Dr Clare Craig Profile picture
Diagnostic pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Views my own not the RCPath's.
Rhonda Fairman Profile picture ChrisDL Profile picture Funks69 Profile picture Elaine Profile picture Jc James Profile picture 13 added to My Authors
22 Nov
China is trolling us with this and Nature should be embarrassed at having published it: nature.com/articles/s4146…
It claims 10M people were tested in the last two weeks of June in Wuhan. That's over 700k tests a day. I do not believe that - do you?
It then claims that not a single COVID case was found i.e. COVID disease with symptoms capable of spread - weeks after all the drama. I do not believe that - do you?
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov
Southend has lots of deaths but very few cases:
Same with Castle Point:
North Somerset on the other hand has lots of cases but few deaths:
Read 7 tweets
21 Nov
On 11th Nov, ONS estimates that Salford had 4300 COVID cases per 100,000. That is 16x higher than the rates the ONS estimated for the country as a whole from 27th Apr until 10th May.
Estimates from community testing put the figure at just over 50 per 100,000. That's quite a discrepancy. Why can't they find all these cases?
In contrast, the ONS estimates that Hull has 250 cases per 100,000. So only 10x higher than the whole country between 27th April and 10th May.
Read 5 tweets
20 Nov
More evidence of testing errors. I am going to show you a graph of the number of admissions per case diagnosed with COVID. First, let’s think what it should show.
At the beginning the admissions per case will be high because the only testing was done in hospitals. As we increased testing in the community and found more cases it should fall and keep falling.
In August and September, when we were mass testing people in their 20s who don’t go to hospital much, there should be another fall.
Read 12 tweets
18 Nov
Somerset seems to be fairing much better than other parts of the country. Odd that the fatality rate should vary so much by region isn't it? Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Slovakia has just put rocket boosters under their COVID deaths. Within two weeks they've gone from virtually zero deaths to rates as high as Peru and Brazil had at their peak. So what happened?
Mass population testing was begun which resulted in 8x as many tests per day as were done at peak in Brazil. The tests were not perfect (none are) and so a percentage were labelled as positive when they did not have COVID. Some died. That's all that has happened. Slovakia is safe
Slovenia on the other hand rolled out mass testing and then decided it had been a bad idea.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
Switzerland were not badly hit in spring (peak 46 deaths per day). Currently they have 75 'COVID' deaths per day. Yet their excess death graph looks exactly like 2017.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
We need to stop comparing 2020 deaths with 2015 deaths. It's an unreasonable baseline.
Plus 'excess deaths' needs to be explained. They are not really 'excess' if it happens with every flu season. As long as we are not exceeding normal flu excesses then they are not really excess deaths.
Read 4 tweets
13 Nov
Let me tell you about a different test. The COVID antibody test. This has demonstrated that only 7% of the UK population had antibodies to COVID in May (it was 17% in London).
We know that people who had COVID in spring got these antibodies. So does that mean 90% of us remain susceptible as SAGE says. It does not. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This is a measurement error. Let me explain. With every test there will be definite negatives, definite positives and a grey area in between. There is a choice about how to classify the grey area.
Read 28 tweets
13 Nov
The ONS have produced a thorough piece of research into non-COVID excess deaths. It is important work. Immense harm has been caused by changes in behaviour and people have died (and are still dying) as a result.
A&E attendances fell from the beginning of March. At the end of February we were told to isolate if we, those we shared a household with had a cough or fever.
That meant people with coughs and fevers were dissuaded from attending A&E. It also meant that healthcare were understaffed. With increasing numbers of us falling ill this had a large effect. Ambulance response times tripled to an average of an hour. thetimes.co.uk/article/reveal…
Read 13 tweets
12 Nov
Test always perform worse than hoped when used in real world situations. What's key here is that the antibody tests used pre-COVID blood as a negative control. They were designed to say anyone with prior immunity was 'negative'. They tell us who had COVID not who is immune now.
