Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 11 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Ukraine has two extremely toxic problems that should have been addressed a long time ago, but never were.

First, there is this pervasive idea that being mobilized into the military is basically a death sentence. Which is entirely untrue.
Second, there is this idea that once mobilized, you can no longer contribute to the economy. This is asinine. Of course they can. There are many models of mobilization that allow people to keep their jobs and continue working while also being trained.
For example, taking people, putting them, through a 30 day boot camp, then training them 1-2 weekend per month thereafter. They would continue to work normally. It would create a reserve force. The territorial defense force that Ukraine wanted to have but never made.
And you know that some percent of people who are trained will want to continue training and will volunteer to enter a more active unit. It would be a win-win.
The idea that mobilizing automatically kills the economy and automatically kills the people mobilized are two completely toxic bullshit arguments that need to go away.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Dec 6
For the people who somehow do not understand Russia’s motivations:

Putin got sad he wasn’t allowed to have a puppet state in Ukraine, so he threatened them to remind the world how powerful Russia is.

It is that simple. Putin is a low IQ thug.
Ironically, through attacking Ukraine, the world has seen how weak Russia is, and as a result Putin has lost sway over basically everything he ever cared about. Especially Syria.
And double especially to Sevastopol. Which Putin sees as the Key to his ambitions. And now he cant even use it because its within missile range.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 28
I believe that the persmision to shoot ATACMs into Russia and the 24 billion dollar aid package for next year both either came from Trump as his idea or were Biden's idea with Trump's blessing.
I also think the escalation that Putin has been attempting to achieve over the past 2 weeks is coming as a result of some backchannel negotiation that went sour between himself and Trump.
In short, I think Putin overplayed his hand and fucked himself.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 23
The news coming from the Velyka Novosilka area is very bad. There is no way to sugar coat it, the area has reached crisis and needs immediate intervention.
In short, Velyka Novosilka is the anchor of the southern defensive line. The line that runs from the Dnipro river to the east towards Donetsk. The Zaporizhzhia line. This west to east defensive line effectively ends in Velyka Novosilka. (note my map hasn't updated for the changes today)Image
Velyka Novosilka itself should have very good defenses, but the defenses are meant to stop attacks from the south, not the north and east. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 22
Russia paying soldiers lump sums is not a method to get people to join the military, paying them is a way to make people not care about how many soldiers die.
Everyone knows soldiers are dying in huge numbers. But the money makes people think it is a gamble, not a tragedy. Nobody cares about a guy who signed up for quick money and died. They see it as quick easy money coming with huge risks and shrug. It is their own fault for joining.
It is simultaneously a lot of money and very little money. It is so much money that if you spent it wisely, you'd be set for life. But it is so little money most people will spend it all in a few weeks.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 10
I just posted a map update, and many parts of the update have been written about by others already. But one interesting tidbit is the advance of Ukraine in Bilohorivka. Image
Image
Here you see a Russian FPV Drone strike hitting a Ukrainian trench. You see that the trench crosses a road and has a hook shape. The trench is of relatively new construction, and cannot be seen on google map, nor other public high resolution images of the area. However, on google earth you can see the relative shape of the terrain (the Z axis is magnified 300% to exaggerate terrain features to make them easier to see. You can see that the trench runs along the crest of a hill. You can see the road it crosses, which is slightly lower than the ridge of the hill, on the reverse slope.

map.ukrdailyupdate.com/?lat=48.939375…Image
Image
Image
On sentinel, which is 10 meter resolution (a very low resolution image with few details), you can see the hook shape of this trench. This image is from October 24th, 2024, which is about 2 weeks ago. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 28
The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.

Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.

To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.

Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Read 5 tweets

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