Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 11
Kasparov: If Russia crosses into Estonia or Finland — NATO formally needs Article 5, Brussels, the American general reports to Washington.

The question is: will Trump not be playing golf at that moment?

1/
Kasparov: I see zero signs that Russia is ready for any negotiation process — not in propaganda, not in the economy, not in statements from Putin, Lavrov or Peskov.

Maybe I missed something. But so far we see exactly the opposite vector.

2/
Kasparov: NATO as we knew it no longer exists. The infrastructure remains, the internal ties remain, but it will all work differently now.

For the first time since the Cold War, NATO faces a real threat of military confrontation with Russia. And in fact, it is already happening.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 11
Queues stretch up to nine miles beyond Crimea's checkpoints. 79% of hotel bookings cancelled. Fuel sold on Telegram at $25 a gallon. Blackouts last for days. Water available one hour a day.

Putin's "sacred" peninsula has become a burden. — The Telegraph.

1/ Image
Ukraine struck 50 energy facilities in Crimea between July 1–8. Hit 76 shadow-fleet tankers in the Sea of Azov this week. Long-range strikes jumped 1,150% in 2026.

Six choke-point bridges under attack. Russian authorities suspended all fuel sales to private individuals.

2/
Fedorov: "In the near future, Crimea will become an island. For the Russians, the real hell is just beginning."

The fuel crunch has spread to at least 78 of Russia's 83 federal regions. Police and National Guard deployed to petrol stations to prevent confrontations.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 11
Browder: Trump is both U.S. president and a businessman.

It wouldn't be a leap to say Putin could have made lucrative business offers in exchange for less support for Ukraine. I don't see a better theory for what's happening.

1/
Browder: The U.S. told Gulf allies not to buy Ukrainian drone technology.

I have heard this from sources I trust, and I believe Trump did not want Ukraine to benefit. Europe should instead invest in Ukrainian defense technology through joint ventures and production.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
Browder: Ukraine has damaged 25–40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.

If it doubles that, it can tell Russia: stop bombing our civilians, and we stop hitting your refineries. Ukraine has also turned the front line into a drone kill zone where crossing is deadly.

1/
Browder: We should not underestimate Russia.

It still has a much larger population, deeper financial resources, and bigger ammunition stockpiles than Ukraine.

Even if Russian forces in Crimea collapse, Ukraine may still lack the troops needed to retake it.

2/
Browder: Most people follow the crowd. They do not act until disaster hits.

America stayed out of World War II until Pearl Harbor. Nobody redesigns a faulty aircraft until after it crashes. That is where we are today.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 10
For the first time since 2022, Ukraine has a coherent theory of victory. Instead of grinding down the Russian army at huge cost, Kyiv now destroys Russia's capacity to wage war.

It targets the revenue, fuel, and the supply lines that feed the front — Christian Caryl, FP. 1/ Image
Former DM Zagorodnyuk calls this strategic neutralization. Render Russian forces ineffective by cutting their support, rather than storming their positions.

The proof of concept is the Black Sea Fleet. Naval drones drove it from Sevastopol without a single Ukrainian warship. 2/
The same logic now targets Crimea. Ukraine is severing the supply lines that feed Russian troops there with ammunition, fuel, and food, rather than storming the peninsula.

Serhii, a battalion commander in Sloviansk: I think we can cut Crimea off by the end of the summer. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 10
Browder: Putin started a war because he stole so much money that he became afraid of his own people.

The easiest way to stop people turning against you is to create a foreign enemy. That is Machiavelli 101. 1/
Browder: If Putin used a nuclear weapon, he still would not win the war.

Ukraine is too large and too dispersed. China and the Global South would step away, and Putin would become a fully defined war criminal. 2/
Browder: This war is more likely to end like Korea than with a peace agreement.

Ukraine will keep making the war more painful for Russia until both sides stop attacking each other across a fortified front line. Nobody will negotiate peace. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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