Russia's war spending can exceed its budget by at least $28 billion this year. In a worst-case scenario — $56 billion over.
The Finance Ministry asked the cabinet to freeze $40 billion of planned civilian spending through 2028 to cover the shortfall, FT.
1/
Russia allocated $238 billion, nearly 40% of this year's entire budget, to defence and security. Still not enough.
In the first four months of 2026, Russia's deficit already hit 2.5% of GDP — the largest since the full-scale invasion began.
2/
Finance Minister Siluanov: "Our reserves are not endless. We can't allow any weak points in our finances while such major transformations are going on in the world."
The economy ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to just 0.4%.
3/
Ukraine hit Rosneft's Saratov oil refinery in southwestern Russia.
The plant processes 7 million tons of crude per year and produces fuel for Russia's military. This is the third strike on it this year. — Bloomberg. 1/
The same night, Ukraine hit an oil-pumping station on the Surgut-Gorky-Polotsk pipeline in central Russia's Kirov region.
Russia's Defense Ministry said 216 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.
2/
The strikes are part of Ukraine's stepped-up campaign against Russian oil assets — refineries, pipeline infrastructure and ports — targeting Kremlin petrodollar revenue as the Iran war keeps oil prices elevated.
Russia declared it had captured all of Luhansk. Ukrainian drones answered by striking Izvaryne, the crossing on the Russian border that funnels armor, ammunition, and troops into the region.
The deepest strike landed 205 km inside occupied territory — Kyiv Post. 1/
Izvaryne is the primary artery moving heavy equipment and reinforcements from mainland Russia to the Donbas front.
Cut it, and resupply into occupied Luhansk slows for thousands of Russian troops. 2/
The corps' unmanned systems battalion bypassed Russian electronic warfare cover to reach the target.
Pilots neutralized armored vehicles and destroyed forward ammunition depots inside the occupied enclave. 3/
Valery Zaluzhnyi, former Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces:
“It is impossible to create a reliable counterbalance to Russia in the Black Sea without Ukraine.” — Interfax. 1/
Ukraine’s participation in shaping the future security space in the region is only possible through membership in a political and security alliance. 2/
The Azov-Black Sea region is not just access to the sea. It is a strategic platform through which Ukraine can project power toward the Mediterranean, the Middle East and Africa. Russia almost achieved dominance here before the full-scale invasion. 3/
Sen. Chris Murphy: Trump does not want to do what is necessary to support Ukraine, and Republicans follow his lead.
A bipartisan Russia sanctions bill has sat for a year and a half because Trump will not let Senate Republicans move it. 1/
Murphy: Congress allocated $400 million to help Ukraine, and Trump has not spent a dime of it despite loud public and private protests from Senate Republicans.
He has decided he does not want to help Ukraine, and Republicans lack the courage to fight back. 2/
Murphy: The Iran war has been a disaster for the United States.
It humiliated America, made Iran more powerful, raised gas prices and forced Washington to suspend sanctions on Russian oil, meaning Russia is getting stronger too. 3/
Bolton: The ceasefire has been a gift from God to the Iranian regime.
If Trump will not return to full-scale military activity, the minimum is clear: open the Gulf Arab side of Hormuz, get Arab oil and gas out, and keep Iranian exports blocked. 1/
Bolton: When diplomats say “sequencing” is the only problem, hold on to your wallet.
It usually means there is a much bigger problem they are trying to obscure. 2/
Bolton: Iran has now tested closing Hormuz and seen the havoc it can wreak.
Reestablishing deterrence means bloodying Iran badly enough to show it cannot close the Strait cost-free or act as if it is master of the Strait. 3X