Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 19
Rachman, FT: "The current wars in Ukraine and Iran underline how foolish it is to assume that a military superpower will always win a war against a smaller country."

China's assumption that Taiwan would be helpless without American support is a dangerous mistake.

1/ Image
Ukraine has no navy — yet forced the Russian navy out of the Black Sea. Iran's navy was reportedly destroyed — yet Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed with drones, missiles and speedboats.

Naval superpowers are increasingly vulnerable to cheap weapons.

2/
Taiwan's strengths: a top-20 global economy, 90%+ of the world's most advanced semiconductors, its own anti-ship missiles and drones, and the natural protection of being an island.

China would need one of the most ambitious seaborne invasions in history.

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 19
Xi Jinping to Trump: Putin may regret invading Ukraine, FT.

Xi said this as the war enters its fifth year, Russia remains stuck in a battlefield stalemate, and Ukrainian drones keep striking Russian troops and targets deep behind the front.

1/ Image
Xi made the remark during talks with Donald Trump in Beijing last week.

FT: Xi went further than in past US-China talks on Ukraine.

2/
Putin now heads to China for a new summit with Xi.

The visit comes four days after Trump met Xi in Beijing and 25 years after Jiang Zemin signed the China-Russia friendship treaty with Putin.

3/
Read 9 tweets
May 19
Stubb: The Soviet Union marched 1,600km to Berlin in four years. Russia moved 60km into Donetsk in three.

Who knows modern warfare? Ukraine does. They are Europe's best security partner.

1/
Stubb: Ukraine kills or wounds 30–35,000 Russians per month. Kill ratio: 1 Ukrainian to 7–8 Russians.

In April, Ukraine took back more territory than Russia gained. 95% of damage comes from Ukrainian drones. The dead zone stretches 20–40km. Russia stopped advancing.

2/
Stubb: Most Russians now oppose the war. Ukraine strikes reach Moscow airports and St. Petersburg.

Russia shut down Telegram and WhatsApp. The war arrived home. The mood shifted — and now it's time to engage Russia directly.

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 18
Gates, former US Def. Sec: It would be a mistake to change the carefully worded US position on Taiwan.

Experts parse these things down to the tense of the verbs. Keeping the US position as it has been is important, and everything I’ve seen indicates the president did that. 1/
Gates: The US should go forward with what we’ve agreed with Taiwan. There is a huge backlog of weapons we sold to Taiwan that we have not been able to deliver.

An important shift is getting Taiwan to focus on weapons needed to defend against a Chinese amphibious invasion. 2Х
Source:

Read 4 tweets
May 18
Ukrainians are currently teaching 18,000 NATO troops on the Swedish island of Gotland.

The Aurora 26 exercises bring together 12 NATO members and Ukraine as a tutor. Ukrainian soldiers are sharing their experience in drone warfare — Radio Svoboda.

1/
For Sweden, the Aurora 26 exercises are part of the process of deepening its integration within NATO, which it joined just two years ago.

Gotland provides a strategic location between mainland Sweden and the Baltic states to the East.

2/
Aurora 26 presents a show of strength on NATO’s East border.

Gustaffson, Commander of Sweden’s Gotland Regiment: For now Russia is occupied in Ukraine. But if there is a ceasfire, it will easily switch to NATO.

3X
Read 5 tweets
May 18
Zelenskyy: Russia is considering plans for operations to the south and north of Belarusian territory, either against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction in Ukraine or against one of the NATO countries directly from the territory of Belarus — Reuters. 1/ Image
Russia has already deployed tactical nuclear warheads and Oreshnik hypersonic missiles in Belarus.

Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia all share the border. Both systems shorten Moscow's flight time to Warsaw, Vilnius, and Riga. 2/
Lukashenko opened Belarus as a launchpad for Russia's Feb 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

He never sent Belarusian troops to fight, because Moscow needed the territory, not the soldiers. Minsk keeps handing it over. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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