Kasparov: My triad since day one of the full-scale war — Ukraine's victory, Russia's defeat, collapse of the empire. That is the only outcome this war can have.
Only the liquidation of Putin. No other options exist. While Putin is there, it is war. Only his liquidation. 1/
Kasparov: An empire cannot retreat. The moment an empire begins retreating — that is its end. This was true for Rome. It was true for every empire. Nothing new here.
It started with Crimea in 2014. It will end with Crimea. Putin and the Russian Empire have merged into one. 2/
Kasparov: Every lost war in Russia led to change. This war is lost — and worse than others because it's visible. The Crimean War was far away. Russo-Japanese was 8,000 km away.
In 1917, they hadn't even lost yet. A stalemate came and everything shattered into pieces. 3X
Ex-CIA officer, West: There is no chance of a coup against Putin. Russia is a security state built over 26 years with one purpose, keeping him and his strongmen in power.
300,000 Rosgvardia troops loyal to him. 30,000 elite protective service. All beholden to Putin. 1/
West: Prigozhin was never close. Had he reached Moscow, he'd have hit crack Rosgvardia units whose entire existence — pay, palaces, benefits — depends on Putin.
People say 2023 showed Putin was vulnerable. No, he wasn't. Prigozhin knew he had no chance of overturning him. 2/
West: Why did Putin insist on getting his assassin Krasikov swapped in 2024? Why did he greet him on the tarmac with a bear hug?
He wanted his entire inner circle to know — if you kill for me, I will take care of you. I will get you out. That's the loyalty he builds. 3X
Former NATO Military Committee Chair Bauer: I tried four times to reach out to Gerasimov [Russia’s top general] through letters. He said he was busy with the “special military operation.”
Later he said: you are part of NATO, NATO is part of the problem, I can’t talk to you.
1/
Bauer: We saw the Russian buildup for invasion of Ukraine start in spring 2021. They left vehicles and ammunition behind. In the end, 195,000 troops were around Ukraine.
We saw vehicles, hospitals, ammunition — then came the blood. I knew within 3 hours when the invasion would start.
2/
Bauer: NATO is not at war with Russia. There is no Article 5 situation.
But in cyber, one could say we are at war. In the information domain, we are at war. In space, we are at or very close to war. We are no longer at peace, but still in a gray zone.
Browder: I know Putin pretty well. He's not a guy who comes with his tail between his legs. He's ready to commit the most horrific crimes to show he is a brutal, terrible adversary.
Just because he's getting hammered doesn't mean he's going to give up. Not him. 1/
Browder: My prediction — there will never be a peace treaty. Never any negotiation. It will wind down slowly, the way the Korean War wound down.
The Korean War is still technically going on right now. Nobody's firing, they have a demilitarized zone. It's an ongoing war. 2/
Browder: Ukraine will never give up more territory. Putin will never admit this was a mistake — loses power, goes to jail, probably gets killed.
Putin has incentive to carry on. Ukrainians have an existential incentive to survive. It ends along the current front lines. 3X
Browder: Trump has proven himself on Putin side at every step since returning to power. Cut all military aid. Voted with Russia at the UN against Ukrainian resolutions
His Oval Office outburst against Zelenskyy. His demand that Ukraine surrender territory Russia couldn't win 1/
Browder: He mutters ambiguous things, but he hasn't changed his position. Putin hasn't changed. Nothing has changed.
Except Ukraine's position on the battlefield. Ukraine's drones destroying Russian economic capability. Ukraine causing absolute havoc in Crimea. 2/
Browder: Those are things Trump has no control over. Those are the things changing the outcome here.
Why has he been on Putin's side? I have my ideas. Many people I know have their ideas. I won't speculate on air. But it would be completely unrealistic to think he's changed. 3X
Polish FM Sikorski: Our response to Ukraine naming a unit after UPA heroes was disproportionate.
It personally humiliated Ukraine's president. If President Nawrocki had asked me, I'd have advised differently, Tvn24. 1/
Sikorski: Nawrocki essentially deprived himself of the ability to talk with the president of a country at war.
When Zelenskyy got the soldiers' request, the response should've been: fine, UPA fought the Soviets, but it also killed Poles — pick a better name. TVN24.
2/
Sikorski: An equivalent move would have been naming Jasionka airport "Airport of UPA Victims." That would have settled the score. 3/