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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 22

Ukraine is proposing naming a slice of the Donbas “Donnyland” to pull Trump toward Kyiv’s position in peace talks, — NYT.

Ukraine is testing a simple lever — attach Trump’s name to a postwar arrangement, then make abandoning it politically costly in Washington. 1/

The territory is a front line.

A depopulated strip about 50 miles long and 40 miles wide, with one working coal mine and businesses that serve soldiers. Netting covers the main highway into the area to protect against exploding drones. 2/

The talks are stuck on who controls that land after a ceasefire.

Russia wants full legal control of the Donbas. Ukraine wants a structure that blocks a future invasion and does not legitimize Russian annexation. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

Trump spoke to Bloomberg, CBS, Axios and the New York Post in one morning. He claimed Iran agreed to an "unlimited" nuclear suspension, to hand over its enriched uranium, and to a weekend deal.

None of it was true. A near-deal collapsed within hours — CNN. 1/

Trump told Bloomberg Iran agreed to an "unlimited" suspension of enrichment.

He told CBS Tehran "agreed to everything" and would hand over its uranium. He told Axios a deal would come "in the next day or two." Sources said Iran had not agreed to those terms. 2/

Source familiar with the talks, to CNN: "The Iranians didn't appreciate POTUS negotiating through social media and making it appear as if they had signed off on issues they hadn't yet agreed to."

Trump officials privately told CNN the commentary damaged the talks. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

China gained more from the Iran war than anyone — without firing a single shot.

Diplomatic leverage, military intelligence, energy dominance, rare earth dependency — Axios. 1/

The US committed roughly 80% of its JASSM-ER stealth cruise missile inventory to the Iran fight, pulling stockpiles from the Pacific.

The conflict significantly depleted US supplies of Tomahawk and Patriot missiles, THAAD interceptors and drones. 2/

Beijing got a free masterclass in modern American warfighting: how the US uses AI to target, how it rotates carrier groups, how cheap Iranian drones drain its most expensive interceptors.

For Chinese war planners gaming out a Taiwan invasion, it was better than any simulation. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

Ukraine rep. to UN Melnyk: Russia murders civilians. They strike ambulances, emergency personnel and firefighters. Between March 30th-April 13th, Russia launched over 3600 strike UAVs, 1350 guided bombs and more than 40 missiles against Ukraine, killing at least 70 civilians. 1/

Melnyk: Russia does not control more than 20% of the Donetsk region territory. This is pure blackmail. Russia demands Ukraine to abandon one of the most heavily fortified and logistically developed defensive lines. 2/

Melnyk: We must not forget that beyond these fortifications there are cities and villages where Ukrainians live. How can we leave hundreds of thousands of these people?

To seize the territory, Putin would have to send at least another 1.5M soldiers. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

Zelenskyy: Putin still has major economic problems, $100B deficit.

A short Middle East war won’t cover Russia’s huge deficit — maybe 10% at most. A longer war helps Moscow, drains the US, pressures Europe’s energy reserves, and shifts the global balance toward China.

1/

Zelenskyy: We prepared a “drone deal” for the US and proposed it to Trump.

It’s a full defense system: drones, anti-drone protection, air defense, and electronic warfare. Ukraine has built a unique system for stopping mass attacks because of this war.

2/

Zelenskyy: Ukraine is investing $30 billion in defense in 2026. The industry says it already has capacity for $60 billion in output.

This is a massive wartime leap — from almost nothing to a major defense sector, built with partner funding and years of rapid growth.

3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 21

Stubb: I don’t believe in a world without alliances.

The danger today is a world of spheres of influence, where institutions weaken and big powers do what they want while small countries do what they can.

1/

Stubb: We are witnessing a new shift in world order — like after 1918, 1945, and 1989. The post-Cold War system lasted about three decades.

Its break began with Russia’s war on Ukraine and has been accelerated by recent US foreign policy and new regional wars.

2/

Stubb: After the Cold War came a unipolar moment with the US in the driver’s seat.

Many believed no reform of post-WWII institutions was needed. That era began to fade after 9/11, Iraq, Afghanistan, and other shocks that changed global politics.

3/