Thread by @GLandsbergis

🧵There are five illusions about Ukraine that lead to flawed “peace” plans that are doomed to fail. I have listed the illusions here in the hope that reality-based discussions can soon become the norm.👇
1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣4️⃣5️⃣

1️⃣The Illusion of Diplomacy.
Diplomacy alone cannot keep Ukraine safe. Words must be backed up by strength on the battlefield. To get a fair deal you have to carry a very big stick, not just an olive branch. Ukraine must be much stronger if Europe wants to stay secure.👇

2️⃣The Illusion of Expense.
The headline figures of "billions" create the illusion that we can't afford to do more. But when the pandemic hit, we raised €750bn in the EU alone. The amounts needed to secure victory and lasting peace for Ukraine are small in comparison.👇

3️⃣The Illusion of Inability.
We must provide security guarantees, and we can. NATO Art 5 is the easiest way. A negotiated agreement won't last long if Putin sees he can use force to break it. Been there before.👇

4️⃣The Illusion of Speed.
Strengthening Ukraine’s negotiating position will take time, so a quick peace in current conditions is impossible, unless your aim is Ukraine’s capitulation.👇

5️⃣The Illusion of Management.
It is said that this war is too big to be won, so all we can do is escalation management. This led to Russian military bases being better protected than Ukrainian hospitals. Other conflicts broke out around the world. Victory would make us safer.👇

☝️While we are distracted and divided by these illusions, our enemies are forming ever closer unions. We cannot afford the luxury of kicking this can down the road again, buying another decade. Ukrainians deserve to live in without fear, and we must make that happen. /🧵