Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 11
Zelenskyy: Every dollar invested in drones delivers dozens of dollars in damage to the enemy.

Last year, June to June, Ukraine's drone forces hit over 356,000 Russian targets.

1/
Zelenskyy: When we visit partner military bases, we see how much they need to change.

Equipment sitting in the open, formations built on 20th century rules, columns still moving in convoy, reliance on old strike capabilities.

2/
Zelenskyy: Some partners use the SAFE program to order equipment from the last century — not weapons tested in real war, not weapons Ukraine can co-produce.

Technology that won't survive a battlefield where the drone is the primary weapon.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 11
Hodges: Russia only changes after defeat. Until Russia is crushed on the battlefield, it will not change.

Too many people at the top are invested in the corrupt status quo, and they do not care about ordinary Russians or Russian soldiers. 1/
Hodges: Putin will keep going until he realizes he cannot win.

The key is for the UK, Germany, France, Poland, Finland and others to commit to Ukraine winning, not to a ceasefire Russia will violate before the sun goes down. 2/
Hodges: Supporting Ukraine is not charity. Russia’s war caused energy disruption, food disruption, undersea cable sabotage, pipeline sabotage, drone threats and illegal oil shipping.

These affect everyone. Helping Ukraine is Europe’s strategic interest. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 11
Military historian Phillips O’Brien: There have been no U.S. peace efforts in Ukraine.

There have been efforts to get Putin a very good deal, forcing Ukrainians to give up more territory and people. That is not peace. That is Washington trying to deliver Putin a success. 1/
O’Brien: Trump believed Ukraine had no cards and that he could bully Kyiv into giving Putin a great deal.

He completely underestimated Ukrainian resilience, Ukraine’s own capabilities, and its willingness to fight. That wrongfooted him. 2/
O’Brien: The key strategic development is that the United States changed sides. Trump is closer to Putin than to Ukraine.

But Ukraine fought well anyway, shifted the balance of the war, and learned the U.S. is not to be feared the way it once thought. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 11
Bolton: No regime change in Tehran means nuclear proliferation. Iran rebuilds everything when oil flows again.

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Egypt watch US resolve collapse — and start their own nuclear programs. That's the dynamic we've triggered.

1/
Bolton: Six weeks of bombing Iran wasn't enough. They've been building their deep state for 47 years.

Why would anyone think six weeks dismantles that? The regime is run by religious authoritarian fanatics. They still have missiles.

2/
Bolton: Trump won't put boots on the ground — that's a fact.

The regime isn't popular inside Iran, but people are terrified of the fanatics running it. The worst outcome: stop a few days too soon when we're close to finishing it.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 10
Edward Luce, FT: Trump has lost control of the Iran war the way Jimmy Carter lost control of the hostage crisis.

Carter became a prisoner of what Tehran decided to do.

Trump is now in the same position after Operation Epic Fury and 13 US service members killed. 1/ Image
Trump: I call the shots. I call all the shots.

But Israel ignored his request not to retaliate after Iran's missile attack, then Netanyahu ordered strikes anyway. 2/
The problem is the impression.

If Iran believes Trump cannot stop Israel, Tehran has no reason to concede anything big because the next strike raises the price again. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 10
658 deep strikes Ukraine conducted against Russia in 2025. Twice the 2022–2024 total.

The Economist: Small drones hit ports and refineries repeatedly before repairs finish, ballistic missiles enter serial production, Flamingo cruise missile reaches 3,000km.

1/
2026 pace: 800+ deep strikes. St Petersburg hit twice in one week in June — 800km from Ukraine's border.

A plume of black smoke above the port on June 3rd. Three days later, Ukraine blew up a nearby oil depot and naval base.

2/
Russia lost $18bn in fossil fuel revenue between June–December 2025. In the first four months of 2026 — 34% below what oil prices would normally generate.

3/
Read 8 tweets

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