Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 13
Keane: Five weeks of talks have produced almost no progress.

Iran still refuses to dismantle its nuclear enterprise, wants indefinite control of Hormuz, and wants the US to finance regime recovery through reparations, unfrozen assets, and sanctions relief. 1/
Keane: A deal like that would favor Iran and set back both the Iranian people and US interests.

Tehran would use the money to rebuild its nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and proxies — the very things this war was launched to stop. 2/
Keane: After all this time trying to negotiate, Washington should recognize that no deal meeting its objectives is available.

The best option is to return to full combat operations, finish what we started, and go full throttle with Israel for one to two weeks. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 12
Putin ran a parade he could not defend.

If the US and Europe keep Kyiv funded and armed, Ukraine can negotiate from strength.

The fastest way to prolong the war is to offer Putin an exit that preserves his system — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Putin sells inevitability. The parade showed vulnerability.
Ukraine can now hit deep inside Russia. Putin avoided parking real hardware at a known place and time. 2/
After the spectacle, Putin said: "I think that the matter is coming to an end."
He still calls this war a "special operation." The language stays. The capacity shrinks. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 12
Belarus already gave Russia territory for the 2022 assault on Kyiv, launched missiles from its soil, repaired Russian tanks, and treated wounded soldiers.

But Putin appears to want more and is pressuring Lukashenko[Putin’s puppet] to deepen Belarus’s role in the war, Times. 1/ Image
Ukraine now fortifies the 1,080 km Belarus border with mines, trenches, anti-tank barriers, sensors, barbed wire, and anti-drone defenses.

The Rivne crossing, once used by thousands daily, now sits behind minefields and armored patrols. 2/
Zelenskyy: Belarus is building roads toward Ukraine and placing artillery near the border.

Ukraine also reported “unusual activity” on the Belarusian side on May 2. 3/
Read 11 tweets
May 12
Trump arrives in Beijing as a weakened president.

The Iran war unresolved, the Strait of Hormuz still closed, tariffs failing.

Xi holds the cards, including a near-monopoly over rare earths and critical minerals. — Gideon Rachman, FT.

1/ Image
When Trump imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing restricted mineral exports.

US factory production lines shut down within weeks. Within months — a trade truce.

2/
China's AI models are now roughly six months behind US rivals. Electric vehicles — China is ahead. Nvidia is lobbying to soften chip export restrictions, arguing it will lose markets to Chinese competitors.

The US lead in technology is narrowing.

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 12
Germany and Ukraine will jointly produce long range drones that can fly 1,500 km.

Ukraine needs reach to hit launch sites and logistics deep behind Russian lines.

Germany wants Ukraine’s battlefield feedback loop built into production — Kyiv Post. 1/ Image
Boris Pistorius came to Kyiv quietly for a reason.

Weapons cooperation is no longer about just deliveries. Now Ukraine is building joint manufacturing capacity. 2/
The project spans two layers.

Short range systems under 100 km for the front, and deep strike platforms up to 1,500 km. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 12
Palantir CEO Alex Karp met with Zelenskyy and Fedorov in Kyiv. Ukraine is scaling AI for warfighting with real data.

Palantir is helping Ukraine to analyze air attacks. Now the task is to integrate AI into defense tech projects and deep strikes, using intelligence data at scale. 1/Image
Ukraine builds feedback loops. Drones and missiles produce data. Analysts turn it into targets and defenses. The system learns. If the loop runs faster than Russia adapts, Ukraine wins time and lives. 2/
Fedorov showed Brave1 Dataroom — a pipeline that lets Ukrainian developers train models on battlefield data. More than 100 companies already use it. That is an industrial base for military AI, not a demo day. 3/
Read 7 tweets

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