Stubb: 35,000 Russian soldiers killed per month won't end this war. Economic strain won't end it either.
What ends it: the Russian population turning against it. Drones hit St. Petersburg and Moscow. Kids lose their summers in Crimea. Gas lines. Internet shutdowns.
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Stubb: Ukraine's long-range strikes took down 40% of Russia's oil refining capacity.
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Stubb: Ukraine needs more Patriots — over 100 civilian buildings hit just the other night, civilians dying.
Europeans and Americans need to work on this together.
Europe is preparing for the once-unthinkable — defending the continent against Russia with little or no US help.
NATO's plans from a year ago assumed the US would carry nearly 40% of the warfighting burden. This share now almost certain to shrink after year of lost trust in Trump, — FT. 1/
The shift is driven by a string of shocks.
Trump's threat to take Greenland by force, cancelled US troop deployments, a national security strategy hostile to Europe, and recriminations over the lack of European support for his war in Iran. 2/
Replacing US assets — intelligence, air defence, refuelling, reconnaissance — needs faster spending. Germany hits 3.5% of GDP by 2029, but France and the UK are off track at ~2.5% and 2.7%, and even Berlin lacks a long-term funding plan. 3/
EU’s 21st sanctions package could hit 90 more Russian banks, pushing banned lenders past 100 — over half of Russia’s internationally connected financial institutions.
A confidential European report warns of an explosive banking crisis, United24. 1/
Russia’s Economy Ministry cut GDP growth forecasts: 2026 to 0.4% from 1.3%, and 2027 to 1.4% from 2.8%.
The report says 10% of corporate loans look questionable; in 2025, bad retail loans at several large banks hit 15%. 2/
More than 500,000 Russians declared bankruptcy, up nearly one-third from the previous year.
State-sponsored programs pushed over 13mn Russians to hold at least 3 loans at once. Cash outside banks rose over 17% YoY to more than $243bn. 3/
Ukraine’s Patriot gap is getting worse. Kyiv used to intercept roughly 1/3 of Russian ballistic missiles, sometimes more.
Last week the rate fell below 20%. This week, during Russia’s attack on Kyiv, Ukraine did not shoot down any ballistic projectiles, Bloomberg. 1/
Rutte: Allies do not have an endless supply of missile interceptors.
There is a limit to the amount of interceptors that are in NATO territory, he said before NATO leaders meet in Ankara. But NATO is working from every angle to produce more. 2/
Zelenskyy: The United States and Europe have enough strength to stop this terror.
He will meet Trump in Ankara on Wednesday as Trump reengages on Russia’s war after months focused on Iran and after a Saturday call with Putin. 3/