Blumenthal: Iran has a lot of cards. Americans are paying much higher prices for gasoline, food and everything dependent on petrochemicals and plastics.
You can't count on war being quick and easy or base it on bombing alone. The costs of this war have yet to be fully felt. 1/
Blumenthal: A nuclear armed Iran is unacceptable. The President made a fundamental miscalculation that bombing alone would accomplish his objectives.
Those objectives have been shifting and contradictory. None has been achieved. 2/
Blumenthal: Iran is weakened economically, but it is in control of the strait. Where Trump is now headed seems very much the JCPOA 2.0.
It could have been the result of negotiations, not a war based on a fundamental miscalculation. 3X
Zelenskyy: Hungary returned $82m in Ukrainian cash and gold seized from Oschadbank.
Ukraine brought the staff home earlier, now the money and valuables also returned in full.
1/
The shipment included:
- $40m cash
- €35m cash
- 9 kg of bank gold
Oschadbank transported the assets from Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank to Ukraine when Hungarian security services stopped the convoy on March 6 in Budapest. 2/
Hungary detained Ukrainian cash collectors for 24+ hours, confiscated the money, and later passed a law allowing seizure of foreign cash shipments.
Orbán claimed, without evidence, the money could fund his political opponents. 3/
Putin’s meat grinder update — Russia lost 35,203 troops in April alone with almost no territorial gains to show.
More than 70,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded in just 2 months of spring. No major Ukrainian city captured. Front lines largely unchanged, United24. 1/
Russia’s “spring offensive” stalled almost entirely in Donetsk.
More than 2/3 of Russian attacks are concentrated there, with losses exceeding 400 soldiers per km² while failing to fully occupy the region. 2/
Kremlin has so little to present that Russia reduced the military part of its May 9 parade.
Fewer vehicles, fewer weapons displays — while Putin even discussed a possible ceasefire around Victory Day. 3/
Ukraine is building a Hague tribunal for Putin, Lukashenko, and Russia’s top leadership — while demanding over $1T in reparations from Russia.
Iryna Mudra, deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office: “Accountability is not a subject of bargaining in peace talks,” EP. 1/
Russia repeatedly demanded immunity.
During talks in 2022 and in its recent 28-point “peace plan,” Moscow pushed for lifting sanctions, ending court cases, and granting amnesty for Russian leadership and war crimes. 2/
Tribunal moves from politics to implementation. Council of Europe ministers will finalize legal creation of the court in Chisinau on May 14-15. It will operate in Hague.
Putin now spends weeks in bunkers, bans officials from using internet-connected phones, and fears assassination after Iran’s supreme leader was killed in a US-Israeli strike.
Russian elites increasingly discuss what happens after him, Times. 1/
Kremlin fears Ukraine could track Putin through Moscow’s surveillance system.
After Israel used cameras to monitor Iranian officials, Russia restricted mobile internet across Moscow, where 250,000 CCTV cameras operate. 2/
Putin’s approval fell from 77% in December to 65% in April — the lowest since the invasion began — as war losses and economic pressure intensify. 3/
In 1973, the Arab oil weapon worked once and broke within months. Iran built one that doesn't break.
Mines, drones, and small boats now hold 20% of global oil hostage in the Strait of Hormuz — and the US Navy has not pried them loose — Gregory Brew, Foreign Affairs. 1/
20% of global oil and 20% of global LNG sit trapped in the Persian Gulf, alongside helium, aluminum, and urea.
US gasoline crossed $4 a gallon and may break $5 by late May. Global oil demand is falling for the first time since COVID. 2/
Since Feb 28, Iran has hit 20+ ships in waters around the strait — Joint Maritime Information Center.
Mines, antiship ballistic missiles, drones, and swarms of fast boats. Decades of investment, deployed with little effort. 3/