Military historian Phillips O’Brien: There have been no U.S. peace efforts in Ukraine.
There have been efforts to get Putin a very good deal, forcing Ukrainians to give up more territory and people. That is not peace. That is Washington trying to deliver Putin a success. 1/
O’Brien: Trump believed Ukraine had no cards and that he could bully Kyiv into giving Putin a great deal.
He completely underestimated Ukrainian resilience, Ukraine’s own capabilities, and its willingness to fight. That wrongfooted him. 2/
O’Brien: The key strategic development is that the United States changed sides. Trump is closer to Putin than to Ukraine.
But Ukraine fought well anyway, shifted the balance of the war, and learned the U.S. is not to be feared the way it once thought. 3/
658 deep strikes Ukraine conducted against Russia in 2025. Twice the 2022–2024 total.
The Economist: Small drones hit ports and refineries repeatedly before repairs finish, ballistic missiles enter serial production, Flamingo cruise missile reaches 3,000km.
1/
2026 pace: 800+ deep strikes. St Petersburg hit twice in one week in June — 800km from Ukraine's border.
A plume of black smoke above the port on June 3rd. Three days later, Ukraine blew up a nearby oil depot and naval base.
2/
Russia lost $18bn in fossil fuel revenue between June–December 2025. In the first four months of 2026 — 34% below what oil prices would normally generate.
3/
Russia shut down part of the secret surveillance system guarding Putin and his inner circle.
Engineers switched it back on only after sealing it off from the internet.
Russia acted after Israel used AI on Iranian cameras to find and kill Khamenei — FT. 1/
Israeli intelligence harvested footage from thousands of Iranian traffic cameras to pin down a February 28 meeting of Ayatollah Khamenei and his closest aides. Several top security officials died in the opening strike of the US-Israel war.
AI parsed millions of hours of video to isolate the targets from the crowd. 2/
Alexander Bortnikov, FSB director, told regional security chiefs on May 26 that Russia's own surveillance apparatus had turned into a weakness its enemies could exploit.
Bortnikov: The victims' locations were identified, in part, through software backdoors in Tehran's video surveillance systems. 3/
Young Ukrainians are coming back to Ukraine. Hanna could have built a career in Spain. She chose to study at the Kyiv School of Economics. 0/
Each KSE Come Back Home grant is a chance to bring back to Ukraine one more future entrepreneur, researcher, or engineer. 1/
After the full scale invasion, Hanna left for Spain. She worked, volunteered, and supported Ukrainian initiatives from abroad.
Then she came back, not for nostalgia, but for agency. She wanted to live where decisions and responsibility are real. 2/
The tank is no longer the king of the battlefield.
In Finland, 18 miles from Russia, NATO watched Leopard 2 tanks get “destroyed” by anti-tank teams, drones and artillery in a simulated war game.
This is Ukraine’s lesson becoming NATO doctrine — The Telegraph. 1/
Russia has lost 11,974 tanks and almost 25,000 armored vehicles. Ukraine has lost around 5,700 tanks and armored vehicles to drones, mines and missiles.
Armor still matters, but alone it dies fast. 2/
In Ukraine, drones reportedly account for more than 90% of battlefield casualties, mostly tanks and armored vehicles.
A cheap drone can now find, track and help destroy a platform worth millions. 3/