Kasparov: If Russia crosses into Estonia or Finland — NATO formally needs Article 5, Brussels, the American general reports to Washington.
The question is: will Trump not be playing golf at that moment?
1/
Kasparov: I see zero signs that Russia is ready for any negotiation process — not in propaganda, not in the economy, not in statements from Putin, Lavrov or Peskov.
Maybe I missed something. But so far we see exactly the opposite vector.
2/
Kasparov: NATO as we knew it no longer exists. The infrastructure remains, the internal ties remain, but it will all work differently now.
For the first time since the Cold War, NATO faces a real threat of military confrontation with Russia. And in fact, it is already happening.
Queues stretch up to nine miles beyond Crimea's checkpoints. 79% of hotel bookings cancelled. Fuel sold on Telegram at $25 a gallon. Blackouts last for days. Water available one hour a day.
Putin's "sacred" peninsula has become a burden. — The Telegraph.
1/
Ukraine struck 50 energy facilities in Crimea between July 1–8. Hit 76 shadow-fleet tankers in the Sea of Azov this week. Long-range strikes jumped 1,150% in 2026.
Six choke-point bridges under attack. Russian authorities suspended all fuel sales to private individuals.
2/
Fedorov: "In the near future, Crimea will become an island. For the Russians, the real hell is just beginning."
The fuel crunch has spread to at least 78 of Russia's 83 federal regions. Police and National Guard deployed to petrol stations to prevent confrontations.
3/
Browder: Trump is both U.S. president and a businessman.
It wouldn't be a leap to say Putin could have made lucrative business offers in exchange for less support for Ukraine. I don't see a better theory for what's happening.
1/
Browder: The U.S. told Gulf allies not to buy Ukrainian drone technology.
I have heard this from sources I trust, and I believe Trump did not want Ukraine to benefit. Europe should instead invest in Ukrainian defense technology through joint ventures and production.
Browder: Ukraine has damaged 25–40% of Russia’s oil refining capacity.
If it doubles that, it can tell Russia: stop bombing our civilians, and we stop hitting your refineries. Ukraine has also turned the front line into a drone kill zone where crossing is deadly.
1/
Browder: We should not underestimate Russia.
It still has a much larger population, deeper financial resources, and bigger ammunition stockpiles than Ukraine.
Even if Russian forces in Crimea collapse, Ukraine may still lack the troops needed to retake it.
2/
Browder: Most people follow the crowd. They do not act until disaster hits.
America stayed out of World War II until Pearl Harbor. Nobody redesigns a faulty aircraft until after it crashes. That is where we are today.
For the first time since 2022, Ukraine has a coherent theory of victory. Instead of grinding down the Russian army at huge cost, Kyiv now destroys Russia's capacity to wage war.
It targets the revenue, fuel, and the supply lines that feed the front — Christian Caryl, FP. 1/
Former DM Zagorodnyuk calls this strategic neutralization. Render Russian forces ineffective by cutting their support, rather than storming their positions.
The proof of concept is the Black Sea Fleet. Naval drones drove it from Sevastopol without a single Ukrainian warship. 2/
The same logic now targets Crimea. Ukraine is severing the supply lines that feed Russian troops there with ammunition, fuel, and food, rather than storming the peninsula.
Serhii, a battalion commander in Sloviansk: I think we can cut Crimea off by the end of the summer. 3/
Browder: Putin started a war because he stole so much money that he became afraid of his own people.
The easiest way to stop people turning against you is to create a foreign enemy. That is Machiavelli 101. 1/
Browder: If Putin used a nuclear weapon, he still would not win the war.
Ukraine is too large and too dispersed. China and the Global South would step away, and Putin would become a fully defined war criminal. 2/
Browder: This war is more likely to end like Korea than with a peace agreement.
Ukraine will keep making the war more painful for Russia until both sides stop attacking each other across a fortified front line. Nobody will negotiate peace. 3X