Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 26
Kasparov: Wars end when the cause that produced them is removed. In Ukraine, that cause is Putin’s regime and the imperial policy of Putin’s Russia.

As long as that regime survives, the war will not end. That is the whole answer. 1/
Kasparov: Trump is about Trump, and about money for Trump and his entourage. No real peace talks are possible there.

Witkoff and Kushner are not diplomats. Ukraine was right to refuse territorial concessions, because those concessions could have been catastrophic. 2/
Kasparov: European politicians already understand that the threat now reaches even NATO countries

EU is preparing for war, but still fears saying it aloud. Only the military defeat and collapse of Putin’s regime give a chance for peace in Europe and a settlement in Ukraine 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 26
Kasparov: “Russian Taiwan” is a metaphor, but the split is already real.

Hundreds of thousands of Russians have broken with Putin’s Russia, including legally, yet got no new status. Their documents expire every day. Europe needs one cardinal solution: recognize that we exist. 1/
Kasparov: “Russian Taiwan” is not about moving everyone to some island. Territory is secondary

The point is legal recognition for people who cut ties with Putin’s Russia and are stuck in limbo, instead of begging country by country for visas, exemptions, and documents. 2/
Kasparov: If Europe gives us legal status, we must offer something in return.

Nothing in Russia will change while Putin stays in power, and Putin stays in power while Russia can keep waging war. Only Ukraine’s victory gives us that historic chance, so we must help Ukraine win 3X
Read 4 tweets
Apr 26
Trump follows only the attack half of Machiavelli. He knows how to strike first, but not how to survive the counterstrike.

Iran shows it: he launched the war fast, but eight weeks later he faces higher oil prices, a shaky truce, and falling polls. — Jason Willick for WP.

1/ Image
Machiavelli praised bold moves when timing matters.

Trump followed that rule in June, betting a short war with Iran would show strength, break Tehran, and boost him at home. 2/
Instead, the war dragged on. Trump said it would last 4–6 weeks.

Eight weeks later, fighting froze into a fragile ceasefire. Iran’s rulers still hold power. Missile and drone stockpiles still remain. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Apr 26
McFaul: It is extremely dangerous for Trump to make escalatory threats unless he is prepared to follow through.

Threats you do not deliver do not help negotiations. And if he does deliver them, that could be catastrophic for getting any deal with Iran in the future. 1/
McFaul: A better strategy is to start lower-level talks with experts, including on Iran’s nuclear program.

Build something technical and build momentum. Right now we are toggling between immediate breakthrough and nothing, and that impatience is undermining negotiation. 2/
McFaul: I see no evidence that the Iranian regime is pragmatic. It has more leverage right now because all it needs to do is survive.

For Tehran this is existential. For our side it is not existential; it is about electoral politics and that puts pressure on the American side 3/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 26
America has been running a global security system with 1990s assumptions and 2020s constraints.

Trump can change it only by forcing tradeoffs: focus on China, cut peripheral wars, and rebuild industrial power at home — A. Wess Mitchell, Foreign Affairs. 1/ Image
The model was to be strong everywhere, all the time.

After 9/11 the US added 30 years of expeditionary warfare and let shipbuilding, ammo, and nuclear recapitalization decay. 2/
Mitchell uses a 1904 analogy.

Britain’s admiral Jacky Fisher cut far flung naval stations, concentrated around the British Isles, and pushed regional defense burdens to allies.

Clausewitz called it concentration. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 26
Defense analyst Michael Clarke: This is not really a ceasefire. It is just a reduction in violence so Lebanon does not spoil the bigger US-Iran deal.

Israel may keep its response down for a couple of weeks, but at some point it will take the brakes off. 1/
Clarke: Israel is fighting a war within a war. Its aim in southern Lebanon is to push up to the Litani River and create a zone free of Hezbollah fighters.

It will not empty northern Israel again. If that means moving into Lebanon to create that zone, it will do it. 2/
Clarke: Iran can tell Hezbollah to cool it, but it cannot get rid of Hezbollah now even if it tries.

Hezbollah makes its own weapons, is bigger and stronger than the Lebanese army, and runs southern Lebanon through the state and down to the village level. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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