Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

May 9
Trump expected another Venezuela — days, a toppled regime, a victory lap.

Instead Iran mined Hormuz, shut 20% of global oil flows, and turned gas prices and polls into the real front.

Iran does not need to win militarily. Iran needs to make the exit humiliating — The Atlantic. 1/Image
Trump can sell almost any paper as a win. He cannot sell a war with no ending.

The White House is still waiting for Iran to answer a one page memorandum that extends a cease fire, not a treaty. 2/
Gas prices and polls do not wait. Republicans get the complaints at the pump, not in Situation Room briefings.

Trump wants the war to end before it wrecks a midterm year. 3/
Read 9 tweets
May 9
Applebaum: Ukrainian drone technology now lets Kyiv control the frontline almost completely.

Ukrainians can see everything, making it very hard for Russians to move, and, by Ukrainian counts, kill more Russians each month than Russia can recruit. 1/
Applebaum: Ukraine’s long-range drones are now repeatedly hitting major Russian targets far beyond the border.

Refineries, pumping stations, and other oil-and-gas infrastructure, producing huge black smoke and knocking big facilities out for long periods. 2/
Applebaum: Putin and the regime have become paranoid about Ukraine’s ability to hit Moscow and maybe even target leaders.

That is why the internet keeps going down in Moscow and other cities and why, around the May 9 parade, it is almost completely shut. 3/
Read 7 tweets
May 9
Former Russian PM Kasyanov: There is no real threat to Putin's life from inner circle, but Putin is increasing his security because problems are growing.

Attitudes toward the war and Putin’s regime are changing. 62% of Russians want to stop the war and move to negotiations.

1/
Kasyanov: Victory Day has always been a major date for Putin, and he has used it a lot. The parade sends a strong signal to the world.

I think we may hear him speak about ending the war soon, but only on his own terms. Still, the situation is moving and changing.

2/
Kasyanov: Ukraine has an advantage in drone attacks at all ranges. But the key now is transatlantic unity: Europe sees an aggressor and a victim.

Trump’s administration sees two guilty sides. Why should Ukraine make concessions?

3/
Read 6 tweets
May 9
Putin: Russian soldiers are confronting an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc. And despite this, Russia’s heroes are moving forward.

The great feat of the victorious generation inspires our soldiers carrying out the special military operation today. 1/
Putin: No matter how military technology and methods of combat change, the main thing remains unchanged: people decide the fate of the country.

Russia’s success rests on moral strength, courage, valor, unity and the ability to endure any trial.

2/
Putin: Russia has a common goal. Every Russian makes a personal contribution to victory — both on the battlefield and in the rear. Russia’s cause is just.

Russians are together. Victory has always been and will always be Russia’s. Glory to the victorious people!

3X
Read 5 tweets
May 8
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi: Mobilization must change because war itself changed.

Drones and robotic systems reshaped the battlefield, making old mass-army models obsolete. For the first time in history, robots entered war at scale.

1/ Image
Zaluzhnyi: Russia tried to break the battlefield deadlock with new technology and tactics, but the result stayed the same: old-style offensives in a machine war only turn soldiers into expendable manpower that constantly needs replacement.

2/
Zaluzhnyi: After losing battlefield initiative, Ukraine had to react to Russia’s moves across the front, often at high cost.

Russia built a strategy around grinding down Ukrainian forces through massive losses, betting casualties would break Ukrainian society first.

3/
Read 17 tweets
May 8
Xi believes time will deliver Taiwan. Each year, Beijing builds economic, military, and diplomatic leverage that he expects to make unification unavoidable.

The first major test comes in 2028 — Amanda Hsiao and Bonnie Glaser, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
Beijing's confidence comes from 2025. It hit Trump's tariffs with rare-earth export curbs and watched Washington back down.

DeepSeek showed China can match US AI models at a fraction of the cost. 2/
Inside Taiwan, the KMT-TPP majority is blocking a $40B special defense budget.

They want a smaller arms package from the US instead. That cooperation keeps a China-friendly 2028 ticket alive. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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