Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 16
Graham: Everything Obama and Biden did was designed to keep Iran to a civilian nuclear program.

There is no way they can have 60% highly enriched uranium unless they cheat. Everything you did failed. You allowed Iran to become a threshold nuclear nation. 1/
Graham: Did Iran shoot missiles at Diego Garcia?

Caine: Yes, sir.

Graham: Under the protocols we had, were they supposed to be able to do that?

Caine: Without reviewing the fine print, I believe the answer is no.

Graham: No, they weren’t. You failed there. 2/
Graham: If Pakistan is allowing Iranian aircraft at its air bases, is that consistent with being a fair mediator?

Hegseth: I wouldn’t want to get in the middle of these negotiations.

Graham: I do want to get in the middle. Maybe we should look for another mediator. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 16
Blinken: The Iran nuclear deal was not perfect, but it boxed the program in with intrusive inspections and pushed breakout time past a year.

Trump tore it up and replaced it with nothing. Iran went from more than a year to a few weeks. 1/
Blinken: Trump is constrained by two things: markets and munitions. Oil, gas, fertilizer, helium — this has moved from prices to actual availability.

The reserves and ships already on the water are now a very thin shock absorber. 2/
Blinken: Trump may have misread Iran.

The U.S. did enormous damage, but Tehran saw the attacks as existential and started using tools it had held back — especially the Strait of Hormuz. That created a new normal. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 16
Cheap flights are ending. Spirit Airlines collapsed this month. Wizz Air short positions hit one-sixth of its shares.

Jet fuel doubled after the Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 40% of Europe's kerosene — Peter Campbell, Financial Times. 1/ Image
Andrew Lobbenberg, airlines analyst at Barclays: "We have seen lots of crises — 9/11, Covid. This is the next Covid."

He predicts bankruptcies, mergers, and faster retirement of old aircraft. 2/
Lufthansa cut 20,000 summer flights. It now routes Cape Town flights via Namibia to refuel.

Malaysia's AirAsia flew tankers to Vietnam so its jets could refuel before returning to Kuala Lumpur. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 16
Ukraine's FP-1/2 long-range drone now flies into Crimea carrying two FPV drones strapped to its wings.

One FPV is fitted with a flat antenna that matches a compact Starlink terminal — United24. 1/
Russian sources filmed the downed mothership in a bay near occupied Crimea. The wings still held two attached FPV drones.

Analysts identified the antenna on one of them as Starlink-grade. 2/
A Starlink link means the FPV does not depend on the mothership as a radio relay.

It can be dropped over the target and flown directly through satellite, while the FP-1/2 keeps going to its own warhead mission. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 16
Bolton: Leaving the Strait of Hormuz in Iran’s hands is unacceptable. It is an international waterway.

Iran cannot be allowed to impose hegemony over it — and the only way to stop that is militarily. 1/
Bolton: If Iran can turn control of Hormuz on and off like a light switch without paying a price, it will do it again.

Opening the strait militarily would remove Iran’s leverage and restore deterrence. 2/
Bolton: Iran’s military-industrial complex is severely damaged. The question is whether to finish the job.

If this regime survives, it rebuilds itself — and in five years America may be right back where it started. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 16
Putin and Zelenskyy are both losing faith in Trump’s peace talks — but for opposite reasons.

Russia believes it can still win militarily. Ukraine believes it no longer has to accept a bad deal under US pressure after stabilizing the front, FT. 1/ Image
Putin is shifting from negotiations back to territorial expansion.

Russian commanders told him they could seize all of Donbas by autumn, after which Moscow plans to raise demands further. 2/
Ukraine says the talks stalled months ago.

“There has been zero progress secured by the American side from Russia,” a Ukrainian official says. Kyiv believes Washington failed to pressure Moscow to moderate demands. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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