Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

• • •

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 22
Rishi Sunak: At NATO’s Hedgehog 2025 exercise, Ukrainians exposed how ill-prepared western forces are for modern war.

Germany signed a deal with Kyiv for Ukrainians to train its troops. We must change how we plan, procure and practise war - The Times. 1/ Image
Sunak: Ukraine went from 800,000 drones in 2023 to well over 4 million last year, more than all of NATO combined.

Around 10,000 drones a day are now used on the battlefield, and many are obsolete within three months. 2/
Sunak: Ukraine, without a navy, pushed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet back to port using maritime drones.

Kyiv reopened its grain corridor and exports now exceed pre-2022 levels, bringing in cash for the war effort, Zelenskyy told me. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 22
Bill Browder: War in Ukraine is now only about Putin’s personal survival.

He needs the war to stay in power, and he needs to stay in power to stay alive. The destruction of Russia is unparalleled, but he cannot stop. If he stops, he loses everything. 1/
Browder: Putin is a historic liar, but he’s honest about one thing.

He believes Ukraine should not exist as a sovereign state. He hasn’t deviated from that for a minute. He doesn’t want compromise. He wants total and absolute victory. 2/
Browder: Peace talks create the appearance of negotiation so Putin can keep fighting and avoid sanctions.

He can tell Trump: you can’t upset delicate negotiations. That is the main intention behind this process. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 21
DW: Yana joined Ukrainian army last year. Nastia signed up in 2023.

“I’m already used to shelling. If something is flying, I know what to do. I’m not in such a panic. I can calm some guys sitting next to me, calm down, everything is fine, it will fly by.” 1/
DW: Women face many challenges in the army, even criticism about their appearance.

“Although we serve, we’re also women. We want to be well-groomed, beautiful. Why do they care? It’s upsetting that men who would never come here write this.” 2/
DW: Everybody makes a difference and women play an important role in Ukrainian military. There are around 70,000 women, about 8% of the armed forces, and around 5,000 on the front line. Support roles free up others to take on frontline roles. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
FT: Russia’s total losses estimated at 325,000 killed, with 30,000-35,000 soldiers killed or seriously wounded every month.

Russia’s army is advancing slower than during the Battle of the Somme, while suffering its heaviest losses in 4 years of full-scale war. 1/ Image
Russian offensives now move 15-70 meters per day on key axes. That pace is slower than most wars of the last 100 years and reflects sustained attrition. 2/
Ukraine’s Commander-in-chief Syrskyi: Russia recruits 35,000 men per month, but 90% of new recruits replace dead or wounded soldiers, not expand combat units.

Force size stagnates while losses mount. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
Kremlin is promising $12T worth of deals to Trump administration in return for sanctions relief.

Zelenskyy: “Russia has already promised these deals. One Washington insider says a package has already been agreed on” — The Economist. 1/ Image
Before Putin met Trump in August, a note was drafted for Russia's National Security Council explaining how to sell "the Greatest Deal" to Trump.

Since April, Dmitriev, who runs a Russian state fund, has met Witkoff at least 9 times. 2/
Russia is offering Arctic oil, rare-earth mines, nuclear data center, Bering tunnel.

Individuals close to Trump family have been in talks to acquire stakes in Russian energy assets. Putin offered to return $5B seized from ExxonMobil. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Feb 21
Soldiers may lead a revolution in Russia after the war ends.

James Rogers for Times: When hundreds of thousands of russian soldiers go home, they may find no clear jobs and become a disruptive force.

We’ve seen the same: defeat to Japan in 1905, and revolution after WWI.
1/
Rogers: Putin still believes he’s winning.

The war was supposed to end in days. Russian soldiers carried dress uniforms, expecting a victory parade.

Now it’s hard for him to change course. The economy is on a war footing. If that engine stops, serious problems could hit.

2/
Rogers: There is will on both sides to end the war, but the deal breaks on territory.

Ukraine is asked to give up land defended at high cost. That won’t fly.

Putin annexed territories he doesn’t fully control — and still claims them as russia.”

3X
Read 4 tweets

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