Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 26
Keane: If kinetic operations resume, everyone influencing them is target one.

The [Hormuz] blockade is holding, the US now has twice the power in the region it had when the war started, and Israel is replenished. That is why the blow available now is absolutely significant. 1/
Keane: Tehran thinks it made progress by forcing the US into a pause and ceasefire after closing Hormuz.

That only encourages it to drag the talks out. In its mind, the longer this runs, the more pressure builds on Trump to make concessions he never wanted to make. 2/
Keane: The more flexible political figures have been sidelined. The foreign minister has little power.

These talks reflect the views of the head of the IRGC, and these are bona fide hardliners. The men with the guns are the dominant power in Tehran now. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 25
Ukraine Def. Minister Mykhailo Fedorov: cut Russia’s Starlink access, signed a record Patriot missile contract, bought more drones in one quarter than in all of last year, launched an AI center, reorganized the MoD and started an audit of the defense-industrial complex. 1/ Image
Three months of new leadership — Fedorov for United24. First move: together with SpaceX, they cut Russia’s access to Starlink terminals. The Russian army lost communications for managing Shahed drones. 2/
Created a dedicated small air defense command and appointed Pavlo Lazar as deputy commander. Introduced after-action review for every strike on critical infrastructure and a rapid response mechanism. Interception rates across all aerial threats increased. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Apr 25
Surrendering Donetsk Oblast without a fight means strategic suicide for Ukraine.

If Ukraine withdraws, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts become immediately vulnerable with no urban areas to anchor defenses, writes Mykola Bielieskov in Kyiv Independent. 1/ Image
The Kremlin framed withdrawal from northwest Donetsk Oblast as a minor concession for peace. Trump largely accepted this framing.

The result: the White House now casts Zelenskyy’s defense of Ukrainian territory as the main obstacle to a ceasefire. 2/
68% of Ukrainians oppose surrendering northwest Donetsk Oblast even when told that US security commitments in return might be vague. Zelenskyy has no legal authority to cede Ukrainian territory regardless. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 25
North Korea has 50 nuclear bombs and enough material to build 40-50 more. It has 20 delivery systems including ICBMs that reach the US. Denuclearization has failed across 7 US administrations, Time for a new strategy, writes Victor Cha in FA. 1/ Image
In 2006 at the six-party talks in Beijing, a North Korean diplomat told Cha directly: “We will never give up our nuclear weapons.”

The US attacked Afghanistan and Iraq because they had no nuclear weapons. North Korea was not willing to tempt the same fate. 2/
Every agreement failed because North Korea was never serious about giving up its weapons. The 1994 Agreed Framework, the 2005 six-party deal, the 2012 Leap Day Deal, Trump’s Singapore and Hanoi summits — all collapsed because Pyongyang kept building. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Apr 25
“I am Ukrainian. If you [Russians] come here, I will have no choice but to kill every one of you who signs a contract.”

A Ukrainian soldier crashed a Russian university recruitment Zoom call in Krasnodar after posing as a Russian drone officer — The Telegraph. 1/
“The front line has barely moved in four years and Russia’s invasion created “a cemetery the size of two countries. Any Russian who steps onto Ukrainian soil will be killed.” 2/
The call took place at Kuban State Agrarian University, where students were being recruited for Russia’s drone forces. Staff cut the feed only after he warned that all their faces were recorded. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Apr 25
Europe’s economy runs on American infrastructure.

iPhones powered by Apple and Google, cloud from Amazon and Microsoft, payments via Visa and Mastercard, LNG from the US replacing Russian gas — core systems are controlled by US firms, The Economist. 1/ Image
European companies failed to compete at home.

Strict regulation slowed local firms, while US tech scaled globally and captured European markets — even governments rely on Palantir for data and SpaceX for satellites. 2/
Regulation hit European firms harder than American ones.

Compliance costs were manageable for Big Tech but blocked smaller EU players, turning rules into barriers that protected US dominance instead of limiting it. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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