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AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
@thekookreport
Dec 7 • 49 tweets • 23 min read • Read on X
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🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

$ASTS gets industry recognition as well as a lot of attention at AT&T's analyst day, as much more... Image
🍰Summary

Achievements and Industry Position:
Recognition: $ASTS was named the "2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year."

Industry Alignment: Positioned at a critical intersection of technology and connectivity trends, such as satellite communication.
Trading Sentiment:

Market Dynamics: Noted trading patterns where $ASTS is seen as a pair trade against Starlink news, with investors reacting to perceived competition.

Zoomed-Out Perspective: Investors are encouraged to focus on the long-term structural advantages and milestones of $ASTS.
Competitive Insights:

Starlink Comparisons: Differences highlighted between $ASTS's higher speeds and capacity versus Starlink's shared-beam model.

Investor Challenges: Difficulty for institutions to invest in $ASTS due to pre-revenue status and competition with Elon Musk's ventures.

Satellite Operations: Updates on AST5000 ASIC development for enhanced performance in space environments.

Regulatory Milestones: Progress in FCC approvals, including spectrum leasing arrangements and compliance.
Partnerships:

AT&T Collaboration: AT&T's strategy emphasizes $ASTS's role in augmenting terrestrial services. AT&T and Verizon's spectrum contributions bolster $ASTS's offering.

Catalysts and Future Outlook:
Upcoming Catalysts: Regulatory approvals, new launches (e.g., Bluebird 2), government contracts, and initial operations/revenue.

Long-Term Vision: Potential for significant revenue growth and impact on mobile network operators' subscriber value.

Geopolitical and Global Context:
International Developments: Regulatory challenges in Namibia for Starlink, opportunities in Europe, and competitive positioning in the Indian market.

MNO Partnerships: The strategic choice to collaborate with mobile network operators ensures smoother market entry and broader adoption.
Investment Insights:

Valuation Potential: The potential for exponential growth if milestones are achieved, highlighting parallels with historical tech successes.

Market Awareness: Awareness and investment traction are still in the early stages, with significant room for growth.
🏆2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year

Well-earned recognition for $ASTS after a pivotal year of execution

✅Right Industry

We are at the right intersection of change. It comes down to security selection

🙄Predictable Trading

I haven't gone back to test this, but it feels that whenever Starlink is in the news, $ASTS is just the easy "pair trade" where simple investors just assume the competitive hammer is dropping. Elon confirms the capacity per beam. Remember, the Starlink beam is shared among many more users than the comparable $ASTS beam

x.com/elonmusk/statu…Image
😢Mood Through Thursday

Because I've been doing this a long time, the sentiment is as fascinating as anything else.

🍾No One's Going to F-up My Friday

Why was the stock up? Funny how the stock writes the news Image
🔥I Didn't Light the Fire

Sometimes random things just seem to correlate when the stock might have wanted to pop anyway

Image
⏳Juxtaposition of Short-term vs. Long-term

In contrast to how most retail (and institutions think), Tut does a great recap of what's happened over the past year

🍼Simple Summaries

This simple summary outlines the key differences as to why Starlink and $ASTS are not in the same ball park

📙More Investment Summaries

This will happen more and more.

bluestar-im.ch/documents/Blue…Image
➕Simple Math

I find it very useless to map out the white space, but also understand the hurdle of what you need to believe

Image
🧮Complex Math

Just theory at this point, but the key to make big money is understanding where opportunity lurks

Image
🧪Catalysts

I see the following as catalyst over the next 3 months:

FCC STAs
FCC SCS
MNO Contracts
Initial Operations
Initial Revenue
Government Contracts (SDA)
EXIM Progress
Strategic Payments
New Glenn Launch Success
Bluebird 2 Launch
Launch schedule
Manufacturing updates
International STAs
FirstNet Updates

🚀Launches Getting Firmed

nextspaceflight.com/launches/?sear…Image
🤥True Starlink Service

Look to the courts where the truth comes out

Image
Image
🫢Starlink Changes Its Message

Funny how the physics catch up. Tut caught a nice one here. At first it was "text and data," then it was changed to "text then data"

Image
▪️Elon's Disclosure

Image
🟦Let’s review $ASTS

Image
📲AT&T Analyst Day Overview

AT&T lays outs its broad network convergence strategy. They highlighted the role of satellite in this strategy.

