Broderick McDonald Profile picture
International Security & Conflict | Associate Fellow @KingsCollegeLondon ICSR | Fmr Advisor @GovtOfCanada Prev: @UNAOC, @Cambridge_Uni
Feb 11 4 tweets 2 min read
Sharaa's full interview w/ @RoryStewartUK & @campbellclaret is now online

Major take-aways / new information ⬇️

- -

Early life/Iraq/Al Qaeda:

- Says he went to Iraq to a) get experience as a foreign fighter to later use in Syria b) to defend Iraqis from foreign occupation

- Frames joining Al Qaeda in Iraq (somewhat euphemistically) as something that happened as the Iraqi insurgency consolidated & groups merged (we need more details on which group he first joined)

- Says he completely rejected the sectariansim & extreme violence of Zarqawi, and later Baghdadi

-Says he faced criticism from AQ hardliners while in prison for not being more sectarian

- Says he was deeply motivated by the Palestinian cause & the Second Intifada as a young man

- Says he read widely on the importance of Damascus & Syria as a young man for the region & humanity 2011- onwards:

-Confirms he crossed into Syria with 'just 5 or 6 men' and grew his organization (Nusra) 5000 member within one year

- Says he lost 1200 fighters in the Nusra - ISIS war (somewhat confusingly describes this as losing 70% of his fighting force)

- Says he avoided attacking civilian areas (w some notable exemptions)
Jan 11 9 tweets 6 min read
🇪🇬Ahmed al-Mansour, an Egyptian national in HTS has formed a new Islamist movement with the stated goal of toppling Egypt's President #Sisi, following the fall of #Assad in #Syria last month🧵

Egypt is the largest Arab country with more than 100 million people - any development there has enormous implications for the entire region

Mansour's new Islamist movement — “The 25 January Revolutionaries Movement" — has somewhat ironically chosen the old flag of pre-1952 #Egypt shown in the photo belowImage Mansour's movement calls for:

1- The overthrow of Egypt's President Sisi

2- The Egyptian Army to cease any political work

3- The release of all political detainees

4- The return of the principles of the January [2011] revolution & its goals

It further calls on "ministers, ambassadors, former workers in the government of Dr. Morsi ... to form a shadow government. The time is a time of political entitlement Egypt needs every sincere and honest person to fill the vacuum that will result after the fall of Sisi"Image
Dec 11, 2024 12 tweets 6 min read
Who is Jolani — and can he be trusted? 🧵

-Thread based on my fieldwork, interviews, & primary source documents I have collected working on #HTS for many years, as well as insights from other experts who have spent time on-the-ground in the region

- Both #Jolani and #HTS are designated terrorist entities by the #UN #EU #US and others, and used to be directly part of both #ISIS and #AlQaeda

- The #UK and others are now examining de-listing but face major questions. HTS and Jolani have committed human rights abuses in the past & many Syrian minorities and those in the international community are rightly worried about whether HTS will be more pragmatic in the long-term

-While HTS have changed some policies in the past -before the offensive began - no one can say what they will do in the future once they feel more secure

#SyriaImage Frankly, Jolani has deep roots in the global jihadist movement and has the perfect CV of a veteran jihadist, despite what he may have done or said the past few years (more on that below)

- Jolani began as a foreign terrorist fighter and traveled to #Iraq in 2003 to join Al Qaeda

- He fought with Al Qaeda for two years before being imprisoned by the #US in Camp Bucca.

- He later served as an #ISIS comammander in #Nineveh and #Mosul before being dispatched personally by ISIS' leader Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi to set up an #ISIS affiliate in #SyriaImage
Dec 9, 2024 12 tweets 6 min read
What is the situation in #Syria today? A thread 🧵

- I spoke to many Syrian friends who have had their businesses/shops looted or ransacked. Unlike #Aleppo which was more organized, #Damascus was chaotic

- HTS offers a general amnesty to all #Regime military conscripts

-The White Helmets and others continue to rescue political prisoners from #Sednaya

- HTS/Jolani met with Assad’s Prime Minister to arrange power transfer

- The president of HTS' Syrian Salvation Government in #Idlib was tasked with forming a temporary government in #Damascus

