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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 9

Pompeo: Since October 7, the grip of Russia, Iran, and China on the Middle East has become much smaller.

Russia’s position in Damascus has collapsed, Hezbollah is badly diminished, Hamas is weaker, and Tehran is now in a much more difficult position. 1/

Pompeo: If we stop halfway, Iran gets another 30 to 50 years of extortion power.

This action was not only proper but necessary, because a nuclear-armed Iran with its conventional system intact would soon have made this kind of operation impossible. 2/

Pompeo: The IRGC is failing to meet payroll and bonuses, and the sanctions squeeze is choking the regime financially.

Systems like this can look incredibly strong until they suddenly crack. People said the same thing about the Soviet Union until the wall came down. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 9

Pompeo: For 40 years, our policy was to sell more stuff into China and hope China would become more like us. That was wrong.

Of all the hostile leaders I dealt with, the Chinese Communist Party is the one that can actually change the way we live. 1/

Pompeo: We are not going to fully decouple from China.

But anything tied to technology, security, pharmaceuticals, or biotech should be made in friendly countries, so we are never again left in a crisis without the things we actually need. 2/

Pompeo: The Chinese Communist Party is already inside the gates—in universities, labs, companies, and farmland deals.

My answer is reciprocity: if they would never let us do it in China, we should stop letting them do it here. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 9

“If Russia tried to seize Kyiv again, it would be the biggest bloodbath in world history. Two million drones would swarm over the tanks and burn them mercilessly.”

The Guardian: Madyar is Russia’s top assassination target after Zelenskyy. 1/

Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, leads the 414th brigade — the unit that has made Putin cancel tanks at this Saturday’s Victory Day parade for the first time in nearly 20 years. 2/

Brovdi acknowledges a “symbolic” attack on Red Square would generate headlines. But: “Why waste drones on the great wall? If you hit the energy sector or military — that’s the best strike, on the periphery.” 3/

Read 12 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

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May 9

Trump expected another Venezuela — days, a toppled regime, a victory lap.

Instead Iran mined Hormuz, shut 20% of global oil flows, and turned gas prices and polls into the real front.

Iran does not need to win militarily. Iran needs to make the exit humiliating — The Atlantic. 1/

Trump can sell almost any paper as a win. He cannot sell a war with no ending.

The White House is still waiting for Iran to answer a one page memorandum that extends a cease fire, not a treaty. 2/

Gas prices and polls do not wait. Republicans get the complaints at the pump, not in Situation Room briefings.

Trump wants the war to end before it wrecks a midterm year. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 9

Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.

Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/

Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.

Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/

Applebaum: Putin and the regime have become paranoid about Ukraine’s ability to hit Moscow and maybe even target leaders.

That is why the internet keeps going down in Moscow and other cities and why, around the May 9 parade, it is almost completely shut. 3/

Read 7 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 9

Former Russian PM Kasyanov: There is no real threat to Putin's life from inner circle, but Putin is increasing his security because problems are growing.

Attitudes toward the war and Putin’s regime are changing. 62% of Russians want to stop the war and move to negotiations.

1/

Kasyanov: Victory Day has always been a major date for Putin, and he has used it a lot. The parade sends a strong signal to the world.

I think we may hear him speak about ending the war soon, but only on his own terms. Still, the situation is moving and changing.

2/

Kasyanov: Ukraine has an advantage in drone attacks at all ranges. But the key now is transatlantic unity: Europe sees an aggressor and a victim.

Trump’s administration sees two guilty sides. Why should Ukraine make concessions?

3/