ChrisO_wiki Profile picture
Dec 7 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Russia is estimated to have spent hundreds of billions of rubles on its intervention in Syria, which also cost the lives of hundreds of Russian troops. Now the entire investment is likely to be lost with the Assad regime's probable imminent fall. ⬇️
2/ The independent Russian publication Agency News has compiled some estimates of the costs of Russia's nine-year intervention in Syria between 2013-2024. No official figures have been published apart from Putin stating the cost as 33 billion rubles ($570m then) in 2016.
3/ The Russian government also provided Syria with tens of millions of dollars' worth of 'charitable aid' in the form of goods, according to official customs data.
4/ Various estimates have been made for the daily cost of Russian military operations in Syria: $2.3 to $4 million (IHS Jane's), €2.7 million (Kommersant-Dengi), $2.5 million (RBC), $4 to $8 million (RUSI).
5/ The total cost of the intervention was estimated at 58 billion rubles ($1 billion) by September 2016, while the Yabloko party estimated in July 2017 that 140 billion rubles ($2.4 billion) had been spent by that time.
6/ Radio Liberty estimated in early March 2018 that Russia's expenses by then could range from 172 to 245 billion rubles. Most of this was accounted for by air strikes (from 143 billion to 209 billion rubles) and missiles (from 5.98 billion to 9.97 billion rubles).
7/ Russia also sustained significant losses. Between 16.94 billion and 19.14 billion rubles worth of military equipment is estimated to have been lost. At least 131 Russians were reported to have died in Syria between January and October of 2017.
8/ In one incident alone in 2018, a minimum of several dozen Wagner Group mercenaries were killed when they attempted to attack a US outpost in eastern Syria. It's likely that the total Russian death toll since 2011 is in at least the high hundreds.
9/ Russia has also invested heavily in its naval base in Tartus, which it has used since 1971, and in the Hmeimim Air Base near Latakia. With the rapid collapse of the Assad regime, it's now looking likely that Russia's investment in Syria will have been futile. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Dec 7
1/ The Russian army is reported to have come up with a new way of saving costs: it is forcing mobilised soldiers to sign contracts, which means they do not have to be paid as much if they are not on the front line. ⬇️ Image
2/ Most Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine are either volunteers or professional military personnel who have signed contracts, or are mobilised personnel who were involuntarily enlisted from September 2022 onwards.
3/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, the Russian General Staff has come up with "another way to save money. An unofficial order was issued to all units to transfer all mobilised soldiers to a contract basis."
Read 8 tweets
Dec 6
1/ Sick and wounded Russian soldiers have been taken from the hospital where they were being treated for serious injuries, hepatitis, and cancer, and sent back to the fighting in Ukraine without their fitness being assessed. Some have threatened to shoot themselves.
2/ The men, many of whom are from the Russian-occupied Abkhazia region of Georgia, were sent to Afipsky, Krasnodar Krai for treatment for various diseases and injuries. They recorded an appeal on 4 December asking for their departure to the war zone to be halted.
3/ "Someone has categories G and D. I have hepatitis C. The majority are those who cannot be there. They don't let us go through the VVK [military-medical commission], the VVK is assigned by the base. They don't let us finish anything: neither the VVK, nor leave.
Read 8 tweets
Dec 5
1/ Russia is reportedly spending at least 10 billion rubles ($99 million) to build a massive defensive system in the Kursk region, having already spent 3 billion rubles ($29.7 million) to build defences that comprehensively failed to keep out the Ukrainians. ⬇️ Image
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that "the entire border area is being turned into one large fortified area."

"According to local residents, in the Kursk region the most profitable and popular job for men is labour on the construction of fortifications."
3/ "The working day begins at 8 am and ends at 8 pm. They are paid 5 thousand rubles ($49.50) per shift in cash per day. According to the most conservative estimates, at least 10 billion rubles from the federal budget will be spent on construction.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 5
1/ A useful corrective thought from the Russian military analyst Alexey Sukonkin on the ineffectiveness of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine:

"If we are talking about a single nuclear strike of 'tactical power', then we should understand that, … Image
2/ … according to the old Soviet combat regulations, its goal was to defeat (not destroy, but defeat, and these are slightly different categories for assessing the damage inflicted on the enemy), for example, a tank company on the march. That is, 10-14 tanks. No more.
3/ "As an illustration, I suggest looking at a diagram from a Soviet textbook on tactics (Voenizdat, 1988, ISBN 5-203-00810-8), which shows a maneuver of forces to close a gap in the defense of a motorised rifle battalion that was subjected to an enemy nuclear strike…
Read 5 tweets
Dec 5
1/ Russia's VT-40 'Judgment Day' FPV drones are reportedly blowing up on launch and killing their own operators. It's the latest in a series of problems that are being blamed on a manufacturer that appears to be more interested in quantity than quality. ⬇️ Image
2/ The 'Romanov Light' Telegram channel reports:

"In the last few months, when launching VT-40 Sudoplatov "Judgment Day" FPVs, there have been more frequent cases of warheads being initiated during drone launch. There are quite a few dead and wounded."
3/ "Considering that it takes a considerable amount of time to train a good FPV operator, these losses are especially noticeable. Among the dead are operators of very serious units and services.
Read 16 tweets
Dec 4
1/ Russian soldiers are being incentivised with financial bonuses or extra leave if they shoot down drones. This has reportedly led to some Russians deliberately shooting down their own drones to earn the benefits being offered. ⬇️
2/ The Russian military analyst Alexey Sukonkin writes:

"It's been clear to everyone for a long time that the main problem on the front line is drones."
3/ "All possible methods are used to combat them, and incentives have been introduced for those fighters who shoot down enemy 'birds'.
Read 12 tweets

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