Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 28
Historian Niall Ferguson: Magyar’s victory over Orbán is good not because the left defeated the right.

What happened is that a non-corrupt populist who is not a lackey of Putin and Xi defeated one who became both corrupt and a lackey of our adversaries. 1/
Ferguson: This is a great day not just for Hungary. It is a great day for Ukraine and for everybody who believes in liberty.

If populists can lose elections, they are not fascists. There is hope here for Europe and for the wider democratic world. 2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Apr 28
Petraeus: The real future of war is in Ukraine. The mass of unmanned systems there is incomparably greater than anything else on earth.

Ukraine is using nearly 10,000 unmanned systems a day, and traditional combined-arms warfare no longer works on that front. 1/
Petraeus: This is now the most lethal front line in history. You cannot drive through the 35-kilometer death zone.

Drones spot you, then come suicide drones, bomber drones, and glide bombs. Even resupply and casualty evacuation now go by remote vehicle. 2/
Petraeus: The next phase is autonomous warfare: machines replacing remote pilots, then systems of systems where sensors and algorithms make decisions at machine speed.

I visited three major drone makers. One company alone will build 3 million drones this year. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 28
Petraeus: The [Hormuz] blockade was the right call. Ending this war with Iran militarily wrecked but still controlling Hormuz would leave Tehran strategically stronger.

We cannot let Iran decide who sails the strait or turn it into a private Panama Canal and charge tolls. 1/
Petraeus: The benchmark is not insurance cost. It is whether crews live.

CEOs told me they will not send sailors into that risk, and about eight crew members have already been killed by Iranian attacks on ships in the Gulf. That alone is enough to freeze traffic. 2/
Petraeus: Two red lines dominate the talks: Hormuz must be restored as an untaxed international waterway, and Iran must give up the roughly 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium.

That is one turn away from weapons grade. The pressure has to continue. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 28
Keane on Iran: We have about two weeks to complete the operation, with roughly 25% still to go and we now have twice the combat power in the region that we had when we started.

It is time to go back to full military operations and keep the blockade on. 1/
Keane: Opening the Strait without a nuclear deal is not progress at all. After weeks of negotiations, it is pretty obvious the Iranians will never propose a deal we can accept.

All they want is regime survival and the chance to recover enough to become a threat again. 2/
Keane: We keep assuming pain will force Tehran to bend. That is the mistake. They do not care about gas lines, blackouts, or the suffering of their people.

They believe time is on their side: oil prices stay high, pressure rises in the US, and Washington blinks first. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 28
Bolton: I’m not sure Trump knows where he is, because I’m not sure he knew what his objectives were going in.

If you do not know where you are going, any road will do. He wants this over, but because he does not think strategically, he is at a loss over what to do next. 1/
Bolton: The only long-term answer to Iran threat is regime change. New faces are not a new regime.

The ideology is the same. Trump failed to do what a serious regime-change effort required before hostilities, but he still has time to work with and resource Iran’s opponents. 2/
Bolton: It is impossible for me to believe Trump was not told Iran would try to shut Hormuz. Everybody knew that threat was there.

The danger is not just mines. It is anti-ship missiles, fast boats, and drones. Better late than never, but this should have been hit earlier. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 27
NYT: Europe is preparing for a long war with Russia as the US has effectively withdrawn from peace negotiations. 15 months ago Trump promised to stop the war in one day. Today analyst James Sherr: “We find ourselves largely where we began in the negotiations.” 1/ Image
Zelenskyy has “lost 80% of his illusions” about Trump’s support. Ukrainians believe they are holding their own militarily and that any resolution “will take place on the battlefield, if at all.” 2/
Trump and his team are preoccupied with Iran. Witkoff and Kushner are planning another trip to Moscow — again without stopping in Kyiv. Zelenskyy said this week: “It’s disrespectful to come to Moscow and not Kyiv. It’s just disrespectful.” 3/
Read 12 tweets

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