New drones have played a major role in #HTS capture of #Aleppo 🧵
Photo/Video thread on:
- How HTS manufactures them on an industrial scale
- How HTS trains fighters to fly them
- How HTS targets high-value, strategic targets (senior regime commanders, artillery, tanks)
#Syria #Aleppo #Hama
Manufacturing: HTS is mass producing #drones using 3D printers to create parts they cannot buy and small factories in safe houses which are hard to target. Some are modified consumer drones (Mavic 3/Mavic Air) while others are kits #Syria #HTS
Drones are tested in small manufacturing facilities which are hard to target before being sent to fighters on the frontlines
Training: Video games and simulators are used, alongside tutorials in the field to train operators
HTS has focussed heavily on training specialised units and professionalising its forces over the past several years, even establishing a military academy based on Western training doctrines (see @jeromedrev and @E_of_Justice work for more details on training & re-organization)
Targeting: HTS #Shaheen (Falcon) brigades have focussed on targeting senior regime officers in both #Aleppo and #Hama before the main offensive push on the ground to create chaos
Over the weekend, HTS drone units killed the #SAA commander of its military security for #Hama, Uday Ghossah
HTS have also used their drone units to target high-value assets, including hilltop artillery positions, tanks, APCs and armoured vehicles, just as in #Ukraine (much of the #Syria Arab Army stock are old Russian T55s and T72s which similarly explode with even nearby FPV drone strikes)
#HTS have also begun using larger drones, including a turbojet model, to carry bigger payloads and go much further than FPV drones can fly on a single charge
The experimentation with larger drones represents a significant shift from previous drone usage in #Syria. While Syria was the first major armed conflict to see consumer drones armed by rebels, they have advanced significantly in the past 10 years
While there was lots of speculation and theories floating around about #HTS receiving training from #Ukraine earlier this year, no evidence has materialized. More likely, the proliferation of drone use is simply now a staple of modern conflicts whether in #Syria #Azerbaijan #Yemen or elswhere
Drones arent limited to #HTS either, the #SNA factions have also used FPV drones effectively to target large #SAA concentrations in eastern #Aleppo
HTS strike on a SAA regime officers building in Masyaf via @SaladinAlDronni
HTS appear determined to take #Hama, the fourth-largest city in #Syria. They have taken key towns like Taybat al-Imam (see below) just north of the city.
The #SAA was initially able to hold them off but given the poor organization and morale in the SAA its hard to see them continuing to hold Hama for much longer (#Latakia or #Damascus are a very different story)
Extremely useful list of all the town & villages captured in NW #Syria (as close as can be feasibly tracked) from #SyriaWeekly
Lots of misinformation and exaggerated claims of the rebels advance in #Hama today on here. For a very careful, empirical update, see @putintintin1's latest thread:
Sharaa's full interview w/ @RoryStewartUK & @campbellclaret is now online
Major take-aways / new information ⬇️
- -
Early life/Iraq/Al Qaeda:
- Says he went to Iraq to a) get experience as a foreign fighter to later use in Syria b) to defend Iraqis from foreign occupation
- Frames joining Al Qaeda in Iraq (somewhat euphemistically) as something that happened as the Iraqi insurgency consolidated & groups merged (we need more details on which group he first joined)
- Says he completely rejected the sectariansim & extreme violence of Zarqawi, and later Baghdadi
-Says he faced criticism from AQ hardliners while in prison for not being more sectarian
- Says he was deeply motivated by the Palestinian cause & the Second Intifada as a young man
- Says he read widely on the importance of Damascus & Syria as a young man for the region & humanity
2011- onwards:
-Confirms he crossed into Syria with 'just 5 or 6 men' and grew his organization (Nusra) 5000 member within one year
- Says he lost 1200 fighters in the Nusra - ISIS war (somewhat confusingly describes this as losing 70% of his fighting force)
- Says he avoided attacking civilian areas (w some notable exemptions)
Post-Assad Syria:
- Cites not only Singapore, but also Rwanda, Brazil, and Saudi as economic models to replicate (fortunately he also stresses that each country is unique & you cannot ignore the context & just copy/paste)
-Says he is optimistic about Trump's second term & understands he wants to improve America's economy & avoid conflicts in the Middle East
- But says opposes Trump's Gaza plans & says no country can remove Palestinians from their land
- Says he was a politician first in Idlib but recognizes that being a politician in Damascus is different
- Says he thinks he can keep hardliners on board through persuasion & dialogue on the right course
- Says he understands people want to know about his personal life, including his family & kids offering some details
-Says that different stages require different things: he started stepping out of the shadows in Idlib but was still in a state of war and will continue to do so now that the Syrian Civil War is (mostly) over
🇪🇬Ahmed al-Mansour, an Egyptian national in HTS has formed a new Islamist movement with the stated goal of toppling Egypt's President #Sisi, following the fall of #Assad in #Syria last month🧵
Egypt is the largest Arab country with more than 100 million people - any development there has enormous implications for the entire region
Mansour's new Islamist movement — “The 25 January Revolutionaries Movement" — has somewhat ironically chosen the old flag of pre-1952 #Egypt shown in the photo below
Mansour's movement calls for:
1- The overthrow of Egypt's President Sisi
2- The Egyptian Army to cease any political work
3- The release of all political detainees
4- The return of the principles of the January [2011] revolution & its goals
It further calls on "ministers, ambassadors, former workers in the government of Dr. Morsi ... to form a shadow government. The time is a time of political entitlement Egypt needs every sincere and honest person to fill the vacuum that will result after the fall of Sisi"
Using the hashtag “your turn, dictator,” (based on #Syria's “your turn, doctor” for #Assad), the movement has begun receiving some messages of support from Egyptians.
