Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 1
Hodges: Not the time to take the foot off the gas on Crimea. Pour it on.

The West should help isolate Crimea — knock out bridges, ferries, all ways in and out, make it unusable for Russian forces. Airfields, air defense systems, logistics sites — targeted relentlessly. 1/
Hodges: I was criticized for being too optimistic about Crimea. I was so sure the US and UK would provide what Ukraine needed.

I was wrong — we did not support Ukraine as we should. So here we are now. Ukraine without too much help from us is doing this on their own. 2/
Hodges: When you combine the strategic destruction of oil and gas infrastructure, Russia can't pay for this anymore, with the operational destruction of logistics, at some point Russia will seriously consider stopping.

They can't sustain it at this level deep into next year. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 1
Hodges: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, I think that's an absolute fairy tale.

None of the oligarchs are suffering. Nobody in the upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg is going to suffer. These are people as spoiled as anybody else. 1/
Hodges: The 90% that are not upper class — they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better.

People counting on Russians being able to just endure more and more are misreading the actual situation. People are starting to wonder what the hell's going on. 2/
Hodges: What will really be interesting is whether the Kremlin has to mobilize the population of Moscow or St. Petersburg.

If all the privileged young people suddenly find themselves putting on that green uniform of the Russian army, enthusiasm for this war will really drop. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 30
Russian forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Bucha during a month of occupation in 2022, leaving bodies in the streets and a mass grave by the church.

What happened there is why Ukrainians refuse to give up occupied land in any peace deal — Dominic Pino, Washington Post. 1/ Image
Ukraine retook Bucha so fast that Russian forces could not cover their tracks. The town looks like an American suburb, with stores, sidewalks, and a shopping mall.
It keeps a monument bearing the names of the murdered, where such a town should mourn fallen soldiers. 2/
Russia's account keeps shifting, from denying the murders happened to calling them a false-flag. Ukraine calls it genocide.
Pino has walked Dachau, a site built for genocide. Bucha is different. People there live ordinary lives, send kids to school, and watch TV before bed. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 30
Syrskyi: Putin ordered to calculate options for offensive operations, including from Belarus, to seize Kyiv and other territories.

I do not think Belarus’s leadership will now dare give its territory as a launchpad, but we account for this scenario.

1/
Syrskyi: Russia is testing forced contract signing in Penza region. Mobile groups gather men and force them to sign.

Moscow is adapting this model to spread it across Russia. They also recruit prisoners, people under criminal cases, and mercenaries to grow the army.

2/
Syrskyi: Russia’s grouping has not decreased: 722,000 troops with operational reserve.

But active assault directions fell from 13 to 7, with 4 main ones. Our strikes on logistics have cut Russia’s offensive potential. Enemy activity is down by about one-third.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 30
16-year-old Tihran Ohannisian moments before his death: "That's it, it's death, guys. Goodbye. Glory to Ukraine."

Russia killed him and his classmate Mykyta Khanhanov after they attacked Russian personnel in occupied Berdyansk on June 24, 2023 — United24.
1/
Russian soldiers had detained Tihran in September 2022, beat him in front of his grandmother, and tortured him with electric shocks for days.

Both boys remained under surveillance for months, formally charged with plotting to sabotage a railway, facing up to 20 years in prison.
2/
On June 24, 2023, the boys attacked Russian personnel on Berdyansk's seafront. Killed one soldier and one collaborator.

Russian forces killed Tihran and Mykyta shortly after. No attempt was made to detain them alive.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 30
Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.

Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/
Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.

Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/
Holland: Putin is fatally wounded by what's happening in Ukraine. That battle is going to be lost for him. But that makes him very dangerous, he might do something to distract from failure.

A village grab in Estonia or Lithuania testing Article 5. Or cutting North Sea cables. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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