Russia has not achieved its original political objectives. But it still fights, occupies substantial Ukrainian territory, and shows no intention of accepting terms that would mean defeat, — for Telegraph. 1/
Kyiv has stopped Russia’s main goals and damaged its economy and military. But Ukraine still depends heavily on Western money, weapons, technology, and air defense. 2/
Zaluzhnyi: This is no longer a war of swift manoeuvres. It is a war of attrition.
Tactical gains now come at enormous cost. Positions can be taken, but holding them, reinforcing them, and evacuating the wounded is harder under constant drone surveillance. 3/
A Russian ex-convict spent a decade in Ukraine under a fake identity, built weapons for the front, and married three women who never knew his real name.
Now Interpol wants him, and Ukraine may hand him over. His real name is Ruslan Puptaev, Babel. 1/
Born 1987 in Kyrgyzstan, raised in Russia’s Ulyanovsk region. Convicted twice — theft at 16, assault at 19.
Russian courts gave him 9 years. 2/
In prison he converted to Islam. Chechen and Dagestani inmates told him about Russian war crimes in their countries.
For the first time since the 2022 mobilisation, ordinary Russians are scared. Petrol is rationed and Ukrainian drones hit refineries far from the front.
55% now say people around them feel anxious, up from 40% a year ago. The war has reached everyone — The Economist. 1/
Drone attacks once hit only cities like Kursk and Belgorod. On July 6th Ukrainian drones struck Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, 2,500 km from the front.
The southbound Moscow trains that once carried families to the sea now run spookily empty, crowded with uniforms. 2/
Petrol is rationed across the country. Drivers queue two or three hours for a daily cap of 20 or 30 litres, and many stations have run dry.
Crimea and Novorossiysk banned retail petrol sales. Only officials, public services and fuel-connected businessmen may fill up. 3/
Stubb: Russia won't end this war from economic pain or battlefield losses — 1 dead Ukrainian to 8 Russians.
What changes it: Russian population turning against the war. Oil strikes, cancelled Crimea summer camps, internet shutdowns. Pressure forces ceasefire and negotiations. 1/
Stubb: US foreign policy is transactional right now — they'd say so themselves.
They sanctioned Rosneft earlier, hitting Russia hard. Now they're reversing that decision.
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Stubb: Worst case is a test of Article 5 — quite far away. NATO defends 1 billion people, never been attacked except on 9/11.
But when the war ends in Ukraine, threat level rises. We need European capabilities and American presence.
Volker, ex US-NATO Amb.: Zelenskyy has figured out how to deal with Trump.
By making clear that Ukraine wants a ceasefire and wants to end the war, he puts the spotlight on Putin, who doesn't. That gives Trump the best chance to pressure Russia. 1/
Volker: Europe needs Ukraine inside NATO. Russia is a threat to all of Europe.
Ukraine is already one of Europe's most capable countries in defending Europe, fighting Russia and producing the defence technology, industry and know-how everybody will need. 2/
Volker: Trump has realised Russia is weaker than he thought.
Russia can't defend its own airspace, is losing oil refining and export capacity, black smoke is rising over Moscow, while Ukraine is doing pretty well. Putin's argument is becoming less convincing. 3/