Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 6
Putin’s meat grinder update — Russia lost 35,203 troops in April alone with almost no territorial gains to show.

More than 70,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded in just 2 months of spring. No major Ukrainian city captured. Front lines largely unchanged, United24. 1/ Image
Russia’s “spring offensive” stalled almost entirely in Donetsk.

More than 2/3 of Russian attacks are concentrated there, with losses exceeding 400 soldiers per km² while failing to fully occupy the region. 2/
Kremlin has so little to present that Russia reduced the military part of its May 9 parade.

Fewer vehicles, fewer weapons displays — while Putin even discussed a possible ceasefire around Victory Day. 3/
Read 6 tweets
May 6
Ukraine is building a Hague tribunal for Putin, Lukashenko, and Russia’s top leadership — while demanding over $1T in reparations from Russia.

Iryna Mudra, deputy head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office: “Accountability is not a subject of bargaining in peace talks,” EP. 1/ Image
Russia repeatedly demanded immunity.

During talks in 2022 and in its recent 28-point “peace plan,” Moscow pushed for lifting sanctions, ending court cases, and granting amnesty for Russian leadership and war crimes. 2/
Tribunal moves from politics to implementation. Council of Europe ministers will finalize legal creation of the court in Chisinau on May 14-15. It will operate in Hague.

Mudra: “A tribunal for Putin.” 3/
Read 12 tweets
May 6
Putin now spends weeks in bunkers, bans officials from using internet-connected phones, and fears assassination after Iran’s supreme leader was killed in a US-Israeli strike.

Russian elites increasingly discuss what happens after him, Times. 1/ Image
Kremlin fears Ukraine could track Putin through Moscow’s surveillance system.

After Israel used cameras to monitor Iranian officials, Russia restricted mobile internet across Moscow, where 250,000 CCTV cameras operate. 2/
Putin’s approval fell from 77% in December to 65% in April — the lowest since the invasion began — as war losses and economic pressure intensify. 3/
Read 8 tweets
May 6
In 1973, the Arab oil weapon worked once and broke within months. Iran built one that doesn't break.

Mines, drones, and small boats now hold 20% of global oil hostage in the Strait of Hormuz — and the US Navy has not pried them loose — Gregory Brew, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
20% of global oil and 20% of global LNG sit trapped in the Persian Gulf, alongside helium, aluminum, and urea.

US gasoline crossed $4 a gallon and may break $5 by late May. Global oil demand is falling for the first time since COVID. 2/
Since Feb 28, Iran has hit 20+ ships in waters around the strait — Joint Maritime Information Center.

Mines, antiship ballistic missiles, drones, and swarms of fast boats. Decades of investment, deployed with little effort. 3/
Read 10 tweets
May 6
Only one ground-launched missile in Europe reaches deep into Russia today. It is Ukrainian.

Russia's Kinzhal hits Warsaw, Berlin, Munich. From Kaliningrad — London, Paris, Rome. Europe's own answer won't arrive until the 2030s — Financial Times. 1/ Image
Trump canceled the Tomahawk deployment in Germany, but the gap predates him. Europe outsourced deep-strike to Washington for decades.

Pistorius, German defence minister, warned the cancellation would be "very unfortunate and detrimental" for Europe. 2/
DPS — missiles with 1,000–3,000km range and pinpoint targeting. They destroy a bomber on the runway, a submarine in port, a drone factory before launch.

Western military official: "You want to be able to strike a Russian drone factory before they send 500 drones at us." 3/
Read 13 tweets
May 6
One year in, 76% of voters are unhappy with Merz and their coalition. He promised to restore growth, but got Trump tariffs and an energy shock.

Yet abroad he’s taken a harder edge, openly arguing with Trump and pushing support for Ukraine, – DW. 1/ Image
Merz came in weakened. The Bundestag did not elect him on the first ballot.
Before that, he broke two promises: he cooperated with the far right on a vote, then reversed a pledge not to take on debt. 2/
Then he ran into a coalition designed to block itself.
Merz campaigned on reversing Scholz’s center-left course. The SPD’s incentive is to preserve it. The “reforms” became compromises or drafts. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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