🔨Stankey Lays It Down

We have one partner. "We have a full year ahead of us to get more birds up in the sky." 1 year. Talks about how consumers do not want degradation of service.

📺2 Important Clips To Watch

💰Multi-Client Model

Stankey talks about the point I spoke about two weeks ago about the power of the multi-client model. It makes no sense for a single MNO to build this because it will never be economic to them to do so.

Image
🧭The True North

Will identifies the most important thing to the MNOs: lifetime value.

"One statistic stood out for me. Converged services are lifting the operator's lifetime subscriber value by 15%."

🪙Copper Trade

MNOs are required to maintain certain connectivity levels. Maintaining the old copper networks are a $6BN a year proposition.

Image
🛟Carrier of Last Resort

Being a monopoly carries costs, and in this instance, it's the Faustian bargain with the government.

Image
Image
💕Convergence

Satellite will augment terrestrial service. Good simple overview of $ASTS

x.com/i/status/18640…

x.com/CatSE___ApeX__…
🏃Reminder of the MNOs Selling Towers
Who has advantaged information here? The buyer or the seller?

🎁AT&T & ASTS Presenting

More investors will be hearing about the exciting AT&T / $ASTS partnership on 12/10 at the UBS conference Image
🚑How FirstNet Does It Today

How do you do emergency response today? Inefficiently, expensively, and slowly

Image
👮‍♂️FirstNet Board Meeting

Latest FirstNet Updates will be on December 11th at 1130 AM EST.

🐦‍⬛Reminder about the Government

I've been reading a book about Keyhole. These projects were so classified that people who worked on them, to this day, cannot talk about them. I speak because I know. Meanwhile, did $ASTS deploy something else off two birds? Lots of redacted filings

Image
🐿️ASICS Are Cool

Cadence highlighting a partnership like this with AST SpaceMobile is relatively typical in the technology and semiconductor industries, especially for major projects involving innovative applications. Cadence uses this announcement to underscore its leadership in Electronic Design Automation (EDA) and IP solutions. By linking its tools and expertise to a groundbreaking project like AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird satellites, Cadence positions itself as a critical enabler of cutting-edge technology

cadence.com/en_US/home/com…Image
✝️ASTS, AI, Amazon, and the Confluence

No pun intended, but ASTS is hitting a cadence on the relevant key themes in the world. What good is AI if you are not connected?

Image
🧑‍⚖️FCC Streamlines the Process

Everything is getting wired for SCS, We see from these filings that the SCS rules are now in effect. I hadn't realized they weren't in effect, which just underscores how we are all learning here.

docs.fcc.gov/public/attachm…Image
🐎ASTS Gearing Up For Operations

They are finalizing how to get the constellation rolling. Just another little telltale that we're almost to prime time.

⚡️AT&T Spectrum

AT&T paid $1bn for 700MHz from US Cellular

Image
🌎Meanwhile, The World

The emissary of God on earth reminds us that there is more than America. The India docket is heating up. $ASTS is getting referenced.

x.com/kingtutcap/sta…

x.com/kingtutcap/sta… Image
🇳🇦Namibia Strikes Back

"The Communications Regulatory Authority of Namibia (CRAN) has formally ordered Starlink to halt its satellite internet operations within the country, citing a lack of the required telecommunications license. "

spaceinafrica.com/2024/12/02/nam…
🇫🇷Remember Europe?

Well, France is mentioning $ASTS? But I thought Europe was not going to have SCS, according to one expert? This is from the website of the French regulator

"AST SpaceMobile aims for a global expansion of high-speed connectivity. With a substantial increase in its cash reserves and strategic partnerships, AST SpaceMobile is ready to enhance global cellular coverage, targeting over 5 billion mobile users. (Investing.com)"

x.com/DaInverseCrame…Image
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿UK Testing

UK testing STA filed for Llanidloes, Wales. Testing with Vodafone

x.com/defiantclient/…

ukfcf.org.uk/ofcom-prep-pro… Image
Image
Owner Operators

The full interview with Bezos was great, but the characteristics of a true Owner-Operator are evident in $ASTS, as they were with Bezos

T-Mobile Valuation

AT&T and Verizon know they need to tackle the guys who came and challenged their position. That's why they are trying to have an iPhone moment with $ASTS

SpaceX Goes To Infinity

$250BN is for chumps. SpaceX goes higher

Image
But Also Comes Closer To Earth

Elon talks about the lower latency that is coming, but again, closer to early has a cost.

