Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 26
The Telegraph: Macron tore up 65 years of doctrine to defend Europe with French nukes, with or without the US.

Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, Denmark, and now the Czech Republic will host French nuclear-armed Rafales. 1/ Image
France holds 290 warheads, Britain 225. Their combined arsenal totals 515 weapons against Russia's 5,580 and America's 5,225.
Without Washington, Russia alone outguns Europe 11-to-1 in warheads. Macron's plan makes those 515 European weapons unpredictable enough to matter. 2/
Under Macron's "forward deterrence" plan, French Rafale jets carrying tactical nukes will rotate secretly through allied bases across Europe.
Britain's four Trident submarines and France's four ballistic-missile subs will maintain a continuous at-sea deterrent. 3/
Read 12 tweets
May 25
Gen. Hertling: Trump keeps insulting NATO for not coming to the rescue in Hormuz, but this is not what NATO was built for.

NATO is designed mainly for collective defense in the Euro-Atlantic region — not a sudden Gulf naval operation. 1/
Hertling: If the U.S. Navy, the most capable naval force in the world, is hesitant to escalate its own direct maritime role.

Why would NATO ask European nations to rush into a more dangerous mission while they are already supporting Ukraine? 2/
Hertling: Coalition warfare requires consultation and trust, and we have broken trust with NATO.

You cannot surprise allies diplomatically and militarily, stumble into an operation without strategy or communication, and expect immediate participation. 3X
Read 5 tweets
May 25
Europe wants an envoy to talk to Putin. The EU still has not agreed what Europe wants to say.

Kyiv asked Europe to be present. Europe is debating red lines first. — The New York Times. 1/ Image
Europe cut political contact with Russia after Feb 2022. Now even the idea of talks is back.

That change is not diplomacy, but a symptom of a vacuum in the process. 2/
The U.S. has run peace talks for months. Progress stalled.

Washington got pulled into the Middle East again after the joint U.S. Israeli strike on Iran. 3/
Read 12 tweets
May 25
Tugendhat, Conservative MP: "The Kremlin is at war with Europe and its allies in Beijing are helping."

Russia has been conducting warlike acts against every European democracy for years, but Britain is asleep at the wheel — The Telegraph.

1/ Image
2006 — Litvinenko poisoned in London.

2018 — Skripals poisoned with Novichok in Salisbury.

2024 — GRU plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO Papperger. Same year, incendiary devices disguised as pillows sent through DHL, nearly brought down a cargo plane over Europe.

2/
Estonia spends 3.4% of GDP on defence, committed to 5.4% by 2026-2029. Poland: 4.5%, rising to 4.8%. Lithuania: 4%, committed to 5-6%.

Britain: 2.4%.

Tugendhat: We have chosen not to believe in the devil. But he is alive and walks among us.

3/
Read 7 tweets
May 25
Russia wasted $40M just to destroy garage in Bila Tserkva, Kyiv region.

The city budget of Bila Tserkva is $70M

Russia fired the same system at Lviv and Dnipro with inert warheads.

Russia launches it not for physical damage, but to intimidate the West — Reuters. 1/
Oreshnik is an intermediate range hypersonic ballistic missile.

The name means Hazel Tree because of payload geometry. 2/
Oreshnik can carry multiple warheads that hit different targets at once. That is MIRV logic.

MIRVs are typical for ICBMs. Russia is pushing that concept down into regional range. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 25
Czech President Pavel: if Russia's violations of NATO airspace continue, the alliance will have to shoot down unmanned, or manned , aircraft.

Russia does not understand nice language. They mostly understand the language of power. — The Guardian. 1/ Image
Pavel proposed asymmetric responses: switching off Russia's internet or satellites, cutting Russian banks from the global financial system.

"Not killing people — but sensitive enough to make Russia understand this is not the way they should go."

2/
Pavel on how Russia calibrates its provocations: When I asked them why they do provocative actions — overflights, close encounters over battleships in the Baltic — their answer was 'because we can.'

That's exactly the kind of behaviour we allowed.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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