Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 29
Ex-US Ambassador to Ukraine, Taylor: While we weren't looking, Ukraine took the initiative. Taking more land back than Russia takes. More deep strikes into Russia than Russia fires into Ukraine.

Killing more Russians than Russia can recruit. That's the momentum shift. 1/
Taylor: Ukraine has cut off fuel and ammunition for the Russian military in Crimea. They're threatening the last connection — the Kerch Bridge — which Ukrainian drones can now take out.

They are the masters of the drones. And Crimea is being squeezed from every direction. 2/
Taylor: In 2014 when Russia first invaded, 97% of Ukraine's weapons came from abroad. They manufactured 3%. Today 70-80% of weapons on the battlefield are made in Ukraine.

Soviet heavy industry, including the missile industry, was in Ukraine. They draw on that expertise now. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 29
Hodges: Momentum has indisputably shifted to Ukraine. Ukrainians strike over 1,000 km deep with precision, bypassing Russian air defenses. Russians don't seem able to stop it.

In a country with more oil and gas than almost anyone on the planet — queues at gas stations. 1/
Hodges: Three effects. First — Russian people realize they've been lied to. Ukrainians are fighting ferociously and successfully. Russia's military has been stopped. Tourists in Crimea asking "what the hell's going on?"

That well of resilience is going to run dry. 2/
Hodges: Second — convoys can't move. Bridges into Crimea wrecked. Facilities on the peninsula destroyed. Crimea becoming untenable — not just for tourists, for the military.

Third — oil and gas exports to China, India dramatically reduced. Can't sustain the war economy. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 29
Ex-Ukrainian FM Prystaiko: Putin’s signal to his own people is: do not corner me, because I am dangerous and unpredictable.

But this signal is wearing out. Drones in Moscow and St. Petersburg show that the king is not dressed as well as he wants people to think.

1/
Prystaiko: From Poland’s point of view, Ukraine escalated. The problem is old; it is not about today’s Ukrainians or today’s government.

But Poland is strategically vital for our survival, and we still have not found a way to manage these risks and exit such crises.

2/
Prystaiko: Poland does not want radical escalation now. But if anti-Ukrainian moods help Nawrocki solve domestic problems and gain popularity, Poland may go another round.

Ukraine’s EU accession is not Poland’s priority; protecting its own market is.

3/
Read 18 tweets
Jun 29
Trump threatened a 100% tariff on any European country that imposes a tax on US tech firms. The tariff would take effect immediately.

It would override every trade deal those countries had already signed with US, including the EU tariff pact reached in May — The Guardian. 1/ Image
Trump: Any country that imposes such a tax will be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America.

He said numerous European countries had discussed the tax and some were close to actually doing it. A larger EU-US trade war could follow. 2/
rance, Spain and Italy each levy a 3% digital services tax on large firms in their markets. Other EU states have done the same or proposed it.

The UK runs a separate 2% tax on social media platforms, large search engines and online marketplaces that profit from UK users. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 29
Between 2023 and 2024, sabotage attacks across Europe nearly tripled. The year before, they quadrupled.

Russia runs these attacks through ordinary people who never learn they serve Moscow — a Telegram admin, an attractive stranger, a fellow conspiracy theorist, United24. 1/ Image
After the 2018 Skripal poisoning and the 2022 expulsions, Moscow lost most of its career agent networks in the West.

Russian intelligence adapted instead of shrinking. It now hires disposable operatives to cut costs, dodge blame, and scale sabotage almost without limit. 2/
The GRU runs the operation through fake accounts, criminal fronts, cut-outs, and recruiters. The FSB uses diaspora and family ties in Russian-speaking areas.

After 2023, Wagner networks repurposed wartime infrastructure for recruitment over Telegram, Discord, and forums. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 29
Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba on why Putin won't go nuclear: No guarantee Ukraine surrenders. If Ukraine doesn't break after a nuclear strike, it backfires catastrophically.

The rocket falls on Ukraine but the effect hits Russia. They used everything and Ukraine still didn't break. 1/
Kuleba: China will stop him. The first wartime nuclear use since 1945 lifts the taboo for everyone. Israel can nuke Iran. Pakistan can nuke India.

China needs a controlled world, not nuclear chaos. China has leverage over Russia — despite always saying it doesn't. 2/
Kuleba: Trump, despite not being Ukraine's biggest friend, cannot leave nuclear weapons use without a response.

If he does nothing, Putin positions himself stronger against both Europe and America. The Americans will categorically work to prevent this scenario. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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