Image
And Cuts Price

A mobile Starlink is $450 and $30/month, or $0.60/GB. Amortize that $450 over 3 years, you have $150 / 12 = $12.5 / 50 = $0.25 in addition, or $0.85/GB. However, it's bundled so it's not a clean price b/c you have to also pay the $165. Remember, fixed broadband is a different animal than data delivered over terrestrial.

x.com/MarioNawfal/st…
Tail Risk

Playing Emperor is a dangerous game. While Musk looks to be the most powerful man in the world, never underestimate the power of hubris.

cnbc.com/2024/12/05/spa…
Brendan Carr Interview

Here are Carr's priorities:

CARR: Yeah, there’s four main ideas that I’ve been talking a lot about in terms of the agenda that I want to run. I mean, obviously, first and foremost, I want to make sure I continue to work with the Trump transition team and make sure I understand 100% what their agenda is. But for my part, number one is looking at tech censorship. Number two, there’s a whole set of media issues that I think deserve the FCC taking a fresh look at. There’s -- third, a whole set of economic issues from permitting reform to spectrum to the space economy, where, frankly, we’ve got to add some rocket fuel to that process. And then finally, national security. I think particularly with Salt Typhoon top of mind for a lot of people, it’s important that we continue to make progress there.

x.com/Akashi1459455/…Image
More Spectrum

Carr talks about Spectrum. Below is my work just showing how much spectrum is stuck with the government

"CARR: Yeah, I think he’s right. And Senator Ted Cruz, who I think is positioned to come in and lead the Commerce Committee, has said that freeing up more Spectrum is going to be his number one priority. And I agree wholeheartedly with that. When you free up Spectrum, it drives down prices for consumers. You can see traditional mobile wireless, for instance, competing in the in-home broadband market with cable. I think that’s a great thing for consumers. It’s also part of our national security interest. When we free up Spectrum, the world takes notice. Capital comes here. We get to set the rules of the road on the standard setting process. So there’s no question we’ve fallen into sort of a deep malaise on Spectrum under Biden administration. I hope we get a chance to turn that around while also protecting DOD. I mean, look, they’ve got national security missions that we can’t impinge on either. But we need a better balance than we’ve had the last couple of years."Image

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AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 1
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

$ASTS is set to receive FCC approval, Starlink gets to pursue its defective system, FUD Busting, and much more on this week's Weekly Image
Week in Review Highlights:
Global Expansion and Partnerships: Permits filed in Turkey with Vodafone. Notable collaborations with AT&T, including mentions of their strategic investments and upcoming Analyst Day.

Competitive Landscape: Critical analysis of Starlink's limitations, regulatory challenges, and service model, highlighting $ASTS's edge in technology and market positioning.

Market Opportunities: Emphasis on the scalability and economic potential of commercial space applications, with $ASTS poised to revolutionize telecommunications, especially in underserved areas.

Investment Case for $ASTS: Focus on its superwholesale model, strategic partnerships, and visionary leadership driving innovation.
Financial health underlined by significant cash reserves and successful satellite launches.

Key Takeaways from DB Conference: Observations on industry lethargy versus $ASTS's dynamic approach, with leadership seen as focused and mission-driven.
Analysis of historical failures in satellite
communications and how $ASTS is breaking that mold.

Regulatory and Competitive Insights: Updates on FCC approvals, spectrum battles, and the impact of lower orbital altitudes on satellite longevity and efficiency.
Starlink's challenges with interference and its perceived struggles to compete with $ASTS.

Technological Innovation: Discussion on space-based power generation and other potential non-communication applications for $ASTS's technology.

Market Trends and Sentiment: Shift in generalist investor sentiment towards space stocks, with $ASTS emerging as a long-term growth story.
Analysis of adjacent industries and their role in $ASTS's success, including military and government programs.

Broader Space Economy: Highlights on the growing valuation of space companies like SpaceX and the potential for market disruption in the telecommunications sector.
🇹🇷Testing Permits Continue

$ASTS permits with Vodafone are filed in Turkey. We're going global.

Read 61 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 24
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

The wet dream of shorts is about to turn into a nightmare for them. I will also try to do a Spaces to cover these topics tomorrow and will schedule it when I know my schedule. Image
🤘Key Highlights:

Sources and Uses of Funds: Analysis suggests the company may be pursuing less dilutive financing strategies, signaling long-term confidence.
Government funding, MNO prepayments, and EXIM support remain key potential catalysts.

