Russian forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Bucha during a month of occupation in 2022, leaving bodies in the streets and a mass grave by the church.
What happened there is why Ukrainians refuse to give up occupied land in any peace deal — Dominic Pino, Washington Post. 1/
Ukraine retook Bucha so fast that Russian forces could not cover their tracks. The town looks like an American suburb, with stores, sidewalks, and a shopping mall.
It keeps a monument bearing the names of the murdered, where such a town should mourn fallen soldiers. 2/
Russia's account keeps shifting, from denying the murders happened to calling them a false-flag. Ukraine calls it genocide.
Pino has walked Dachau, a site built for genocide. Bucha is different. People there live ordinary lives, send kids to school, and watch TV before bed. 3/
Syrskyi: Putin ordered to calculate options for offensive operations, including from Belarus, to seize Kyiv and other territories.
I do not think Belarus’s leadership will now dare give its territory as a launchpad, but we account for this scenario.
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Syrskyi: Russia is testing forced contract signing in Penza region. Mobile groups gather men and force them to sign.
Moscow is adapting this model to spread it across Russia. They also recruit prisoners, people under criminal cases, and mercenaries to grow the army.
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Syrskyi: Russia’s grouping has not decreased: 722,000 troops with operational reserve.
But active assault directions fell from 13 to 7, with 4 main ones. Our strikes on logistics have cut Russia’s offensive potential. Enemy activity is down by about one-third.
Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.
Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/
Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.
Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/
Holland: Putin is fatally wounded by what's happening in Ukraine. That battle is going to be lost for him. But that makes him very dangerous, he might do something to distract from failure.
A village grab in Estonia or Lithuania testing Article 5. Or cutting North Sea cables. 3X
Ex-Ukrainian FM, Kuleba on Lukashenko entering the war: Can't exclude it. He was close, exercises, running around in uniform. Then someone explained where the strikes would land. He reversed
Putin is pushing him again. Lukashenko understands, this is the end of his regime 1/
Kuleba on Poland-Ukraine rivalry: Not immediately, but it will go there. Poland will compete with money, we with security capabilities and audacity.
Together we'd dictate our will to Western Europe. I believed in that story very strongly. We are competitors, unfortunately. 2/
Kuleba: Poles are exactly the same as us. Two nations traumatized by history. Both built identity on the myth of victimhood — everyone hurts us, everyone's against us.
Now we've grown up, built muscles, and want revenge on everyone. This is not pragmatism, unfortunately. 3X
Kasparov on Georgia: An inclined plane has only one direction — down — and the speed always increases. After the 2012 elections, Georgia started sliding backward.
Today it is much closer to Russia and Belarus than to Ukraine or Moldova. I fear the situation is already tragic. 1/
Kasparov: Ivanishvili never stopped being a Russian oligarch. Putin says there are no former KGB agents — same applies here. No former oligarchs. Those connections are preserved.
Georgia's behavior is because they orient toward Putin and believe his power shields them. 2/
Kasparov: Power transition in Georgia will not happen through voting. Like Russia, like Belarus — it will be a collapse when the number of people ready to take to the streets exceeds critical mass.
100,000 on Rustaveli Avenue is a beautiful picture. It is not enough. 3X
Kasparov: The imperial idea sits deeper than communism in Russia. Communist dictatorship lasted 74 years. The imperial idea has lived for centuries. It mutates, transforms, you can't simply pull it out
You need a shock and I believe there is only one such shock that will work 1/
Kasparov: The only thing that can make Russians understand the empire is dead — a Ukrainian flag in Sevastopol. Crimea is the sacred core of the imperial idea.
Liberation of Crimea is exactly the shock needed for Russians to realize: it's over. Start again from scratch. 2/
Kasparov: After defeat, Russia faces a choice — become China's vassal or start negotiating with everyone. Recognize crimes, pay reparations, build equal relationships with all neighbors.
Stop being a permanent incubator for dictators. There is no third option for Russia. 3X