Bolton: Ukraine now has the best army in Europe, better than any NATO member there except the U.S.
It has enormous combat experience and has developed drone and counter-drone technology that America should use, learn from, and take advantage of. 1/
Bolton: Ukrainians have brought Russia to a halt. Putin does not get serious about negotiations until Russian forces are really moving backward.
If you want to defeat aggression and tell others it is not in their interest, Ukraine is the model. 2/
Bolton: Ukrainians are a moral example for the world.
A free people, largely abandoned, confronted one of the world’s largest armies and refused to give in. Congress should be unabashedly pro-Ukraine — it is a tragedy America is not doing more. 3X
Bolton: Trump is driven mainly by gasoline prices, not any coherent analysis of U.S. strategic interests.
Iran poses nuclear, terrorist and world-economy extortion threats — and the only real answer is eliminating the regime. If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will do. 1/
Bolton: Open the Strait militarily, keep the blockade on Iran, do not let Iranian oil out, and get as much Arab oil into global markets as possible.
That would show the U.S. can secure commerce, ease the threat to the world economy, and keep starving Iran. 2/
Bolton: Iran’s missile caves and storage sites are being opened again. Since Tehran has been gracious enough to reopen them, that is the reason to go back in and finish the job.
Every day that passes makes opening Hormuz and suppressing Iran harder. 3/
Kellogg: Trump may not have anyone in Iran who can make hard decisions.
Khamenei is supposed to decide, but we have not seen him and do not know if he is alive or coherent. So who do you really talk to when the hard decisions are left to him? 1/
Kellogg: Iran is following its Mosaic plan: decentralizing the Revolutionary Guards so each unit commands its own area.
That is why boats are being sent into the Gulf. Trump is in their heads, but the regime still thinks it is winning — which is nuts. 2/
Kellogg: Trump has to keep military operations in his hand.
The U.S. has hammered Iran hard — sunk its navy and defeated most defensive systems — but as long as the theocratic leadership remains, it will fight with crossbows, rifles and rocks. 3/
Bolton: Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russia and destroy much of the Black Sea Fleet caught Moscow totally unprepared.
When Russians hear targets are hit near Moscow and at deep military bases, they see the war is not going according to plan. 1/
Bolton: Russia may be trying to justify new strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, but the battlefield is at least at a standstill — and Ukraine is beginning to make small territorial gains.
It may be Russian forces that are about to crack, not Ukraine’s. 2/
Bolton: Putin will not be serious about negotiations until Russian forces are in retreat.
As long as he is advancing, he can tell Russians this is about rebuilding the empire. Once he starts losing, pent-up discontent inside Russia can begin to surface. 3/
Moscow wants Europe and U.S. to think it can escalate war further — NYT.
Russia is threatening Kyiv with “sustained strikes” because the battlefield is slowing against them.
[Ukrainian drones hit oil infrastructure and Russian cities daily. Drones turns every advance into a meat grinder] 1/
Russia followed its biggest strikes on Kyiv with warnings about attacks on “decision-making centers” and calls for diplomats to leave the city — psychological warfare. 2/
The Kremlin claims its patience was “exhausted” after a strike on a dormitory in occupied Luhansk. Moscow is using the incident to justify tougher attacks and escalation rhetoric. 3/
Zelenskyy: Gripen fighters with Meteor missiles — 200km+ range.
We believe we can push Russian aircraft back far enough to stop their mass use of guided bombs against us.
1/
Zelenskyy: First Gripens arrive in 10 months. Pilots start training now.
The challenge: our pilots are already flying combat missions in Ukrainian skies. We need to pull them out to train — and that's never easy during a war.
2/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine has the world's greatest experience protecting lives, infrastructure, energy, schools.
No one else has this — we'll share it. Gripens, interceptor drones, EW, aviation, helicopters. Land, air, sea. That's a modern air defense shield.