Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 18
Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.

They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/
Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.

Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/
Applebaum: Ukraine will soon be able to export its drone and defense technology. Right after the Iran conflict broke out, Zelenskyy was in the Middle East talking to Gulf state leaders.

Gulf states are sovereign countries — they can talk to whoever they want to talk to. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 18
Prof. Michael Clarke: This [US-Iran deal] is not a peace deal. It is an exchange of memoranda, basically an agreement to keep talking for 60 days under a ceasefire.

Trump is selling it as a breakthrough, but it is only a pathway toward a possible deal. 1/
Clarke: Iran may not sign on Trump’s timetable. Tehran has every reason to delay, embarrass him, and show it is not playing to his agenda.

Iran has a long memory for humiliating U.S. presidents through timing. 2/
Clarke: The hard issues are still unresolved: Hormuz, enriched uranium, nuclear limits, frozen assets, sanctions relief and Lebanon.

The key fight will be sequencing — what Iran gives first, and what it gets in return. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 18
Rutte: Ukraine is killing or seriously wounding 30,000–35,000 Russians a month. The front line is stable, Russian advances halted.

Russia has growing problems refilling the gaps in its armed forces, not just to advance, but to maintain the fight in Ukraine. 1/
Rutte: These numbers are staggering. 30,000–35,000 a month means Russia loses in 3 weeks what it lost in Afghanistan in 10 years in the 1980s.

In 5 weeks, Russia loses what America lost in Vietnam in 15 years. That's what Ukraine is inflicting on Russia's military right now. 2/
Rutte: We all want this war done. Zelenskyy is willing to tango — willing to get to the negotiating table.

But you need two to tango. And Vladimir Putin so far is not. Ukraine didn't ask for this war — they have to defend themselves, and they are extremely successful at it. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 17
Ukraine left the G7 with Trump backing oil sanctions on Russia instead of leaning on Kyiv.

Europe helps Trump stabilize his Iran deal and clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz.

This is transactional diplomacy — Politico. 1/ Image
G7 leaders arrived in France expecting a fight over Iran, Ukraine and the next NATO summit.

They left more upbeat after Trump signaled readiness to increase pressure on Putin and keep working with allies. 2/
The key result for Ukraine came after Trump’s 70-minute meeting with Zelenskyy and other leaders.

Trump said the U.S. would reimpose sanctions on Russia’s oil sector.
Trump: “Russia has to make a deal.” 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 17
Russia may have lost more than 70% of its combat-ready Tu-22M3 bombers since 2022.

Around 33–34 were combat-ready before the full-scale invasion. Today, only 9–10 may remain operational.

Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 in June 2025. — U24.

1/
Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya, Belaya and Dyagilevo airbases in June 2025.

Three more crashed in the Irkutsk region alone — in 2024, 2025, and now June 2026. In total, Russia may have lost or had damaged 24 of these bombers since 2022.

2/
Russia stopped producing the Tu-22 in any variant in 1993. No replacement program exists.

The spare parts base is so limited that even minor damage can lead to an aircraft being written off or cannibalized for parts.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 17
Timothy Snyder: The memory war is far more comfortable for Polish politicians than the real one.

They get to say: we're right, we're innocent. I know the history. But you start with what's happening now, not memory. Skip that, and you start from a falsehood.

1/ Image
Snyder: Treat Ukrainians as partners and allies — even when they make mistakes.

Remember that every day they lose people in this war, partly so that Poland can keep living normally.

2/
Snyder: Judging Zelenskyy's decision to name a unit after UPA without the context of nearly four and a half years of war would be a mistake.

This is the longest war of this century, longer than World War I — it stirs emotions the West struggles to understand.

3/
Read 13 tweets

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