Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 18
Prof. Michael Clarke: This [US-Iran deal] is not a peace deal. It is an exchange of memoranda, basically an agreement to keep talking for 60 days under a ceasefire.

Trump is selling it as a breakthrough, but it is only a pathway toward a possible deal. 1/
Clarke: Iran may not sign on Trump’s timetable. Tehran has every reason to delay, embarrass him, and show it is not playing to his agenda.

Iran has a long memory for humiliating U.S. presidents through timing. 2/
Clarke: The hard issues are still unresolved: Hormuz, enriched uranium, nuclear limits, frozen assets, sanctions relief and Lebanon.

The key fight will be sequencing — what Iran gives first, and what it gets in return. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 17
Russia may have lost more than 70% of its combat-ready Tu-22M3 bombers since 2022.

Around 33–34 were combat-ready before the full-scale invasion. Today, only 9–10 may remain operational.

Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 in June 2025. — U24.

1/
Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya, Belaya and Dyagilevo airbases in June 2025.

Three more crashed in the Irkutsk region alone — in 2024, 2025, and now June 2026. In total, Russia may have lost or had damaged 24 of these bombers since 2022.

2/
Russia stopped producing the Tu-22 in any variant in 1993. No replacement program exists.

The spare parts base is so limited that even minor damage can lead to an aircraft being written off or cannibalized for parts.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 17
Timothy Snyder: The memory war is far more comfortable for Polish politicians than the real one.

They get to say: we're right, we're innocent. I know the history. But you start with what's happening now, not memory. Skip that, and you start from a falsehood.

1/ Image
Snyder: Treat Ukrainians as partners and allies — even when they make mistakes.

Remember that every day they lose people in this war, partly so that Poland can keep living normally.

2/
Snyder: Judging Zelenskyy's decision to name a unit after UPA without the context of nearly four and a half years of war would be a mistake.

This is the longest war of this century, longer than World War I — it stirs emotions the West struggles to understand.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jun 16
Putin says Ukraine must give up Zaporizhzhia region.

DeepState: Russia controls slightly more than 2/3 of the region.

But on the strategically important Orikhiv axis, Russian forces have had no major success since April, — Babel.
1/ Image
Russian forces are about 20 km from Zaporizhzhia in some areas of the front.
They launch over 800 strikes on the city every day, mostly with FPV drones. Their closest positions are now from the Stepnohirsk direction.
2/
Russia wants to capture Stepnohirsk by the end of June.
It is bringing in manpower, forming assault groups, and using guided aerial bombs. But its assault groups still cannot fully entrench there.
3/
Read 7 tweets
Jun 16
Holger Neumann, chief of the German air force: We are ready to fight Russia tonight if Moscow attacks any NATO ally.

We will go in with everything we have, in the air force and across NATO, to defend our country, our population, and our alliance — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Neumann: It must be clear, there are no zones of different security. NATO is NATO, down to the last inch.
We have to make a very strong effort to over watch and, if required, act along certain regions. 2/
Neumann named the regions NATO would strike back. Kaliningrad, St Petersburg, the Kola Peninsula where Moscow is massing nuclear weapons, and the Black Sea fleet.
Any defensive response would amount to "32 against X" — the alliance's 32 air forces against one. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jun 16
Ukraine is sealing Crimea off from land and sea. In mid-June, drones struck the bridges at Chonhar, Henichesk, Myrne, and Armyansk, the links to the mainland.

Robert Brovdi, commander of Unmanned Systems Forces: “Ukraine will fully isolate it soon”— United24. 1/ Image
Ukraine is closing the sea routes too. Naval drones wait around Crimea, block shipping, and have hit several ferries. Some now launch their own drones and strike aerial targets.

The fuel shortage runs so deep that Russian mobile teams lack the petrol to hunt those drones. 2/
In May, Ukraine set the summer plan, a logistics lockdown that cuts Russian supply lines to seize the initiative on the battlefield.

Middle Strike drones reach Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, with Crimea at the center. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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