-Little word yet on what role the Syrian National Army or local groups from the south of #Syria will play but all parts of Syrian society must be included. HTS is a designated terrorist group by the #UN, #EU, #US, #UK, #Canada, #Japan & many others - must work with others & form a unity government for all Syrians

- New photos of Jolani in Damascus show him touring around the city & the historic Ummayad Mosque, overlooking the city, meeting with civiliansImage The White Helmets are using K9 teams to find and rescue political prisoners who were trapped in underground cells and basements in #Sednaya

There are so many that are still trapped but many heartbreaking moments of families seeing their loved ones they havent seen in years or even decades #Syria
Dec 7, 2024 4 tweets 2 min read
Assad is finished

- Rebels have captured southern #Damascus suburbs, - Northern offensive are moving into the Damascus countryside and have entered #Homs
-Only #Latakia and #Tartus are safe for him now

After 14 years of killing, torturing, and bombing Syrians, #Assad is seeing it all come back on himImage Its over. Assad and his father have killed, tortured, and bombed #Syria for decades, now they are being torn down

#Jaramam Image
Dec 4, 2024 6 tweets 3 min read
New details on #HTS rocket-propelled drones being used to target the headquarters and commander centres of the #Assad regime 🧵

These UAVs have significantly larger payloads and ranges than the FPV drones we've seen before #Syria #Aleppo #Hama Image First off, these drones have a much longer range and larger payload than what we have seen in the past & are likely domestically produced with simple equipment - a few details on preparation & targeting: Image
Dec 2, 2024 15 tweets 6 min read
New drones have played a major role in #HTS capture of #Aleppo 🧵

Photo/Video thread on:

- How HTS manufactures them on an industrial scale
- How HTS trains fighters to fly them
- How HTS targets high-value, strategic targets (senior regime commanders, artillery, tanks)

#Syria #Aleppo #HamaImage
Image
Manufacturing: HTS is mass producing #drones using 3D printers to create parts they cannot buy and small factories in safe houses which are hard to target. Some are modified consumer drones (Mavic 3/Mavic Air) while others are kits #Syria #HTS Image
Image
Nov 30, 2024 12 tweets 5 min read
Recently spoke to Al Jazeera about the capture of Aleppo by #HTS and its allies in #Syria

Full interview & story here:


@AJEnglish #Aleppo #Russia #Iran #Hezbollah aljazeera.com/program/inside…Image Live stream here:
Nov 30, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read
Quick thread on #Jolani — the leader of #HTS which captured #Aleppo yesterday🧵

Still seeing media describe him as #AlQaeda and #ISIS despite him breaking with them years ago. While he is a Salafi-Jihadist (& designated by #UN #US #UK #EU) he has moderated signifcantly.. #Syria Image Jolani started out in the global jihadist movement as an #ISIS commander in #Nineveh and #Mosul crossing from #Syria to #Iraq in 2003 after the US Invasion.

Back then he wore military fatigues and hid his face. Nowadays he wears western suits and speaks at press conferences Image
Nov 29, 2024 14 tweets 4 min read
HTS and the rebels have reached the citadel in the heart of #Aleppo. The entire city will be under the control of HTS and the opposition by the morning

Many friends in #Syria never thought they'd see this come again. #Assad #Iran #Russia and #Hezbollah all collapsed Image No rebel group has siezed a major city like #Aleppo so quickly — with the possible exception of #ISIS capture of #Mosul in 2014

This is a historic military victory and a big day for the #Syria rebels as well as #HTS & #Jolani who led the offensive
Nov 29, 2024 26 tweets 8 min read
HTS is storming Aleppo right now. Several sources on the ground confirm they are now inside the main ring road and moving toward the city centre

Nobody expected they would go this far but regime officers are withdrawing and #Hezbollah & #IRGC bases are empty

#Syria #Aleppo #HTS Image If #Aleppo (largest city in #Syria) falls under rebel control in the next few days, the future of the civil war and region will dramatically change

Assad cannot afford to keep control over the whole country and the South has already seen rising conflict the past six months