Having worked on #Syria full-time since the crisis began nearly 14yrs ago, there really is no understating how remarkable the losses imposed on #Assad's regime have been over the past week.
A large reason for this lies with #HTS — a 🧵:
Militarily, #HTS has invested enormously since 2020 in enhancing combat capabilities, improving professionalism, tightening its structure & command/control etc.
From an 'officer' class, to special forces, night-time units & an entire drone force - it's changed the game.
The expansion of units like Asaib al-Hamra & introduction of Saraya al-Harari and Kataib Shaheen -- along with large-scale indigenous rocket & missile production -- has created a force that #Assad's regime has seriously struggled to defend against, let alone outmaneuver.
But just as significant as military capabilities is the groundwork #HTS has done to facilitate its advance -- particularly in years of engagement with tribes, minority notables & other social bodies that exist beyond greater #Idlib.
This has been crucial.
Having spent 4+ years engaged in sensitive community engagement with groups traditionally hostile to the likes of #HTS, the group has developed a knack for 'diplomacy.'
In recent days, it's put this experience to work on multiple fronts -- to significant effect.
In areas of northern #Hama for example, #HTS has negotiated intensively with Ismaili notables, with #Assad regime military commanders & with Sunni tribes -- most resulting in peaceful takeovers, safe exits & some [publicly unacknowledged] regime defections.
In Kurdish areas of #Aleppo, #HTS's line of communication with the #SDF/#YPG has, I'm told, been pragmatic, constructive & ultimately effective.
The SNA's brief attempts at negotiation on the other hand rapidly devolved into threats, then fighting.
In multiple areas of #Aleppo city long held by #Assad, local community elders have recently called on #HTS to deploy forces to their areas & intervene against #SNA abuses, threats & criminal behavior -- and to get working on repairs & service distribution.
Don't understate the significance of #HTS's recent statements & rhetoric towards Christians, Alawites, Kurds etc. That cannot merely be "PR" as it sets an irreversible precedent.
Jolani has spent years purging those who'd critique such steps. He's walking on stabler ground now.
#HTS has also invested heavily in its semi-technocratic "Salvation Government", which comprises 11 Ministries & many other public sector service bodies.
The SSG operates closely with external aid INGOs & the @UN has a permanent office liaising with the SSG in #Idlib.
@UN The SSG has sought to replicate the conventional acts of a sovereign government -- running a census, issuing ID cards, running & regulating banks, issuing numbered addresses & more.
Its response to #COVID-19 (masks, testing, clinics) was swifter than #Damascus.
@UN Some will dismiss #HTS & the SSG's early proto-governance steps in #Aleppo as superficial, but after 14yrs of debilitating humanitarian crisis & #Assad's corruption & economic decline -- 1st impressions could count for a lot in defining what comes next.
@UN In years past, #HTS (& Nusra before it) struggled to achieve genuine trust with the rest of #Syria's armed opposition -- but that's changed in recent years.
The impressively tight coordination with long-standing FSA-branded groups this past week is evidence of that.
@UN But beyond military coordination, the [so far] smooth transition from battle to consolidation to interim governance -- particularly in #Aleppo -- has seen #HTS devolve authority to more locally-rooted factions (see Jabha al-Shamiya, Zinki et. al.)
@UN The relatively sophisticated PR effort & swift pivot from military-to-governing is already having some effect. #Aleppo's hospitals remain fully staffed, the city police & defected soldiers are already signing up to join the SSG's Interior Ministry payroll.
@UN In many ways & with a heavy dose of irony, #HTS today is the realization of a vision first put forward by Ahrar al-Sham, whose 1st-generation leaders sought to pursue an evolution from Salafi-jihad to 'revolutionary nationalism."
Ahrar's decline was #HTS's doing.
@UN Ahrar al-Sham was the 1st such group to embrace the 'green' revolutionary flag, to adopt nationalist rhetoric, and to publicly critique the influence of 'external' (jihadist) actors.
Criticism from Nusra, then #JFS-#HTS was swift -- but it's the model that #HTS has embraced.
@UN The BIG test going forward is to what extent #HTS's strides in NW #Syria can earn it acceptance, trust or credibility from communities & actors deeper in #Syria.
