Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 18
Ukraine’s 20-somethings are reshaping its war machine and displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense.

A Defense Ministry staffer in her early 20s found Denmark had earmarked the wrong shells for Ukraine and secured 15,000 long-range rounds, NYT. 1/ Image
The staffer works under Oleksii Antoniuk, 24, deputy head of the ministry’s cooperation department.
Oleksii: “If not for her, this wouldn’t have happened.”

Young Ukrainians under 30 are gradually displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense. 2/
The shift runs through Ukraine’s war machine.

Twentysomething engineers design drones, young entrepreneurs turn prototypes into production lines, and recent graduates at the Defense Ministry cut red tape to speed weapons to the front. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 18
Applebaum: Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 partly as a direct challenge to NATO and the United States.

Moscow wanted to prove there was no Western alliance, that Ukraine was not a real country, and that Europe and America would not come to its defense. 1/
Applebaum: Russia wanted to show that it alone was the sovereign power in Eastern Europe and would decide what happened there.

Instead, it was surprised: the United States and a united Europe pulled together and proved that a democratic world still exists. 2/
Applebaum: Negotiations will become possible only when Russia decides to stop fighting and accepts that it cannot achieve its main goal—the destruction of Ukraine as a nation.

Russia has not reached that point. Putin has never withdrawn that objective. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 18
Applebaum: The war with Iran was clearly a war of choice. Israel had proposed this kind of action to previous US presidents, and they declined.

They understood the immediate danger to international shipping and especially to the oil and gas industries. 1/
Applebaum: Trump now appears to regret the war, or at least has no interest in continuing it.

He is seeking an agreement that could resemble — or even be slightly worse than — the Obama-era deal, while the claim that Iran was about to get a bomb does not add up. 2/
Applebaum: Trump failed to account for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or retaliating against Gulf states, and then expressed surprise.

Yet anyone who had studied a war with Iran over the past two decades had already identified both risks as obvious possibilities. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 18
Applebaum: Trump’s relationship with Erdoğan grows out of his business dealings in Turkey.

He invested there, believes those investments went well, and his family company still has interests there — or could. He sees the world in personal, transactional terms. 1/
Applebaum: Trump does not think like a traditional American president representing US interests, the Western alliance, or the democratic world.

He asks what is good for him personally. He likes Erdoğan, and that is the simplest way to understand their closeness. 2/
Applebaum: Trump states his personal view and assumes that it therefore becomes the policy of the United States.

But the American system is more complicated than the president’s preferences: Congress may still restrain the weapons sales he wants to make to Turkey. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 18
Zelenskyy: I spoke at length with Mykhailo Fedorov today. I also spoke with Oleksandr Syrskyi.

I hear what people are saying. Decisions on the army are coming. There were many consultations yesterday and today. 1/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine struck targets near Moscow and in the Tambov region.

We hit Russian logistics sites and warehouses that supplied navigation equipment, drone components and other materiel to the Russian army. 2/
Zelenskyy: Ukrainian weapons also hit another Russian oil facility and targets in the Azov and Black Sea waters.

This was an important operation. More will follow. Ukraine will also receive more medium-range strike capabilities. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 18
Zelenskyy is considering replacing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

He may do so if he finds a successor who can ensure a smooth transfer and hold a stable defense along the 1,200 km front.

He will meet commanders this weekend to assess candidates, FT. 1/ Image
The crisis started after Syrsky gave Zelenskyy an ultimatum to remove Fedorov, according to Fedorov.

Zelenskyy said the two men no longer spoke directly without him mediating. 2/
Fedorov said Syrsky blocked defense ministry reforms.

He argued Ukraine needs new senior military leadership to fight Russia asymmetrically, with drones, automation and fewer losses. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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