Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Jul 31
Historian Sarah Paine: This is the Russian business model. Say your business is doing well. One of Putin's security-service enforcers comes to your house and says: I want a monthly payment from you.

That's a mafia shakedown, going back in Russian history forever. 1/
Paine: Putin's own circle owns the refineries Ukraine keeps striking, destroying Russian wealth. Putin wants Donbas, he wants Crimea. For what?

Russians need a legal system that lets them build wealth and live decent lives at home, not more territory. 2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Jul 31
Sikorski: In January 2022, Russia made a brief military move into Kazakhstan to interfere in its succession. I believe China told Russia: get out right now, or we'll cut off trade. Russia obeyed.

It can't prosecute this war without trade with China. 1/
Sikorski: China could actually force Russia to end the war. My guess is the war suits China just fine.

Russia sells China gold, and grows more dependent on it every year. What's not to like about that? 2/
Sikorski: Like Weimar Germany, and Tsarist Russia in World War One, Putin's Russia is running out of the resources to keep fighting. I think he probably has enough for another year or so. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31
Sikorski: Putin has a couple of cards left. One is mobilization, risky for him politically.

The other — after destroying 80% of Ukraine's electricity and heat capacity, hope another hard winter leaves only nuclear power to survive it. 1/
Sikorski: The relationship between Trump and Zelensky, choppy in the past, seems better now. There are rumors Trump's envoys might visit Kyiv for the first time.

Even some MAGA figures have come around on Ukraine, and Republicans back tougher sanctions on Russia. 2X
Source:
Read 4 tweets
Jul 31
Today, a Russian-run agent tried to kill Ihor Obolenskyi, Khartiia’s commander, in Kharkiv.

Yuriy Butusov, journalist: A 69-year-old agent walked up from behind, aimed a Makarov from 3 meters, and pulled the trigger. In panic, he had not chambered a round. 1/ Image
Image
Butusov: The suspect, 69-year-old Kharkiv resident Henadii Parfeniuk, had a spotter watching Obolenskyi and directing him to the place where the commander would appear.

Parfeniuk stayed on the phone with the organizer through earphones while he waited. 2/
Butusov: When Obolenskyi walked outside, Parfeniuk received the order and came up behind him and his bodyguard.

He aimed a Makarov pistol at them and pulled the trigger, but the shot failed. Butusov says Parfeniuk had not chambered a round. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Jul 31
Theresa May: It cannot be business as usual with Russia. It wasn’t after the Salisbury attack, and certainly not after what has happened in Ukraine.

People often ask me what Putin is like. Once a KGB man, always a KGB man. 1/
May: Russia and Putin are under significant strain. The economy has been hit hard, and Russia is losing significant numbers of personnel, both killed and wounded.

Ukraine is rapidly improving its ability to fight, and the balance is shifting. 2/
May: The shifting balance does not mean negotiations will happen soon. They may still be some time away.

But the war cannot end with Russia winning. We cannot allow Russia to win. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Jul 31
Zelenskyy asked Trump for Starlink access to hit Russian missile launchers inside Russia.

Trump would have to get Musk to lift SpaceX’s ban on using Starlink there.

Ukraine can use Starlink at home, including occupied Crimea, but not inside Russia, The Atlantic. 1/ Image
Trump told Zelenskyy he would think about it and speak with Musk. He gave no timeline and no answer.

Zelenskyy also asked to meet Musk during the U.S. trip. Musk said no. 2/
Ukraine’s long-range drones now use other guidance: onboard computers, AI navigation, and other systems.

That works well enough against big targets: refineries, warehouses, logistics hubs. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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