Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 8
Kasyanov, Putin’s first-term PM, says Putin reshaped Russia by “poisoning minds” with fear, loyalty tests and money.

He recalls Putin warning him: “If you get into politics, I’ll crush you.” He says this tactic later spread from elites to the whole population - The Times. 1/ Image
After he distanced himself, Putin revived an old smear calling him “Misha two per cent” — a claim that he took a 2% cut from big deals while in office.

Kasyanov says the accusation was false but used to damage him and signal how dissenters would be handled. 2/
Russia later labeled him a “foreign agent” in 2023 and a “terrorist and extremist” in 2025.

The FSB accused him and other exiled opposition figures of plotting to overthrow Putin and funding Ukrainian units. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8
Gen. Dan Caine: Ukraine’s industrial base building tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands of drones is extraordinary.

Those are the entrepreneurial lessons we need from that fight. It’s another case study in the importance of putting air power over a battlefield. 1/
Caine: The fixed and frozen lines in Ukraine show an opportunity to learn about protecting the force on the ground.

Having been one of those guys on the ground, I value air power that can put an adversary in a particular place of pain. We must scale our own FPV capabilities. 2/
Caine: A major lesson from Ukraine is the need for mass.

Future wars will involve unprecedented kinetic and non-kinetic exchanges.

So we’ll need a new high-low mix: a few bespoke systems, but far more low-cost, expendable ones that create many dilemmas for an adversary. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Macron: Russia’s position about peace in Ukraine hasn’t changed since Istanbul 2022.

It demands control of all claimed territories, no security guarantees for Ukraine, and political changes in Kyiv.

These are surrender terms. Peace proposals exist, but Russia rejects them. 1/
Macron: If Russia keeps these terms, talks cannot move. The only strategy is to continue military support for Ukraine and provide economic pressure on Russia.

The US and Europe must stay aligned: the US leads diplomacy, Europe provides security guarantees and frozen assets. 2/
Macron: China and Brazil work in the “group of friends of peace.” China accepts that any peace must prevent renewed aggression.

Defense chiefs from the US, France, and the UK coordinate on security planning, but Russia shows no readiness to negotiate. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Democratic Senator Peter Welch: Congress rejected Trump’s 28-point “peace plan” because it looked like a surrender to Russia.

The plan required Ukraine to give up territory it still controls — that’s unacceptable. 1/
Peter Welch: Some in Trump’s team lean toward Russia, but he wants a deal. A sanctions bill now has 85 co-sponsors — almost never happens in the Senate.

Any peace agreement must ensure Russia cannot resume aggression. Ukraine needs real security guarantees. 2/
Peter Welch: If peace talks fail, the U.S. should increase pressure: allow Ukraine to hit military sites inside Russia and cut Moscow’s oil revenues from India and China.

The terms must be set by Ukraine — not Washington and not Moscow. 3X
Read 4 tweets
Dec 7
Germany’s Merz says frozen Russian assets for Ukraine must be a shared EU risk — and Belgium cannot be left carrying the burden alone — Reuters.

Merz writes in FAZ that EU states must incur an equal share of the risk, as a function of their respective economic performance. 1/ Image
After the European Commission proposed using or borrowing against frozen Russian state assets to raise €90B for Ukraine.

Belgium, which holds the largest share of these assets, has resisted without legal guarantees. 2/
Merz says political assurances are insufficient and Brussels is right to demand binding protection.

Merz: It would be unacceptable for a single country to bear an excessive burden, — signalling Berlin’s support for a collective EU liability structure. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 7
Trump’s new National Security Strategy drops shared values and replaces them with raw power.

It calls this flexible realism. In practice it rewrites alliances, revives 19th-century spheres of influence and alarms every major US partner — The Economist. 1/ Image
Released quietly on Dec 4-5, the NSS declares America’s alliances are not built on common values but on what works for America.

It rejects the idea that democracies bind together around principles. It presents power, not ideals, as the core of US policy. 2/
On Ukraine, the strategy assumes Europeans want peace even if it means concessions to Putin. It urges a fast end to the war to prevent escalation, questions NATO enlargement, and avoids any mention of Russia’s decade of aggression — a posture that looks like appeasement. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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