Sikorski: In January 2022, Russia made a brief military move into Kazakhstan to interfere in its succession. I believe China told Russia: get out right now, or we'll cut off trade. Russia obeyed.
It can't prosecute this war without trade with China. 1/
Sikorski: China could actually force Russia to end the war. My guess is the war suits China just fine.
Russia sells China gold, and grows more dependent on it every year. What's not to like about that? 2/
Sikorski: Like Weimar Germany, and Tsarist Russia in World War One, Putin's Russia is running out of the resources to keep fighting. I think he probably has enough for another year or so. 3X
Theresa May: It cannot be business as usual with Russia. It wasn’t after the Salisbury attack, and certainly not after what has happened in Ukraine.
People often ask me what Putin is like. Once a KGB man, always a KGB man. 1/
May: Russia and Putin are under significant strain. The economy has been hit hard, and Russia is losing significant numbers of personnel, both killed and wounded.
Ukraine is rapidly improving its ability to fight, and the balance is shifting. 2/
May: The shifting balance does not mean negotiations will happen soon. They may still be some time away.
But the war cannot end with Russia winning. We cannot allow Russia to win. 3X
War analyst Barros: Russia's advance has flatlined, basically net zero.
Ukraine is mid-shaping operations to set up a breakout, and I'm confident we'll see Ukrainian territorial gains to talk about in the coming months. 1/
Barros: The front is genuinely contested for the first time in two years. Russia holds the initiative around Pokrovsk.
Ukraine is reportedly counterattacking near Kharkiv and Donetsk, and holds the initiative in Zaporizhzhia. 2/
Barros: Russia still has no answer to Ukraine's mid-range strike campaign.
Occupied territory now runs on makeshift fuel generators, which starves electronic-warfare systems of power and weakens drone defenses. Shaping phases like this can run four to six months. 3/
Loomer: If I were president and Russia supplied Iran with weapons, I would kill Putin.
Putin is afraid of Trump. He can pretend he is not, but he knows Trump calls the shots. Trump could be far more aggressive with Putin if he wanted. I do not speak for Trump.
1/
Loomer: I’m not saying Trump should kill Putin.
If I were president and a country lied to my face while arming an enemy whose state TV chants “death to America” and “death to Trump,” I would find a way for that leader to die of a sudden heart attack.