Thread by @Nrg8000

🧵Look towards the light.
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here
& read onaspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at-t…

There are three pillars to why the Regime collapsed so suddenly and drastically:
1. Complete lack of foreign firepower and air support
2. Increased professionalism and good governance in Opposition territory
3. Economic stagnation and the collapse of Assad's social contract.

I'm sure lots will be written on that first pillar, @azelin recently wrote a detailed and helpful article on the 2nd (warontherocks.com/2024/12/the-pa…), and @E_of_Justice's thread here is helpful too x.com/E_of_Justice/s…

But in this analysis, I am going to try and pull back the curtain on the third pillar - using night-time satellite data to demonstrate the crisis and stagnation in Regime territory that was largely hidden through censorship and oppression.

Night-time light imagery is widely seen as a proxy for economic development, with increased brightness deeply correlated to economic activity.
Thus an investigation of changes in nighttime lights across Syria can provide valuable empirical data. journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…

For decades, the Syrian army has relied on Alawite and other loyalist communities to shore up its army and impose control over much of the Sunni-majority parts of the country. In return, these communities saw patronage and preferential development (see the start of this graph)

In 2015, as Opposition forces began to make significant gains, and before Russia's intervention, the burden of these communities became clear (also see @GregoryPWaters and @SchoenbornTrent's work - especially clear here ) bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018…

@GregoryPWaters @SchoenbornTrent The effects of this burden were largely masked by battlefield successes, with Russian intervention stemming Opposition gains and enabling the Regime to capture large swaths of the country between 2016 and 2020. These communities were told that victory was just around the corner.

Following the implementation of ceasefires that froze the frontlines in 2020, these advantages didnt return. Economic mismanagement, broad societal control, cronyism and the effect of sanctions in fact saw economic activity go backwards, stabilising at around 50% of 2018 levels.

See this great recent article by @LizSly washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/…

Meanwhile, Opposition governance flourished under the increasingly responsive and civilian-led Syrian Salvation Government (acknowledging their many issues).
As early as 2021, IDP-heavy communities such as Azaz, al-Bab & Bab al-Hawa area actually became BRIGHTER than pre-war.

And this trend has not stopped, with communities across Opposition-held Idlib and Aleppo actually becoming 10x brighter in 2024 than in 2018. In spite of regular bombardment by Regime forces. And remember, this correlates extremely closely to economic activity and health.

This map shows the trend in night-time light intensity from 2020 through 2024. The limits of Opposition control is almost-perfectly delineated on this map as a positive (navy blue) trend.

SDF-controlled territory saw a similar trend of increase until 2021 when it began to decline, likely as a consequence of targeted Turkish strikes on power infrastructure (maybe one of the few things to decorrelate night-time light from economic activity)
stj-sy.org/wp-content/upl…

The contrast between Opposition and Regime governance is also clear in population figures, with estimates of the Syrian population in Opposition territory increasing from 24% to 26% between 2020-2023, despite much more insecurity from Regime strikes.
jusoor.co/en/advance-sea…

As soon as the Rebel offensive was launched, the effects of this stagnation was clear. By the 2nd day there were widespread reports () of soldiers from the loyalist coastal communities deserting the Aleppo, Idlib and Hama frontlines to return home. syriarevisited.substack.com/p/the-revoluti…

In short, after years of economic stagnation & materially worse lives for people in Loyalist communities, when shit hit the fan the army decided en masse that their sacrifice was no longer worth it. This is clear in @Rebel44CZ's and @elmustek's tracking of vehicle losses.

Some fierce resistance was mounted to the north of Hama along the "Minority-Wall" that rebels had previously struggled to overcome.
But even in many of these towns the Opposition managed to forge local deals to hand over control - a sign of confidence. syriarevisited.substack.com/i/152541995/wh…

Even Assad's hometown has signed a similar deal now - though that might be more out of pragmatism and the changed reality on the ground than confidence in the Syrian Salvation Government.

https://x.com/kshaheen/status/1866170886589481134

Now, following Assad's fall, there's been an outpouring of grievances over his rule, even from overt Assad cheerleaders & propagandists. Bashar al-Assad’s sister-in-law posted a picture of the revolutionary Syrian flag on Instagram.
x.com/RaniaKhalek/st…
x.com/kshaheen/statu…

While the rest of the world saw Syria as a ‘frozen-conflict’, Assad and his regime’s poor governance were hollowing out state capacity and institutions, building resentment and the lives of its people were only getting materially worse.

Under the threat of a competent and concerted Opposition offensive and without the support of foreign militaries to help it fight-back more easily, Syrians pushed through this shell and emerged under a revolutionary flag.

If you've made it this far, you might be interested in my 'director's cut' of the article posted in the OP, with more maps graphs and figures. And follow for more.
geospatialdigest.substack.com/p/look-towards…

This also points positively for the future of Syria under a revolutionary government. Despite obviously challenges moving forwards, the new administration has demonstrated a commitment towards competent, responsive and technocratic governance.

This combined with the inflow of refugees back the country suggests that a positive and swift recovery should be possible. Look at the post-war recovery of Lebanon. I'm positive that Syria has the ability to even surpass that.

Some further quotes from a new article by @rayajalabi that demonstrate some of these points wonderfully
ft.com/content/7efc20…