Russia might lose its military bases in Syria, including its sole naval facility in the Mediterranean, which provides critical support to its naval operations south of Europe.
Good for everyone! 1/
Reuters: Two strategically important Russian military facilities in Syria - the Hmeimim air base and the Tartous naval facility - are under serious threat from rapidly advancing insurgents, according to Russian war bloggers 2/
With Russian military resources mostly tied down in Ukraine, Russia's ability to influence the situation on the ground in Syria is far more limited than in 2015 when it intervened to prop up the Assad regime 3/
The insurgent advances threaten to undermine Russia's geopolitical clout in the Middle East and its ability to project power in the region, across the Mediterranean and into Africa. This would be an embarrassing setback for Putin 4/
Russian war bloggers, who have more freedom to speak out than the military, warn that losing the Hmeimim air base and Tartous naval facility would cripple Russia's military capabilities in Syria 5/
The Russian air force is providing support to government forces, but the Syrian army alone is seen as a lost cause without strong Russian backing. Evacuating all Russian military equipment may not be possible 6/
Prominent Russian ex-militia commander Igor Girkin said Russia is overstretched and that the defeat of the Syrian government would also be Russia's defeat 7/
Russia is facing a grave threat to its strategic positions and influence in Syria as it struggles to balance the war in Ukraine with maintaining its foothold in the Middle East 8/
Zelensky had his first face-to-face with Trump since the election
Yermak, Zelensky’s right-hand man, was in Washington, engaging with Trump’s team, incl those skeptical
This is fresh momentum for Ukraine
1/
Macron hosted the meeting at the Élysée Palace during Notre Dame's reopening. His messaging reinforced Europe’s stance that Ukraine’s voice is critical to any negotiations 2/
But more importantly the U.S. appears to be interested in a win-win solution with Ukraine, with supporting defense tech, entry into critical materials, and providing support that will ensure that any deal with Russia won’t fall apart.
Syrian rebels continue to advance. They have taken the city of Palmyra and continue to move south. Putin is either unable or unwilling to come to the rescue
Imagine Russia invades a small(er) European NATO country. The invasion is unexpected and large, with hundreds of brigades and thousands of tanks, the way it was done in Ukraine
Will the EU capital hold? I am not sure 1/
If the invasion is a surprise, the scale is massive, the speed I fast, at least part of that EU country gets occupied. Perhaps, even the entire country.
What’s next? 2/
Obviously, NATO comes to rescue on day 1 of the invasion, but does it strike Moscow with nukes? Conventional weapons? It is world war three for sure. I am skeptical there will be a quick and large counterstrike on Russia. Instead, NATO will debate a proper response. 3/
Lavrov, through Tucker Carlson, delivers a sharp, manipulative pitch: Russia is ready to deal directly with Europe, bypassing the U.S. He tells Europeans they shouldn’t suffer for America’s fight but focus on their own security and prosperity with Russia
He said: 1/
Lavrov tries to exploit and amplify transatlantic friction by suggesting that Europe suffers needlessly due to U.S.-led policies
He also presents Russia as a rational actor - it is a willing partner for dialogue, against perceived U.S. arrogance 2/
Lavrov appeals to pride of Europeans by distancing themselves from American leadership, and offering mutual interests in stability and energy
This is aimed at destabilizing the EU and NATO. And it is a long game. 3/
Lavrov: we didn’t attack Ukraine. It is Ukraine and the U.S. who attacked us
Translation: War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is Strength 1/
Lavrov: We have no intention of attacking anyone at all. Right now, the United States has attacked us through the Ukrainian regime and is waging war against us using Ukrainian neo-Nazis,
Translation: we deluded ourselves that we can do whatever we want and then deny it 2/
Lavrov: [The US] arming them and helping them shell our territory with long-range weapons, directly participating in the preparation of such attacks.
Translation: We thought they wouldn’t fight back. 3/
Zelenskyy Chief of Staff / President’s Office Andriy Yermak is now in the U.S. working on the future between the U.S. and Ukraine.
He is effectively the person number 2 in the country and leads the foreign policy
3/