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Naftali Hazony

@nhazony

Dec 9 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

Israel has conquered Mt. Hermon, the highest mountain in Syria, its peak reaching 2,814m. Syria’s capital, Damascus, is only 40 km away, now within range of Israel’s artillery shells. Here’s why Israel took this mountain:
1/7 🧵

For decades, Israel’s northern defenses were overshadowed by Syria's Mt. Hermon. No longer. The most important natural fortress in the region is now in the hands of Israel. Israel did it quietly, driving into Syria's abandoned positions and taking them without a fight. 2/7

In the past, Israel’s radars suffered from a significant blind spot, unable to see beyond Mt. Hermon and parts of Lebanon from their position on Mt. Meron. Iran's low-flying drones exploited this weakness, infiltrating Israel time and time again. 3/7

Once placed on Mt. Hermon, Israel’s radars will see far into both Syria and Lebanon, providing early warning of incoming low-flying jets and drones. Israel’s intelligence can also leverage the peak, placing sensors to conduct surveillance and intercept enemy communications. 4/7

The mountains also provide the perfect cover for Israel’s special forces and spies, who can now enter Syria more freely, conducting missions under the cover of darkness. 5/7

As the sun rises, Mt. Hermon casts a shadow over Hezbollah’s stronghold in Southern Lebanon, dominating the main road to their northern stronghold in the Beqaa Valley. Several of Hezbollah’s smuggling routes north of the Hermon have been cut off. 6/7

Be it ISIS, HTS, Iran, or Hezbollah, a hostile force advancing toward Israel will now be exposed -- at the mercy of Israel’s drones, surface-to-surface missiles, and laser-guided bombs. Residents of north Israel can sleep more soundly knowing that Israel controls this peak. 7/7

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More from @nhazony

Naftali Hazony

@nhazony

Dec 3

The rebels are now advancing towards Hama, Syria, and are only 40km away from the strategic city of Homs. But who are these rebels? Who is their leader? And what might they do if they took control of Syria? 1/13 🧵

The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an organization founded in 2017 by Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani. Jawlani had previously founded the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra with support from the leader of ISIS, Baghdadi. 2/13

But Baghdadi and Jawlani had different styles: In 2012, both Baghdadi (ISIS) and Jawlani (Al Nusra) captured American journalists. ISIS publicly beheaded Steven Sotloff and James Foley. Al Nusra held Theo Pandos for two years before releasing him in 2014. 3/13

Read 13 tweets

Naftali Hazony

@nhazony

Nov 29

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1861688335132975122

Some are saying that Israel lost to Hezbollah by agreeing to the Biden-imposed ceasefire in Lebanon. But what has Israel accomplished in Lebanon? And how will this influence Israel’s war with Iran? 🧵1/11

https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1861688335132975122

Israel launched its offensive in Lebanon on September 17th. Thousands of Hezbollah fighters were blinded and dismembered when Israel detonated their pocket pagers. Hospitals in Lebanon were so overwhelmed that they had fly them to Iran for treatment. 2/11

Israel then targeted every single Hezbollah leader, killing nearly everyone from Nasrallah at the top down to even junior commanders in the field. By the time Israel launched its ground offensive on October 1st, Hezbollah’s leadership was incapacitated. 3/11

Read 11 tweets

Naftali Hazony

@nhazony

Nov 3

Military maneuvers are now underway near a ballistic missile base in Tabriz, Iran. Israel is bracing for an Iranian attack. But exactly how much damage can Iran’s missiles inflict on Israel? 🧵1/9

This video dated October 1st shows dozens of Iranian ballistic missiles raining down on Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, where some of Israel’s F35 stealth fighter jets are located. Only a few interceptions are seen in this video and most of these missiles hit the base. 2/9

But most of Iran’s ballistic missiles are inaccurate, striking as far as 3km away from their target. While they can certainly hit airbases 10km wide, they can’t accurately target Israel’s F35 jets, which are 10 meters wide and housed in fortified concrete shelters. 3/9

Read 9 tweets

Naftali Hazony

@nhazony

Oct 29

Israel destroyed Iran's S300 defense systems and can now use long-range bombs to target key leaders in Iran. The failed Iranian assassination attempt on Israel's PM Netanyahu last week sets the stage. Iran’s leader Khomeini is now exposed.

Here’s how it could unfold:
(1/13) 🧵

On Saturday, Israel destroyed the last of Iran’s advanced S300 batteries. These long-range batteries could shoot down aircraft over 80 miles away. Iran is now forced to rely on dozens of medium-range defense systems, including the deadly “Hordad.” (2/13)

https://x.com/nhazony/status/1843306381463732403

The Iranian-developed “Hordad” can shoot down aircraft over 50 miles away. Dozens of "Hordads," along with several other systems, create a 50-mile safe zone around Iran’s sites. But 50 miles of defense is simply not enough. (3/13)

https://x.com/nhazony/status/1843306381463732403

Read 14 tweets

Naftali Hazony

@nhazony

Oct 7

This map shows how Iranian air defense systems could be layered to protect its nuclear and ballistic missile sites and oil fields. Each circle marks the “kill zone” of an Iranian air defense system.

Can Israel penetrate Iran’s defense? 1/10🧵

Iran’s air defense consists of four S300 battalions complemented by dozens of Russian SA-22 and Iranian-made “Som-Khordad” and “Bavar 373” air defense systems, among the most advanced in the world. 2/10🧵

Each Iranian S300 battalion can shoot down fighter jets over 100 miles away, launching a dozen missiles at as many as six targets at a time. Israeli fighter jets would have difficulty outmaneuvering S300 missiles, which travel at over 5 times the speed of sound.
3/10🧵

Read 10 tweets

Naftali Hazony

@nhazony

Sep 29

Yesterday, Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader Nasrallah in Lebanon, only a week after injuring thousands of Hezbollah terrorists, destroying its communication networks, and killing its entire chain of command.

But why hasn’t Israel invaded Lebanon? 🧵1/9

Many assume Israel’s war will take place exclusively in Lebanon. But a closer look is required. Who exactly is Israel fighting? 🧵2/9

In 2011, Iran assembled an army of Shiite militias, including 20,000 “Fatemiyoun” fighters from Afghanistan, 5,000 “Zainabiyoun” fighters from Pakistan, and tens of thousands of Hezbollah fighters from Iraq and Lebanon. 🧵3/9