Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 27
Former NATO Military Committee Chair Bauer: I tried four times to reach out to Gerasimov [Russia’s top general] through letters. He said he was busy with the “special military operation.”

Later he said: you are part of NATO, NATO is part of the problem, I can’t talk to you.

1/
Bauer: We saw the Russian buildup for invasion of Ukraine start in spring 2021. They left vehicles and ammunition behind. In the end, 195,000 troops were around Ukraine.

We saw vehicles, hospitals, ammunition — then came the blood. I knew within 3 hours when the invasion would start.

2/
Bauer: NATO is not at war with Russia. There is no Article 5 situation.

But in cyber, one could say we are at war. In the information domain, we are at war. In space, we are at or very close to war. We are no longer at peace, but still in a gray zone.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 27
Browder: I know Putin pretty well. He's not a guy who comes with his tail between his legs. He's ready to commit the most horrific crimes to show he is a brutal, terrible adversary.

Just because he's getting hammered doesn't mean he's going to give up. Not him. 1/
Browder: My prediction — there will never be a peace treaty. Never any negotiation. It will wind down slowly, the way the Korean War wound down.

The Korean War is still technically going on right now. Nobody's firing, they have a demilitarized zone. It's an ongoing war. 2/
Browder: Ukraine will never give up more territory. Putin will never admit this was a mistake — loses power, goes to jail, probably gets killed.

Putin has incentive to carry on. Ukrainians have an existential incentive to survive. It ends along the current front lines. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 27
Browder: Trump has proven himself on Putin side at every step since returning to power. Cut all military aid. Voted with Russia at the UN against Ukrainian resolutions

His Oval Office outburst against Zelenskyy. His demand that Ukraine surrender territory Russia couldn't win 1/
Browder: He mutters ambiguous things, but he hasn't changed his position. Putin hasn't changed. Nothing has changed.

Except Ukraine's position on the battlefield. Ukraine's drones destroying Russian economic capability. Ukraine causing absolute havoc in Crimea. 2/
Browder: Those are things Trump has no control over. Those are the things changing the outcome here.

Why has he been on Putin's side? I have my ideas. Many people I know have their ideas. I won't speculate on air. But it would be completely unrealistic to think he's changed. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 27
Polish FM Sikorski: Our response to Ukraine naming a unit after UPA heroes was disproportionate.

It personally humiliated Ukraine's president. If President Nawrocki had asked me, I'd have advised differently, Tvn24. 1/
Sikorski: Nawrocki essentially deprived himself of the ability to talk with the president of a country at war.

When Zelenskyy got the soldiers' request, the response should've been: fine, UPA fought the Soviets, but it also killed Poles — pick a better name. TVN24.

2/
Sikorski: An equivalent move would have been naming Jasionka airport "Airport of UPA Victims." That would have settled the score. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 27
Ukraine fields Europe's only million-strong, combat-tested army and its fastest-moving drone industry.

The question is whether Europe can credibly defend itself without Ukraine. It cannot, writes Aliona Hlivco in Kyiv Independent. 1/ Image
Ukraine has developed Europe’s most combat-experienced military, one of the world’s most innovative defense-tech sectors, and a new doctrine of warfare.

From battlefield drones to AI targeting, Ukraine is pioneering capabilities NATO and EU states are only starting to grasp. 2/
The war has transformed Ukraine from a consumer of European security to a net provider of it.

Brussels is increasingly discussing how Ukraine can integrate into Europe’s political and security structures before full EU membership is completed. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 26
Russia may be preparing a provocation in the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO, The Guardian.

Putin wants to see whether the US would defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Ukraine's strikes reach Moscow and St Petersburg, and Russia wants to hit back somewhere it can. 1/ Image
Latvian intelligence: We see indications that Russia prepares military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.

Russia cannot open a second front. It may use hybrid actions — missiles, drones — to signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or face your own problems. 2/
Putin may test US support for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in a desperate effort to throw the dice as Russia struggles in Ukraine.

Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the Chatham House: Moscow will seek horizontal escalation or do something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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