Petraeus: Ukraine is outnumbered five to one in personnel and twelve to one in the economy.
They are taking the fight to Russia on the front lines, on the Black Sea, in the depth of the battlefield, and inside the Russian Federation itself. Every single day. 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine has sunk over 35% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet — without a navy.
They did it with aerial drones that find the ships and maritime drones that sink them, all designed by Ukrainians themselves. The fleet is now hiding in a port as far from Ukraine as possible. 2/
Petraeus: They have hit at least 40% of Russia's fuel storage and refineries.
They blew up a fuel depot in St. Petersburg the morning Putin opened his economic forum, then hit again the next day. Russia has taken more killed and wounded than the US did in all of World War II. 3X
Snyder: Russia's 2022 war plan was not a military plan, it was a political plan. It assumed Ukraine is artificial, not real, invented by the West. Within days they expected to be in Kyiv.
Not because of military calculation, because they believed no one would fight back. 1/
Snyder: Putin read intelligence through a worldview where Ukraine isn't real. Agents promised support once troops came. In that framework — invade and everyone sides with you.
All that money paid to agents led to nothing. People in Ukraine were politically Ukrainian. 2/
Snyder: It was a huge miscalculation — Ukrainians were going to resist. The ideological convictions from books Putin read, from Soviet attempts to Russify history, shaped how this war was planned.
This invasion wouldn't have happened if Russia understood Ukraine was real. 3X
Macron: Trump arrived thinking Ukraine would lose and wanted a quick deal. At the Anchorage summit, he nearly handed over territory Ukraine still controls on the ground.
Then three things fundamentally changed his calculus and the shift has been decisive for the war. 1/
Macron: Every three months, Western and Russian analysts predict Ukraine will finally collapse.
Every three months, they are proven categorically wrong. Ukraine is resisting with stunning innovation and a military production capacity that no one anticipated. 2/
Macron: First, Trump saw Ukrainians are credible, determined fighters who defy every prediction.
Second, Europeans are finally taking real military responsibility — a coalition of willing armies will march in the July 14 parade. That signal reached Washington clearly. 3/
Applebaum: Putin has presented a fake image of Russia to the world. He talks about leading a traditional society
In reality, divorce is very high, abortion is common, very few Russians go to church and less than 5% have ever read a Bible. It's not a traditional culture at all 1/
Applebaum: Part of the European right and the American right have this imaginary Russia they use as a political symbol — not understanding it has no relationship to reality.
Most people who admire Russia haven't even been to Moscow or St. Petersburg, let alone the rest of the country. 2/
Applebaum: Putin went back into Soviet history books and re-imposed old plans.
The Soviet occupation of Ukraine in the 1930s and Czechoslovakia in the 1940s looks like Ukraine today — filtration camps, arrests of teachers, mayors, political leaders. It's the old playbook brought back. 3X
Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.
They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/
Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.
Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/
Applebaum: Ukraine will soon be able to export its drone and defense technology. Right after the Iran conflict broke out, Zelenskyy was in the Middle East talking to Gulf state leaders.
Gulf states are sovereign countries — they can talk to whoever they want to talk to. 3X
Applebaum: Putin doesn't want to end the war — he wants to win it. Winning still means the same thing it always meant: occupying Ukraine, changing the government, making Ukraine a satellite of Russia.
Donbas is where he'd start, but he's never given up the bigger idea. 1/
Applebaum: The only deal possible with Putin is to convince him he can't win — through military pressure and sanctions. Trump hasn't been willing to do that.
He's actually stopped aiding Ukraine militarily. He has no leverage over Russia and can't convince them of anything. 2/
Applebaum: Russia can't conquer Donbas, but that doesn't mean they couldn't use military force against a Baltic state — less protected now than Ukraine.
They may want to show the NATO guarantee doesn't work anymore. The risk of Russia using military power remains very real. 3/