Growing Interest: $ASTS presentations are drawing larger crowds, with institutional investors starting to take notice.

Market Sizing: The satellite market potential, especially in D2D communications, is vast, with both consumer and military applications on the horizon.

Short Seller Debunking: Recent short theses are critiqued, highlighting gaps in their assumptions and reinforcing the long-term investment thesis for $ASTS.

Technical Developments: Continued testing of BW-3 and updates on beam size efficiencies showcase $ASTS's technological edge.

Leadership Moves: CEO Abel Avellan's estate planning transaction signals confidence in $ASTS's future while aligning shareholder interests.

Policy & Regulation: Changes at the FCC, including new leadership, are likely to shape the regulatory landscape favorably for satellite communications.
ℹ️Sources & Uses

Let's start with a review of what matters a lot for a stock like $ASTS - it's balance sheet.

What's interesting is that since earnings, the Company has not used the ATM. There are two paths I'd take if I were CFO (and I'm not out of my league to say I could be a CFO).

Path 1: Hit the ATM. Once you start using it, just get the whole thing done and be over with it. They obviously did not choose Path 1. Why?

Path 2: Do what you need to secure yourself and not gamble, but realize you have something else in store to minimize dilution. MNO pre-payments, EXIM, 5G Funds.

I thought Path 1 was the prudent path. It appears that a prudent company has chosen Path 2. The fact that Abel did his personal liquidity transaction after potentially suggests that ATM is done for the time being.
Read 46 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 18
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Bezos finds a new way to get his rockets off. That and much more on this week's "Week in Review..." Image
🤠In this week's Review, you'll find the following topics

Highlights:
Earnings Call Summary:
Best earnings report to date.
Signed Multi-Launch Agreement (MLA) for 60 launches.
Successful initial operations of Block 1 satellites.
Key partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten confirmed.
Progress on government contracts, including significant EXIM financing application.
Updated CAPEX guidance indicates a path to cash flow positivity.

Strategic and Operational Updates:
$ASTS announced regulatory progress and plans for continuous constellation coverage by 2026 (ahead of market expectations).
Multi-launch strategy diversifies launch providers (SpaceX, Blue Origin, ISRO).
Detailed updates on individual launches, including upcoming ISRO and SpaceX flights and Blue Origin’s New Glenn potential.
A new schedule tracker highlights launch cadence.

Market and Investor Sentiment:
Stock faced short-term volatility, attributed to perceived manipulation post-MLA announcement.
Jim Cramer maintains a cautious stance, while community members argue the stock's upside potential.
Discussion on how the market underestimates $ASTS's long-term network monetization potential.

Military and Government Opportunities:
Growing government/military interest, including NATO discussions and SDA contracts.
Non-communication use cases (e.g., radar, GPS, phased arrays) offer additional growth areas.

Regulatory and Financial Progress:
FCC filings for AT&T and Verizon enable testing and spectrum allocation.
EXIM financing discussed as a key component of long-term low-cost capital structure.

Competitive Landscape:
Updates on SpaceX’s growing valuation and capacity, alongside Starlink challenges.
Industry dynamics highlighted by the collapse of rivals like Rivada.

Global Expansion:
Focus on India and the Middle East, with strategic moves like the ISRO launch providing market footholds.
💵$ASTS Reports Earnings

This was the best earnings report $ASTS has given. The key points are:

- MLA signed for 60 launches
- Successful initial operations of Block 1
- Initial FCC filings for AT&T and Verizon done
- 3 new government contracts
- EXIM application filed and expect more MNO money soon
- Remaining CAPEX for cash flow positivity is $120-170MM
- The SDA (military contract) is an example of something that can grow into huge deals
- Expect MNO deals soon (Rakuten already done)

But don't ask me, here is all the news that's fit to print:

x.com/spacanpanman/s…
Read 52 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 10
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Trump, Founder of the Space Force, is back...a tough week for the stock price, but many fundamental events are ahead for next week. Read on. Image
😶‍🌫️This week will cover the following:

ASTS Earnings Preview
I'll share my thoughts on what could happen on the Earnings Call on Thursday

ASTS Keeps Scaling
Expect updates on accelerated plans to launch commercial service soon.

