#HTS's tip-of-the-spear advance across #Syria has presented international actors with a huge legal/policy dilemma -- a 🧵
After 2 days of #Syria diplomatic talks, it's clear most are considering the likelihood that designations may need re-considering.
After 2 days of #Syria diplomatic talks, it's clear most are considering the likelihood that designations may need re-considering.
For several years, the U.S. & Europeans have been aware of #HTS's ideological & behavioral change in #Idlib, and the Salvation Govt too -- but the lack of investment in serious #Syria policy meant there was little need to do more than acknowledge & monitor.
On a simple level: #Jolani has a $10 million reward on his head, but he's spent years operating in the open, with no concern for his safety. US drones continued to operate, meanwhile.
If his designation (& #HTS's) were still rock-solid, he'd be dead by now.
If his designation (& #HTS's) were still rock-solid, he'd be dead by now.
Throughout this period of time, as far as I'm aware, there has been some ad hoc direct/indirect communication between #HTS & the US government. Core Europeans have had more substantive contact on a wide range of #Syria policy issues.
It's also an open secret that #HTS has played a role in external government counterterrorism needs in NW #Syria -- quietly detaining & deporting a number of #AlQaeda & #ISIS-linked terror suspects & assisting in a number of covert CT actions inside #Idlib.
Let's also not forget that #HTS's Salvation Gov't has become a widely accepted governing entity by government stakeholders in NW #Syria -- the UN has a permanent office in #Idlib & external aid & education/health programming is coordinated thru SSG bodies.
All of the above (covert contact & work with the SSG) could occur despite #HTS's designation, but it's now acknowledged that #HTS will require a seat at the table in determining #Syria's future.
That will - eventually - require a shift in listing status.
That will - eventually - require a shift in listing status.
Designation de-listing is a complex & unwieldy issue. My understanding is that sequenced conditions will be put on the table for #HTS to meet -- involving military, political & governance reforms, and moves toward accountability for prior documented crimes.
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