Hodges: Not the time to take the foot off the gas on Crimea. Pour it on.
The West should help isolate Crimea — knock out bridges, ferries, all ways in and out, make it unusable for Russian forces. Airfields, air defense systems, logistics sites — targeted relentlessly. 1/
Hodges: I was criticized for being too optimistic about Crimea. I was so sure the US and UK would provide what Ukraine needed.
I was wrong — we did not support Ukraine as we should. So here we are now. Ukraine without too much help from us is doing this on their own. 2/
Hodges: When you combine the strategic destruction of oil and gas infrastructure, Russia can't pay for this anymore, with the operational destruction of logistics, at some point Russia will seriously consider stopping.
They can't sustain it at this level deep into next year. 3X
Hodges: This fairy tale about Russians being able to suffer better than anybody, I think that's an absolute fairy tale.
None of the oligarchs are suffering. Nobody in the upper class in Moscow and St. Petersburg is going to suffer. These are people as spoiled as anybody else. 1/
Hodges: The 90% that are not upper class — they're good at suffering because they've never had it any better.
People counting on Russians being able to just endure more and more are misreading the actual situation. People are starting to wonder what the hell's going on. 2/
Hodges: What will really be interesting is whether the Kremlin has to mobilize the population of Moscow or St. Petersburg.
If all the privileged young people suddenly find themselves putting on that green uniform of the Russian army, enthusiasm for this war will really drop. 3X
Russian forces massacred hundreds of civilians in Bucha during a month of occupation in 2022, leaving bodies in the streets and a mass grave by the church.
What happened there is why Ukrainians refuse to give up occupied land in any peace deal — Dominic Pino, Washington Post. 1/
Ukraine retook Bucha so fast that Russian forces could not cover their tracks. The town looks like an American suburb, with stores, sidewalks, and a shopping mall.
It keeps a monument bearing the names of the murdered, where such a town should mourn fallen soldiers. 2/
Russia's account keeps shifting, from denying the murders happened to calling them a false-flag. Ukraine calls it genocide.
Pino has walked Dachau, a site built for genocide. Bucha is different. People there live ordinary lives, send kids to school, and watch TV before bed. 3/
Syrskyi: Putin ordered to calculate options for offensive operations, including from Belarus, to seize Kyiv and other territories.
I do not think Belarus’s leadership will now dare give its territory as a launchpad, but we account for this scenario.
1/
Syrskyi: Russia is testing forced contract signing in Penza region. Mobile groups gather men and force them to sign.
Moscow is adapting this model to spread it across Russia. They also recruit prisoners, people under criminal cases, and mercenaries to grow the army.
2/
Syrskyi: Russia’s grouping has not decreased: 722,000 troops with operational reserve.
But active assault directions fell from 13 to 7, with 4 main ones. Our strikes on logistics have cut Russia’s offensive potential. Enemy activity is down by about one-third.
Historian, James Holland: Ukraine can now isolate the battlefield. Anyone that moves gets killed. Supply lines attacked 25-50 miles behind the front — bridges, roads, assembly areas. Deep strikes into Russia's oil.
Putin can have a media blackout. He cannot hide that destruction. 1/
Holland on Crimea: Right now I can't see what will prevent Ukraine from regaining it. They're isolating Crimea — effectively besieged. Russians will have to give it up.
Putin's myth that Crimea has been "forever Russia" is nonsense. It's been Turkish too. It keeps changing hands. 2/
Holland: Putin is fatally wounded by what's happening in Ukraine. That battle is going to be lost for him. But that makes him very dangerous, he might do something to distract from failure.
A village grab in Estonia or Lithuania testing Article 5. Or cutting North Sea cables. 3X