Thread of some surprising things that are older than other things
Notre Dame predates the Maori settlement of New Zealand
Oxford is older than the Aztecs
The Great Pyramid of Giza was completed before Woolly Mammoths went extinct
The University of Bologna is quite literally older than "Time Immemorial" (1189, the beginning of the reign of King Richard I)
A bridge still in use in Trier is nearly a thousand years older than the Inca Empire
Socrates is about as old as the oldest Nazca Lines
Polynesians started settling the Hawaiian Islands about 500 years after the fall of Rome
Nintendo is older than sliced bread
The Taj Mahal is younger than Shakespeare
The Cherokee Alphabet postdates the U.S. Constitution
Alexander the Great got to India about 600 years before Bantu speakers got to South Africa
Cleopatra lived closer to the creation of the iPhone than to the construction of the Great Pyramid
Harvard is older than Hasidic Judaism
The fax machine predates the telephone
The start of the Great Wall of China predates Islam
The Sámi identity postdates Protestantism
You can probably think of a lot more than these examples. There really are so many things that feel modern, or dated to a particular era, that just aren't.
Göbekli Tepe was coextensive in time with the giant sloth
The grandson of the tenth U.S. president, John Tyler (born 1790), is still alive (born 1928).
The Last Samurai died twelve years after Abraham Lincoln
Order of these Supreme Court cases:
Katz 1967: electronic microphone placing outside a phonebooth needs a warrant
Kyllo 2001: thermograms of a residence need a warrant
Jardines 2013: dog sniffs on curtilage need a warrant
Ramos 2020: juries in criminal cases must be unanimous
The first vending machine might have been for holy water:
World War I devastated Britain and likely slowed down its technological progress🧵
The reason being, the youth are the engine of innovation.
Areas that saw more deaths saw larger declines in patenting in the years following the war.
To figure out the innovation effects of losing a large portion of a generation's young men who were just coming into the primes of their lives, the authors needed four pieces of data.
The first were the numbers and pre-war locations of soldiers who died.
The next components were the numbers and locations of patent filings.
If you look at both graphs, you see obvious total population effects. So, areas must be normalized.
You know how most books on Amazon are AI slop now? If you didn't, look at the publication numbers.
Compare those to the proportion Pangram flags as AI-generated. It's fully aligned with the implied numbers based on the rise over 2022 publication levels!
Similarly, the rise of pro se litigants has come with a rise in case filings detected as being AI-generated, and with virtually zero false-positives before AI was around.
Pierre Guillaume Frédéric le Play argued that France's early fertility decline was driven by its inheritance reforms, where estates had to be split up equally to all of the kids, including the girls.
There's likely something to this!🧵
For reference, the French Revolution ushered in a number of egalitarian laws.
A major example of these had to do with inheritance, and in particular with partibility.
In some areas of France, there was partible inheritance, and in others, it was impartible.
Partible inheritance refers to inheritance spread among all of a person's heirs, sometimes including girls, sometimes not.
Impartible inheritance on the other hands refers to the situation where the head of an estate can nominate a particular heir to get all or a select portion.
In terms of their employment, religion, and sex, people who joined the Nazi party started off incredibly distinct from the people in their communities.
It's only near the end of WWII when they started resembling everyday Germans.
Early on, a lot of this dissimilarity is due to hysteresis.
Even as the party was growing, people were selectively recruited because they were often recruited by their out-of-place friends, and they were themselves out-of-place.
It took huge growth to break that.
And you can see the decline of fervor based on the decline of Nazi imagery in people's portraits.
And while this is observed by-and-large, it's not observed among the SS, who had a consistently higher rate of symbolic fanaticism.
I simulated 100,000 people to show how often people are "thrice-exceptional": Smart, stable, and exceptionally hard-working.
I've highlighted these people in red in this chart:
If you reorient the chart to a bird's eye view, it looks like this:
In short, there are not many people who are thrice-exceptional, in the sense of being at least +2 standard deviations in conscientiousness, emotional stability (i.e., inverse neuroticism), and intelligence.
To replicate this, use 42 as the seed and assume linearity and normality
The decline of trust is something worth caring about, and reversing it is something worth doing.
We should not have to live constantly wondering if we're being lied to or scammed. Trust should be possible again.
I don't know how we go about regaining trust and promoting trustworthiness in society.
It feels like there's an immense level of toleration of untrustworthy behavior from everyone: scams are openly funded; academics congratulate their fraudster peers; all content is now slop.
What China's doing—corruption crackdowns and arresting fraudsters—seems laudable, and I think the U.S. and other Western nations should follow suit.
Fraud leads to so many lives being lost and so much progress being halted or delayed.