Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 3
Firepoint co-founder Shtilierman: Ukraine does not need 300 km ballistic missiles. Moscow is not 300 km from our border.

Russia is a monocentric state, with power concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg. That is why Ukraine is developing longer-range ballistic capabilities. 1/
Shtilierman: We produce Flamingo missiles as much as we are ordered to produce.

The capacity is there. The bottleneck is bureaucracy around engine exports in Europe and the U.S.

2/
Shtilierman: There are five Flamingo launches in open sources.

We never publish anything before the official General Staff report. Many missions happen and are never publicly reported.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Jul 3
Russia is planning an attack on Poland to test NATO, US warns.

The scenarios include missile and drone strikes on critical infrastructure or Russian troops crossing the border from Kaliningrad or Belarus, The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Russian troops could cross into Poland and claim they entered by mistake because of GPS failure.

Another cover story: a mission to recover a disabled military helicopter. 2/
Moscow expects Poland to negotiate instead of opening fire if Russian troops cross the border.

The Kremlin would demand that NATO suspend military aid to Ukraine before withdrawing. If Poland agrees, Russia enters NATO territory and leaves on its own terms. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 3
For four years, Putin tried to shield Russians from the war through silence and euphemisms.

Now drones hit Moscow, fuel shortages affect at least 56 regions.

Whatever officials do, they still avoid saying what is happening, — NYT. 1/ Image
The war is still officially a Special Military Operation.

Fuel shortages are blamed on “unscheduled maintenance at refineries.”

Military spending becomes “structural transformation of the economy.” Language is used as a shield. 2/
On June 18, Ukraine attacked Moscow with nearly 200 drones.

Putin said nothing for days.

When he finally spoke, he blamed the West and said the strikes were meant to “destabilize society.” 3/
Read 12 tweets
Jul 3
Fedorov: During the latest mass attack on Kyiv, Ukraine intercepted about 95% of Shaheds — around 600 were launched.

Against cruise missiles, the interception rate can also reach 80–90% when Ukraine has enough F-16s and enough missiles to cover the whole country.

1/
Fedorov: Ukraine is investing heavily in cheap missiles to prepare for winter and bad weather, when interceptor drones face limits.

During the main mass attack, about 75% of Shaheds were intercepted by interceptor drones.

2/
Fedorov: Ukraine continues to destroy 30,000–35,000 Russians a month — killed or seriously wounded.

Partners call this a unique statistic: in this war, drones make evacuation harder, so the share of killed is unusually high.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 2
Putin spent 10 minutes naming streets in Donetsk villages in a state TV interview — and described an encirclement near Rubtsi that no reliable source confirms exists.

There is no river called Stary Oskol in that region. — Simon Shuster, The Atlantic.

1/ Image
81% of Russians want the war to end "as early as tomorrow."

Those who want to fight until victory dropped to 9% — the lowest ever recorded by the Institute for Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia across 10 rounds of polling since 2022.

2/
For Russian soldiers sent to the front, the average life expectancy is around two to three weeks, according to one Russian military blogger.

Russia now loses at least 30,000 troops a month while offering recruits bonuses worth up to $80,000.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 2
Zelenskyy: We are thankful to the American team for transfer of anti ballistic missiles, but for today it is too slow.

We don’t know what Putin will do. We are asking President Trump and his team: we don’t need too many words. You see what does it mean when the packages come? 1/
Zelenskyy: Europe, the United States and many other countries live from election to election. That is understandable. But please, the priority must be saving lives. 2/
Zelenskyy: Kushner and Witkoff said they would come to Ukraine. They have to come to see, understand and explain to the President Trump what Russia has to do quickly: sit, negotiate and stop this war. I hope they will come. 3x
Read 5 tweets

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