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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 30

Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.

Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/

Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.

Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/

Holland: Putin is fatally wounded by what's happening in Ukraine. That battle is going to be lost for him. But that makes him very dangerous, he might do something to distract from failure.

A village grab in Estonia or Lithuania testing Article 5. Or cutting North Sea cables. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 30

Bolton: Iran and North Korea got the same Chinese nuclear weapon designs from A.Q. Khan. Same enrichment technology. Both programs share the same basis from the very beginning.

North Korea built a reactor clone in Syria's desert for Iran. Israel found and destroyed it in 2007 1/

Bolton: Iran is oil-rich and has no nuclear weapons. North Korea is one of the poorest countries on earth — it has detonated six nuclear devices.

How hard is it to imagine Iran contracts out its nuclear work to North Korea, under some mountain we can't see through? 2/

Bolton on the Strait of Hormuz: If Iran is not stopped now, they will turn access to the strait on and off like a light switch for as far as the eye can see.

Freedom of the seas has been a cornerstone of US foreign policy since before we were a country. This is unacceptable. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 30

Estonian PM Michal: Russia has more men under arms now than at the start of the war. What happens when fighting stops?

They won't become teachers. They'll go to Europe, Asia, Africa. We had Wagner before and during the war. Do you want these people at home, in your country? 1/

Michal: If anyone thinks investing 5% of GDP in defense is easy, it's not. Takes a heavy toll on any government. But it has to be done.

Estonia is at 5.4% this year. Poland 5 to 6%. Latvia, Lithuania the same. We're showing that this is real money, real decisions, real steps. 2/

Michal: Europe used to think Russians were romantic people having tea from the samovar in furry hats, loving children.

Now they're killing their own and Ukrainians — civilians, women, children. Most European countries don't have this romantic attitude towards Russia anymore. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 29

Ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine, Taylor: While we weren't looking, Ukraine took the initiative. Taking more land back than Russia takes. More deep strikes into Russia than Russia fires into Ukraine.

Killing more Russians than Russia can recruit. That's the momentum shift. 1/

Taylor: Ukraine has cut off fuel and ammunition for the Russian military in Crimea. They're threatening the last connection — the Kerch Bridge — which Ukrainian drones can now take out.

They are the masters of the drones. And Crimea is being squeezed from every direction. 2/

Taylor: In 2014 when Russia first invaded, 97% of Ukraine's weapons came from abroad. They manufactured 3%. Today 70-80% of weapons on the battlefield are made in Ukraine.

Soviet heavy industry, including the missile industry, was in Ukraine. They draw on that expertise now. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 29

Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.

In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/

Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"

That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/

Hodges: Second — convoys can't move. Bridges into Crimea wrecked. Facilities on the peninsula destroyed. Crimea becoming untenable — not just for tourists, for the military.

Third — oil and gas exports to China, India dramatically reduced. Can't sustain the war economy. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 29

Ex-Ukrainian FM Prystaiko: Putin’s signal to his own people is: do not corner me, because I am dangerous and unpredictable.

But this signal is wearing out. Drones in Moscow and St. Petersburg show that the king is not dressed as well as he wants people to think.

1/

Prystaiko: From Poland’s point of view, Ukraine escalated. The problem is old; it is not about today’s Ukrainians or today’s government.

But Poland is strategically vital for our survival, and we still have not found a way to manage these risks and exit such crises.

2/

Prystaiko: Poland does not want radical escalation now. But if anti-Ukrainian moods help Nawrocki solve domestic problems and gain popularity, Poland may go another round.

Ukraine’s EU accession is not Poland’s priority; protecting its own market is.

3/