Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 3
Applebaum: Trump clearly did not expect the Iran war to last this long. He seems to have imagined it would be easy.

If people in the room told him otherwise, he ignored them. He knows very little about Iran and even seemed surprised by Hormuz and Iranian strikes. 1/
Applebaum: People around the world now read news from Washington by first asking whether it is real.

Trump helped create that post-reality world by nurturing conspiracy theories and undermining trust in media. That is a classic authoritarian tactic. 2/
Applebaum: This is a war Trump does not want to think about.

He keeps looking for somebody else to blame and even decided to blame Europeans, who did not start the war, were not consulted about it, and have very little ability to end it. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 3
The US, EU, Turkey and China all now compete with Russia for control over the Caucasus.

Armenia and Azerbaijan just ended a decades-long war, and that peace opened new energy and trade routes through the narrow strip linking Europe and Asia. — Bloomberg.

1/ Image
The US secured exclusive rights to develop the TRIPP corridor — a rail and road route across Armenia's south connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan.

The agreement extends to oil and gas pipelines and fiber optic networks for 99 years.

2/
The EU plans to strike a connectivity partnership with Armenia — a potential funding package of up to €2.5 billion.

The first-ever EU-Armenia summit takes place Tuesday. Armenia applied for EU membership last year.

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 3
A group of five Ukrainian hackers tricked 2500 Russians into revealing their location — The Times.

They created a bot that posed as a group of cybercriminals. Russians asked to add their Starlinks to the database as Ukrainian. In exchange, they gave their crypto wallet.

1/
“Fucking Ukrainians, you are liars! Always find a way to take money. You are worse then Jews” — a Russian soldier after he was told that he was scammed by Ukrainian military.

After getting the wallet, the hacker group always revealed themselves to demmoralize Russians.

2/
Ukrainian hacker: Sometimes we create images of girls with AI and pretend to be them while talking to Russians on the frontline and recieve information from them.

This group also gained access to the location of Russian arms factories which were struck later.

3X
Read 5 tweets
May 3
Kellogg: The Ukrainians have fought brilliantly. Since 2014, they have lost only about 1% of their land.

If Russia were really winning, it would be across the Dnipro, in Kharkiv, in Kyiv. It is not. My message to Moscow is simple: you are not winning, you are losing. 1/
Kellogg: Putin has a problem of his own making. Russia has taken roughly 1.2 to 1.4 million dead and wounded.

The Soviets left Afghanistan after losing only 18,000. And yet Moscow still cannot take the rest of Donbas from fortified Ukrainian positions. 2/
Kellogg: This is a European issue, and Europe needs to solve it. If Ukraine gives up defensible terrain in Donbas, it opens the heartland and Kyiv.

So Russia should stop pretending it can take the rest and start negotiating around what it can actually hold. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 3
Kellogg: The [Hormuz] blockade was a brilliant move, but I think it has to go further.

We need to put the regime itself at risk, put the people running it one step from death, and make clear this is no longer just about Hormuz. Iran’s national survival is now at stake. 1/
Kellogg: I would go to Kharg Island or the Gulf islands and open the waterway. Then you have real leverage.

It stops being a negotiation over shipping lanes and becomes a negotiation over regime survival, with pressure placed directly on the Guards and the leadership. 2/
Kellogg: I don’t think there is a real negotiating partner left. The foreign minister is the face, but the shots are being called by the Revolutionary Guards.

The supreme leader is in hiding, the government is fractured, and the men with the guns are now effectively in charge 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 3
Pompeo: There is no such thing as a moderate Iranian leader. They are all radicals.

If they appear to surrender, do not fall for it. For us it will look like surrender. For them it will look like continuation. 1/
Pompeo: We are already taking military action.

The US Navy, Space Command, and others are enforcing a blockade to stop Iran from rearming and resupplying not only its nuclear capabilities, but its conventional forces too. The blockade has proven effective. 2/
Pompeo: If we withdraw our forces today or end the blockade, it does not reopen Hormuz.

It means Iran would control the world’s energy supply for years to come. That is why this cannot end with half-measures. We have to stay the course. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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