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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

May 1

Russia is seeing growing internal unrest, and Putin is responding with repression, arrests and the rehabilitation of Soviet symbols of terror — CNN.

In early March the FSB cut off mobile internet access in Moscow and other large cities. 1/

Putin: "The outages are related to operational work to prevent terrorist attacks. Widespread public information in advance can be detrimental to operational work, because criminals hear and see everything too." 2/

On April 22 the Investigative Committee raided the offices of publisher Eksmo and detained staff. Reason: "LGBTQ propaganda."

The book that drew scrutiny: a 2021 bestseller called "Summer in a Pioneer Tie" about a queer romance between two young men at a Soviet summer camp. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Macron: We are organizing the coalition of the willing for security guarantees in Ukraine under Franco-British command.

Europeans must take more responsibility for their own defense, keep NATO interoperability, and be able to act together. 1/

Macron: This exercise showed that Europeans can credibly deploy an operation of this scale together, with France as a framework nation.

That is a clear message to our Ukrainian partners and to every European army that knows it can join such missions. 2/

Macron: In February 2022, few experts believed Ukraine would resist.

But Ukrainians held, innovated, and defended their land step by step through force of soul. No equipment will do that in your place. In the end, victory still rests on people. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Ukraine wants to intercept 95% of Russia's long-range drones.

Borys, commander, 420th Unmanned Systems battalion: "Even if you use 50 drones to shoot down one Shahed, it's worth it. One Shahed can fly in and destroy something far more valuable" — Reuters. 1/

1,000 of 6,500 Russian long-range drones got through last month — Ukrainian air force data.

The hits stripped heating and lighting from millions and gutted energy facilities, military sites, and cities. 2/

In Feb, Defense Minister Fedorov set a 95% interception target. The rate that month: just over 85%.

This month it hit 90%, Fedorov told Reuters. With Russia's land push stalled, he says air defense is vital to surviving another year of war. 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Zaluzhnyi: By 2021, the escalation had already reached the point where diplomacy could no longer stop the war.

The only thing left was rapid mobilization and real preparation for war. The diplomatic window had already closed. 1/

Zaluzhnyi: As I see it, for the United States the goal in the war in Ukraine is clearly not Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat.

If there is no goal, there is no strategy. If there is no strategy, what follows is chaos. That is exactly what we are seeing now. 2/

Zaluzhnyi: The front is stably bad. Large operational breakthroughs are now impossible.

Drones and sensors made the battlefield transparent: if something appears, it is seen and struck. Neither we nor Russia can build the strike force needed for a real breakthrough. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, Zaluzhnyi: The old world order didn't enter turbulence. It no longer exists

Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, Venezuela and now the Middle East all show the same thing: rules exist on paper, but there is no force to enforce them. 1/

Zaluzhnyi: If any world order still exists, it is the order of the strong.

America is now telling Europe it is no longer the guarantor of European security and that Europe’s security is now in Europe’s own hands. That alone shows the old order is over. 2/

Zaluzhnyi: Whether this is already a third world war, historians will decide later.

But as witnesses, we can see an unfinished war in Ukraine, an unfinished war in the Middle East, and no mechanism able to prevent a third, fourth, or fifth war from breaking out. 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Apr 30

Yelizarov, founder of drone battalion that destroyed $14B worth of Russian equipment: Risk of tactical nuclear use is real. Partners must define a response in advance.

If Ukraine raises efficiency and enemy losses, it could demoralize Russia and enable a counteroffensive.

1/

Yelizarov: Russia faces manpower shortages. Ukraine could inflict more losses, but targets are limited.

Current Russian losses are about 30–35k per month. If Russia pushes harder, losses rise; if it slows down, they stay around that level.

2/

Yelizarov: Ukraine lost drone advantage. In 2022–23 we stopped Russia and stabilized the front, but didn’t retake territory.

With faster adaptation, we could have. That window is gone.

3X