Potential ASTS Acquisition
Speculation on Amazon or Google potentially acquiring $ASTS for telecom assets, similar to big tech’s entry into other markets.

Kamala Trade Impact
Market expects government support for SpaceX, but 70% of the U.S. market is tied to $ASTS.

$ASTS as DoD's Ace
Significant potential for ASTS in U.S. defense applications, backed by recent insights from a UT Austin Professor.

Defense Applications Expand
More details on ASTS’s defense applications from expert sources.

Ariane BB2 Launch
Anticipation of at least one launch with Ariane, according to sources.

Short Sellers on ASTS
Shorts are targeting ASTS, comparing it to Starlink, but investors remain bullish on $ASTS’s unique position.

Government Opportunities
ASTS is well-positioned for national security contracts, highlighted by a recent SDA award.

FCC Support & 5G Expansion
Commissioner Brendan Carr supports technology developments benefiting ASTS and the DoD.

Nokia 6G Summit
ASTS featured as a critical technology asset for defense applications at the summit.

Canadian Support
Canadian Space Agency backs ASTS, with Bell Canada also showing support.

New Zealand Partnership Misstep
Some concerns over a New Zealand telecom partnership that may not align with ASTS’s strategic goals.

Starlink's Misleading Claims
Allegations of Starlink overstating service accuracy, raising questions for private investors.

Bezos and Blue Origin
Bezos’s New Glenn rocket is nearing launch readiness, a significant milestone for Blue Origin.

Apple and Globalstar Partnership
Overview of Apple’s $1.5 billion satellite smartphone investment with Globalstar.

KOOKGPT Expansion
KOOKGPT is accepting blank term sheets for new AI company initiatives, with standard NVCA terms preferred.
💰 $ASTS Earnings Preview

This is the summary of what I expect could be covered on the earnings call, as well as separate events that could follow shortly thereafter Image
Image
Read 29 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 3
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Good things are coming, read for more. Image
📢 ASTS Milestone Announcement

AST SpaceMobile is signaling exciting developments ahead! They’re “getting ready to operate and provide commercial services,” suggesting the start of significant milestones.

🎙️ Interview with Scott

Scott discussed ASTS's goal to get 45-60 satellites operational in the U.S., hinting that they may provide guidance for this in 2025.

Read 19 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Oct 27
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

$ASTS gets included in an incredible US Military Project, becomes a Prime Contractor, and completes the unfurling of all 5 Block 1 satellites. Read on for more! Image
ASTS Block 1 Satellite Unfurling Ahead of Schedule:
AST SpaceMobile completed the unfurling of its five Block 1 satellites six weeks after launch, moving ahead of schedule. This rapid deployment primes the satellites for upcoming commercial and U.S. government operations, showcasing ASTS's commitment to timely and reliable performance.

Promotion to Prime Contractor in the HALO Project:
AST SpaceMobile advanced from subcontractor status to prime contractor with the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) under the HALO initiative. This pivotal promotion allows ASTS to manage contracts directly, highlighting its growing technical maturity and strengthened industry relationships.

HALO Demonstrations Begin with ASTS as Key Player:
ASTS is among 19 companies chosen for the SDA’s HALO project, aiming to enhance missile tracking and communication capabilities in low-Earth orbit. The initial orders involve the launch of two satellites within 12 to 18 months, with the possibility for larger contracts as the program expands.

FCC Compliance and Strategic Diplomacy: While regulatory hurdles are common in satellite communications, ASTS has maintained steady compliance with FCC requirements, contrasting with recent publicized disputes by SpaceX. ASTS’s smooth navigation of these processes underscores its meticulous approach to regulatory compliance.

FirstNet and New Spectrum Gains Support Future Expansion: AT&T’s FirstNet received additional spectrum, furthering ASTS’s potential reach for emergency and public safety communications. As the FirstNet network grows, ASTS is positioned to provide valuable satellite-based connectivity for first responders and emergency personnel.

Spotlight on Government Spending for Space Initiatives: The Pentagon's $14 billion Next-Gen OPIR program reveals a sustained emphasis on large-scale satellite procurement. ASTS’s modular satellite technology aligns well with such ambitious government initiatives, offering high-altitude solutions ideal for persistent surveillance and missile tracking.
READ THIS BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE. This was so well written by God's representative on earth, Ra himself.

Read 25 tweets

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