Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 30
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Zaluzhnyi: The old world order didn't enter turbulence. It no longer exists

Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, Venezuela and now the Middle East all show the same thing: rules exist on paper, but there is no force to enforce them. 1/
Zaluzhnyi: If any world order still exists, it is the order of the strong.

America is now telling Europe it is no longer the guarantor of European security and that Europe’s security is now in Europe’s own hands. That alone shows the old order is over. 2/
Zaluzhnyi: Whether this is already a third world war, historians will decide later.

But as witnesses, we can see an unfinished war in Ukraine, an unfinished war in the Middle East, and no mechanism able to prevent a third, fourth, or fifth war from breaking out. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 30
Yelizarov, founder of drone battalion that destroyed $14B worth of Russian equipment: Risk of tactical nuclear use is real. Partners must define a response in advance.

If Ukraine raises efficiency and enemy losses, it could demoralize Russia and enable a counteroffensive.

1/
Yelizarov: Russia faces manpower shortages. Ukraine could inflict more losses, but targets are limited.

Current Russian losses are about 30–35k per month. If Russia pushes harder, losses rise; if it slows down, they stay around that level.

2/
Yelizarov: Ukraine lost drone advantage. In 2022–23 we stopped Russia and stabilized the front, but didn’t retake territory.

With faster adaptation, we could have. That window is gone.

3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 30
Apolitical Russians are starting to feel the war.

Influencer Victoria Bonya[13m followers] urged Putin to “face the truth”: floods in Dagestan, oil spills on the Black Sea coast, internet blackouts and cattle culls in Siberia.

Five days later: 30 million views, The Economist.1/ Image
Bonya is not an opposition politician or activist. She lives near Monaco and sells vegan cosmetics and clothing.

But she addressed Putin: "People are afraid of you, bloggers are afraid, artists are afraid, governors are afraid. But people should not be afraid of their president. I am not afraid." 2/
Her video is not a call to revolutio, but the reaction to it is more telling than its content. Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party, told deputies that the video should be taken seriously if the Kremlin wants to avoid another Bolshevik revolution. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 30
Keane: Three weeks into a ceasefire, a deal acceptable to Trump still looks far away.

The reason is simple: the Iranians do not really want a deal. They are playing for time, betting political and economic pressure on Trump will force concessions or make him walk away. 1/
Keane: Keep the blockade, but go back to military operations. When the ceasefire began, about two weeks of assigned objectives still remained.

Central Command has doubled its capability, Israel has replenished munitions, and the next campaign can be far more aggressive. 2/
Keane: Some will argue the blockade alone can break Tehran. Trump rejects that. The regime’s only objective is to survive and stay in power.

Economic collapse, blackouts, gas lines, civilian suffering — none of that will make it give in. That is exactly who they are. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 30
Zelenskyy: Ukraine is opening exports of drones, missiles, ammunition and combat software.

The format is called Drone Deals — special intergovernmental agreements on the production and supply of Ukrainian weapons to partners. 1/ Image
Zelenskyy: How it works: first an intergovernmental agreement is signed on the basis of reciprocity, defining the framework for cooperation.

Then work begins at the level of state institutions and manufacturers. Bureaucratic procedures are simplified but export controls are maintained. 2/
Zelenskyy: The main condition: Ukrainian military takes the required volume of weapons first. Only the surplus beyond the state order goes to export.

Production capacity surplus for some types of weapons has already reached 50%. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Apr 30
NATO is trying to rearm for war with Russia — but after 30 years of neglect, there’s nothing to buy.

Wait times for tanks, jets, and Patriot systems stretch up to 7 years, even as €800B sits ready to be spent, Times. 1/ Image
Money is no longer the problem — production is.

“We know what we need to buy, but we can’t buy it because there are empty shelves,” NATO’s former top military officer says. 2/
Supply chains depend on geopolitical rivals.

China controls ~60% of rare earth mining and >90% of processing — materials essential for weapons, electronics, and defense systems. 3/
Read 8 tweets

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