There's always a grey area between definite positives and definite negatives. If you include all the grey area you find that over 40% of the population are had immunity to COVID in May. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
But PHE went one step further. Instead of testing for just the unique spike protein antibodies they tested for all the COVID proteins. They found more than half of people who had no symptoms in spring (ie were immune) had antibodies. thelancet.com/journals/eclin…
Read 6 tweets
11 Nov
Here is the acute respiratory outbreak from PHE. First look at winter - the peak of acute respiratory infections (diagnosed through symptoms) is about 200 per week. Then we had COVID with a massive care home spike, peaking at 1200 a week.
Now we have this:
1400 outbreaks a week. Diagnosed not by symptoms but by positive test results. And where are these outbreaks? Care homes and hospitals are being tested regularly so will have test positive outbreaks regularly.
Read 5 tweets
11 Nov
@jengleruk has just showed me how ridiculous the data is now looking for Europe as a whole. Here are cases:
Here are COVID labelled deaths
And here is total excess mortality:
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
This is a beautiful map. First one if for women. THREAD
Men is similar: From here envhealthatlas.co.uk/eha/COPD/
It looks a lot like where we are seeing 'COVID' deaths at the moment. Look at London, South West, North West, North East, Wales in particular. But this is a map of COPD - a chronic respiratory disease.
Read 6 tweets
7 Nov
@d_spiegel @ldwijesinghe @BBCr4today @ClareCraig @MichaelYeadon3 Prof, take a look at the ages of the excess deaths. All data from here: fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports…
@d_spiegel @ldwijesinghe @BBCr4today @ClareCraig @MichaelYeadon3 You could argue that increased disease leads to more testing - but how can you explain deaths falling when testing decreases?
@d_spiegel @ldwijesinghe @BBCr4today @ClareCraig @MichaelYeadon3 Deaths per case have increased since September. Deaths per admission and per ITU bed occupied have increased too. However, admission per case and ITU per case have decreased. So more deadly but less severe? It's a false positive pseudoepidemic. lockdownsceptics.org/how-covid-deat…
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov
Here are some interesting correlations between numbers tested and 'COVID' deaths:
Read 9 tweets
28 Oct
Don't get tested on a Friday or Saturday. Here are the percentage of positive tests in Scotland. There's a weekly cycle.
You're twice as likely to test positive on a Friday than on a Sunday. Once a week the lab will have a thorough clean and will bring out new chemicals for testing. I think I know which day they're doing that.
This is a result of a) PCR testing being a difficult test to do with only the tiniest amount of material needed to contaminate results and b) laboratories being under huge pressure to process volumes of tests at speed. Either volume or speed must be compromised to enable quality.
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
Let's think a bit harder about why people might be dying in excess at the moment. Look what happened in spring to visits to A&E for heart attacks and angina.
Levels dropped to 60% of normal. People will have died because of that whether it was from fear or lockdowns. We are now creating fear and having lockdowns again. What is happening to deaths?
Here are excess deaths for people with heart attacks
Read 6 tweets
28 Oct
The excess deaths we are currently seeing are in young people; older women; and strokes, heart attacks and diabetes. There are fewer respiratory deaths than normal for the time of year. COVID killed old men and is a respiratory disease. This is not COVID.
Read 5 tweets
25 Oct
Liverpool University Trust has had the most COVID deaths since September of any NHS trust. From 01/09/20 until 25/10/20 there have been 140 'COVID' deaths. This is 27% of all the COVID deaths since March. No excess mortality.
Here are some hypotheses:
a) these are not COVID deaths but misdiagnoses
b) COVID is killing people who would have died otherwise and beating influenza to it. The new 'old man's friend' that was influenza.
c) People are dying with COVID not of COVID

I think it's a.
Read 6 tweets
22 Oct
In spring, the death rate per week was double normal for the over 55s. What is happening now?
Recent COVID deaths appear to have risen since week 36.
It is worth comparing this pattern to the pattern of % positive tests. The rise in positive tests starts in week 36. There has been no lag between this rise in positive tests and resulting rise in % of COVID deaths as proportion of mean 2015-2019 deaths.
Read 5 tweets