Keane: You do not need 10,000 troops to seize Iran’s uranium. The US controls the airspace.
The real threat is rockets and missiles. Another option is to threaten Kharg Island: give up enrichment, or lose more than 90% of your export lifeline. 1/
Keane: Trump’s blockade already shuts down Iran’s oil exports. Zero export oil leaves Iran under this order.
Kharg Island handles more than 90% of that flow, so cutting that artery hits Tehran hard and fast and strips away Tehran’s leverage. 2/
Keane: Iran misread the ceasefire. Tehran thought the shutdown gave it leverage and would push US negotiators into concessions.
Instead, talks collapsed, Trump wanted everything, and Washington’s answer was simple: absolutely not. 3/
Russian soldiers go to war for money, then pay it back to survive.
“I gave $650 to be moved to guard duty in Crimea. Others paid more. One guy said he pays more than he’ll ever earn. Someone turned this war into a business.” — Meduza. 1/
Commanders run it like a system.
Skip a mission: $2,600. Stay in the rear: up to $6,500. Soldiers pay again and again — every rotation, every order. 2/
They pay for everything.
Armor, radios, fuel, food. Units collect $400 monthly per soldier. Some give away $25k+ over time. 3/
When soldiers are taught how to survive an FPV drone, they’re taught “how to try to survive.”
Rule number one: don’t stay together. One strike can wipe out a group. If you scatter, the drone has to pick one target. After that — it’s all down to chance, The Telegraph. 1/
If there’s no cover, drop low and make yourself harder to see. If there is cover — run. Stay in shadows, hug walls, use vegetation to reduce visibility and heat signature. 2/
Drone Fight Club founder Vladyslav Plaksin: You have to think ahead. What you’re doing now is already in the past. You need to know where the drone will be in 2–3 seconds. That’s why musicians make great operators. 3/
Anne Applebaum: If Orbán lost, Putin and Trump can be next.
Illiberal regimes can fall even after 16 years in power — Hungary just proved it, writes she in The Atlantic. 1/
Péter Magyar and his party Tisza won a constitutional majority of Parliament seats.
To get there he had to defeat a regime that controlled the judiciary, bureaucracy, universities and a chunk of the economy through oligarchic companies. 2/
In the final weeks Orbán received support from Trump, Vance, Netanyahu, Marine Le Pen, Alice Weidel and other illiberal leaders from Argentina, Poland, Slovakia and Brazil. 3/
Here is what Peter Magyar plans to do first as Hungary's new leader:
1. pass a new constitution 2. unlock $20 billion in frozen EU funds 3. introduce a wealth tax, repair ties with Ukraine and the EU 4. fix a near-junk credit rating, writes Bloomberg. 1/
Politics: demand resignations of the president, top justices and chief prosecutor. Pass a new constitution. Change election rules that favored Fidesz. Limit prime ministers to two terms — effectively barring Orbán from running again. 2/
Foreign policy: unlock more than $20 billion in EU funds frozen over graft and rule of law concerns. Pass anti-corruption legislation. Restore judicial independence and media freedom. First trip: Warsaw. Then Vienna and Brussels. 3/
McFaul: Before this war, Hormuz was open. Now Trump is talking about a joint venture with the Islamic Republic to charge ships for passage.
Charging for a natural strait is a terrible precedent, and doing business with this regime could hand it billions. 1/
McFaul: The costs go far beyond Iran.
This war generated billions for Putin through higher oil prices, pushed NATO into a major crisis because Trump is lashing out at allies, and made America look less like a defender of order and more like another rogue power. 2/
McFaul: If we want to compete with China, we need allies, values, and a reputation for playing by the rules.
Instead, this war makes China look prudent and cautious while America looks reckless, punitive, and willing to wreck the order it claims to defend. 3/