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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 19

Macron: Trump arrived thinking Ukraine would lose and wanted a quick deal. At the Anchorage summit, he nearly handed over territory Ukraine still controls on the ground.

Then three things fundamentally changed his calculus and the shift has been decisive for the war. 1/

Macron: Every three months, Western and Russian analysts predict Ukraine will finally collapse.

Every three months, they are proven categorically wrong. Ukraine is resisting with stunning innovation and a military production capacity that no one anticipated. 2/

Macron: First, Trump saw Ukrainians are credible, determined fighters who defy every prediction.

Second, Europeans are finally taking real military responsibility — a coalition of willing armies will march in the July 14 parade. That signal reached Washington clearly. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 18

Applebaum: Putin has presented a fake image of Russia to the world. He talks about leading a traditional society

In reality, divorce is very high, abortion is common, very few Russians go to church and less than 5% have ever read a Bible. It's not a traditional culture at all 1/

Applebaum: Part of the European right and the American right have this imaginary Russia they use as a political symbol — not understanding it has no relationship to reality.

Most people who admire Russia haven't even been to Moscow or St. Petersburg, let alone the rest of the country. 2/

Applebaum: Putin went back into Soviet history books and re-imposed old plans.

The Soviet occupation of Ukraine in the 1930s and Czechoslovakia in the 1940s looks like Ukraine today — filtration camps, arrests of teachers, mayors, political leaders. It's the old playbook brought back. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 18

Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.

They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/

Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.

Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/

Applebaum: Ukraine will soon be able to export its drone and defense technology. Right after the Iran conflict broke out, Zelenskyy was in the Middle East talking to Gulf state leaders.

Gulf states are sovereign countries — they can talk to whoever they want to talk to. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 18

Applebaum: Putin doesn't want to end the war — he wants to win it. Winning still means the same thing it always meant: occupying Ukraine, changing the government, making Ukraine a satellite of Russia.

Donbas is where he'd start, but he's never given up the bigger idea. 1/

Applebaum: The only deal possible with Putin is to convince him he can't win — through military pressure and sanctions. Trump hasn't been willing to do that.

He's actually stopped aiding Ukraine militarily. He has no leverage over Russia and can't convince them of anything. 2/

Applebaum: Russia can't conquer Donbas, but that doesn't mean they couldn't use military force against a Baltic state — less protected now than Ukraine.

They may want to show the NATO guarantee doesn't work anymore. The risk of Russia using military power remains very real. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 18

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba: The Americans haven't left the negotiations — they've hit a dead end. No ability to break Ukraine, no desire to break Russia.

If Ukrainians keep winning on the battlefield, the question is how fast Americans will want to join the success story. 1/

Kuleba: Zelenskyy's letter to Russians — right move, right timing, right content. Like fertilizer in soil: it changes nothing in the moment.

But it sows seeds of doubt, hesitation, anger, and protest inside Russia. It was an investment in Russia's negative future. 2/

Kuleba: If we don't hit Russia, they'll still hit us. If we do hit them, they'll still hit us anyway. So it's better to hit.

Putin is on the escalation path. He won't answer Ukrainian successes with talks — only with: 'No, I'll prove it to you anyway.' 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 18

Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba: In Ukraine, there's not a single sane politician who builds their rating on anti-Polish slogans. Not one.

In Poland, many politicians build their rating on anti-Ukrainian slogans. That's the fundamental difference between our countries. 1/

Kuleba: The PiS party took the Volyn topic and weaponized it for decades. Films were made, historians wrote books, politicians talked about it nonstop.

You can't come out now and say 'let's forget it.' It's already living tissue of Polish society. It won't just go away. 2/

Kuleba: Poland became very strong and successful as a state — and that deserves recognition. But what does any strong state do?

It looks for where it can flex muscles, show it can bend others, and force concessions. That's exactly what's happening with Ukraine now. 3/