Here's the UN strategy to manipulate what you thought:

30mins
It goes on...

1/9 🧵

ONS aren’t the only gov agency to model expected deaths.

OHID do too.

Their method is simpler:
1. Take average from 2015-2019
2. Adjust for subsequent population growth
3. Adjust for subsequent ageing

The difference between these models is stark. 2/9

The ONS have not released their data for England by age only for the UK as a whole.

To compare with OHID I took the ratio of expected deaths in 2020 and 2021 and used that to scale the OHID England estimate to all of UK.

It goes off the rails in mid 2022.

I have buried myself deep in the ONS data today in an attempt to redeem myself after my mistake with accidentally including Wales in my sums earlier this week.

In brief, ONS have moved from predicting deaths based on previous years to modelling them.
It look complex but... it is mostly justifiable.

Each zigzag sigma symbol just means "add them all up".

The modelling calculates an estimate for lots of small groups and then adds them together.

This large hike in numbers is from the baby boomers feeding through and is evident when they switched categories before.

This is what it looks like over time for old and new methodology.

Let me explain in a couple more tweets. 🧵

https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/status/1760218693814862244

ONS have just expanded pop by ~5% for every age group since 2005.

A bigger population means a lower mortality rate (deaths per 100k people_.

This is what the mortality rates look like for each age group now.

Hard to see any impact from covid.

Here are over 90 yr olds:

White blood clots occurred pre-covid panic in the arterial system.

They are white because there are few red blood cells in them - it's a sign they were made in a high flow environment.

Vaccine injury can contribute.

Here's how. 🧵

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
1. The mRNA platform results in foreign protein expression in endothelial cells and their consequent death. This creates a pro-thrombotic surface.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

Here's an interesting accusation.

1. I have never, ever promoted these products in any way.

2. I do not promote them now.

It all comes down to understanding the two biggest lies you were told about the virus.

The Tsunami Lie.

🧵

https://twitter.com/biologyphen0m/status/1733036623237898413

The lie we were told was that there was a novel virus and that everyone would catch it.

We were ALL susceptible, you see.

The lie was based on believing in the measles model of transmission.

I have been digging into what this graph means.

These are deaths of people from "other respiratory diseases."

Along comes a "deadly respiratory virus" and they stop dying?

Let's try and make sense of this. There were three ways of being included in this data if you had a respiratory death:

1. Acute respiratory infection deaths
2. Chronic respiratory disease (which includes CPOD, empyhsema, asthma and bronchitis)
3. Other

Any of the above could also be described as a covid death.

Study fails to define "unvaccinated".

If you add "boosted" and "fully vaccinated" to the "unvaccinated" you have every patient in the study.

Anyone with one dose was therefore "unvaccinated".

Singapore had cardiac problems before covid. hartgroup.org/singapore-is-a…

https://twitter.com/backtolife_2023/status/1711394951064433116

Here's the study academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…

Well this is embarrassing.

Yes the analysis they were criticising was wrong but this is not why!

The BBC's @BBCMoreOrLess claimed to have done an extensive peer review and name dropped all sorts of people.

It seems not one peer reviewer read the methodology. 🧵

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1709509785538760965

The reviewer took a quick glance and decided the rates had been incorrectly calculated because they had used the wrong population denominator.

That is not what happened.

The method took the rates calculated by the ONS and applied them to this wider population.

Too many people are pointing to this graph and claiming it proves vaccines saved lives.

They have looked so superficially at it that I feel embarrassed for them.

Here is why you need to look at the number shown not the spikey bit. 🧵

ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-b…
Let's look first at the vaccinated group and the more recent data.

It is worth noting that this is deaths per 100k while ALL other Our World in Data info is presented per million.

First, let's fix that.

Here's the description of deaths in the Moderna trial.

Why no mention of covid in safety description of the deaths?

Which death was it that was blamed on covid?

nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
@a_nineties One covid death in vaccine arm not included in efficacy analysis.

For those of you who know an unvaccinated person who has had omicron ask yourself this.

How bad was it really?

Compared to other colds how likely would it be to kill someone who was frail?

Now hold that thought and let's look closer at Germany.

🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪🇩🇪 Germany had 48k 'covid' deaths in 2022.

The people at risk of dying are all vaccinated.

If vaccines offered 90% protection from death
there would have been 480k deaths in a year
in absence of vaccination.

(For 95% protection there would have been 960k deaths).

The future will be better.

Anyone who imagines a world of "useless eaters" stuck on drugs and playing video games has no understanding of how human societies work.

🧵 In 1894 the Times predicted that “in 50 years, every street in London will be buried under nine feet of manure.”

Imagine taking someone from 1894 London and giving them a tour of current London.

The AstraZeneca Files are really revealing.

There are a total of 26 participants who had a mention of atrial fibrillation (AF) in their adverse event reports.

At first glance it looks benign - but it really isn't.

🧵 There were 12 AF events in the AZ group

and 14 in the placebo group.

The placebo group is half as big so this is the equivalent of 28 when comparing to the AZ group.

But there's more to this story.

The vaccinated are predisposed to catching covid.

The information to support this is overwhelming and it is true no matter which way you look at it.

🧵 Low 'vax' countried stopped seeing covid deaths with Omicron unlike high 'vax' countries.

https://twitter.com/Humble_Analysis/status/1557454058478153728?s=20

The BMJ have embarrassed themselves again.

This time they have published a political campaign piece by Independent Sage who are continuing the fear mongering about covid in children.

Here's one author campaigning to give children booster injections only yesterday.
🧵 Let's start by imaging what the authors wanted to write.

1. Covid caused immense harm to children
2. Vaccinated children did not get sick with covid
3. Vaccinated children did not go on to get the post covid immune syndrome PIMS
4. Vaccinated children did not die with / of covid

Here's a short comparison of deaths in countries that had high vs low vaccination rates.

I am not trying to say that countries don't have differences.

However, the claim of 95% efficacy against covid deaths means that the unvaxed would be left with a mortality rate 20 x as high The key is the Delta wave - which happened after extensive vaccination of the vulnerable but at different times in different countries.

We are constantly told the Delta wave "would have been so much worse" if it hadn't been for vaccination.

But would it?

Here are the death curves for the over 65s in Florida.

It is a repeating pattern.

There has been so much focus on "cases" which are hard to measure accurately and have never been measured before.

It is really important to think through the implications of this. 🧵 In previous years other respiratory viruses caused waves of death of varying, but broadly similar, size.

These waves were at the upper end of severity in terms of death compared to previous respiratory viruses.

Thanks to @RealJoelSmalley for the analysis.

Peter Hotez sites Cotton Mather as a hero forefather of vaccination.

During a smallpox outbreak in 1721 he took pus from infected sores and injected it into the arms of the healthy.

This was the result.

Incidentally, he ran the Salem witch trials.

jci.org/articles/view/… Cotton Mather claimed a 2% mortality rate from his procedure but I trust the real world data more than his word on that.

I think it's important to note the risk of purity spirals at the moment.

A purity spiral happens when people expressing nuance are ignored in favour of those expressing extreme views.

Both sides are at risk of it.

There are lessons we can learn from history about it.🧵 150 years ago germ theory was not yet accepted.

The view held by the mainstream and those in power was that of 'miasma theory' - that infectious disease spreads through bad air.

Germ theory proponents were treated like cranks and they had to fight hard to eventually persuade.

The young are dying too much across Europe.

Here is EUROMOMO data by age group. I am going to work up the age groups.

85+ this year is tracking 2019. 75-84 year olds are tracking 2019