Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 12
Madyar, Ukraine’s top drone commander: We will isolate Crimea. Striking vehicles on that highway is as easy as shooting partridges in an open field.

Military personnel and defense workers will find it impossible to remain there or use access routes to it.

1/ Image
Madyar: The pain felt in every Ukrainian town should now be felt in the consciousness of Crimea's residents too.

Ukraine has not and will not strike civilians — unlike Russia's accusations, which are false.

2/
Madyar: We took our logistics system from grain trading — carriers, wagons, routes — and adapted it for weapons and ammunition.

Data analysis removes the human factor: a person gets tired, gets biased, makes mistakes.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12
Fiona Hill: Autocracies see the state as strong and society as irrelevant. Individuals have no real role.

The fundamental difference with democracies is that societies still matter and in Ukraine, society has shown extraordinary resilience. 1/
Hill: In Ukraine, strong society is beating strong state.

The state was weak and messy, but society mobilized, networked, flattened hierarchies and worked with the military. That is the opposite of Russia’s vertical, top-down system. 2/
Hill: Putin is afraid of his own society. Ukraine’s innovation comes from mobilized citizens working with the military.

Russia’s system runs vertically through Putin. That gives Moscow control, but it also makes Putin’s choices narrower and darker. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12
Fiona Hill: Trump does not understand the complexity of the Middle East. Lebanon, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah and Ukraine are connected in different ways.

For him, it is simpler: deal with whoever is on top, negotiate with himself, and ignore advice. 1/
Hill: Trump weakens his own negotiating position every day because he tells Iran what he is thinking in real time.

Tehran has no incentive to make a deal when there is no certainty, no assurance and no clarity about what the outcome would be. 2/
Hill: Iran is not just a theocracy. The religious leadership sits on top of the IRGC, the military and groups that penetrate the economy.

The Iranian people are separate from all this and Washington is missing their perspective completely. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12
Applebaum: What binds Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is not religion or ideology.

China is communist, Russia nationalist, Iran theocratic. What binds them is fear of liberal language: rights, rule of law, separation of powers and independent courts. 1/
Applebaum: Ukraine has changed how the war is fought. The front is now a 20-mile transparent zone where Ukrainian drones can see almost everything.

Every Russian truck, car or soldier entering that zone can be identified and hit. 2/
Applebaum: Russian losses of around 1,000 killed and wounded a day, roughly 30,000 a month, come from Moscow still throwing people into a zone Ukraine can see and strike.

Russia kept advancing by mass, but now that movement has stopped. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 12
Applebaum: Trump is not handling the Iran war strategically. He is not asking what is good for Americans, Iranians or the Middle East.

He is asking: how is this good for me? How do I emerge as the winner? He is chasing applause, not solving the problem. 1/
Applebaum: Trump has never made clear why America is fighting in Iran. Is it because he failed to destroy all nuclear facilities?

Because he wants Netanyahu’s approval? Nobody knows. This is not a problem of democracy, it is a problem of why this war exists. 2/
Applebaum: Iran wants frozen assets, sanctions relief and maybe compensation.

But if Trump offers that, it looks like Obama’s nuclear deal, so he backtracks. Then he returns to “absolute surrender,” regime change or a show that he is the greatest leader. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 12
Applebaum: The Trump administration often seems uninterested in human beings, not Americans facing inflation, not Iranians under bombing, not Epstein victims.

It is focused on clips, engagement, visuals and what the online world will say. 1/
Applebaum: This is beyond ordinary political spin. Spin doctors used to spin real events.

Trump’s world tries to create new realities, stories that may or may not have happened, shaped for screens and algorithms rather than for truth. 2/
Applebaum: You can take one horrible incident, distort the facts and turn it into a political story about an entire country.

That is how online narratives around migrants work: isolated tragedies are twisted into hatred, riots and real-world violence. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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