Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 10
“The only thing worse than no tanks in Red Square are burning tanks in Red Square.”

A European diplomat in Moscow captures how fast Putin’s authority is collapsing inside Russia, writes Mark Galeotti in The Times. 1/ Image
For the first time in decades Putin cancelled armored vehicles from Saturday’s Victory Day parade. Moscow is ringed with Pantsir-S missile launchers on rooftops, electronic warfare stations and drone jammers. 2/
The mere risk of an attack changed Putin’s plans. There is no evidence Kyiv planned a strike on the parade — but that did not matter. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 10
Patriot batteries guard the runway at Rzeszów airport — this small regional airfield 55 miles from Ukraine became the main hub for military aid to Kyiv.

Up to 40 cargo flights per day. Wounded soldiers treated here before flying to European hospitals — El País. 1/ Image
On February 24, 2022 Ukraine closed its airspace. Rzeszów went from 10-12 commercial flights per day to 20-40 large cargo planes daily — Hercules, Boeing 747s, Antonov An-124s from around the world. 2/
The airport had 300 staff. It now has 550. Fuel consumption jumped from 100,000 liters per week to 500,000-600,000 liters per day. Lines of trucks stretched endlessly. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 10
Fiona Hill: We are in a realm of magical and wishful thinking.

Iran is another personalized standoff between Trump and whoever his counterparts are, with each side trying to show who has the edge. Everyone else is watching this spectacle with real alarm. 1/
Hill: It will be very hard for any other state to corral Trump into a negotiation track.

This is all about how Trump thinks he is being viewed on the world stage: whether he looks strong, in control, and able to impose his will. 2/
Hill: Trump does not think about consulting allies because he does not think of them as allies. They are supplicants.

He sees them as subcontractors in his project, not partners in a larger enterprise. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 10
Kasparov: America is no longer the rock people knew. For dissidents it was a beacon; for everyone else, a force to reckon with.

Today all bets are off. The world built around US military, economic and political power is over, and America’s role will be reconsidered. 1/
Kasparov: NATO is dead. It is not just irrelevant; it refused to take part in the war it was built for.

Russia was the original threat, and when the real challenge to European security came from Russia, NATO waffled, ducked, and categorically refused to join. 2/
Kasparov: Europe is now building defense plans without America. Once Europeans erase old plans that included the US and build new ones, why bring America back?

America lost its reputation, and the geopolitical damage will be felt for years, maybe decades. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 9
Kellogg: Iran has two options. A deal written with disappearing ink, or military operations continue.

They use a mosaic defense, decentralizing command and control across 31 districts. We do not really know who is in control, so keep eliminating the Revolutionary Guards. 1/
Kellogg: I strongly advocate going after Kharg Island and putting a provisional government in charge.

There are Iranian opposition groups that could lead. Otherwise Tehran will keep doing what is in its playbook: talk, fight, talk again, and fight again. 2/
Kellogg: I do not see this ending soon unless we change the game plan and take mosaic warfare away from Iran’s advantage.

They will keep throwing mosquito boats and small fleets at us. One day they could get lucky, and we lose a tanker or a warship. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 9
Pompeo: Since October 7, the grip of Russia, Iran, and China on the Middle East has become much smaller.

Russia’s position in Damascus has collapsed, Hezbollah is badly diminished, Hamas is weaker, and Tehran is now in a much more difficult position. 1/
Pompeo: If we stop halfway, Iran gets another 30 to 50 years of extortion power.

This action was not only proper but necessary, because a nuclear-armed Iran with its conventional system intact would soon have made this kind of operation impossible. 2/
Pompeo: The IRGC is failing to meet payroll and bonuses, and the sanctions squeeze is choking the regime financially.

Systems like this can look incredibly strong until they suddenly crack. People said the same thing about the Soviet Union until the wall came down. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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