Anesthesiology was one of the medical specialties that was the most likely to cause a surprise bill, because patients usually don't select their anesthesiologist.
This meant lots of patients got saddled with out-of-network care, even at an in-network facility.
This has, to some extent, been reduced recently thanks to state-level protective legislation, and also to the federal No Surprises Act that went into effect in January of 2022.
Unfortunately, there are still exceptions aplenty, so surprise bills still exist.
Before the Act, several states passed laws to reduce the amount of surprise billing
When New York did this, prices paid to in-network anesthesiologists were comparable to peer states' between the law passing (orange line) and being implemented (blue), then they abruptly declined
When Florida passed their own surprise ban, prices started falling shortly after the ban went into effect.
But something much more interesting happened in California.
In California, the legislature had problems getting their ban passed until it was adjusted to become more acceptable.
Because of the knowledge of this legislation appearing and returning, doctors anticipated round 2.
In California, prices declined substantially when the bill was reintroduced to the senate, well before it was passed or implemented
It then might've fallen a bit more after implementation
What this makes clear is that anesthesiologists know what they're doing when they surprise
Anesthesiologists are handsomely paid, and the experience of curbing even one aspect of their misbehavior shows us that at least some of their misbehavior is very likely to be intentional--a choice rather than a mere mistake.
But they get away with it.
If you've been online in the past two days, you probably heard about the assassination of the CEO of UnitedHealthcare and an outcry against BCBS shortly thereafter based on statements by the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), supported by progressive groups and journos.
The ASA was protesting Anthem's decision to try to stop anesthesiologists billing them for work they didn't actually do by paying them the same rate that Medicare pays them for the procedures they do.
Medicare's rate is fair, but anesthesiologists hate it.
Paying on a per-procedure basis stops people from misreporting how long they work so they can order insurers (and patients) to pay them for more time.
This is fair, but anesthesiologists were understandably upset because this means their compensation goes down.
Their compensation goes down even if they're in the majority of anesthesiologists who don't directly commit fraud because Medicare services more than 100 million Americans, and they have the power to dictate prices that are much lower than what private insurers are forced to pay.
This is related to why surprise bills were a thing in the first place.
Surprise bills generally reflected one of either resource unavailability or market power on the part of doctors.
The first one has to do with the AMA.
If you need a certain type of specialist at a given moment in time, they might not be available.
If you're in a small area and your network is adequate outside of that special moment, you're out of luck.
If you're in a well-serviced area with an adequate network, it's different
If you're in a well-serviced area and you find yourself getting a surprise, it can reflect you making a mistake, or the effect of there not being enough specialists because their supply has been restricted due to legislation that the AMA and other medical associations lobbied for
If it's not those things, it usually ends up being something worse: doctors having market power, so they fail to reach an agreement with insurers who can't come to an agreement to profitably bring them in-network.
This happens all the time in rural areas: the doctors band together and won't contract with insurers unless insurers provide them terms that are extremely favorable.
If you're a doctor in a small specialty in a small area, you're golden, and not harmful enough for govt. to care.
Americans put up with this extremely suboptimal system in part because doctors have *amazing* PR.
They're your doctor after all! You go to them. You trust them. They're your friend. Hell, they might've even saved your life!
And they are well-spoken, generally good people.
But they still have bad incentives that cause them to act in ways that are materially harmful, and to misrepresent what they're doing.
That out-of-network surprise anesthesia rate? It's about five-times the Medicare rate the ASA was protesting.
But the Medicare rate is fair, or at least, doctors have never managed to show it's unfair.
They commonly argue that they have to charge private plans way more in order to subsidize the people paying the Medicare rate, but they've never shown that, even though it should be easy.
People accurately say "most doctors are good", they make half-hearted defenses of cartel-like doctors' associations that make it hard to improve America's healthcare situation, and they believe the person denying their claim is the bad guy when that's so rarely true.
