Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 31
Kasparov: Ukraine performed a historical miracle.

The coming funeral of the Russian Empire, which I believe is not far away, is the result of the heroism of the Ukrainian people and, yes, of Zelenskyy’s political leadership. 1/
Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war. It is an imperial war, the logical continuation of Russian imperial history.

Without Ukraine there is no Russian Empire, and Putin understands that with his imperial sixth sense. 2/
Kasparov: Wars end only when the causes that created them are eliminated.

The cause here is Russia’s imperial structure. Until that structure is broken, the war will not truly end, because the empire will keep trying to return. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 31
Kasparov: Lavrov’s threat to foreign diplomats is not normal diplomacy. It shows Russia has problems and is trying to solve them with threats and bluff.

Bluff has always been Putin’s weapon: weak cards, higher stakes, and the hope that Europe’s hands will shake. 1/
Kasparov: Europe still cannot say the magic formula: Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.

Everyone understands it behind the scenes, but politically they still refuse to define the strategic goal of the war, so they keep maneuvering around the real issue. 2/
Kasparov: The real meaning of these “negotiations” is simple: sell part of Ukraine’s territory to buy Europe a pause.

That is the essence. Nothing else can really be negotiated while Putin’s goals remain unchanged and Russia still wants empire. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 31
Kasparov: The attack on Kyiv looks less like a demonstration of strength than an outlet for Putin’s anger. The situation is turning against him.

Even inside his information vacuum, reality is breaking through: the war is no longer moving west, it is moving east. 1/
Kasparov: Putin’s trip to China was likely unpleasant. The Power of Siberia 2 deal was not signed.

That suggests Xi is diversifying and may be developing doubts about Putin’s ability not only to control the situation, but to hold on at all. 2/
Kasparov: Russian Z-war bloggers, still full of patriotism and wanting Russia to win, are describing a catastrophic picture at the front.

They admit the war is at least stuck and that the situation for Moscow may soon become far worse. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 30
Fukuyama: Ukrainians have systematically taken out Russian air defenses in Crimea with medium range drones and missiles. The peninsula depends on a narrow land route through the isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine now reportedly controls the isthmus from the air and has repeatedly attacked the bridge. 1/
Fukuyama: It would not be surprising if Russia decided within the next year that its position in Crimea was untenable and began withdrawing forces, just as it has already withdrawn much of its Black Sea Fleet. Such a withdrawal would be an enormous political defeat for Putin. 2X
Source:

Read 4 tweets
May 30
That’s quite clear now that Europe is preparing for a future without the US. Where America is no longer the center of the Western alliance.

Trump spent years demanding loyalty from allies. Instead, Europe is slowly building systems designed to function without Washington, FP. 1/ Image
At first, European leaders tried to keep Trump happy.

UK PM Starmer offered an unprecedented second state visit. NATO Chief Rutte called Trump “daddy.” European governments boosted defense spending and increased support for Ukraine. 2/
Problem is that concessions didn’t buy predictability.

The US withdrew 5,000 troops from Germany, imposed tariffs on allies, and excluded European governments from key decisions during operations against Iran. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 30
Ukraine received 16 Swedish Gripen fighters and wants to purchase 20 more of the latest model by 2030.

They're cheaper to operate than F-16s, can take off from a regular road and carry guided bombs — Suspilne. 1/ Image
Saab and Volvo developed the Gripen in the 1980s for the Swedish military. Sweden lived next to the USSR and understood that fixed infrastructure would be the first target. 2/
So they built a jet that takes off from a highway, gets serviced in a forest without a hangar and is ready to fly in minutes. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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