Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Mobilization must change because war itself changed.
Drones and robotic systems reshaped the battlefield, making old mass-army models obsolete. For the first time in history, robots entered war at scale.
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Zaluzhnyi: Russia tried to break the battlefield deadlock with new technology and tactics, but the result stayed the same: old-style offensives in a machine war only turn soldiers into expendable manpower that constantly needs replacement.
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Zaluzhnyi: After losing battlefield initiative, Ukraine had to react to Russia’s moves across the front, often at high cost.
Russia built a strategy around grinding down Ukrainian forces through massive losses, betting casualties would break Ukrainian society first.
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Kasparov: If Ukraine had the technological ability to bring down the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, it could become the end of Putin.
The regime rests on symbols. While Putin is in power, the war will not end. 1/
Kasparov: Ukraine’s strikes now hit the money and infrastructure that keep Putin in power.
Kremlin elites lose profits, and Putin fears pressure inside his own circle. Moscow wants talks and sanctions relief to pause, regroup, and stabilize the regime. 2X
Kasparov: Russia will lose territories after the war. The North Caucasus will likely break away first.
China already eyes the Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia — lands that belonged to China until 1860.
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Kasparov: Ukraine now hits the infrastructure that feeds Putin’s regime.
Oil, logistics, and industry keep the Kremlin elite rich. Putin can’t keep burning their money forever for a war that brings no victory.
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Kasparov: Europe still pretends it can support Ukraine without admitting it faces a direct threat from Russia
The Baltic states, Poland and Finland already prepare for possible Russian aggression. Many Western European leaders still react too cautiously to the scale of threat.3X
China built a system where the world’s second-largest economy runs through markets, but political power still flows through one man.
Xi Jinping made sure nobody inside the Communist Party can become a true No. 2, Deng Yuwen for Foreign Policy. 1/
Many outsiders now see Cai Qi as China’s de facto second-most powerful man because he controls Xi’s schedule, documents, meetings, information flow, and security.
But proximity to Xi is not the same as independent power. 2/
Cai acts more like a “grand steward of the inner court” than a successor or rival.
He executes Xi’s will, transmits orders, supervises implementation — but shows no sign of setting policy himself. 3/
The plan involved training 10,000 students from Iran, Tajikistan and Syria to operate drones that would sink American landing ships and destroy personnel — The Economist. 1/
A ten-page GRU proposal prepared for the Iranian side contained three elements: 5,000 short-range fiber-optic drones that cannot be jammed, an unspecified number of long-range drones with Starlink terminals, and operator training. 2/
Why fiber-optic drones are more dangerous than regular ones. A radio signal can be jammed. Fiber-optic cannot. The operator controls the drone through a thin wire that unspools behind it. The drone emits no radio signals that could help the enemy locate the operator. 3/
Trump created the opposite of the Russian dream world.
Putin wanted a world where Russia ignores rules, but America follows them. Trump gave him the opposite: an America that also ignores rules.
Russia doesn't benefit — Hanna Notte, Foreign Affairs.
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Russia relied on the UN Security Council veto as its key lever of global power. Trump is now dismantling the UN — withdrawing from 66 international bodies, withholding dues, stripping funding.
Russia's veto becomes worthless in a system that no longer matters.
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Trump established the Board of Peace — inviting Putin to join. Russia skipped the inaugural meeting. Putin's strategy required a functioning UN where Russia equals the US.