Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jun 20
Britain is building long-range missiles for Ukraine without U.S. components.

Washington has repeatedly delayed or limited the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow for strikes inside Russia.

Ukraine gets weapons no one in Washington can veto — FT. 1/ Image
The project is called Brakestop.

The UK unveiled three prototype long-range strike missiles developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace.

After more tests this year, one or more could reach Ukraine by the end of 2026. 2/
The requirement is political as much as technical.

No U.S. components. No dependence on U.S. cartographic data. No American guidance systems.

The UK wants sovereign control over what it gives Ukraine and how Ukraine can use it. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20
Hodges: The Kerch Bridge is a high-payoff target, not just logistically but psychologically. Destroying Putin's bridge would demolish morale and erode the false narrative of inevitable Russian victory

The Ukrainians will pick the right time. It will require a lot of explosive 1/
Hodges: Russia can't rebuild the Kerch Bridge quickly — especially if an entire span drops. There's a reason no bridge existed there before. Massive engineering undertaking.

The Ukrainians have already been degrading its defenses and weakening the structure systematically. 2/
Hodges: Ukraine's long-range precision strikes on Russia's oil and gas — this is the path to victory. When Russia can no longer export, that cuts off the only income sustaining the war.

It also proves to Russians that the Putin regime cannot protect them from Ukraine. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 20
Hodges: Crimea dominates the Black Sea, it's why Catherine the Great took it in the 18th century. If Russia holds it, they block access to the Azov Sea and disrupt everything out of Odessa.

It's in the interest of all of us that Ukraine regains control of Crimea. 1/
Hodges: Crimea is doable. The geography that makes it important also makes it vulnerable. Ukraine now has the range — drones, missiles, weapons platforms — to touch every target.

No airfields, no logistics bases, no radar safe. There is no place to hide on that peninsula. 2/
Hodges: Isolation of Crimea is picking up speed. The Kerch Bridge is so weakened Russia cut heavy traffic over it. Northern bridge systems are hit every day. Convoys reroute — more vulnerable.

That's why you see pictures of Russian convoys on fire on social media almost daily 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 20
Kuleba: In Brussels, European leaders were stunned by Ukraine's strikes on Moscow. To say they were impressed is to say nothing.

But I was told some leaders are frightened by Ukraine's strength, they see strategically what kind of powerful player is emerging on their doorstep 1/
Kuleba: The effect is triple. They're glad Ukraine hits back hard. But they see a new Ukraine forming — one that will join the EU and will be a force.

And they're terrified about what happens with Russia next. Europeans fear uncontrolled developments there. It paralyzes them. 2/
Kuleba: They realize they're absolutely helpless. They don't influence Ukraine's approach toward Moscow.

And Ukraine today has real levers to launch an uncontrolled spiral accelerating the death of the Russian empire. This scenario genuinely unsettles the Europeans. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 20
Kuleba: Hungary's Magyar blocked five EU negotiation clusters with Ukraine. But he is not Orbán.

He faces huge domestic pressure from Fidesz supporters accusing him of selling out Hungarian interests. He boasted publicly because he needs to contain that pressure at home. 1/
Kuleba: Magyar wasn't alone. Behind him, other EU members gladly hid — including some who welcomed Zelenskyy in Brussels with smiles.

Two reasons: Ukraine is too large and will have too much influence. And the EU itself is not ready for such a major enlargement. 2/
Kuleba: The key news to watch for is not individual cluster openings. It's when the EU changes how it functions — reforms its own rules and adapts itself for Ukraine's accession.

That will be the decisive moment. Everything else is important but not the real obstacle. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jun 20
Fedorov, Ukraine’s Defense Minister: Western allies pledged $4 billion in new military aid to Ukraine at the Ramstein-format meeting in Belgium.

The packages cover air defense missiles, drones, and artillery, as Russia keeps striking Ukrainian cities, Kyiv Independent. 1/ Image
Nearly $1 billion of that sum will flow through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, or PURL, to buy interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems.

Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, and Sweden cover most of it. Nine countries confirmed their part in PURL. 2/
German Defense Minister Pistorius allocated $200 million for air defense ammunition and another $200 million for PAC-3 missiles for Patriot systems.

Both move through Jumpstart, a fast-track procurement framework that shortens the wait for delivery. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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