hole keeps widening.

January–October deficit hit 4.2T rubles and will likely break the revised 5.7T target in December’s spending surge.

The Kremlin now borrows at record speed: 4.5T rubles in domestric government bonds already, up 135% year-on-year.

2/
The liquid share of the National Welfare Fund shrank to 4.2T rubles, 31% of assets, compared to 75% before the full-scale invasion.

This leaves Putin with far less cash to plug the war budget.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 2
Andriy Yermak’s quit changed Ukraine’s peace team - The Telegraph.

Yermak led negotiations, rejected any territorial concessions.

Now figures like spy chief Budanov, who has already met US Secretary Driscoll and speaks of Trump’s “crucial role” in ending the war, will lead. 1/ Image
NABU raided Yermak’s home over a $100M energy graft scandal.

Hours later, he quit as head of the presidential administration. His exit ends years of dominance inside Zelenskyy’s circle.

2/
His fall is seen as a win for anti-corruption activists and may help Zelenskyy distance himself from scandals that angered Western donors.

Yermak clashed with the Maga camp, accusing trump’s aides of ties to Moscow. His removal may help rebuild ties with Washington.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 2
Putin: If Europe starts a war, then soon Moscow will have no one to negotiate with

Russia has no intention of going to war with Europe. But if Europe starts a war, Russia is ready right now.

[Russia is exhausted after three years of war in Ukraine and not ready to face NATO] 1/
Putin: Europe has removed itself from the Ukrainian settlement.

The Europeans have no peaceful agenda and are now hindering US efforts to resolve the situation.

They are living under the illusion of their original goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.

2/
Putin: Attacks on tankers in the Black Sea are piracy.

In response to the attacks on tankers, Russia will expand its strikes on Ukrainian ports and ships entering those ports.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Dec 2
Zelenskyy: The hardest issues on peace talks are three: territory, frozen Russian assets in Europe and security guarantees.

I can’t decide on EU-held funds, only discuss them with partners. We need strong guarantees from the U.S., Europe and others.

1/
Q: Some say you face a choice: a bad deal now or a worse one later after Russia’s offensive in Pokrovsk. What’s your response?

Zelenskyy: There are no easy decisions. I can make tough ones, but any deal must be fair, transparent and never made behind Ukraine’s back.

2/
Zelenskyy: Security guarantees are not an experiment, they decide whether our people live. We need clear terms and clear tools.

Russia started this war to erase us. We stopped them with our soldiers, our civilians and support from the U.S. and Europe. The bloodshed must end. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 2
37-year-old Mykola Zakhozhyi left home on his motorcycle to check Russian positions near his Kyiv suburb. He never returned.

Russian soldiers seized him in the woods, kicked his head until he blacked out and poured diesel on him, threatening to burn him and others – NYT. 1/ Image
Russian troops moved Mykola through camps and jails. Guards lined prisoners up and made them run a gauntlet of kicks and punches.

They slammed men into metal door frames and jumped on their backs as they lay on the ground. 2/
In Kursk, guards hit prisoners on the way to the showers and to the yard, shocked them with electric devices and beat them while they waited for interrogations.

Former detainees said this was standard routine. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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