Two examples from Sinai and Upper Egypt attached below
-Thread based on my fieldwork, interviews, & primary source documents I have collected working on #HTS for many years, as well as insights from other experts who have spent time on-the-ground in the region
- Both #Jolani and #HTS are designated terrorist entities by the #UN #EU #US and others, and used to be directly part of both #ISIS and #AlQaeda
- The #UK and others are now examining de-listing but face major questions. HTS and Jolani have committed human rights abuses in the past & many Syrian minorities and those in the international community are rightly worried about whether HTS will be more pragmatic in the long-term
-While HTS have changed some policies in the past -before the offensive began - no one can say what they will do in the future once they feel more secure
#Syria
Frankly, Jolani has deep roots in the global jihadist movement and has the perfect CV of a veteran jihadist, despite what he may have done or said the past few years (more on that below)
- Jolani began as a foreign terrorist fighter and traveled to #Iraq in 2003 to join Al Qaeda
- He fought with Al Qaeda for two years before being imprisoned by the #US in Camp Bucca.
- He later served as an #ISIS comammander in #Nineveh and #Mosul before being dispatched personally by ISIS' leader Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi to set up an #ISIS affiliate in #Syria
-During #Jolani's time in Camp Bucca he met many of the leaders who went on to play leading roles in #ISIS
- #Jolani has been a prominently involved in global jihadist movement over the past two decades and that cannot be overlooked. He is now as influential as #Zarqawi or Abu Bakr al #Baghdadi but unlike these jihadist leaders he has shown a desire to engage in politics
- I spoke to many Syrian friends who have had their businesses/shops looted or ransacked. Unlike #Aleppo which was more organized, #Damascus was chaotic
- HTS offers a general amnesty to all #Regime military conscripts
-The White Helmets and others continue to rescue political prisoners from #Sednaya
- HTS/Jolani met with Assad’s Prime Minister to arrange power transfer
- The president of HTS' Syrian Salvation Government in #Idlib was tasked with forming a temporary government in #Damascus
-Little word yet on what role the Syrian National Army or local groups from the south of #Syria will play but all parts of Syrian society must be included. HTS is a designated terrorist group by the #UN, #EU, #US, #UK, #Canada, #Japan & many others - must work with others & form a unity government for all Syrians
- New photos of Jolani in Damascus show him touring around the city & the historic Ummayad Mosque, overlooking the city, meeting with civilians
The White Helmets are using K9 teams to find and rescue political prisoners who were trapped in underground cells and basements in #Sednaya
There are so many that are still trapped but many heartbreaking moments of families seeing their loved ones they havent seen in years or even decades #Syria
This is Mohammad al-Bashir, the president of the SSG in #Idlib who has been tasked with establishing a temporary government in #Damascus by HTS
I can imagine a future where Jolani tries to position himself as the real military power behind a semi-independent PM/council, similar to the system HTS established in Idlib and which Jolani said he would export to the rest of the country during his speech at the Idlib book fair (2024)
- Rebels have captured southern #Damascus suburbs, - Northern offensive are moving into the Damascus countryside and have entered #Homs
-Only #Latakia and #Tartus are safe for him now
After 14 years of killing, torturing, and bombing Syrians, #Assad is seeing it all come back on him
Its over. Assad and his father have killed, tortured, and bombed #Syria for decades, now they are being torn down
#Jaramam
Just spoke to friends in #Damascus. People are scared. Shops are closed, people are staying indoors, many of those who could afford to leave have already gone to #Lebanon or Latakia Tartus
New details on #HTS rocket-propelled drones being used to target the headquarters and commander centres of the #Assad regime 🧵
These UAVs have significantly larger payloads and ranges than the FPV drones we've seen before #Syria #Aleppo #Hama
First off, these drones have a much longer range and larger payload than what we have seen in the past & are likely domestically produced with simple equipment - a few details on preparation & targeting: