Applebaum: Trump clearly did not expect the Iran war to last this long. He seems to have imagined it would be easy.
If people in the room told him otherwise, he ignored them. He knows very little about Iran and even seemed surprised by Hormuz and Iranian strikes. 1/
Applebaum: People around the world now read news from Washington by first asking whether it is real.
Trump helped create that post-reality world by nurturing conspiracy theories and undermining trust in media. That is a classic authoritarian tactic. 2/
Applebaum: This is a war Trump does not want to think about.
He keeps looking for somebody else to blame and even decided to blame Europeans, who did not start the war, were not consulted about it, and have very little ability to end it. 3/
The US, EU, Turkey and China all now compete with Russia for control over the Caucasus.
Armenia and Azerbaijan just ended a decades-long war, and that peace opened new energy and trade routes through the narrow strip linking Europe and Asia. — Bloomberg.
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The US secured exclusive rights to develop the TRIPP corridor — a rail and road route across Armenia's south connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan.
The agreement extends to oil and gas pipelines and fiber optic networks for 99 years.
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The EU plans to strike a connectivity partnership with Armenia — a potential funding package of up to €2.5 billion.
The first-ever EU-Armenia summit takes place Tuesday. Armenia applied for EU membership last year.
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A group of five Ukrainian hackers tricked 2500 Russians into revealing their location — The Times.
They created a bot that posed as a group of cybercriminals. Russians asked to add their Starlinks to the database as Ukrainian. In exchange, they gave their crypto wallet.
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“Fucking Ukrainians, you are liars! Always find a way to take money. You are worse then Jews” — a Russian soldier after he was told that he was scammed by Ukrainian military.
After getting the wallet, the hacker group always revealed themselves to demmoralize Russians.
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Ukrainian hacker: Sometimes we create images of girls with AI and pretend to be them while talking to Russians on the frontline and recieve information from them.
This group also gained access to the location of Russian arms factories which were struck later.
Kellogg: The Ukrainians have fought brilliantly. Since 2014, they have lost only about 1% of their land.
If Russia were really winning, it would be across the Dnipro, in Kharkiv, in Kyiv. It is not. My message to Moscow is simple: you are not winning, you are losing. 1/
Kellogg: Putin has a problem of his own making. Russia has taken roughly 1.2 to 1.4 million dead and wounded.
The Soviets left Afghanistan after losing only 18,000. And yet Moscow still cannot take the rest of Donbas from fortified Ukrainian positions. 2/
Kellogg: This is a European issue, and Europe needs to solve it. If Ukraine gives up defensible terrain in Donbas, it opens the heartland and Kyiv.
So Russia should stop pretending it can take the rest and start negotiating around what it can actually hold. 3X
Kellogg: The [Hormuz] blockade was a brilliant move, but I think it has to go further.
We need to put the regime itself at risk, put the people running it one step from death, and make clear this is no longer just about Hormuz. Iran’s national survival is now at stake. 1/
Kellogg: I would go to Kharg Island or the Gulf islands and open the waterway. Then you have real leverage.
It stops being a negotiation over shipping lanes and becomes a negotiation over regime survival, with pressure placed directly on the Guards and the leadership. 2/
Kellogg: I don’t think there is a real negotiating partner left. The foreign minister is the face, but the shots are being called by the Revolutionary Guards.
The supreme leader is in hiding, the government is fractured, and the men with the guns are now effectively in charge 3/
Pompeo: There is no such thing as a moderate Iranian leader. They are all radicals.
If they appear to surrender, do not fall for it. For us it will look like surrender. For them it will look like continuation. 1/
Pompeo: We are already taking military action.
The US Navy, Space Command, and others are enforcing a blockade to stop Iran from rearming and resupplying not only its nuclear capabilities, but its conventional forces too. The blockade has proven effective. 2/
Pompeo: If we withdraw our forces today or end the blockade, it does not reopen Hormuz.
It means Iran would control the world’s energy supply for years to come. That is why this cannot end with half-measures. We have to stay the course. 3/