“The only thing worse than no tanks in Red Square are burning tanks in Red Square.”
A European diplomat in Moscow captures how fast Putin’s authority is collapsing inside Russia, writes Mark Galeotti in The Times. 1/
For the first time in decades Putin cancelled armored vehicles from Saturday’s Victory Day parade. Moscow is ringed with Pantsir-S missile launchers on rooftops, electronic warfare stations and drone jammers. 2/
The mere risk of an attack changed Putin’s plans. There is no evidence Kyiv planned a strike on the parade — but that did not matter. 3/
Patriot batteries guard the runway at Rzeszów airport — this small regional airfield 55 miles from Ukraine became the main hub for military aid to Kyiv.
Up to 40 cargo flights per day. Wounded soldiers treated here before flying to European hospitals — El País. 1/
On February 24, 2022 Ukraine closed its airspace. Rzeszów went from 10-12 commercial flights per day to 20-40 large cargo planes daily — Hercules, Boeing 747s, Antonov An-124s from around the world. 2/
The airport had 300 staff. It now has 550. Fuel consumption jumped from 100,000 liters per week to 500,000-600,000 liters per day. Lines of trucks stretched endlessly. 3/
Fiona Hill: We are in a realm of magical and wishful thinking.
Iran is another personalized standoff between Trump and whoever his counterparts are, with each side trying to show who has the edge. Everyone else is watching this spectacle with real alarm. 1/
Hill: It will be very hard for any other state to corral Trump into a negotiation track.
This is all about how Trump thinks he is being viewed on the world stage: whether he looks strong, in control, and able to impose his will. 2/
Hill: Trump does not think about consulting allies because he does not think of them as allies. They are supplicants.
He sees them as subcontractors in his project, not partners in a larger enterprise. 3/
Kasparov: America is no longer the rock people knew. For dissidents it was a beacon; for everyone else, a force to reckon with.
Today all bets are off. The world built around US military, economic and political power is over, and America’s role will be reconsidered. 1/
Kasparov: NATO is dead. It is not just irrelevant; it refused to take part in the war it was built for.
Russia was the original threat, and when the real challenge to European security came from Russia, NATO waffled, ducked, and categorically refused to join. 2/
Kasparov: Europe is now building defense plans without America. Once Europeans erase old plans that included the US and build new ones, why bring America back?
America lost its reputation, and the geopolitical damage will be felt for years, maybe decades. 3/
Kellogg: Iran has two options. A deal written with disappearing ink, or military operations continue.
They use a mosaic defense, decentralizing command and control across 31 districts. We do not really know who is in control, so keep eliminating the Revolutionary Guards. 1/
Kellogg: I strongly advocate going after Kharg Island and putting a provisional government in charge.
There are Iranian opposition groups that could lead. Otherwise Tehran will keep doing what is in its playbook: talk, fight, talk again, and fight again. 2/
Kellogg: I do not see this ending soon unless we change the game plan and take mosaic warfare away from Iran’s advantage.
They will keep throwing mosquito boats and small fleets at us. One day they could get lucky, and we lose a tanker or a warship. 3/
Pompeo: Since October 7, the grip of Russia, Iran, and China on the Middle East has become much smaller.
Russia’s position in Damascus has collapsed, Hezbollah is badly diminished, Hamas is weaker, and Tehran is now in a much more difficult position. 1/
Pompeo: If we stop halfway, Iran gets another 30 to 50 years of extortion power.
This action was not only proper but necessary, because a nuclear-armed Iran with its conventional system intact would soon have made this kind of operation impossible. 2/
Pompeo: The IRGC is failing to meet payroll and bonuses, and the sanctions squeeze is choking the regime financially.
Systems like this can look incredibly strong until they suddenly crack. People said the same thing about the Soviet Union until the wall came down. 3/