Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tymofiy Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mylovanov

Dec 3
Europe is rearming at a speed not seen in decades.

SAFE, the new €150bn EU defence fund, already filled: 19 states applied, Poland alone asks for €43.7bn, writes The Economist.

1/ Image
SAFE + the National Escape Clause open a massive spending channel.

NEC lets states add 1.5% of GDP to defence over four years, unlocking roughly €650bn.

This is the spine of “Readiness 2030”.

2/
NATO’s European members now commit to 3.5% of GDP for core defence by 2035, plus another 1.5% for infrastructure.

Why this jump?

Because America moves out.

The Pentagon’s Global Posture Review shifts forces to Asia and asks Europe to pay for all weapons sent to Ukraine.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Dec 3
Alexander Stubb writes in FA the post-1945 order is collapsing. The world is shifting from rules to hard multipolar power.

Three blocs — West, East, South — now drive geopolitics. Middle powers like Brazil, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey decide outcomes.

1/ Image
He warns the West has 5–10 years to prove it can act without double standards, share real power and treat the global South as an equal partner. If it fails, the next order will run on deals, not rules and small states will get crushed.

2/
Stubb’s UN reform plan is:

- Add 5 permanent seats (2 Africa, 2 Asia, 1 Latin America)
- Abolish the veto
- Suspend any state that violates the UN Charter which would have suspended Russia after 24 Feb 2022.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dec 3
Germany spent decades preaching pacifism

Now it is buying tanks, building suicide drones, deploying troops abroad and committing €460 billion to rearmament

Isaac Stanley-Becker in The Atlantic shows how a nation built on “never again” is preparing for war again. 1/ Image
Lt. Gen. Freuding says the old U.S.-led order is “really cut off.”

During Trump’s freeze on Ukraine weapons, Germany received no warning. German officers now hunt for information through their embassy because their Pentagon contacts have gone silent. 2/
Berlin’s answer is the Zeitenwende — Germany’s declared “turning point.”

The government vows to build “the strongest army in Europe” and, for the first time since WWII, is permanently stationing 5,000 troops abroad — Panzerbrigade 45 in Lithuania by 2027. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 2
Russia enters new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil with serious economic cracks.

KSE Institute shows oil earnings in October fell to $13.1B, as Moscow sold barrels at $54, far below global prices.

1/ Image
Russia’s budget hole keeps widening.

January–October deficit hit 4.2T rubles and will likely break the revised 5.7T target in December’s spending surge.

The Kremlin now borrows at record speed: 4.5T rubles in domestric government bonds already, up 135% year-on-year.

2/
The liquid share of the National Welfare Fund shrank to 4.2T rubles, 31% of assets, compared to 75% before the full-scale invasion.

This leaves Putin with far less cash to plug the war budget.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 2
Andriy Yermak’s quit changed Ukraine’s peace team - The Telegraph.

Yermak led negotiations, rejected any territorial concessions.

Now figures like spy chief Budanov, who has already met US Secretary Driscoll and speaks of Trump’s “crucial role” in ending the war, will lead. 1/ Image
NABU raided Yermak’s home over a $100M energy graft scandal.

Hours later, he quit as head of the presidential administration. His exit ends years of dominance inside Zelenskyy’s circle.

2/
His fall is seen as a win for anti-corruption activists and may help Zelenskyy distance himself from scandals that angered Western donors.

Yermak clashed with the Maga camp, accusing trump’s aides of ties to Moscow. His removal may help rebuild ties with Washington.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 2
Putin: If Europe starts a war, then soon Moscow will have no one to negotiate with

Russia has no intention of going to war with Europe. But if Europe starts a war, Russia is ready right now.

[Russia is exhausted after three years of war in Ukraine and not ready to face NATO] 1/
Putin: Europe has removed itself from the Ukrainian settlement.

The Europeans have no peaceful agenda and are now hindering US efforts to resolve the situation.

They are living under the illusion of their original goal of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia.

2/
Putin: Attacks on tankers in the Black Sea are piracy.

In response to the attacks on tankers, Russia will expand its strikes on Ukrainian ports and ships entering those ports.

3/
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(