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Deedy Profile picture
@deedydas
Dec 10 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
HUGE Immigration News!

We have the first EVER look at H-1B lottery data. Did you also suspect the lottery wasn't truly random? They're not.

Certain companies like Tiktok and Bytedance have 50% higher odds than average.

I broke it down by nationality, company and age...

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By Age.

In 2024, there were 350,084 applications and 85,304 were selected, a 24.4% acceptance rate.

The process seems to have rampant ageism, with only ages 26-32 having above average acceptance rates.

A 26yo has 50% higher odds than a 36yo+!

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By Country.

Inexplicably, China and Taiwan are the best performing nationalities followed by Iran and Bangladesh (!?). India is below average.

Bangladeshis have 25% more chance of getting an H-1B than an Indian.

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By Employer.

Looking at employers with min 250 applicants, at the upper end you see all your usual suspects and the sketchy IT staffing companies on the bottom end.

Overall, AMD / Bytedance and Tiktok were at the top. An Adobe employee has 50% more chance than an Uber one.

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Although, I haven't done the full analysis from 2021 - 2024, a cursory glance shows a lot of these trends stand up over the years, particularly age + nationality. Company acceptance rates show some variance.

A lot of this data is news for people!

5/5
Source: github.com/BloombergGraph…

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More from @deedydas

Deedy Profile picture
Dec 10
As cool as the new Sora is, gymnastics is still very much the Turing test for AI video.

1/4
Attempt 2.

2/4
Attempt 3

3/4
Read 5 tweets
Deedy Profile picture
Dec 4
A small company in the <1M city of Niigata, Japan has a monopoly on the equipment that makes every single modern iPhone and TV display on the planet.

Here's the story of Tokki, the most important company you've never heard of...

1/8 Image
Tokki makes just ~10 ELVESS machines a year.

Each one is a clean room within a clean room, stretching longer than an Olympic swimming pool, and can costs $ 100M+. They're the only ones who can do it.

2/8
These machines deposit layers of organic materials 1/2000th the width of a human hair. One speck of dust ruins everything - that's why they operate in vacuum chambers cleaner than an operating room.

3/8
Read 10 tweets
Deedy Profile picture
Dec 3
The middle manager is the biggest culprit of the "quiet quitting" SWE epidemic.

They have 0 incentive to fire. The entire job is bargaining for more headcount so they can get promoted.

They'll say "we are understaffed, we need more people" no matter how little they do.

1/4
If you have multiple levels of this, its often dysfunctional down the entire chain.

The non technical middle manager are the worst culprits. ICs can (and will) swindle them endlessly into their infinite timelines. I've never worked with a good one.

2/4
A competent middle manager should be able to do the job of all their reports and say "if you think that takes 2 months, you need to find another job. It shouldn't take more than 2 weeks." (and be right)

Their managers need to keep them accountable for each report.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Deedy Profile picture
Dec 2
The youth of India spends money they don't have to play status games.

Multiple people making <₹50k ($600)/mo in their 20s are buying
— iPhone & other Apple products (on interest)
— Coldplay / Dua Lipa concerts
— trips to Thailand / Vietnam / Goa

They save little to no money.
I’ve been in India and multiple people have told me they’re essentially broke after multiple years of working.

Income asymmetry amongst similar social groups is high which can force this “suddenly my college buddy makes 90LPA but I’m at 12”

The peer pressure to “fit in” is high
~10M people in India made 20+LPA ($25k/yr)

~10M iPhones were sold in India in just 2023. 70% of them were on EMI (interest). Image
Read 4 tweets
Deedy Profile picture
Dec 1
A viral thread about a growing number of "quiet quitting" SWEs was seen 15M+ times (and led to a crack down at Box)

My DMs have been full of ppl telling me that people badge in for 30mins/day and go on 5+ intl vacations/yr at these companies.

Here's what went down..

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— Stanford researcher concluded ~10% of SWEs are ghosts
— Box Founder / CEO said "fml", his mom texted him, and then he sent a company-wide email
— Karpathy backed it up saying he's heard it happen

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— Paul Graham hat-tipped Box founder Aaron for dealing with it respectfully
— Alex Cohen had a "never deleting this app" moment
— Marc Andreesen even mentioned mouse jigglers on Joe Rogan.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Deedy Profile picture
Nov 28
Software engineers aren't lazy.

They just have no incentive to be productive at bigCos.

Here's why:
— No reward for simplicity / deleting things
— No prizes for doing it quickly (everyone assumes it was easy)
— Little interesting work. Business needs are often boring.

1/5
— No dearth of alternate career options. Get fired? Just change jobs
— No accelerated career growth.
— No innovation. Middle managers only get fired for rocking the boat.
— No $$ reward. Stock goes up for reasons beyond your control.

2/5
— Not many firings. Cost of hiring and ramping up a replacement feels higher than keeping a mediocre SWE.
— No shareholder duty to fire. Although it happens, layoffs will rarely change the stock price.

3/5
Read 6 tweets

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