Bolton: Ukrainian strikes inside Russia undercut Kremlin propaganda.
They show ordinary Russians the war is not going well — not only by causing real military damage, but by making the reality of the war visible on Russian territory. 1/
Bolton: Russia expected significant territorial gains this spring, and that has not happened.
If anything, Russia has lost territory in Ukraine. By August or September, Putin may need another plan because the current strategy is not working. 2/
Bolton: Putin would like to keep U.S. attention focused on Iran or China because that buys him more time to decide what to do next in Ukraine.
Moscow may think Trump is so diverted by Iran that Ukraine will not catch his attention. 3/
Putin wants to end the war by the end of 2026. But only with full control of Donbas and Europe's acknowledgment of Russia's territorial gains.
Russia now loses more soldiers than it recruits. Kremlin officials believe the conflict has reached a dead end, — Bloomberg.
1/
Ukraine's casualty ratio improved to roughly one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russian troops — Finnish President Stubb said last month.
Rubio confirmed May 13: Ukraine now has Europe's "most powerful armed forces."
2/
Ukraine's drones are a game changer. 35,203 Russian soldiers killed or severely wounded in April alone.
Ukraine's goal: "inflict at least 200 enemy losses for every square kilometer of advance." The front line stabilized by mid-May for the first time in months.
3/
Browder: How does Putin afford to keep fighting after four years? Oil and oil products. That is where the money comes from.
If we want to stop the invasion, we take away his money — and that means stopping Russia’s oil sales. 1/
Browder: Pausing sanctions does not create new jet fuel. Russia can still sell under sanctions — it just gets a lower price.
Removing pressure only redistributes profit back to Moscow. It does not solve shortages; it gives Putin more money. 2/
Browder: Zelenskyy is watching the West talk about sanctions, do them halfway, or delay them.
So Ukraine is sending drones into Russia and blowing up oil refineries — imposing its own oil sanctions because Western policy is fickle and half-hearted. 3/
Kellogg: Trump has been extremely measured with Iran, but negotiations should be broken off.
Seize Kharg Island. It controls 90% of Iran’s economy, puts the whole country at risk, especially the leadership, and creates leverage fast. 1/
Kellogg: Take the command-and-control hub for the Strait, put Marines there, line up Avenger-class minesweepers, and escort ships out on the Omani side.
Clear the Strait, take control of the situation, and stop trusting the IRGC. 2/
Kellogg: You do not have to invade Iran.
Take a couple of strategic choke points, take away the regime’s economy, strangle it, and build up resistance from inside. The government starts to fall when its survival is at stake. 3/
Keane: Iran’s regime does not care about the suffering of its people.
It thinks it can run out the clock, increase political and economic pressure on Trump, and use any negotiated deal to finance the regime’s recovery. 1/
Keane: Trump has shown huge patience since the April 8 ceasefire, but a deal does not seem possible.
The U.S. is on the cusp of returning to combat operations with Israel — full throttle, all out, no half measures. 2/
Keane: The next target list should include remaining weapons, nuclear remnants, the organizations sustaining the regime, and Iran’s revenue sources.
The goal is not just military pressure, but forcing economic collapse. 3/