Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 28
Trump’s administration told Congress it will not finish spending $400mn in approved Ukraine aid until fiscal 2029, the year Trump leaves office.

Reuters: Kyiv is critically low on weapons needed to defend against Russian missile attacks. 1/ Image
Pentagon letter: The funds would be obligated in fiscal 2026, but final delivery is estimated for the year ending Sept. 30, 2029.

Reuters source: Two months after the letter, the money still had not been disbursed or even put on contract. 2/
The $400mn plan includes $200mn for weapons, ammunition and explosives; $99.9mn for vehicles, spares and equipment; and $100mn for services such as transporting defense articles to Ukraine. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 28
Ukraine’s new Defence Minister Khmara: Ukraine’s deep strikes and drone campaigns must cost about 2% of the damage they cause Russia.

We can’t go punch for punch with Russia. We have to be asymmetric, interview with Laura Loomer.

1/ Image
Khmara: Don’t send someone where you’re not ready to go yourself.

Soldiers know I would never ask them to take a risk I would not take myself.

2/
Khmara: Future wars will be won by those who innovate faster, adapt faster, and save lives where they can.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Jul 28
Ukraine wants to end its reliance on the US-made Patriot and build a cheaper European system of its own, codenamed Freyja.

Kyiv wants a prototype ready by the first half of 2027, with Russian ballistic missiles now outpacing its dwindling supply of interceptors — Reuters. 1/ Image
Ukraine depends almost entirely on US-made Patriots, the only weapon in its arsenal that reliably downs Russian ballistic missiles flying at several times the speed of sound.

Patriot supplies keep slipping on political volatility, low stocks, and a long production cycle. 2/
Russia has stepped up its ballistic strikes on the capital Kyiv and the southern port hub of Odesa this month, firing dozens of missiles at both cities.

Ukraine failed to intercept most of them because it ran short on interceptors, the exact gap Freyja is built to close. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 28
Rutte: Ukraine is exceeding our expectations. Now Putin must end the bloodbath and come to the negotiating table.

President Trump plays a crucial role. He is the one Putin looks to for leadership, and he is providing that leadership.

1/
Rutte: Trump got Europe and Canada to boost defense spending toward U.S. levels, adding a quarter-trillion dollars.

Presidents since Eisenhower tried and failed to do this. On Ukraine, Trump and Zelenskyy will discuss more pressure on Putin to get him to the table.

2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Jul 28
McFaul: Ukraine plans to produce 7 million drones in 2026. That lets Ukraine strike deep inside Russia and changes the war.

Ukraine has cards now. Trump can help with more interceptors and restore military aid he cut to near zero.

1/
McFaul: Trump’s team is no longer pushing Zelenskyy to give up Donbas. Putin believed he got that promise in Alaska.

Zelenskyy resisted months of pressure, and Washington moved away from it. A deal without Donbas will be hard, but this shift matters.

2/
McFaul: “We’ll find out”? How does Trump not know? Maybe we should strengthen our intelligence community instead of gutting it.

And “I’ll ask Putin”? Seriously? Putin will never tell him the truth. Trump looks weak when he says that.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 28
Sikorski: Russia has sold 44 tonnes of gold, about half its reserve.

It’s a sign Moscow is running low on resources. This winter may be Putin's last chance to break Ukraine, so Europe's help decides if Ukraine wins. 1/
Sikorski: Rubio's call with Lavrov lasted 37 minutes. I don't see grounds to expect a breakthrough from that.

Real progress needs Putin himself to lower his ambitions about conquering Ukraine, and I don't believe that's happening. 2/
Sikorski: Russia keeps testing NATO's response threshold with provocations like drones crossing into member states' territory.

Naming these as deliberate tests actually lowers the odds Moscow repeats them, since a provocation everyone expects can't deliver its shock. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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