The conversation around insurance rejections, fraud, billing, and much else is horrible because of the number of professional constraints, privacy regulations, and the multitude of barriers to transparency.
Get rejected? It's almost always just plan mix and coding stringency.
If you want a better system, you have to understand that doctors aren't free of sin just because the ones you know are good guys and gals who you know and trust.
To reform healthcare in America, you have to deal with the fact that a lot of them have very bad incentives.
There's so much more left to say, but that's not for a site with a small character limit.
Here's the study I referenced. Make sure you click through to the other one on anesthesiologists' likely-fraudulent rounding too: jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
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Pierre Guillaume Frédéric le Play argued that France's early fertility decline was driven by its inheritance reforms, where estates had to be split up equally to all of the kids, including the girls.
There's likely something to this!🧵
For reference, the French Revolution ushered in a number of egalitarian laws.
A major example of these had to do with inheritance, and in particular with partibility.
In some areas of France, there was partible inheritance, and in others, it was impartible.
Partible inheritance refers to inheritance spread among all of a person's heirs, sometimes including girls, sometimes not.
Impartible inheritance on the other hands refers to the situation where the head of an estate can nominate a particular heir to get all or a select portion.
In terms of their employment, religion, and sex, people who joined the Nazi party started off incredibly distinct from the people in their communities.
It's only near the end of WWII when they started resembling everyday Germans.
Early on, a lot of this dissimilarity is due to hysteresis.
Even as the party was growing, people were selectively recruited because they were often recruited by their out-of-place friends, and they were themselves out-of-place.
It took huge growth to break that.
And you can see the decline of fervor based on the decline of Nazi imagery in people's portraits.
And while this is observed by-and-large, it's not observed among the SS, who had a consistently higher rate of symbolic fanaticism.
I simulated 100,000 people to show how often people are "thrice-exceptional": Smart, stable, and exceptionally hard-working.
I've highlighted these people in red in this chart:
If you reorient the chart to a bird's eye view, it looks like this:
In short, there are not many people who are thrice-exceptional, in the sense of being at least +2 standard deviations in conscientiousness, emotional stability (i.e., inverse neuroticism), and intelligence.
To replicate this, use 42 as the seed and assume linearity and normality
The decline of trust is something worth caring about, and reversing it is something worth doing.
We should not have to live constantly wondering if we're being lied to or scammed. Trust should be possible again.
I don't know how we go about regaining trust and promoting trustworthiness in society.
It feels like there's an immense level of toleration of untrustworthy behavior from everyone: scams are openly funded; academics congratulate their fraudster peers; all content is now slop.
What China's doing—corruption crackdowns and arresting fraudsters—seems laudable, and I think the U.S. and other Western nations should follow suit.
Fraud leads to so many lives being lost and so much progress being halted or delayed.
British fertility abruptly fell after one important court case: the Bradlaugh-Besant trial🧵
You can see its impact very visibly on this chart:
The trial involved Annie Besant (left) and Charles Bradlaugh (right).
These two were atheists—a scandalous position at the time!—and they wanted to promote free-thinking about practically everything that upset the puritanical society of their time.
They were on trial because they tried to sell a book entitled Fruits of Philosophy.
This was an American guide to tons of different aspects of family planning, and included birth control methods, some of which worked, others which did not.
One of the really interesting studies on the psychiatric effects of maltreatment is Danese and Widom's from Nat. Hum. Behavior a few years ago.
They found that only subjective (S), rather than objective (O) maltreatment predicted actually having a mental disorder.
Phrased differently, if people subjectively believed they were abused, that predicted poor mental health, but objectively recorded maltreatment only predicted it if there was also a subjective report.
Some people might 'simply' be more resilient than others.
I think this finding makes sense.
Consider the level of agreement between prospective (P-R) and retrospective (R-P) reports of childhood maltreatment.
A slim majority of people recorded being mistreated later report that they were mistreated when asked to recall.