Fiona Hill: Trump still does not really listen to experts.
In the Iran crisis, he is sending out people with little high-level negotiating experience while believing he knows better than everybody. His gut, not expertise, is what drives decisions. 1/
Hill: Tactically the US campaign has been successful. Strategically it is a blunder because Trump did not understand Iran.
He assumed a top-down system like Russia or China, but Iran is resilient, deeply embedded, and full of people fighting for their lives. 2/
Hill: Hormuz was not unpredictable. Prior leaders knew Iran would do something there.
Trump ignored that risk and has now created something even larger than the 2008 financial crisis. This is not just his own mess. It is a global catastrophe. 3/
A pastry chef from Bucha spends her days making cakes — and her nights shooting down Russian drones.
Lyudmyla Lysenko joined a volunteer air defense unit after returning to a destroyed city in April 2022. “Bucha looked like a zombie apocalypse,” — UkrPravda. 1/
By day she holds a mixer. By night — a machine gun.
She now commands a mobile fire group in the “Bucha Witches,” a unit created in 2024 to hunt Shahed drones over Kyiv region. 2/
Every shift starts at 8am.
They check weapons, count ammo, inspect vehicles. When the alarm sounds, they deploy fast, set up guns, track drones, and open fire. 3/
Trump’s Iran war is pumping billions into Russia’s war machine.
Russia earned €713M per day from fossil fuels in Mar and collected €7.4B in taxes — a 2-year high as oil prices surged >50% after the war began, Foreign Affairs. 1/
Sanctions pressure weakened at the same time.
The US eased restrictions on Russian energy exports for 2 months to stabilize markets, allowing Moscow to sell more oil at higher prices with smaller discounts. 2/
Volumes rose, but revenues surged faster.
Oil exports increased ~16%, while seaborne crude revenues jumped ~115% in Mar, as global prices climbed and Urals discounts narrowed. 3/
Ukrainian combat veterans are now training German troops for a future war with Russia.
Frontline soldiers arrived in Germany before Easter to train Bundeswehr units in drone warfare and modern combat, as Berlin prepares for a possible Russian attack by 2029, Kyiv Post. 1/
Training runs across core combat schools.
Ukrainians teach at tank, engineer, and unmanned systems centers, with artillery schools next. Focus: drone use, protection, and integration into armored and artillery units. 2/
Instructors are not theorists.
“These are not staff officers,” Freuding says — they are soldiers with direct battlefield experience, the only force in Europe with large-scale combat experience against Russia. 3/
Bolton: The US military did sink all Iranian mine-laying ships. But Iran is using fast boats, each carrying one mine and able to swarm tankers with man-portable rockets.
Trump has said for weeks the Iranian navy was destroyed. Except for these boats. 1/
Bolton: I wouldn't have entered into this ceasefire — it purely benefits Iran. They were getting pounded for six weeks.
When the bombing stops, they regroup and reorganize. Military pressure is what moved Iran at all. When you relent — they see American weakness. 2/
Bolton, on Trump's claim of regime change in Iran: It obviously hasn't happened. The Revolutionary Guard holds what they call purification campaigns to ensure no deviations from what the ayatollahs dictated.
Von der Leyen: Europe doubles down on support for Ukraine, while Russia doubles down on aggression.
We also adopted the 20th sanctions package. The sanctions are biting so hard that the Kremlin is restricting internet and free communication, creating a digital iron curtain. 1/
Von der Leyen: This is Europe’s second energy crisis in four years. In just 60 days of conflict, our fossil-fuel import bill rose by more than €27 billion without one extra molecule of energy.
The answer is obvious: cut imported fossil-fuel dependence and electrify Europe. 2/
Von der Leyen: Any peace agreement will have to restore full and permanent freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.
It will also have to address Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile program. The consequences of this conflict may echo for months or years. 3/