Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 18
Zelenskyy is considering replacing Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky.

He may do so if he finds a successor who can ensure a smooth transfer and hold a stable defense along the 1,200 km front.

He will meet commanders this weekend to assess candidates, FT. 1/ Image
The crisis started after Syrsky gave Zelenskyy an ultimatum to remove Fedorov, according to Fedorov.

Zelenskyy said the two men no longer spoke directly without him mediating. 2/
Fedorov said Syrsky blocked defense ministry reforms.

He argued Ukraine needs new senior military leadership to fight Russia asymmetrically, with drones, automation and fewer losses. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 17
A British coder built the world's first network of fully autonomous drones for the Ukrainian army on paternity leave, in his garden shed, with his baby daughter in a papoose.

Gui Wainwright's AI software now kills Russian soldiers without any human interaction, The Times. 1/ Image
Wainwright: "Russia has an asymmetric advantage — its ability to throw men at Ukraine because it doesn't value human life.

Eventually, one man in a bunker with a computer could field 10,000 drones simultaneously and hold 1,000 miles of land."

2/
Ukraine didn't need new drones. It needed its existing drones to be made autonomous.

Wainwright's solution is hardware-agnostic. Rapid to scale, cheap to deploy, and unjammable because the drones receive no signal at all.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 17
Saam, ex Russian soldier now fighting for Ukraine: In most cases, the task in the Russian army is to die.

There is often no concrete objective — take a height, clear an area, or hold a position. Just go forward. 1/
Saam: Many Russian soldiers receive less than two days of training.

They are taken to units and assigned roles by “buyers”: machine gunner, grenade launcher operator, almost even helicopter pilot — though they may never have seen the weapon they are supposed to use. 2/
Saam: In the Russian army, I saw no brotherhood. Everyone tries to survive by any means.

You cannot go forward because death may be waiting there. You cannot go back because death is certainly waiting behind you. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 17
Ratcliffe, CIA Director: A Russian recruit’s average life expectancy in Ukraine is estimated at 20–30 minutes.

AI-powered drones have become low-cost killing machines, showing that mastery of technology is now as important as military strength. 1/
Ratcliffe: Russia occupied 19% of Ukraine when I became CIA director 18 months ago. Today it holds 20%.

Ukraine’s mastery of drones and asymmetric warfare has nearly stopped Russia’s advance, showing how emerging technologies can equalize the battlefield. 2X
Source:

Read 4 tweets
Jul 17
I told BBC that people in Kyiv are surprised, annoyed, disappointed with the government reshuffle, but not angry.

The reshuffle won’t affect Zelenskyy’s popularity either way. And student protests are real, but not anti-Zelenskyy. They want Fedorov back.

1/
Me: For students, Fedorov is an icon and a cultural role model. He represents youth and the new generation.

They love him and are really sad he is gone.

2/
Me: There is an open conflict between Syrskyi [Сommander-in-chief] and Fedorov.

The cabinet reshuffle triggered the dismissal of the Ministry of Defense. Some people say the reshuffle was just a pretext to remove Fedorov.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 17
Kasparov: Putin could launch an incursion into Latvia or Estonia to test NATO after Russia’s September election.

He has always escalated when he felt he was in trouble. The most likely next escalation is a provocation, Politico. 1/ Image
Kasparov: There is no sign in Russian propaganda, government actions or Putin’s speeches that Moscow is preparing for peace: War, war, war, war. 2/
Kasparov: Russia does not need a full-scale invasion to undermine NATO. Moscow could seize a small border town, possibly with a Russian-speaking population, and wait for the response.

If the US failed to help defend it, NATO is no longer there. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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