Battle of Pokrovsk
The battle of Pokrov became the biggest battle of this war. But it also became one of the largest battles in history in terms of the number of armored vehicles lost. 1/
2/ In the battles near Pokrovsk, Ru losses are close to the number of the entire Western Military District of the Ru Fed as of 2022, which was being prepared for war with NATO. And this is about 60% of the forces with which Russia planned to seize Ukraine in three days in 2022
3/ In October 2023, Ru defined the offensive on Pokrovsk as the main axis of its offensive campaign. Obviously, Putin is focused on the goal of completely capturing the Donetsk region as the highest priority goal in the coming years. But this offensive led to colossal losses.
4/ During the first few weeks of the offensive, Russian losses were estimated at 13,000 soldiers. In February 2024, Russian losses were estimated at 47,000 soldiers killed and wounded. In the future, the dynamics of battles in this direction did not decrease.
5/ Under this dynamic, Russia's total losses for 13 months of fighting in the Pokrovsky direction amount to about 150,000 soldiers killed and wounded. This is more than Russia's losses in the battles for Bakhmut (100,000).
6/ Only the visually confirmed losses of the Russian army during the 13 months of fighting in the Pokrov region amount to 1,800 units of armore. The real losses are even greater. How much is that?
7/ The number of Russian casualties in the Battle of Pokrovsk is close to the number of the Western Military District as of 2022, which included three armies: the 1st Tank Army, the 6th and 20th General Armies.
8/ The Western Military District of the Russian Federation was supposed to oppose the armed forces of NATO on the territory of Europe, and the First Tank Army was Putin's greatest pride (the largest tank army in the world).
9/ Imagine if some general proposed an offensive plan that involves the loss of three armies in the battles for two small cities with a total population of 95,000 before the war (Avdiivka and Pokrovsk). Any country would recognize this as madness.
10/ Russia lost more tanks at Pokrovsk than any country in Europe has in its army. Or more soldiers than the entire Armed Forces of the United Kingdom. Remember this when you read the news about the battles for a small town in eastern Ukraine.
11/ Perhaps in the future historians will have to revise the term "Pyrrhic victory" and replace it with "Putin's offensive"
But it does not seem that Putin and his gen are capable of abandoning the continuation of the offensive on Pokrovsk, no matter what the cost to the Ru army
12/ It is hard to believe, but the Russian losses of armored vehicles at Pokrovsk are greater than the losses of the German army in the Battle of Stalingrad.
The Battle of Pokrov may become one of the largest offensives in history in terms of the number of armored vehicles lost
13/ For every kilometer of occupied territory in this direction, Russia loses 10-15 times more resources than in all directions. And this testifies to Putin's mad obsession to show everyone that the Russian army does not stop, but continues to advance
14/ Probably, in the coming months, no less brutal battles and frontal attacks by the Russian army await us. These months will be the culmination of the Pokrovsk offensive. An offensive in which Russia will lose three armies to assert the ambitions of its dictator.
15/ I would like to thank @naalsio26 and other Osint researchers who continue to provide us with information about this war.
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Russia is suffering more and more losses trying to look like the side that is winning.
The dynamics of Russian losses indicates the price of the Russian offensive. 1/6
Russia had to go to a colossal increase in its losses in order to continue to look like the winning side. If in 2022 Russian losses amounted to about 200 soldiers per day (killed and wounded), in 2023 - about 500, then in 2024 Ru reached the mark of 1,0 and 1.5K soldiers per day
Russian losses increased 10 times compared to the first months of the war.
Given that the hostilities are taking place in fairly limited territories, the overall losses of the Russians are unprecedented. 3/6
Resources of war
Can Russia sustain this war for years? Here are some calculations to help estimate this.
Thread 1/
@RALee85 @olliecarroll @ragnarbjartur @konrad_muzyka @McFaul @HelloMrBond @SpencerGuard @JominiW
2/
Let's start with artillery, which looks the most vulnerable
Standard calculations of the resource of artillery barrels show that at the current rate of firing, Ru needs about 2.5-4К barrels per year. If we add to this direct losses in battles, Ru total need is about 4-5K per year
Half a year ago, I joined the procurement reform team of the Ministry of Defense-the Non-Lethal Procurement Agency (DOT)
This is my second "campaign" for reforms in the defense sector after Ukroboronprom in 2019. And here I would like to share some thoughts and my own experience
2/ Soviet architecture and corruption are the worst things Ukraine inherited from the USSR. In Soviet times, corruption was the only way to become a wealthy person. Wealth and commerce were prohibited by law, but the desire of people to live better did not disappear anywhere.
3/ For the first twenty years after the collapse of the USSR, Ukrainian society was aware of the problem of corruption, eventually defining it as the main enemy of democracy and the development of the state.
Struggle for resources
When Ukrainians say that we need more weapons, the West often thinks that it is a sign of ingratitude.
In fact, Ukrainians are grateful, but there is another side - how many weapons your enemy supplies to the front.
This thread will explore this topic 1/
2/ Russia
Many people look down on the Russian army after its defeats in Ukraine in the first year of the war.
But the Russian doctrine is based on the fact that Russia is able to withstand heavy defeats and incredible losses, but not to give up its political goals.
3/ Ru is still a significant power, if not in terms of the quality of weapons, but in terms of their quantity.
Since the beginning of the war, Ru has removed approximately 6,000 howitzers from its storage facilities.
Russia spent $22.8 billion on missile attacks on Ukraine.
This is more than half of all US military aid to Ukraine ($43 billion).
A short thread about missile attacks this winter: 1/7
2/7 Despite the sanctions, Russia has increased its missile production and can now produce about 100 missiles per month.
In October, Russia reduced the intensity of its use of missiles, apparently preparing for winter attacks on UA energy.
3/7 Air Defense Ukraine has become much more effective than a year ago. If until October 2022, Ukrainian air defenses shot down about 30% of missiles, then after the transfer of NASAMS, Iris-T, Patriot, Samp-T, Ukrainian air defenses began to intercept up to 80-90% of missiles.
The beginning of the offensive is the most difficult stage of the attack.
If you do not expect to catch the enemy by surprise, then the beginning of the assault is the most challenging stage 1/8
Inspired by: @bradyafr @WarintheFuture @Inkvisiit
2/8
At the beginning of the offensive, the enemy is in the most advantageous position: 1. The army has been preparing for defense for a long time and has strong defensive positions. 2. There are still enough soldiers to hold the defense and there are also reserves.
3/8 3. Artillery is ready, there is still enough ammunition. 4. Aviation works in its airspace. 5. Any accumulation of equipment or soldiers is easily tracked. 6. Breaking through several layers of minefields will inevitably lead to the loss of equipment