Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 19
Russia can no longer keep its combat aircraft safe in occupied Crimea. A Ukrainian drone costing about $10,000 destroyed a Su-24M bomber worth millions at Saky airfield.

The bomber was minutes from taking off to hit Ukraine when two drones caught it on the ground — United24. 1/
Oleksandr Pivnenko, commander of Ukraine's National Guard, announced the strike on July 16 and released footage of the operation by the Omega Special Purpose Center.

Two strike drones hit the Su-24M as crews readied it at Saky for another mission against Ukraine. 2/
The first drone struck the nose of the Su-24M bomber. The second hit the area around its fuel tanks and destroyed the aircraft on the ground.

Omega prepared for about three weeks and coordinated the strike with Ukraine's Air Force and Security Service. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 19
Fire Point's Flamingo cruise missile reaches twice as far as the Tomahawk and carries a larger payload at half the cost. Its wings are filled with Styrofoam.

Shtilerman: "They need to fly for 15 hours. Anything beyond that is a waste of money." — The Atlantic.

1/ Image
Fire Point now produces roughly 200 long-range drones a day and up to three Flamingo cruise missiles a day. Its missiles reach Siberia.

Nine European countries plus Ukraine just announced a joint anti-ballistic missile coalition — with Fire Point's FP-7x as its basis.

2/
Shtilerman on Project Freyja: "It's not America that decides whether Europe can defend itself. Europe is building its own shield."

Denmark bypassed more than 20 of its own laws to partner with Fire Point.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 18
FT: Germany is studying Ukraine’s war experience to adapt its own army.

The Bundeswehr is learning from Ukrainian soldiers about drones, counter drone defense, deep strikes, force organization, procurement and rearmament. 1/ Image
Christian Freuding, Germany’s land forces chief, says Ukrainian soldiers bring unmatched combat experience and the scale of an 800,000 strong force. He says European and Ukrainian security remain inextricably linked. 2/
Germany now brings Ukrainian troops to its training grounds. Several dozen soldiers have shared practical lessons on drone use and counter drone defense with the Bundeswehr. Freuding called the experience “extremely valuable.” 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 18
Ukraine’s 20-somethings are reshaping its war machine and displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense.

A Defense Ministry staffer in her early 20s found Denmark had earmarked the wrong shells for Ukraine and secured 15,000 long-range rounds, NYT. 1/ Image
The staffer works under Oleksii Antoniuk, 24, deputy head of the ministry’s cooperation department.
Oleksii: “If not for her, this wouldn’t have happened.”

Young Ukrainians under 30 are gradually displacing a Soviet-era old guard in defense. 2/
The shift runs through Ukraine’s war machine.

Twentysomething engineers design drones, young entrepreneurs turn prototypes into production lines, and recent graduates at the Defense Ministry cut red tape to speed weapons to the front. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 18
Applebaum: Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 partly as a direct challenge to NATO and the United States.

Moscow wanted to prove there was no Western alliance, that Ukraine was not a real country, and that Europe and America would not come to its defense. 1/
Applebaum: Russia wanted to show that it alone was the sovereign power in Eastern Europe and would decide what happened there.

Instead, it was surprised: the United States and a united Europe pulled together and proved that a democratic world still exists. 2/
Applebaum: Negotiations will become possible only when Russia decides to stop fighting and accepts that it cannot achieve its main goal—the destruction of Ukraine as a nation.

Russia has not reached that point. Putin has never withdrawn that objective. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 18
Applebaum: The war with Iran was clearly a war of choice. Israel had proposed this kind of action to previous US presidents, and they declined.

They understood the immediate danger to international shipping and especially to the oil and gas industries. 1/
Applebaum: Trump now appears to regret the war, or at least has no interest in continuing it.

He is seeking an agreement that could resemble — or even be slightly worse than — the Obama-era deal, while the claim that Iran was about to get a bomb does not add up. 2/
Applebaum: Trump failed to account for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or retaliating against Gulf states, and then expressed surprise.

Yet anyone who had studied a war with Iran over the past two decades had already identified both risks as obvious possibilities. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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