#Hama will be a testing ground. And perhaps #Homs after that. This story isn't over yet.
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#Israel's intervention in #Suwayda has completely backfired, with #Jerusalem now signaling it wants #Syria's gov't to go back in to restore order amid huge tribal mobilization.
#Israel's approach to post-#Assad #Syria has never been strategic & the last week shows that palpably.
By intervening, #Israel (1) exacerbated #Suwayda's intra-#Druze divisions; (2) fueled (by 1,000x) Sunni Arab hostility to #Druze calls for decentralization; (3) triggered a nationwide tribal mobilization that's now advancing; & (4) placed #Druze civilians in far greater danger.
Let's get something very clear -- crimes/violations have been committed by all sides (gov't forces, tribes/Bedouin, #Druze militias).
There was never a "pure" side here & by stirring the pot, #Israel poured gallons of fuel onto the fire -- for crimes to simply intensify.
#Syria's SW province of #Suwayda has seen 5 days of chaotic, complex conflict now -- but as with previous bouts of hostilities in recent months, the information space has been plagued by disinformation, conflicting information & fast-changing developments.
What's happened, a 🧵:
Late on July 11, Bedouin gunmen ambushed a vegetable truck on the #Damascus-#Suwayda highway, beating the driver & stealing the truck & its contents.
The next day, #Druze gunmen kidnapped 8 Bedouins as retaliation, triggering Bedouin gunmen to kidnap 5 #Druze in response.
July 12 saw a flurry of tit-for-tat kidnappings, amid attempts by local notables to negotiate a calm-down.
Tensions & conflict between Bedouin clans & #Druze militia in #Suwayda dates back years -- tied to the drugs & weapons trade, control of smuggling routes & land ownership.
Last night, Saraya Ansar al-Sunna claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing that killed 25 people at the St Elias Church outside #Damascus on Sunday.
This is a group with a murky history -- a 🧵
Ansar al-Sunna first emerged in the public on Feb 1, 2025 -- claiming responsibility for massacring ~12 Alawites in #Hama several days earlier.
But the group was formed in June 2024 (~6months pre-#Assad's fall) in #Idlib by #HTS defectors & operatives aligned with Huras al-Din.
At least 3 Ansar al-Sunna operatives were detained by #HTS's General Security Service in October 2024 -- they were deemed to be an #ISIS sleeper cell.
GSS interrogations revealed communication with militants in Deir ez Zour.
What's happening in #Syria's #Druze-majority governorate of #Suwayda?
A 🧵:
Last night, almost all of #Suwayda's #Druze religious, civil & military leaders agreed a deal w. #Damascus to begin a gradual integration of #Syria's Interior Ministry, by folding #Druze militias into the "Public Security" force -- & later, more into the Defense Ministry.
This morning, that deal began moving -- with ~700 #Druze militiamen fast-tracked into a #Suwayda-specific Public Security force responsible for security in the (a) capital & (b) border areas. ~1,300 more men are in process to join too.
Amid hostilities in #Sahnaya, let's get one thing straight -- this is *not* a "gov't vs. Druze" conflict. By any means.
#Syria's Druze are extremely divided -- especially the clerics.
And more than any other actor, #Israel is preying on that division.
While some #Druze clerics (like Hijri) appear determined to hold hard against #Damascus, others (like Hinawi & Jarbou) seem determined to find a middle ground compromise.
Then there's Druze in #Israel (working with the IDF) & in #Lebanon (backing #Damascus).
The most powerful #Druze militias (Rijal al-Karama, Ahrar al-Jabal etc) -- HQ'd in #Suwayda -- have signed a framework security agreement with #Damascus & work jointly with the Interior Ministry. They worked together to end fighting in #Jaramana & same overnight in Sahnaya.
When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it's clearly coming.
The US military's decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria's new gov't.
For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.
The March 10 framework agreement signed by #Syria President Ahmed al-Sharaa & #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was a direct result of US mediation -- and from March 6, of *intense* pressure on the #SDF (by @CENTCOM's Gen Kurilla & @CJTFOIR's MG Leahy).