Rachman, FT: "The current wars in Ukraine and Iran underline how foolish it is to assume that a military superpower will always win a war against a smaller country."
China's assumption that Taiwan would be helpless without American support is a dangerous mistake.
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Ukraine has no navy — yet forced the Russian navy out of the Black Sea. Iran's navy was reportedly destroyed — yet Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed with drones, missiles and speedboats.
Naval superpowers are increasingly vulnerable to cheap weapons.
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Taiwan's strengths: a top-20 global economy, 90%+ of the world's most advanced semiconductors, its own anti-ship missiles and drones, and the natural protection of being an island.
China would need one of the most ambitious seaborne invasions in history.
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Xi Jinping to Trump: Putin may regret invading Ukraine, FT.
Xi said this as the war enters its fifth year, Russia remains stuck in a battlefield stalemate, and Ukrainian drones keep striking Russian troops and targets deep behind the front.
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Xi made the remark during talks with Donald Trump in Beijing last week.
FT: Xi went further than in past US-China talks on Ukraine.
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Putin now heads to China for a new summit with Xi.
The visit comes four days after Trump met Xi in Beijing and 25 years after Jiang Zemin signed the China-Russia friendship treaty with Putin.
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Stubb: The Soviet Union marched 1,600km to Berlin in four years. Russia moved 60km into Donetsk in three.
Who knows modern warfare? Ukraine does. They are Europe's best security partner.
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Stubb: Ukraine kills or wounds 30–35,000 Russians per month. Kill ratio: 1 Ukrainian to 7–8 Russians.
In April, Ukraine took back more territory than Russia gained. 95% of damage comes from Ukrainian drones. The dead zone stretches 20–40km. Russia stopped advancing.
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Stubb: Most Russians now oppose the war. Ukraine strikes reach Moscow airports and St. Petersburg.
Russia shut down Telegram and WhatsApp. The war arrived home. The mood shifted — and now it's time to engage Russia directly.
Gates, former US Def. Sec: It would be a mistake to change the carefully worded US position on Taiwan.
Experts parse these things down to the tense of the verbs. Keeping the US position as it has been is important, and everything I’ve seen indicates the president did that. 1/
Gates: The US should go forward with what we’ve agreed with Taiwan. There is a huge backlog of weapons we sold to Taiwan that we have not been able to deliver.
An important shift is getting Taiwan to focus on weapons needed to defend against a Chinese amphibious invasion. 2Х
Ukrainians are currently teaching 18,000 NATO troops on the Swedish island of Gotland.
The Aurora 26 exercises bring together 12 NATO members and Ukraine as a tutor. Ukrainian soldiers are sharing their experience in drone warfare — Radio Svoboda.
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For Sweden, the Aurora 26 exercises are part of the process of deepening its integration within NATO, which it joined just two years ago.
Gotland provides a strategic location between mainland Sweden and the Baltic states to the East.
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Aurora 26 presents a show of strength on NATO’s East border.
Gustaffson, Commander of Sweden’s Gotland Regiment: For now Russia is occupied in Ukraine. But if there is a ceasfire, it will easily switch to NATO.
Zelenskyy: Russia is considering plans for operations to the south and north of Belarusian territory, either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries directly from the territory of Belarus — Reuters. 1/
Russia has already deployed tactical nuclear warheads and Oreshnik hypersonic missiles in Belarus.
Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia all share the border. Both systems shorten Moscow's flight time to Warsaw, Vilnius, and Riga. 2/
Lukashenko opened Belarus as a launchpad for Russia's Feb 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
He never sent Belarusian troops to fight, because Moscow needed the territory, not the soldiers. Minsk keeps handing it over. 3/