PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, Dec 2, 2024
In a best-case scenario, we could see 700,000 daily infections/day near the peak. Worst-case, probably 1.4 million. These are all very bad levels of transmission, but nowhere near last winter, where we peaked near 2 million daily infections.
There's a reasonable chance the winter peak will be smaller than the summer wave. That's good news in terms of lower anticipated transmission, but bad news in that our lulls are bad and peaks are still terrible.
If the forecast holds, this will further challenge received public health wisdom that winter is necessarily "respiratory virus season," and suggest a need for closer monitoring of transmission and mitigation year round. We need to expand wastewater and testing-based surveillance programs, generate better consensus methodologic standards, and better link transmission levels to actionable public health guidance.
It remains to be seen how much this winter is an aberration. It could be a consequence of public health guidance switching to a 1-day isolation period that helped create such a large summer wave. Subvariant evolution has also been "lucky" the past several months.
In terms of the raw numbers, transmission was up marginally for the week ending on Nov 23, leading into busy holiday travel and gatherings. The regional patterns are not clear, given variation across data sets.
There is no formal report on the website this week.
Info for new readers:
For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data
The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.
Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…
Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link.
We will have a pre-print out in the next month or two documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates.
In a best-case scenario, we could see 700,000 daily infections/day near the peak. Worst-case, probably 1.4 million. These are all very bad levels of transmission, but nowhere near last winter, where we peaked near 2 million daily infections.
There's a reasonable chance the winter peak will be smaller than the summer wave. That's good news in terms of lower anticipated transmission, but bad news in that our lulls are bad and peaks are still terrible.
If the forecast holds, this will further challenge received public health wisdom that winter is necessarily "respiratory virus season," and suggest a need for closer monitoring of transmission and mitigation year round. We need to expand wastewater and testing-based surveillance programs, generate better consensus methodologic standards, and better link transmission levels to actionable public health guidance.
It remains to be seen how much this winter is an aberration. It could be a consequence of public health guidance switching to a 1-day isolation period that helped create such a large summer wave. Subvariant evolution has also been "lucky" the past several months.
In terms of the raw numbers, transmission was up marginally for the week ending on Nov 23, leading into busy holiday travel and gatherings. The regional patterns are not clear, given variation across data sets.
There is no formal report on the website this week.
Info for new readers:
For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 14+ months at pmc19.com/data
The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.
Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…
Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, and NBC. See pgs 11-13 at the above link.
We will have a pre-print out in the next month or two documenting very compelling evidence for the validity of using wastewater to estimate case rates.
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