How far are Ukraine and Russia from signing a peace deal?
The Times writes that the next few days are the most dangerous moment of the war, as Europe fears Trump could cut Ukraine loose and side with Moscow to force a settlement at almost any price.
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In October, Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner negotiated a 28-point US–Russia plan with Putin ally Kirill Dmitriev — without Ukraine or the EU.
The deal handed Crimea and Donbas to Russia, froze the front and capped Ukraine’s army at 600,000.
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The plan banned NATO membership, forced troop withdrawals, lifted sanctions on Russia and invited Moscow back into the G8.
Security guarantees stayed weak and vague: talk of a response, no hard commitments.
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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has entered the economic track of Trump–Ukraine negotiations — a major signal that reconstruction planning is moving into real money and procedures, reports Bloomberg. 1/
Zelenskyy said Fink joined Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jared Kushner on Wednesday for what he called “the first meeting of the group that will work on a document concerning reconstruction and economic recovery of Ukraine.” 2/
Fink’s return is notable: BlackRock paused its Ukraine recovery fund nearly a year ago after Trump’s re-election.
Before the freeze, the fund was on track to raise $2.5B from governments, development banks and private investors. 3/
Its army crawls forward with heavy losses, its economy stalls with a 22% drop in oil and gas revenue and public support for the war collapses , writes The Economist.
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Putin films himself in fatigues and boasts that troops “advance virtually everywhere.”
On the ground, Russian commanders send small assault groups to record victory clips before they die.
Ukrainian forces still hold Pokrovsk, weeks after Russia claimed to seize it.
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War spending hits half of Russia’s budget.
Tank plants work overtime, carmakers cut shifts.
The deficit nears 3% of GDP.
Sanctions block foreign borrowing, so the Kremlin drains its own people — higher taxes, domestic debt, and inflation.
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Zelenskyy: The Ukrainian people must answer the territorial question — either through elections or through a referendum.
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Zelenskyy: The US President said Ukrainians want the war to end and shouldn’t delay it just so someone can hold on to a position. So I said clearly: yes, I support elections.
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Zelenskyy: If our partners can help us organize elections safely and on time, I will support it. 3/
Shapiro: The US shouldn't pretend to be neutral between Russia and Ukraine. There’s corruption in Ukraine, but also in Qatar and other nations with which Trump has relations. The idea that Russia will become pro-American is foolish. Russians are adversarial to US interests. 1/
Shapiro: Many Europeans on the right want to make a separate deal with Russia. That’s bad for the U.S. if Russia gains a large part of Ukraine and invades again.
I can see why Russia wants to expand, but what guarantee could the U.S. offer Ukrainians to stop fighting? 2/
Shapiro: You can see why Zelenskyy is refusing to cede land to Russia, though this doesn’t excuse the corruption in his regime. I asked Zelenskyy directly about corruption when I visited him in Kiev. You can watch the interview. 3/
Croatian Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković: Croatia has already transferred M84 and M80 tanks to Germany so they could go straight to Ukraine, where they will be used against Russian aggression.
This cooperation works and it should grow. 1/
Q: Why is Russian energy still entering the EU when Croatia can fully fill it through Liquefied Natural Gas and Jadranski Naftovod?
Plenković: JANAF can supply 100% of the oil Hungary and Slovakia need, without Russian oil. Croatia will present this again to the EU Commission 2/
Q: Does Croatia support ending sanctions exemptions?
Plenković: The Serbia–Hungary route breaks the logic of sanctions.
Russian oil enters via Druzhba, gets refined in Hungary and is shipped to Serbia — we can’t send non-Russian oil because they control the Serbian refinery. 3/