Gordon Brown: a special tribunal, modelled on Nuremberg, will prosecute Putin's inner circle for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
The Council of Europe and EU agreed on the mechanism this month. — The Guardian.
1/
Why not the ICC: the ICC cannot prosecute Russia's leaders for the crime of aggression because Russia is not party to the Rome Statute, and Russia's UN Security Council veto blocks any referral.
The special tribunal fills that gap.
2/
The ICC has already issued arrest warrants for Putin, former defence minister Shoigu, and General Gerasimov — who masterminded the bombardment of Ukraine's infrastructure.
The new tribunal adds the crime of aggression itself to the charges.
3/
The coming funeral of the Russian Empire, which I believe is not far away, is the result of the heroism of the Ukrainian people and, yes, of Zelenskyy’s political leadership. 1/
Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war. It is an imperial war, the logical continuation of Russian imperial history.
Without Ukraine there is no Russian Empire, and Putin understands that with his imperial sixth sense. 2/
Kasparov: Wars end only when the causes that created them are eliminated.
The cause here is Russia’s imperial structure. Until that structure is broken, the war will not truly end, because the empire will keep trying to return. 3/
Kasparov: Lavrov’s threat to foreign diplomats is not normal diplomacy. It shows Russia has problems and is trying to solve them with threats and bluff.
Bluff has always been Putin’s weapon: weak cards, higher stakes, and the hope that Europe’s hands will shake. 1/
Kasparov: Europe still cannot say the magic formula: Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.
Everyone understands it behind the scenes, but politically they still refuse to define the strategic goal of the war, so they keep maneuvering around the real issue. 2/
Kasparov: The real meaning of these “negotiations” is simple: sell part of Ukraine’s territory to buy Europe a pause.
That is the essence. Nothing else can really be negotiated while Putin’s goals remain unchanged and Russia still wants empire. 3/
Fukuyama: Ukrainians have systematically taken out Russian air defenses in Crimea with medium range drones and missiles. The peninsula depends on a narrow land route through the isthmus and the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine now reportedly controls the isthmus from the air and has repeatedly attacked the bridge. 1/
Fukuyama: It would not be surprising if Russia decided within the next year that its position in Crimea was untenable and began withdrawing forces, just as it has already withdrawn much of its Black Sea Fleet. Such a withdrawal would be an enormous political defeat for Putin. 2X
That’s quite clear now that Europe is preparing for a future without the US. Where America is no longer the center of the Western alliance.
Trump spent years demanding loyalty from allies. Instead, Europe is slowly building systems designed to function without Washington, FP. 1/
At first, European leaders tried to keep Trump happy.
UK PM Starmer offered an unprecedented second state visit. NATO Chief Rutte called Trump “daddy.” European governments boosted defense spending and increased support for Ukraine. 2/
Problem is that concessions didn’t buy predictability.
The US withdrew 5,000 troops from Germany, imposed tariffs on allies, and excluded European governments from key decisions during operations against Iran. 3/