Putin let Assad fall in 2024. He will not let Iran fall.
Assad was a client whose survival depended on outside force. Iran generates costs for America without requiring Russian exposure. From the Kremlin's perspective, it is irreplaceable — Nicole Grajewski, NYT. 1/
The US war in Iran handed Moscow three things at once: higher oil prices, suspended sanctions on Russian crude, and fractured Western attention.
Peskov this week: "The Americans have a lot of other things to deal with, if you know what I mean." 2/
Iran held on for weeks, generating enormous costs to the global economy. Even if ceasefire holds, Iran is battered, poorer, more isolated.
If fighting resumes, the cumulative weight of strikes, sanctions, and internal unrest could tip Iran toward implosion. 3/
Russia sent 3 submarines to map and probe Britain's undersea cables and pipelines.
Two were secret Gugi seabed-warfare vessels, built to sabotage infrastructure that carries the country's data, gas, and electricity — Tom Sharpe, The Telegraph. 1/
One Akula-class nuclear attack boat. Two specialist subs from Gugi — Russia's classified Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research, separate from the regular navy.
They operated north of the UK for over a month. Mission: map critical underwater infrastructure for potential sabotage. 2/
Oct 2023: Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia — cut, supplies down for weeks. Nov 2024: two Baltic telecom cables severed. Christmas 2024: Estlink-2 power cable and 4 data lines offline.
Russia probes European seabed infrastructure year after year. 3/
A Ukrainian heavy bomber drone platoon on Pokrovsk front flies up to 30 sorties a day — delivering ammo to infantry, dropping bombs, mining enemy paths, even running recon.
Russia retaliates with up to 30 guided bombs daily on their positions — ArmyInform. 1/
Price, head sergeant: "We drop a 10kg bomb — the bushes disappear, and so does everyone hiding in them. FPV drones can't always reach them. We can."
"We also hit artillery positions — good targets, they damage our infantry and drone crews badly." 2/
Tiger: "Logistics is in bad shape. All access roads are heavily surveilled. We can lift a lot and carry far. Our priority is infantry — ammo, water, supplies."
"If we don't deliver what they need, the enemy reaches us." 3/
Bolton: JD Vance doesn't want to come back from this meeting [Iran negotiations] as the Neville Chamberlain of this conflict.
The ceasefire with Iran was a mistake. It gives the Iranians a breathing space. It’s not clear to me there's any prospect for progress. 1/
Bolton: I think given Trump's panic that we're very likely at the end of it, although people won't want to admit that. He just wants to be able to declare victory, which he's tried to do several times already erroneously. He'll find another way to declare victory and move on. 2/
Bolton: Iran was moving ahead with the nuclear program as fast as they could anyway. If regime change were really something Trump had wanted, he could have had an orderly process after the 12-day war. There's no evidence that happened. 3X
Europe’s defense is shifting from Brussels to a Germany-Poland core, with France and the UK supplying nuclear and expeditionary support.
As the US signals Europe must carry primary responsibility by 2027, while Russia could be ready to attack NATO within 5 years, FA. 1/
Germany becomes the backbone of European defense.
Berlin plans $750B in military spending over 4 years, now holds the world’s 4th-largest defense budget, and will set standards as US influence over European security declines. 2/
Poland becomes the frontline force.
Warsaw spends 4.5% of GDP on defense, rapidly buying artillery, armor, and air defense to slow any Russian advance, prioritizing speed and domestic production over European suppliers. 3/