Ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine, Taylor: While we weren't looking, Ukraine took the initiative. Taking more land back than Russia takes. More deep strikes into Russia than Russia fires into Ukraine.
Killing more Russians than Russia can recruit. That's the momentum shift. 1/
Taylor: Ukraine has cut off fuel and ammunition for the Russian military in Crimea. They're threatening the last connection — the Kerch Bridge — which Ukrainian drones can now take out.
They are the masters of the drones. And Crimea is being squeezed from every direction. 2/
Taylor: In 2014 when Russia first invaded, 97% of Ukraine's weapons came from abroad. They manufactured 3%. Today 70-80% of weapons on the battlefield are made in Ukraine.
Soviet heavy industry, including the missile industry, was in Ukraine. They draw on that expertise now. 3X
Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.
In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/
Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"
That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/
Hodges: Second — convoys can't move. Bridges into Crimea wrecked. Facilities on the peninsula destroyed. Crimea becoming untenable — not just for tourists, for the military.
Third — oil and gas exports to China, India dramatically reduced. Can't sustain the war economy. 3/
Ex-Ukrainian FM Prystaiko: Putin’s signal to his own people is: do not corner me, because I am dangerous and unpredictable.
But this signal is wearing out. Drones in Moscow and St. Petersburg show that the king is not dressed as well as he wants people to think.
1/
Prystaiko: From Poland’s point of view, Ukraine escalated. The problem is old; it is not about today’s Ukrainians or today’s government.
But Poland is strategically vital for our survival, and we still have not found a way to manage these risks and exit such crises.
2/
Prystaiko: Poland does not want radical escalation now. But if anti-Ukrainian moods help Nawrocki solve domestic problems and gain popularity, Poland may go another round.
Ukraine’s EU accession is not Poland’s priority; protecting its own market is.
Between 2023 and 2024, sabotage attacks across Europe nearly tripled. The year before, they quadrupled.
Russia runs these attacks through ordinary people who never learn they serve Moscow — a Telegram admin, an attractive stranger, a fellow conspiracy theorist, United24. 1/
After the 2018 Skripal poisoning and the 2022 expulsions, Moscow lost most of its career agent networks in the West.
Russian intelligence adapted instead of shrinking. It now hires disposable operatives to cut costs, dodge blame, and scale sabotage almost without limit. 2/
The GRU runs the operation through fake accounts, criminal fronts, cut-outs, and recruiters. The FSB uses diaspora and family ties in Russian-speaking areas.
After 2023, Wagner networks repurposed wartime infrastructure for recruitment over Telegram, Discord, and forums. 3/
Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba on why Putin won't go nuclear: No guarantee Ukraine surrenders. If Ukraine doesn't break after a nuclear strike, it backfires catastrophically.
The rocket falls on Ukraine but the effect hits Russia. They used everything and Ukraine still didn't break. 1/
Kuleba: China will stop him. The first wartime nuclear use since 1945 lifts the taboo for everyone. Israel can nuke Iran. Pakistan can nuke India.
China needs a controlled world, not nuclear chaos. China has leverage over Russia — despite always saying it doesn't. 2/
Kuleba: Trump, despite not being Ukraine's biggest friend, cannot leave nuclear weapons use without a response.
If he does nothing, Putin positions himself stronger against both Europe and America. The Americans will categorically work to prevent this scenario. 3/