Bill Browder: War in Ukraine is now only about Putin’s personal survival.
He needs the war to stay in power, and he needs to stay in power to stay alive. The destruction of Russia is unparalleled, but he cannot stop. If he stops, he loses everything. 1/
Browder: Putin is a historic liar, but he’s honest about one thing.
He believes Ukraine should not exist as a sovereign state. He hasn’t deviated from that for a minute. He doesn’t want compromise. He wants total and absolute victory. 2/
Browder: Peace talks create the appearance of negotiation so Putin can keep fighting and avoid sanctions.
He can tell Trump: you can’t upset delicate negotiations. That is the main intention behind this process. 3/
DW: Yana joined Ukrainian army last year. Nastia signed up in 2023.
“I’m already used to shelling. If something is flying, I know what to do. I’m not in such a panic. I can calm some guys sitting next to me, calm down, everything is fine, it will fly by.” 1/
DW: Women face many challenges in the army, even criticism about their appearance.
“Although we serve, we’re also women. We want to be well-groomed, beautiful. Why do they care? It’s upsetting that men who would never come here write this.” 2/
DW: Everybody makes a difference and women play an important role in Ukrainian military. There are around 70,000 women, about 8% of the armed forces, and around 5,000 on the front line. Support roles free up others to take on frontline roles. 3X
FT: Russia’s total losses estimated at 325,000 killed, with 30,000-35,000 soldiers killed or seriously wounded every month.
Russia’s army is advancing slower than during the Battle of the Somme, while suffering its heaviest losses in 4 years of full-scale war. 1/
Russian offensives now move 15-70 meters per day on key axes. That pace is slower than most wars of the last 100 years and reflects sustained attrition. 2/
Ukraine’s Commander-in-chief Syrskyi: Russia recruits 35,000 men per month, but 90% of new recruits replace dead or wounded soldiers, not expand combat units.
Kremlin is promising $12T worth of deals to Trump administration in return for sanctions relief.
Zelenskyy: “Russia has already promised these deals. One Washington insider says a package has already been agreed on” — The Economist. 1/
Before Putin met Trump in August, a note was drafted for Russia's National Security Council explaining how to sell "the Greatest Deal" to Trump.
Since April, Dmitriev, who runs a Russian state fund, has met Witkoff at least 9 times. 2/
Russia is offering Arctic oil, rare-earth mines, nuclear data center, Bering tunnel.
Individuals close to Trump family have been in talks to acquire stakes in Russian energy assets. Putin offered to return $5B seized from ExxonMobil. 3/