Applebaum: 90–95% of Ukraine's weapons are now either made in Europe or made in Ukraine. Ukrainians make most of their own drones — around 4 million last year and 7 million this year, maybe more.
They're becoming more and more self-sufficient in what they can produce. 1/
Applebaum: There's now a 20 km wide zone on the front line fully controlled by drones. Ukrainians can see every Russian person, tank, or vehicle that enters it.
Crossing is nearly impossible. That has effectively frozen the front — Russia is no longer able to move forward. 2/
Applebaum: Ukraine will soon be able to export its drone and defense technology. Right after the Iran conflict broke out, Zelenskyy was in the Middle East talking to Gulf state leaders.
Gulf states are sovereign countries — they can talk to whoever they want to talk to. 3X
Prof. Michael Clarke: This [US-Iran deal] is not a peace deal. It is an exchange of memoranda, basically an agreement to keep talking for 60 days under a ceasefire.
Trump is selling it as a breakthrough, but it is only a pathway toward a possible deal. 1/
Clarke: Iran may not sign on Trump’s timetable. Tehran has every reason to delay, embarrass him, and show it is not playing to his agenda.
Iran has a long memory for humiliating U.S. presidents through timing. 2/
Clarke: The hard issues are still unresolved: Hormuz, enriched uranium, nuclear limits, frozen assets, sanctions relief and Lebanon.
The key fight will be sequencing — what Iran gives first, and what it gets in return. 3/
Rutte: Ukraine is killing or seriously wounding 30,000–35,000 Russians a month. The front line is stable, Russian advances halted.
Russia has growing problems refilling the gaps in its armed forces, not just to advance, but to maintain the fight in Ukraine. 1/
Rutte: These numbers are staggering. 30,000–35,000 a month means Russia loses in 3 weeks what it lost in Afghanistan in 10 years in the 1980s.
In 5 weeks, Russia loses what America lost in Vietnam in 15 years. That's what Ukraine is inflicting on Russia's military right now. 2/
Rutte: We all want this war done. Zelenskyy is willing to tango — willing to get to the negotiating table.
But you need two to tango. And Vladimir Putin so far is not. Ukraine didn't ask for this war — they have to defend themselves, and they are extremely successful at it. 3X
Russia may have lost more than 70% of its combat-ready Tu-22M3 bombers since 2022.
Around 33–34 were combat-ready before the full-scale invasion. Today, only 9–10 may remain operational.
Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 in June 2025. — U24.
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Operation Spiderweb destroyed 12 Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya, Belaya and Dyagilevo airbases in June 2025.
Three more crashed in the Irkutsk region alone — in 2024, 2025, and now June 2026. In total, Russia may have lost or had damaged 24 of these bombers since 2022.
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Russia stopped producing the Tu-22 in any variant in 1993. No replacement program exists.
The spare parts base is so limited that even minor damage can lead to an aircraft being written off or cannibalized for parts.
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Timothy Snyder: The memory war is far more comfortable for Polish politicians than the real one.
They get to say: we're right, we're innocent. I know the history. But you start with what's happening now, not memory. Skip that, and you start from a falsehood.
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Snyder: Treat Ukrainians as partners and allies — even when they make mistakes.
Remember that every day they lose people in this war, partly so that Poland can keep living normally.
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Snyder: Judging Zelenskyy's decision to name a unit after UPA without the context of nearly four and a half years of war would be a mistake.
This is the longest war of this century, longer than World War I — it stirs emotions the West struggles to understand.
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