Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 23
Kellogg: No more Mr. Nice Guy. Keep tearing apart Iran economically, and if that means going to the home base of Kharg Island, that’s what we’ll do.

You are looking for domestic revolt. That is the only way the regime falls or stops causing us problems. 1/
Kellogg: Break the impasse by breaking off negotiations. We’re done with these guys. Take a harder line.

If it means taking Kharg Island and the other islands in the strait, so be it. We have Marines offshore and the 82nd Airborne ready to move immediately. 2/
Kellogg: As long as the IRGC is in charge under Vahidi, they have a problem.

It controls a 500,000-strong paramilitary force that keeps the civilian population down. The army is twice the size of the IRGC. You want to fragment them and force hard choices. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 23
Budanov: Russia’s bigger loss is reputational. War sanctions may end someday, but doubts about Russia as a reliable supplier will last much longer.

Deliveries through the Black Sea and even the Baltic face major disruption.

1/
Budanov: Striking one target now often requires many drones as effectiveness drops under EW and air defenses. It’s a constant race.

The next leap must be AI, new communications, and better control systems — current methods are near their limit.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 23
Zelenskyy: Orbán is a skilled and experienced political operator.

It’s a pity someone so strong chose Russia’s side. I believed he would lose because he built his campaign on hatred of one nation toward another.

1/
Zelenskyy: Ukraine can stop Shaheds and has built its own wartime systems, but we still lack Patriots or equivalents. If needed, we’ll produce them ourselves or with Europeans.

My top priority is finding more air defense, especially anti-ballistic systems.

2/
Zelenskyy: I feel like a parrot repeating the same answer — elections during war are not possible under the constitution.

They will happen when the war ends, and until then I will support and lead my country.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 23
Former Ukraine FM Kuleba: Trump will not change his stance on Ukraine. He rejected Zelenskyy’s offer to help in the Gulf for one reason: he doesn't want to owe anything to Ukraine

He would even see it as a humiliation to admit that he cannot fix Iran without Ukraine’s support 1/
Kuleba: Trump’s line is clear and consistent. He wants to press Ukraine into concessions in the form of a withdrawal from the rest of the Donbas.

The part of Donetsk region Ukraine still controls, and then use that concession as the basis for a ceasefire. 2/
Kuleba: We are facing great-power thinking. Trump sees Russia as a great power and believes smaller nations should subjugate themselves to stronger ones.

In his world, Ukraine resisting Russian demands is like Venezuela resisting American demands. That is how he sees politics. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 23
American planners estimated three days to break Serbia's will in 1999. It took 79. Trump's team thought Iran would fold quickly. Six weeks later, the war continues.

Same cultural blind spot, different president — The Economist. 1/ Image
A 2011 CIA paper on "Cultural Topography" used Kosovo as a case study.

Serbia's national day marks a 1389 defeat at Ottoman hands. Had analysts weighted Serbian honor, they would have warned: Serbia wins by standing up when the world expects it to fold. 2/
The same blind spot caused "terrible harms" in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Jeannie Johnson, professor at Utah State: "American commanders see foreign difficulties as problems to be solved or targets to be struck — rather than terrain to be navigated." 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 23
Browder: The €90 billion EU loan is existential for Ukraine. If that money had stayed blocked, Russia could have regained the advantage.

Orban’s defeat removed the veto and gave Ukraine what it needs to keep the government running, pay soldiers, and fund drone production. 1/
Browder: Orban’s defeat was not only decisive for Hungary and Ukraine.

It also sent a message to every pro-Russian politician around him: back Moscow and you can lose in a landslide. That warning now hangs over Fico, Babis, and others. 2/
Browder: Ukraine hit about 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity. They should hit 100% of it.

They should absolutely destroy Russia’s ability to generate hard currency for the war, because if Putin loses that money, he has no choice but to negotiate. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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