Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 18
Keane: China dominates the U.S. militarily in the region on every platform except submarines.

But deterrence is not platform-to-platform — it is forward capability and political will to impose costs and make Beijing doubt it can succeed. 1/
Keane: Xi has said for years he intends to take Taiwan. The goal is not only geopolitical — it is technological.

The world’s most advanced AI chips are made in Taiwan. Whoever owns that capability owns the future of AI. 2/
Keane: To break Iran’s regime, you kill its leaders, take away its military capability, and break its will.

A U.S.-Israel campaign would go back after the IRGC, the systems sustaining the regime, and remaining nuclear elements. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 18
Budanov: Ukraine is fighting the most brutal war on the European continent since World War II.

By casualties, geography, and the range of weapons used, we are at the top. A bad “top,” but still the top. 1/
Budanov: Unity means uniting around the state. During war, it is not the time to undermine the hierarchy.

When media feeds only scandals and betrayal, the soldier in the trench starts asking: why am I here? 2/
Budanov: Mobilized people also become heroes. Without them, even the current level of defense would not exist.

There are no fairy tales: if people are not brought to the front somehow, there will be no defensive stability. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 17
Applebaum: Europe can give up — or it can fight back by building.

New technologies, new platforms, new rules, more transparency, and democratic control over data and algorithms can replace systems designed to divide and exploit us. 1/
Applebaum: Europe should lean into its achievements. It remains an oasis of security, stability and rule of law.

In a world of unpredictable powers, Europe’s predictability is an advantage. 2/
Applebaum: Europe needs defense tech, European AI with European values, European social media platforms, and data stored on this side of the Atlantic.

It must think like the world’s most powerful economic zone — because that is what it is. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 17
NATO war game ended with Russia cutting off the Baltics in 24 hours — because Germany froze politically while the US stayed out.

Retired Ukrainian Gen. Romanenko, playing Russia’s commander, says NATO’s biggest weakness was not troops but hesitation, FP. 1/ Image
Scenario assumed a ceasefire in Ukraine by late 2026.

Russia rebuilt forces, left troops in Belarus after joint exercises, then used a “humanitarian crisis” in Kaliningrad as justification for escalation against Lithuania. 2/
“Russian” plan focused on speed. 12,000 troops advanced from Belarus while forces from Kaliningrad moved east.

To link up near Marijampole and cut the Baltics off from Poland through the Suwalki Gap within 24 hours. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 17
NATO will press Europe's defence industry to invest without guaranteed contracts. Mark Rutte will ask Rheinmetall, Airbus, Safran, MBDA, Saab and Leonardo to scale production now.

This breaks the procurement model that has stalled European rearmament — Aaron Kirchfeld, FT. 1/ Image
The meeting itself is unusual. Rutte meets defence executives regularly, but pulling this many top companies into one room is not routine.

NATO needs visible industrial expansion before the Ankara summit in July. 2/
NATO asked the companies in advance for data on planned investments and production capacity. Air defence and long-range missiles head the priority list.

Some firms will also present plans for new factories, hiring, and raw-material supply chains. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 17
A 12-year-old Ukrainian boy saved his siblings by doing something many soldiers fail to do under pressure.

Anatolii Prokhorenko grabbed a fiber-optic cable connected directly to Russia and stopped a drone seconds before it hit children playing near his house, The WP. 1/ Image
The drone was hunting civilians.

Russia uses FPV drones to track and strike people biking, driving, walking, or standing near their homes in border regions — a tactic Ukrainians call “human safari.” 2/
These drones are connected by hair-thin fiber-optic cables stretching up to 12 miles, making them immune to electronic jamming. Russia scaled them massively during battles in Kursk. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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