Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Putin now has to manage what he never learned: a real economic breakdown.
He knows recruiting and special operations. Now the system’s “pants” are tearing, and he does not know how to stitch them back. 1/
Khodorkovsky: Now a critical amount of refinery capacity is under threat.
If Ukraine keeps striking and Russian air defense keeps missing about 20% of incoming drones and missiles, plants across European Russia, the Urals, and western Siberia will stay at risk. The only fix is a sharp cut in private fuel use.
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Khodorkovsky: Russia may not raise fuel prices on paper.
In practice, people will pay more to skip lines and get gasoline delivered, as in St. Petersburg. In a poorly regulated economy, this is how shortages spread. We saw the same thing at the end of the Soviet Union.
Khodorkovsky [former Russian oligarch brought down by Putin]: Civilian cars burn over half of Russia’s gasoline.
To keep freight and emergency services running, Russia must cut civilian fuel use by half or two-thirds. Prices will do the cutting. Ukraine scored a political win.1/
Khodorkovsky: Fuel crisis may grow much worse if Ukrainian strikes continue at today’s scale.
Omsk refinery shows almost all major Russian refineries are within range. Putin seems absent, and Mishustin has vanished into the fog.
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Khodorkovsky: Putin does not understand the scale of the problem or how to fix it.
He gave a critical national crisis to Novyk, who lacks the power to fire Sechin, Miller, or the head of Russian Railways. Novyk cannot solve it. Putin looks absent.
Kostyantynivka made the Kremlin's ruby-red stars and the glass on Lenin's mausoleum. Now Putin is grinding it into rubble to seize it.
The real prize is leverage over Trump, to argue holding Donbas is futile and Kyiv should concede — Christopher Miller, Financial Times. 1/
Kostyantynivka held about 70,000 people before the war. Around 2,000 remain, living without gas, water, electricity or medical help as food supplies run out.
They shelter in ruined blocks, and Russian drones have cut their movement to almost nothing. 2/
The city sits inside the kill zone, the drone-dominated strip of front where anything that moves is spotted and hit within minutes.
Ukraine now resupplies and evacuates by ground robots and on foot, with soldiers walking several miles in and out. 3/
For Putin, a ceasefire is a tool to win the war politically. Freeze the front, rebuild the army, break Ukraine's ties with Europe, then strike again.
He did exactly this after Minsk in 2014. — Michael Kimmage & Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.
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Putin's ceasefire playbook: call for elections in Ukraine, then use subversion to promote corruption narratives about Zelenskyy.
Offer endless circular negotiations. Encourage compliant Europeans to legitimize Russian-occupied territory.
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Putin would time his "peace" move to coincide with US midterm elections — boosting Trump-backed Republicans and diminishing prospects for a return to pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine policies in Washington.
A ceasefire lets Putin appear as a man of peace.
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Ukraine broke a 300-year rule. Armies won by centralizing weapons — standard parts, a few factories, crates to the front.
Kyiv inverted it via small workshops design a drone, the front reworks it, lessons feed back to industry. Update cycles as short as 3 weeks, — Charles Dainoff, Geoffrey Fain Williams, Robert Farley, FP. 1/
Ukrainian drones have largely frozen the front and let Kyiv hit Russian logistics deep in the rear. Against an enemy iterating just as fast, an older drone isn't inferior — it's useless. Whoever adapts quicker wins the microcycle. 2/
This ecosystem may spring from the weakness of Ukraine's central government. No central hub dictates designs. Firms deal straight with front-line units. The absence of control is the feature. 3/
Crimea was supposed to be Putin’s fortress: a military base, Black Sea launchpad, and imperial trophy.
Now its 2.5 million people face blackouts, water cuts, fuel shortages, dead cell service, broken transit, rising prices and a collapsed tourist season, — Politico. 1/
Ukraine is now targeting the routes that keep Russia’s forces in the south supplied. The aim is not just to hit Crimea, but to isolate it and weaken Moscow’s position across the southern front. 2/
Getting out has become harder too. Ukrainian drones have destroyed bridges and now patrol the land route through occupied southern Ukraine. In early June, more than 3,000 vehicles queued to leave via the Kerch bridge. 3/