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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 16

Europe is preparing to lead a multinational military force inside Ukraine as part of a White House–backed peace plan.

The plan offers “Article 5–like” security guarantees without NATO membership and would deploy European troops, with U.S. backing — The Guardian. 1/

The proposed force would operate inside Ukraine, helping regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces, secure the airspace and support safer seas. UK, France, Germany and 8 other countries called it a “coalition of the willing,” supported politically and operationally by Washington. 2/

Ukraine would keep a standing army of about 800К troops. The U.S. would lead a ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism, providing early warning if Russia prepares another attack.
European states would sign legally binding commitments to respond to a future invasion. 3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 16

Former Swedish PM, Carl Bildt: Since Alaska, Trump has essentially endorsed the Russian demand.

He wants Ukraine to give up territory Putin failed to conquer despite throwing his entire might against it for three and a half years. 1/

Carl Bildt: I don't think there are any paper security guarantees that can replace what we need to do.

Real security is not documents, but Ukraine's own defensive capabilities supported by European finance. 2/

Carl Bildt: It's a fairly bizarre document [US NSS]. It has an extremely distorted view of what's happening in Europe.

It expresses concern about the fate of democracy in Europe, but not the fate of democracy in Russia or China. It sees Russia as effective for stability. 3/

Read 4 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 16

Drones dominate Ukraine’s trenches, but they won’t decide a U.S.–China war.

Ukraine fights a land war without air control. Pacific fight would hinge on fighters, missiles, ships and AWACS across thousands of miles — not quadcopters, writes Justin Bronk for Foreign Affairs.
1/

Cheap drones thrive in Ukraine because the war is static, land-based and attritional.

Neither side controls the air. Front lines stretch 600+ miles. Infantry fights within 6–12 miles.

These conditions do not exist in the Indo-Pacific.

2/

In Ukraine, drones cause up to 70% of daily battlefield casualties.

But Russia breaks Ukrainian defenses with 500–3,000 kg glide bombs, dropped weekly by Su-34s from 40+ miles away.

Bombs, not drones, crack hardened positions.

3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 16

“Just ten metres — but f*ck, the pain. I thought I might die there.”

Ania, a 34-year-old Ukrainian marine born with one leg, remembers dragging herself through mud toward help after her Jeep slammed into a tree near the front line — The Times. 1/

Russian drones had shut the skies. No air ambulance. The nearest hospital was almost an hour away — an eternity in a war where minutes decide survival.

What saved her was an 8-foot-wide metal box on wheels, hidden under camouflage: a Stabnet. 2/

Inside that narrow container was something Ukraine’s war increasingly lacks: time.

Warmth. Sterility. Blood. Ultrasound. Oxygen.

“Being treated there,” Ania said, “gave me the feeling that everything was going to be OK.” 3/

Read 11 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 15

What’s new after peace talks in Berlin?

Ukraine and the U.S. moved close to NATO Article 5–style security guarantees, but they fight over territory — especially Donbas, write Axios and Reuters.

1/

Security guarantees moved. Territory issues didn’t.

U.S. officials say talks made “clear progress” on guarantees and claim “90%” of issues are done.

Zelenskyy says the sides still hold “different positions on territory.”

2/

Washington wants Ukraine to withdraw from about 14% of Donbas it still controls and convert it into a demilitarized “free economic zone.”

Zelenskyy: why wouldn’t Russia move in the minute Ukraine pulls out?

3/

Read 8 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 15

Kaja Kallas: Europe pressures Moscow and boosts support for Kyiv: €27B in military aid this year and 2M artillery rounds.

We can’t slow down. Any peace deal needs strong security guarantees, since Ukraine is pushed to drop NATO.

1/

Kaja Kallas: Donbas is not Putin’s endgame — if he gets it, he will take more. Only Ukraine can set the terms of any deal.

Concessions must come from the aggressor, not the victim. There is no moral equivalence between the two sides.

2/

Kaja Kallas: Our call with Witkoff and Kushner barely worked. Tech failed, so we had no real talks on the reparations loan.

Belgium’s worries are clear, and others are ready to share the burden. If we move ahead, the risk shifts to Europe, not Belgium.

3/