Petraeus: The single most catastrophic imaginable event would be conflict between the U.S. and China.
America is spinning more plates than at any time since the Cold War, but the China plate is bigger than all the others combined. It cannot even wobble. 1/
Petraeus: Xi’s goal is Taiwan, reunification is his last bucket-list item. The task is to make sure that every morning in Beijing, when Xi looks at Taiwan, he concludes: not today.
That is the most important mission of the U.S. military. 2/
Petraeus: Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific rests on two things: China’s assessment of U.S. and allied capabilities, and America’s willingness to use them.
The U.S. must transform faster by learning from Ukraine and the Gulf. 3/
Petraeus: The U.S. is in a strategic cul-de-sac with Iran. Any route out has downsides.
Iran has been badly weakened militarily, but it still has drones, missiles, fast boats and the ability to create serious problems in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. 1/
Petraeus: The challenge is restoring freedom of navigation through Hormuz without giving Iran authority to charge tolls or navigation fees.
While still dealing with enriched uranium, sanctions, proxies and the future of Iran’s nuclear program. 2/
Petraeus: Tehran appears to believe Trump has less staying power than Iran does.
Iran does not face midterms, an affordability agenda or fear of losing the House. Trump needs a deal, and the regime seems to understand that leverage. 3X
Putin faces a succession crisis in Chechnya that could erupt into a new war inside Russia, draining troops and money he needs for Ukraine — Christian Caryl, Foreign Policy.
The region's ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, 49, is probably terminally ill, and his heir is his 18-year-old son. 1/
Putin built his presidency by crushing Chechen rebels in the late 1990s, then made a deal with Akhmad Kadyrov. Kadyrov suppressed the insurgency and accepted Moscow's rule, and in return ran Chechnya as he pleased.
A bomb killed Akhmad in 2004. Power passed to his son Ramzan. 2/
That autonomy runs on Russian cash. Moscow transfers $3.8 billion to Chechnya every year, about 92 percent of the republic's entire budget.
Kadyrov treats the money as a personal slush fund and spends it on whim, paying for a lavish lifestyle and a private security force. 3/