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Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Dec 2, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

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https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

Putin to reject Trump’s peace offer. New Russian conditions demand concessions from the U.S., not just Ukraine:

“Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, we take it and tell him to screw himself, because we don’t like any of it.”
1/

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1863549523760476451

The Russian conditions for negotiations

1. Reversal of U.S. Support for Ukraine:

Cease the provision of advanced long-range weapons to Ukraine [So, it is finally hurting! Great!]

Remove President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power [How? Kill him?]

2/

2. Territorial Concessions

Ukraine must formally cede four occupied regions to Russia [This is impossible as it would violate the Ukrainian Constitution]

Commit to never joining NATO [The same here] 3/

3.High-Level Global Negotiations:

Trump and Putin must meet to discuss a “general agreement” on the global order, security and geopolitics, the Middle East and Russia-China relations

[This is delusional non-sense as the U.S. doesn’t have formal power over other countries] 4/

Acknowledge Ukraine as part of Russia’s core sphere of influence

[Basically, surrender Ukraine to Russia and make it a province. Won’t happen!] 5/

4. Sanctions Relief:

Full rollback of Western sanctions imposed on Russia

6/

5. Recognition of Russia’s Position in Global Affairs:

A long-term peace agreement must validate Russia’s global strategic interests

[I think they mean Russian right to dictate other countries policies] 7/

6. Broader Conditions for Peace:

Address other international flashpoints and establish a new global framework for peace and security

[New United Nations? With Russian at the chair seat?] 8/

There are explicit threats if demands are not met:

Escalation, including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences and a radiation zone in Ukraine

[Russia is nuts and Trump will have his plate full with these idiots] 9/

Continued strengthening of Russia’s economy and alliances (China, Iran, North Korea) through confrontation

[At least, they are honest about who they are - barbarians who want to get their way by force, and so must be stopped by force]

10X

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

If you want to support Ukraine, please consider donating to the Kyiv School of Economics to support war affected students.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1862846682058129856

You can contribute to KSE University here foundation.kse.ua/en/donate-to-e…

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More from @Mylovanov

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21

Five years into the largest war in Europe since 1945, Putin still has not declared war on Ukraine. He calls it a "special military operation."

Russia has mobilized hundreds of thousands and turned its whole economy toward the front. The refusal is deliberate — United24. 1/

Because the word war changes how people act. Call it war, and Russians start to fear mobilization, shortages and death, and they panic.

An operation sounds clinical and contained, handled by professionals and over soon. It let Russians carry on while the army kept fighting. 2/

Because Moscow expected a quick win. In February 2022 it claimed Kyiv would fall in three days and the Kyiv regime would collapse.

A declared war signals an uncertain, costly fight. An operation implied confidence, a short timeline and a job Russia could finish on schedule. 3/

Read 9 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21

Kuleba: Name one Ukrainian politician of national significance who builds their rating on anti-Polish slogans. You can't. In Poland there are many.

And the president leads them, not with open slogans, but with actions that make life worse for Ukrainians in Poland and at home. 1/

Kuleba: Poland's core interest: if Ukraine falls, Poland is next. Every Polish politician believes this. Ukraine's core interest: EU membership.

These two issues must be encapsulated and protected from the political storms that will keep tearing at our countries. 2/

Kuleba: We must remember 2022 with gratitude, Poles opened doors, hearts and arms when it defied all logic of prior relations

But now Ukraine must support Ukrainians in Poland. These constant scandals will accelerate their assimilation. People will stop being openly Ukrainian 3/

Read 6 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 21

Bolton: Iran deal requires Israel to withdraw all forces from Lebanon. I see zero chance of that.

But it gives Iran, through Hezbollah, the ability to punish Israel and have Trump and Vance criticize the Israelis for defending themselves. A powerful political weapon. 1/

Bolton: This deal is a powerful tool to split the Great Satan from the Little Satan.

Vance's vitriol toward Israel, saying it was 'built with American money', won't sit well with Israelis or Americans who view Israel as a key ally. Vance has embraced the role of architect here. 2/

Bolton: Compare the rhetoric of JD Vance on Iran to Rob Malley and Barack Obama. It's very hard to tell the difference

Trump jokingly said he might blame Vance if this doesn't go well. If Vance wants this deal, fine, but if he doesn't, he'll have to find his own way out of it 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 20

Britain is building long-range missiles for Ukraine without U.S. components.

Washington has repeatedly delayed or limited the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow for strikes inside Russia.

Ukraine gets weapons no one in Washington can veto — FT. 1/

The project is called Brakestop.

The UK unveiled three prototype long-range strike missiles developed by MBDA UK, MGI Engineering and Rotron Aerospace.

After more tests this year, one or more could reach Ukraine by the end of 2026. 2/

The requirement is political as much as technical.

No U.S. components. No dependence on U.S. cartographic data. No American guidance systems.

The UK wants sovereign control over what it gives Ukraine and how Ukraine can use it. 3/

Read 10 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 20

Hodges: Putin's nightmare — momentum shifts irreversibly in Ukraine's favor. He loses oil and gas exports. Oligarchs push back openly. Europe begins stopping shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic and Black Sea.

When all of that converges — it's over for him. He'll know it. 1/

Hodges: Russia's professional military knows Putin's war has destroyed or severely damaged Russia's armed forces — even Russia's ability to defend itself.

I could imagine the military leadership at some point saying: this is enough. We want to accelerate to that point. 2/

Hodges: Minister Federov says the goal is 50,000 Russian casualties per month. Dramatic — losses that can never be replaced. Ukraine wants to accelerate the collapse.

Too many still believe Russia can't be defeated. That narrative doesn't reflect the reality on the ground. 3X

Read 5 tweets

Tymofiy Mylovanov

@Mylovanov

Jun 20

Hodges: The Kerch Bridge is a high-payoff target, not just logistically but psychologically. Destroying Putin's bridge would demolish morale and erode the false narrative of inevitable Russian victory

The Ukrainians will pick the right time. It will require a lot of explosive 1/

Hodges: Russia can't rebuild the Kerch Bridge quickly — especially if an entire span drops. There's a reason no bridge existed there before. Massive engineering undertaking.

The Ukrainians have already been degrading its defenses and weakening the structure systematically. 2/

Hodges: Ukraine's long-range precision strikes on Russia's oil and gas — this is the path to victory. When Russia can no longer export, that cuts off the only income sustaining the war.

It also proves to Russians that the Putin regime cannot protect them from Ukraine. 3/