Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 12 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/
The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/
2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/
3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/
Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/
4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/
5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/
6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/
There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/
Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X
If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Apr 12
World wars start the same way: leaders overestimate themselves, underestimate consequences, and launch wars without a clear plan — like Putin.

To stop this, leaders must talk, cooperate, and not fear looking weak. Even small wars can spiral into global ones — The Economist. 1/ Image
In 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II started a war without a plan and misjudged the outcome. It ended in world war.

Putin expected 2–3 days — got years of war and mass losses. Trump expected an easy Iran war — got a global economic shock. 2/
Before WWI, German nationalism mixed state worship and military cult.

Today, Russia and China act the same. Great powers again see each other as threats — US and China now mirror Britain and Germany. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Apr 11
Putin let Assad fall in 2024. He will not let Iran fall.

Assad was a client whose survival depended on outside force. Iran generates costs for America without requiring Russian exposure. From the Kremlin's perspective, it is irreplaceable — Nicole Grajewski, NYT. 1/ Image
The US war in Iran handed Moscow three things at once: higher oil prices, suspended sanctions on Russian crude, and fractured Western attention.

Peskov this week: "The Americans have a lot of other things to deal with, if you know what I mean." 2/
Iran held on for weeks, generating enormous costs to the global economy. Even if ceasefire holds, Iran is battered, poorer, more isolated.

If fighting resumes, the cumulative weight of strikes, sanctions, and internal unrest could tip Iran toward implosion. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Apr 11
Russia sent 3 submarines to map and probe Britain's undersea cables and pipelines.

Two were secret Gugi seabed-warfare vessels, built to sabotage infrastructure that carries the country's data, gas, and electricity — Tom Sharpe, The Telegraph. 1/ Image
One Akula-class nuclear attack boat. Two specialist subs from Gugi — Russia's classified Main Directorate for Deep-Sea Research, separate from the regular navy.

They operated north of the UK for over a month. Mission: map critical underwater infrastructure for potential sabotage. 2/
Oct 2023: Balticconnector pipeline between Finland and Estonia — cut, supplies down for weeks. Nov 2024: two Baltic telecom cables severed. Christmas 2024: Estlink-2 power cable and 4 data lines offline.

Russia probes European seabed infrastructure year after year. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 11
A Ukrainian heavy bomber drone platoon on Pokrovsk front flies up to 30 sorties a day — delivering ammo to infantry, dropping bombs, mining enemy paths, even running recon.

Russia retaliates with up to 30 guided bombs daily on their positions — ArmyInform. 1/ Image
Price, head sergeant: "We drop a 10kg bomb — the bushes disappear, and so does everyone hiding in them. FPV drones can't always reach them. We can."

"We also hit artillery positions — good targets, they damage our infantry and drone crews badly." 2/
Tiger: "Logistics is in bad shape. All access roads are heavily surveilled. We can lift a lot and carry far. Our priority is infantry — ammo, water, supplies."

"If we don't deliver what they need, the enemy reaches us." 3/
Read 10 tweets
Apr 11
Bolton: JD Vance doesn't want to come back from this meeting [Iran negotiations] as the Neville Chamberlain of this conflict.

The ceasefire with Iran was a mistake. It gives the Iranians a breathing space. It’s not clear to me there's any prospect for progress. 1/
Bolton: I think given Trump's panic that we're very likely at the end of it, although people won't want to admit that. He just wants to be able to declare victory, which he's tried to do several times already erroneously. He'll find another way to declare victory and move on. 2/
Bolton: Iran was moving ahead with the nuclear program as fast as they could anyway. If regime change were really something Trump had wanted, he could have had an orderly process after the 12-day war. There's no evidence that happened. 3X
Read 5 tweets
Apr 10
Europe’s defense is shifting from Brussels to a Germany-Poland core, with France and the UK supplying nuclear and expeditionary support.

As the US signals Europe must carry primary responsibility by 2027, while Russia could be ready to attack NATO within 5 years, FA. 1/ Image
Germany becomes the backbone of European defense.

Berlin plans $750B in military spending over 4 years, now holds the world’s 4th-largest defense budget, and will set standards as US influence over European security declines. 2/
Poland becomes the frontline force.

Warsaw spends 4.5% of GDP on defense, rapidly buying artillery, armor, and air defense to slow any Russian advance, prioritizing speed and domestic production over European suppliers. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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