Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jan 25
Zelenskyy: I hope the US will not reduce pressure on Russia over this war for the sake of diplomacy.

Likewise, Europe must be resolute and continue sanctions pressure on Russia. Russian tankers transporting oil through the Baltic Sea must be stopped completely. 1/
Zelenskyy: Russian propaganda must be blocked. Russian schemes to circumvent sanctions must be cut off.

These are the minimum foundations for peace to be genuinely achieved. 2/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine must be in the EU. We all understand this absolutely.

I am very glad that our partners Lithuania and Poland support Ukraine’s EU membership. One of Ukraine’s security guarantees is EU membership. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 25
Russia is proposing to split the output of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with Kyiv as part of ceasefire talks. The plant is under Russian occupation.

U.S. officials say Putin wants a diplomatic settlement, Ukraine calls the talks constructive — Politico. 1/ Image
The idea surfaced during the first face-to-face talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. since 2022.

U.S. officials say economics, postwar arrangements, and control over major assets were central to the discussions. More talks are set for next week. 2/
Zaporizhzhia NPP is Europe’s largest nuclear plant and a critical energy asset for Ukraine.

Moscow favors shared electricity output, while Kyiv rejects any deal that legitimizes Russian control over occupied infrastructure. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 25
Fiona Hill: Putin knows that Trump's word is empty. Putin is extraordinarily good at figuring people out, figuring out their vulnerabilities and weaknesses. Trump fits his category of the person he's used to dealing with. 1/
Hill: Putin's got strategic patience. He's actually quite predictable now. We've got 25 years of data points. We know his face. We also know that he bides his time. Prigozhin marched on Moscow, it fizzled out, and months later he meets his demise by falling from the skies. 2/
Hill: Trump sees no constraint apart from his own. Putin has whittled away all of the checks and balances, to be unchecked unconstrained. Trump wants to be that kind of leader, and that's what Putin's got on him. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 24
The EU and the US are offering Ukraine an $800B “prosperity” plan: long-term public funding plus private capital, fast-tracked EU membership, and US firms as anchor investors.

But the entire plan depends on a ceasefire and security guarantees that do not yet exist — Politico. 1/ Image
The proposal is a 10-year roadmap to 2040, with a 100-day launch phase.

It is meant to move Ukraine from emergency aid to self-sustaining growth and assumes security guarantees already exist. It is explicitly not a military plan. 2/
The EU, US, IMF, and World Bank aim to mobilize at least $500B in public and private capital.

The European Commission alone plans €100B in budget support after 2028, designed to unlock over €200B in total investment. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 24
Chrystia Freeland: For 4 years we’ve focused on Ukraine as the virtuous victim.

This will be the year we pivot to seeing Ukrainians as a strong ally: Europe’s military shield and arsenal who know modern war and how to build its weapons. 1/
Freeland on Ukraine-Russia talks: The ball is in Putin’s court.

The Ukrainians, the Americans, and the Europeans are all pretty much on the same page. That’s a remarkable outcome, given how rocky the path has been. 2/
Freeland: Ukraine is a huge economic opportunity. Companies are already investing, especially in defense tech.

One investor called defense tech “Ukraine’s oil”: what oil has been to the Gulf States, defense technology will be to Ukraine — now, and even more after the war. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jan 24
Hoffman on Russia's invitation to the Peace Board: Russia started the most destructive land war in Europe since WW2. They brought in ally Belarus, who would sabotage peace deals.

Russia’s targeting civilians with drones and missiles and has never shown any interest in peace. 1/
Hoffman: I respectfully disagree there's progress. Russia wants to delay US imposition of further sanctions crippling their wartime economy.

We have not seen any indication that Russia is interested in taking a step for peace forward. Ukraine is ready for peace. 2/
Hoffman on Greenland deal: Analysts will compare the agreement to 1951 treaty with Denmark.

There is investment opportunity, rare earth minerals, and strategic interest in Greenland. The question is whether the president had to go as far as he did. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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