The share of poor and unviable winter crops from the 2025 harvest in the country “has reached an unprecedentedly huge figure of 38%,” the analytical center ProZerno reports, citing data from the Hydrometeorological Center.
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2/ At the end of November, the government's customs subcommittee reduced the grain export quota by three times from February 15 to June 30, 2025. It will amount to 11 million tons, compared to 29 million tons a year earlier. moscowtimes.ru/2024/12/04/tak…
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I'm tired of reading about how good things will be for Russian exporters and how Russia's trade balance will improve.
People don't understand the basics of economics. If the ruble rate soars by 10% per month, the population will start withdrawing money from deposits.
1/4
Who needs these deposits at 20% per annum if it's easier to buy dollars. But when deposits start to flow out of banks, a banking crisis begins. Banks start to go bankrupt. The entire financial system of the country collapses. Accounts are frozen. Businesses are idle.
2/4
The economy collapses. Some people are left without money. And after that, everything stops. Inflation needs to be kept under control. And in Russia, it looks like panic and collapse are starting!
3/4
Please retweet in advance.
This will be a long thread in which I will explain and show the approach of mass corporate defaults in Russia.
I will also show that Putin's economy is currently in the worst possible position.
Here is the IFX-CBONDS G-SPREAD index 1/n
It shows the difference between the yield of OFZ and corporate bonds. It is currently at a historical maximum. The huge growth occurred after November 5. 2/n
This is a graph of the growth of spreads depending on the credit rating. For bonds and loans. 3/n
Thread.
The CB Ru set the maximum limit for monthly repo auctions at 500 billion rub from November 25
Based on the cross-schedule of allocation and repayment, I assume that a total of 1.5-2 trillion rub will be allocated for the purchase of OFZ to finance the budget deficit. 1/2
Since the beginning of the year, the volume of OFZs in circulation has grown by only 880 billion, while according to the plan, the government debt should grow by 2.5-3 trillion. 2/n
They already did this in 2022. OFZs worth 2.3 trillion rubles were sold in 1.5 months (see previous chart)
3/n
В РФ проблемы растут, ЦБ признал что не может побороть инфляцию. Мини тред
Сегодня ЦБ опубликовал отчет
В котором признал что в сентябре опять ускорился рост денежной массы из-за рост кредитов в корпоративном сегменте ( военка )
Показатель М2 +20%
⬇️⬇️ cbr.ru/Collection/Col…
Рост кредитов корпоративного сектора достиг +20% г/г
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Не смотря на повышение ключевой ставки до 19% рост кредитов в корпоративном секторе достиг 20% и продолжает расти.
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