Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 5
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]:

Three large groups have formed in Russian society: 15% westernizers, 15% war beneficiaries who think Putin is not aggressive enough, and 70% who want the war to stop but on their terms, meaning Russia has not lost. 1/
Khodorkovsky: For Putin, Russian society is the foundation of his power over the security structures.
If society stops supporting him, his only support will be the secret services, and he will become dependent on them. He does not want this. 2/
Khodorkovsky: The Kremlin has two towers: secret services, mainly the FSB as secret police, and civilian bureaucrats who want to preserve Putin’s power with fewer repressions. They fight for resources. There are no good people among them. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 5
Russia made 144 UAV sorties into European airspace over 19 months across more than a dozen NATO countries and Ireland.

The campaign mapped NATO air-defense gaps, often near ports, airports, energy sites and military bases — FT. 1/ Image
The campaign had no collective allied response.

Governments treated drone sightings as separate national incidents.

Some were reluctant to accuse Russia directly, even when the pattern pointed to coordinated activity. 2/
The most visible case was Poland in September 2025.

24 drones entered Polish airspace.
Some were shot down by NATO. Other incidents were harder to attribute but fit the wider pattern. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 4
Ukraine is proposing a roadmap to stabilize relations with Poland after a dispute over historical memory.

Proposal has three tracks: foreign ministry consultations, meetings between WWII historians, and religious leaders joining bilateral dialogue — United24. 1/ Image
The proposal was presented by FM Andrii Sybiha to Poland’s Radosław Sikorski in Warsaw.
Kyiv’s message — the dispute should be handled through institutions, not public escalation, and Moscow should not benefit from tension between allies. 2/
The historical track includes renewed historian congresses and continued exhumation procedures.
Ukraine says progress has already been made over the past 18 months and that exhumations should continue through official channels. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 4
Five towns hold the Donbas. Ukraine has turned them into anti-drone net tunnels and kill zones Russia has battered for years.

This fortress belt is the 10% of the Donbas Russia demands in any peace deal. Losing it opens the lowlands to Dnipro, Kharkiv and Kyiv — The Guardian.1/ Image
Lyman sits at the northern edge of the belt. Moscow's forces push daily to retake the city Ukraine drove them out of in the 2022 counteroffensive.

Spent fibre-optic cable from years of drone fighting now hangs so thickly over the buildings that fresh drones tangle in it. 2/
Oleksandr Pavlovych, a vegetable seller, fled Lyman after shrapnel hit his 78-year-old mother in the stomach. She died slowly over a day, and he buried her in the garden.

He then rode a bicycle 30 km to Sloviansk, surviving an FPV drone that exploded on an anti-drone net. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 3
Firepoint co-founder Shtilierman: Ukraine does not need 300 km ballistic missiles. Moscow is not 300 km from our border.

Russia is a monocentric state, with power concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That is why Ukraine is developing longer-range ballistic capabilities. 1/
Shtilierman: We produce Flamingo missiles as much as we are ordered to produce.

The capacity is there. The bottleneck is bureaucracy around engine exports in Europe and the U.S.

2/
Shtilierman: There are five Flamingo launches in open sources.

We never publish anything before the official General Staff report. Many missions happen and are never publicly reported.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 3
Russian intelligence started tracking Boris Johnson while he was an Oxford student in the 1980s.

The Kremlin called him "likeable but not trustworthy," said he had "no principles" and "could be easily manipulated," The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Russian officers ruled out recruiting Johnson.

Their conclusion: "A manic self-promoter such as Johnson can't really be taken seriously as a candidate for any deep and lasting intelligence connection." 2/
Dominic Cummings, the architect of the Vote Leave campaign and Boris Johnson's future chief adviser, moved to Russia in 1994.

Russian intelligence suspected he was already working with MI6 but opened a file on him anyway and tried to recruit him. 3/
Read 11 tweets

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