Former NATO Military Committee Chair Bauer: I tried four times to reach out to Gerasimov [Russia’s top general] through letters. He said he was busy with the “special military operation.”
Later he said: you are part of NATO, NATO is part of the problem, I can’t talk to you.
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Bauer: We saw the Russian buildup for invasion of Ukraine start in spring 2021. They left vehicles and ammunition behind. In the end, 195,000 troops were around Ukraine.
We saw vehicles, hospitals, ammunition — then came the blood. I knew within 3 hours when the invasion would start.
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Bauer: NATO is not at war with Russia. There is no Article 5 situation.
But in cyber, one could say we are at war. In the information domain, we are at war. In space, we are at or very close to war. We are no longer at peace, but still in a gray zone.
Browder: I know Putin pretty well. He's not a guy who comes with his tail between his legs. He's ready to commit the most horrific crimes to show he is a brutal, terrible adversary.
Just because he's getting hammered doesn't mean he's going to give up. Not him. 1/
Browder: My prediction — there will never be a peace treaty. Never any negotiation. It will wind down slowly, the way the Korean War wound down.
The Korean War is still technically going on right now. Nobody's firing, they have a demilitarized zone. It's an ongoing war. 2/
Browder: Ukraine will never give up more territory. Putin will never admit this was a mistake — loses power, goes to jail, probably gets killed.
Putin has incentive to carry on. Ukrainians have an existential incentive to survive. It ends along the current front lines. 3X
Browder: Trump has proven himself on Putin side at every step since returning to power. Cut all military aid. Voted with Russia at the UN against Ukrainian resolutions
His Oval Office outburst against Zelenskyy. His demand that Ukraine surrender territory Russia couldn't win 1/
Browder: He mutters ambiguous things, but he hasn't changed his position. Putin hasn't changed. Nothing has changed.
Except Ukraine's position on the battlefield. Ukraine's drones destroying Russian economic capability. Ukraine causing absolute havoc in Crimea. 2/
Browder: Those are things Trump has no control over. Those are the things changing the outcome here.
Why has he been on Putin's side? I have my ideas. Many people I know have their ideas. I won't speculate on air. But it would be completely unrealistic to think he's changed. 3X
Polish FM Sikorski: Our response to Ukraine naming a unit after UPA heroes was disproportionate.
It personally humiliated Ukraine's president. If President Nawrocki had asked me, I'd have advised differently, Tvn24. 1/
Sikorski: Nawrocki essentially deprived himself of the ability to talk with the president of a country at war.
When Zelenskyy got the soldiers' request, the response should've been: fine, UPA fought the Soviets, but it also killed Poles — pick a better name. TVN24.
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Sikorski: An equivalent move would have been naming Jasionka airport "Airport of UPA Victims." That would have settled the score. 3/
Ukraine fields Europe's only million-strong, combat-tested army and its fastest-moving drone industry.
The question is whether Europe can credibly defend itself without Ukraine. It cannot, writes Aliona Hlivco in Kyiv Independent. 1/
Ukraine has developed Europe’s most combat-experienced military, one of the world’s most innovative defense-tech sectors, and a new doctrine of warfare.
From battlefield drones to AI targeting, Ukraine is pioneering capabilities NATO and EU states are only starting to grasp. 2/
The war has transformed Ukraine from a consumer of European security to a net provider of it.
Brussels is increasingly discussing how Ukraine can integrate into Europe’s political and security structures before full EU membership is completed. 3/
Russia may be preparing a provocation in the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO, The Guardian.
Putin wants to see whether the US would defend Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Ukraine's strikes reach Moscow and St Petersburg, and Russia wants to hit back somewhere it can. 1/
Latvian intelligence: We see indications that Russia prepares military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.
Russia cannot open a second front. It may use hybrid actions — missiles, drones — to signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or face your own problems. 2/
Putin may test US support for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in a desperate effort to throw the dice as Russia struggles in Ukraine.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the Chatham House: Moscow will seek horizontal escalation or do something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose. 3/