Petraeus: No western country is aggressively pursuing what needs to be pursued. A major German defense CEO belittled what the Ukrainians have done with drones.
Europeans will spend more on defense, but buy legacy platforms. Vested interests in buying what we've always bought. 1/
Petraeus: A senior army leader said they're giving 500 drones to a tank brigade. That is not revolutionary change.
Revolutionary change is you actually do away with part of the tank brigade and create entire unmanned forces that can do what we see in Ukraine so impressively. 2/
Petraeus: People asked during Iran if we could take Kharg Island. Of course — 82nd Airborne, Special Ops, Marines. But could we protect that force?
We don't have adequate deployable counter-drone capabilities. A single drone hits a single ship and everything freezes in place. 3X
Petraeus: Ukraine is about to isolate Crimea. Gasoline so short they won't sell it to civilians. Tourists who came for beaches are trying to get home any way they can
Kerch Bridge rail no longer works. Ferries knocked out. Land bridges destroyed. Pontoon bridges now targeted 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine took down Russia's air defenses steadily. Russia pulls them to Moscow, vulnerabilities open everywhere else. Moscow refinery hit three nights running, out at least six months.
They're going after fuel storage, refineries, gas lines from Siberia to the west. 2/
Petraeus: Real prospect now that Putin might need a cessation of hostilities himself. Oil sanctions reimposed, national welfare fund running out of money.
Crimea isolated, front lines cut off, economy crushed, all of this could force Putin to recognize he should end this war. 3X
Hodges: Not the time to take the foot off the gas on Crimea. Pour it on.
The West should help isolate Crimea — knock out bridges, ferries, all ways in and out, make it unusable for Russian forces. Airfields, air defense systems, logistics sites — targeted relentlessly. 1/
Hodges: I was criticized for being too optimistic about Crimea. I was so sure the US and UK would provide what Ukraine needed.
I was wrong — we did not support Ukraine as we should. So here we are now. Ukraine without too much help from us is doing this on their own. 2/
Hodges: When you combine the strategic destruction of oil and gas infrastructure, Russia can't pay for this anymore, with the operational destruction of logistics, at some point Russia will seriously consider stopping.
They can't sustain it at this level deep into next year. 3X
Hodges: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, I think that's an absolute fairy tale.
None of the oligarchs are suffering. Nobody in the upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg is going to suffer. These are people as spoiled as anybody else. 1/
Hodges: The 90% that are not upper class — they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better.
People counting on Russians being able to just endure more and more are misreading the actual situation. People are starting to wonder what the hell's going on. 2/
Hodges: What will really be interesting is whether the Kremlin has to mobilize the population of Moscow or St. Petersburg.
If all the privileged young people suddenly find themselves putting on that green uniform of the Russian army, enthusiasm for this war will really drop. 3X
Ex-UK Defence Attaché to Moscow, Foreman: Deterrence holds, nuclear and conventional. The biggest threat is unconventional cyber and political interference
Putin doesn't want to escalate from a local war to a regional war with NATO given the uncertainty of what Trump would do 1/
Foreman: I don't exclude Russia escalating versus Ukraine or mobilizing for one last heave.
Putin is very concentrated on winning as he sees it in the Donbas. But as long as deterrence is credible and capable and we communicate it clearly to Russia, we should be safe. 2/
Foreman: What we lack are clear channels of communication with Russia. They've been cut over the last few years, we shout past each other.
The Americans said the highest risk is unintended escalation from an incident that spins out of control. We have to talk to them somehow. 3X