Russia’s elites start to believe Putin is leading the country into a dead end — but still expect him to escalate the war, not stop it.
One businessman close to the Kremlin: “There is profound disappointment in Putin,” The Guardian. 1/
Putin publicly projects calm and control.
Days after reports claimed he was hiding in a bunker fearing assassination or a coup, Kremlin TV showed him casually driving his former schoolteacher to dinner at the Kremlin carrying flowers in jeans and a light jacket. 2/
Behind the image, cracks are spreading.
Russian officials, business figures, and Western intelligence sources describe growing frustration over the stalled war, economic decline, internet shutdowns, and “senseless, self-destructive decisions.” 3/
Former Ukrainian FM Dmytro Kuleba: China is carrying out an ultra-slow absorption of Russia, starting from the side closest to it.
For Siberian peoples, China is understandable — and they see that where China is, there is welfare and order, while where Russia is, everything is the opposite. 1/
Kuleba: “Russian” is not really an ethnic belonging — it is imperial belonging.
That is why someone who is clearly not ethnically Russian can still shout: “I am Russian, I am for Russia.” The empire works through identity, not blood. 2/
Kuleba: Before 2014, the myth was that Russia’s claim to Ukraine was legitimate and Ukraine had to belong to Russia.
After 2014, the myth became that Ukraine could not defend itself in case of a larger Russian attack. 3/
Kasparov: Putin is not just at war against Ukraine. He is at war against Europe, European institutions and the free world.
Dictators lie about what they have done, but very often they tell you exactly what they are going to do. Putin has for decades. 1/
Kasparov: Putin’s goal was, is and will be to restore the Russian Empire and push NATO back to 1997 borders.
Ukraine is the main target now, but not the ultimate goal. Europe still treats this as hypothetical. It is not a threat — it is a menace. 2/
Kasparov: Putin needs a success story: proving NATO is dead because Article 5 does not work.
Narva, Daugavpils, maybe Vilnius are ideal targets. It is not about occupying Europe; it is about showing NATO will debate, hesitate and fail to respond. 3/
Kasparov: Nothing will happen in Russia unless Ukraine wins the war. Period. Ukraine must win, Russia must lose.
Any war that ends “okay” for Russia strengthens the regime; only Ukrainian victory can open the road to change by proving the empire is dead. 1/
Kasparov: This is not just Putin’s war or one inner circle’s war. The mistake after 1991 was thinking the problem was only the communist virus.
The real problem is the imperial virus, mutating in Russia for centuries, and it will not die without defeat. 2/
Kasparov: Ukraine saved Europe. If not for Ukraine, there would be no serious NATO discussion here — there would be another Russian nationalist congress.
Europe was ready to sell Ukraine down the river, and Ukrainian resistance changed everything for the continent. 3/