Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 2
"Who could have imagined Colombians fighting North Koreans in Kursk region? Our Colombians beat them well enough."

Captain Hamlet Avagyan, an Armenian, commands a Ukrainian assault regiment built mostly of foreign fighters, UkrPravda. 1/ Image
Captain Hamlet Avagyan leads the R.U.G. assault regiment under Khartiia, a Ukrainian National Guard unit.

Foreign fighters make up most of the unit. In August 2024, R.U.G. joined Ukraine's surprise push into Russia's Kursk region. 2/
Born in Yerevan, Armenia. In 2008, Russia invaded Georgia. Avagyan went to fight — he had family there.

Later he ran special operations in Baghdad and Syria. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Jul 2
Petraeus: No western country is aggressively pursuing what needs to be pursued. A major German defense CEO belittled what the Ukrainians have done with drones.

Europeans will spend more on defense, but buy legacy platforms. Vested interests in buying what we've always bought. 1/
Petraeus: A senior army leader said they're giving 500 drones to a tank brigade. That is not revolutionary change.

Revolutionary change is you actually do away with part of the tank brigade and create entire unmanned forces that can do what we see in Ukraine so impressively. 2/
Petraeus: People asked during Iran if we could take Kharg Island. Of course — 82nd Airborne, Special Ops, Marines. But could we protect that force?

We don't have adequate deployable counter-drone capabilities. A single drone hits a single ship and everything freezes in place. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 2
Petraeus: Ukraine is about to isolate Crimea. Gasoline so short they won't sell it to civilians. Tourists who came for beaches are trying to get home any way they can

Kerch Bridge rail no longer works. Ferries knocked out. Land bridges destroyed. Pontoon bridges now targeted 1/
Petraeus: Ukraine took down Russia's air defenses steadily. Russia pulls them to Moscow, vulnerabilities open everywhere else. Moscow refinery hit three nights running, out at least six months.

They're going after fuel storage, refineries, gas lines from Siberia to the west. 2/
Petraeus: Real prospect now that Putin might need a cessation of hostilities himself. Oil sanctions reimposed, national welfare fund running out of money.

Crimea isolated, front lines cut off, economy crushed, all of this could force Putin to recognize he should end this war. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 1
Hodges: Not the time to take the foot off the gas on Crimea. Pour it on.

The West should help isolate Crimea — knock out bridges, ferries, all ways in and out, make it unusable for Russian forces. Airfields, air defense systems, logistics sites — targeted relentlessly. 1/
Hodges: I was criticized for being too optimistic about Crimea. I was so sure the US and UK would provide what Ukraine needed.

I was wrong — we did not support Ukraine as we should. So here we are now. Ukraine without too much help from us is doing this on their own. 2/
Hodges: When you combine the strategic destruction of oil and gas infrastructure, Russia can't pay for this anymore, with the operational destruction of logistics, at some point Russia will seriously consider stopping.

They can't sustain it at this level deep into next year. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 1
Hodges: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, I think that's an absolute fairy tale.

None of the oligarchs are suffering. Nobody in the upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg is going to suffer. These are people as spoiled as anybody else. 1/
Hodges: The 90% that are not upper class — they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better.

People counting on Russians being able to just endure more and more are misreading the actual situation. People are starting to wonder what the hell's going on. 2/
Hodges: What will really be interesting is whether the Kremlin has to mobilize the population of Moscow or St. Petersburg.

If all the privileged young people suddenly find themselves putting on that green uniform of the Russian army, enthusiasm for this war will really drop. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 1
Ex-UK Defence Attaché to Moscow, Foreman: Deterrence holds, nuclear and conventional. The biggest threat is unconventional cyber and political interference

Putin doesn't want to escalate from a local war to a regional war with NATO given the uncertainty of what Trump would do 1/
Foreman: I don't exclude Russia escalating versus Ukraine or mobilizing for one last heave.

Putin is very concentrated on winning as he sees it in the Donbas. But as long as deterrence is credible and capable and we communicate it clearly to Russia, we should be safe. 2/
Foreman: What we lack are clear channels of communication with Russia. They've been cut over the last few years, we shout past each other.

The Americans said the highest risk is unintended escalation from an incident that spins out of control. We have to talk to them somehow. 3X
Read 5 tweets

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