Today saw the release of minutes for the working group set up to advise MHRA on the covid vaccines.
They knew the issues but ignored them...🧵
On 27th November they briefly discussed a lack of any potential benefit for the under 50s but quickly concluded that there was a favourable risk/benefit for anyone aged over 16 years!
2024 and 2025 has seen total mortality at about the same level as ONS predicted back in 2018 (already taking into account ageing and growing population).
Let's look in more detail
🧵
Over 85 year old rate (based on ONS pop estimates) have returned to their 2016-2019 trendline.
Despite massive excess there was never the expected deficit.
The ONS predicted far too many deaths in 2024 and undercorrected for 2025 (green line).
The picture is similar for 75-84 year olds with far too many ONS predicted deaths in 2024 and an small correction for 2025.
I have taken a deep dive to understand exactly what's happening with deaths of under 1 year olds.
Who wants to look at baby deaths?
I get it.
But DO NOT LOOK AWAY.
It is....
First of all I did this because of frustration with people arguing over what "expected" deaths should look like.
You can make up reasons for picking particular years and come up with a totally different story.
'99-'19 excess deaths from '21
'11-'16 deficit in deaths from '21
What can we do to see if the rise is meaningful?
First we can look monthly ('24 and '25 data is incomplete)
Here are the monthly deaths for females which rises from March 2021 (having been below expected before) and stays high except for deficit in winter 2021-2022.